Intrinsic value of Alaris Royalty Corp. - AD

Previous Close

$20.98

  Intrinsic Value

$14.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

Previous close

$20.98

 
Intrinsic value

$14.75

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  53.09
  53.10
  48.29
  43.96
  40.06
  36.56
  33.40
  30.56
  28.01
  25.71
  23.63
  21.77
  20.09
  18.58
  17.23
  16.00
  14.90
  13.91
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.26
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
Revenue, $m
  124
  190
  282
  405
  568
  775
  1,034
  1,350
  1,728
  2,173
  2,686
  3,271
  3,928
  4,658
  5,460
  6,334
  7,278
  8,291
  9,371
  10,516
  11,725
  12,997
  14,331
  15,726
  17,183
  18,701
  20,282
  21,926
  23,636
  25,413
  27,259
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  84
  125
  180
  252
  344
  459
  599
  767
  965
  1,193
  1,452
  1,744
  2,068
  2,424
  2,812
  3,232
  3,681
  4,161
  4,669
  5,206
  5,771
  6,363
  6,982
  7,629
  8,303
  9,005
  9,735
  10,494
  11,283
  12,103
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  23
  84
  125
  180
  252
  344
  459
  599
  767
  965
  1,193
  1,452
  1,744
  2,068
  2,424
  2,812
  3,232
  3,681
  4,161
  4,669
  5,206
  5,771
  6,363
  6,982
  7,629
  8,303
  9,005
  9,735
  10,494
  11,283
  12,103
Operating income, $m
  101
  106
  157
  225
  316
  431
  575
  751
  961
  1,208
  1,493
  1,819
  2,184
  2,590
  3,036
  3,522
  4,047
  4,610
  5,210
  5,847
  6,519
  7,226
  7,968
  8,744
  9,554
  10,398
  11,277
  12,191
  13,141
  14,129
  15,156
EBITDA, $m
  101
  106
  158
  227
  318
  435
  580
  757
  969
  1,218
  1,506
  1,834
  2,203
  2,612
  3,062
  3,552
  4,082
  4,650
  5,255
  5,897
  6,575
  7,289
  8,037
  8,819
  9,636
  10,488
  11,374
  12,296
  13,255
  14,251
  15,287
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  7
  11
  18
  27
  39
  54
  72
  95
  122
  154
  192
  234
  281
  334
  392
  455
  523
  596
  674
  756
  844
  935
  1,032
  1,132
  1,237
  1,347
  1,461
  1,580
  1,703
  1,831
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  99
  145
  207
  289
  392
  521
  678
  866
  1,085
  1,339
  1,627
  1,950
  2,309
  2,702
  3,130
  3,592
  4,087
  4,614
  5,173
  5,763
  6,383
  7,032
  7,712
  8,421
  9,160
  9,930
  10,730
  11,562
  12,426
  13,325
Tax expense, $m
  19
  27
  39
  56
  78
  106
  141
  183
  234
  293
  362
  439
  527
  623
  730
  845
  970
  1,103
  1,246
  1,397
  1,556
  1,723
  1,899
  2,082
  2,274
  2,473
  2,681
  2,897
  3,122
  3,355
  3,598
Net income, $m
  67
  72
  106
  151
  211
  286
  381
  495
  632
  792
  977
  1,188
  1,424
  1,685
  1,973
  2,285
  2,622
  2,983
  3,368
  3,776
  4,207
  4,659
  5,134
  5,630
  6,147
  6,687
  7,249
  7,833
  8,440
  9,071
  9,727

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  787
  1,158
  1,717
  2,471
  3,461
  4,727
  6,306
  8,233
  10,538
  13,247
  16,378
  19,944
  23,952
  28,403
  33,296
  38,624
  44,381
  50,555
  57,138
  64,120
  71,493
  79,248
  87,381
  95,890
  104,772
  114,030
  123,669
  133,696
  144,121
  154,955
  166,213
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  758
  1,158
  1,717
  2,471
  3,461
  4,727
  6,306
  8,233
  10,538
  13,247
  16,378
  19,944
  23,952
  28,403
  33,296
  38,624
  44,381
  50,555
  57,138
  64,120
  71,493
  79,248
  87,381
  95,890
  104,772
  114,030
  123,669
  133,696
  144,121
  154,955
  166,213
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
Average production assets, $m
  6
  9
  14
  19
  27
  37
  50
  65
  83
  104
  129
  157
  189
  224
  262
  304
  349
  398
  450
  505
  563
  624
  688
  755
  825
  898
  974
  1,052
  1,135
  1,220
  1,308
Working capital, $m
  63
  52
  77
  111
  156
  212
  283
  370
  474
  595
  736
  896
  1,076
  1,276
  1,496
  1,736
  1,994
  2,272
  2,568
  2,881
  3,213
  3,561
  3,927
  4,309
  4,708
  5,124
  5,557
  6,008
  6,476
  6,963
  7,469
Total debt, $m
  99
  168
  266
  397
  569
  789
  1,064
  1,399
  1,801
  2,272
  2,817
  3,437
  4,135
  4,909
  5,760
  6,688
  7,689
  8,764
  9,909
  11,124
  12,407
  13,756
  15,171
  16,652
  18,197
  19,808
  21,485
  23,230
  25,044
  26,929
  28,888
Total liabilities, $m
  133
  201
  299
  430
  602
  822
  1,097
  1,432
  1,834
  2,305
  2,850
  3,470
  4,168
  4,942
  5,793
  6,721
  7,722
  8,797
  9,942
  11,157
  12,440
  13,789
  15,204
  16,685
  18,230
  19,841
  21,518
  23,263
  25,077
  26,962
  28,921
Total equity, $m
  655
  956
  1,418
  2,041
  2,859
  3,904
  5,208
  6,800
  8,705
  10,942
  13,528
  16,474
  19,784
  23,461
  27,502
  31,904
  36,658
  41,759
  47,196
  52,963
  59,053
  65,459
  72,177
  79,205
  86,542
  94,189
  102,151
  110,433
  119,044
  127,992
  137,292
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  788
  1,157
  1,717
  2,471
  3,461
  4,726
  6,305
  8,232
  10,539
  13,247
  16,378
  19,944
  23,952
  28,403
  33,295
  38,625
  44,380
  50,556
  57,138
  64,120
  71,493
  79,248
  87,381
  95,890
  104,772
  114,030
  123,669
  133,696
  144,121
  154,954
  166,213
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.151
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826
  0.826

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  72
  106
  151
  211
  286
  381
  495
  632
  792
  977
  1,188
  1,424
  1,685
  1,973
  2,285
  2,622
  2,983
  3,368
  3,776
  4,207
  4,659
  5,134
  5,630
  6,147
  6,687
  7,249
  7,833
  8,440
  9,071
  9,727
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  73
  107
  153
  213
  290
  385
  502
  640
  803
  990
  1,203
  1,443
  1,708
  1,999
  2,315
  2,657
  3,023
  3,413
  3,827
  4,263
  4,722
  5,202
  5,705
  6,230
  6,777
  7,346
  7,938
  8,554
  9,193
  9,858
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  18
  25
  34
  44
  57
  71
  87
  104
  122
  141
  160
  180
  200
  220
  239
  259
  277
  296
  314
  331
  348
  365
  382
  399
  416
  433
  451
  468
  487
  506
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  55
  82
  119
  169
  233
  315
  415
  537
  681
  850
  1,043
  1,262
  1,508
  1,779
  2,076
  2,398
  2,746
  3,118
  3,513
  3,932
  4,373
  4,837
  5,323
  5,831
  6,361
  6,913
  7,488
  8,085
  8,706
  9,352
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -211
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  51
  77
  112
  159
  221
  298
  395
  512
  651
  815
  1,002
  1,215
  1,454
  1,718
  2,008
  2,323
  2,662
  3,026
  3,413
  3,823
  4,256
  4,711
  5,187
  5,685
  6,205
  6,747
  7,311
  7,898
  8,508
  9,141
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  69
  97
  131
  172
  220
  275
  335
  401
  471
  545
  620
  697
  775
  851
  927
  1,002
  1,074
  1,145
  1,215
  1,283
  1,349
  1,415
  1,480
  1,546
  1,611
  1,677
  1,745
  1,814
  1,885
  1,959
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  258
  356
  472
  607
  759
  924
  1,097
  1,272
  1,445
  1,609
  1,758
  1,887
  1,991
  2,069
  2,116
  2,133
  2,117
  2,069
  1,991
  1,883
  1,747
  1,584
  1,398
  1,189
  960
  713
  449
  170
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  327
  453
  603
  779
  979
  1,199
  1,432
  1,673
  1,916
  2,154
  2,378
  2,584
  2,766
  2,920
  3,043
  3,135
  3,191
  3,214
  3,206
  3,166
  3,096
  2,999
  2,878
  2,735
  2,571
  2,390
  2,194
  1,984
  1,885
  1,959
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  379
  530
  715
  939
  1,200
  1,497
  1,827
  2,186
  2,568
  2,968
  3,380
  3,799
  4,220
  4,638
  5,051
  5,457
  5,853
  6,241
  6,619
  6,989
  7,352
  7,710
  8,066
  8,420
  8,777
  9,138
  9,505
  9,882
  10,393
  11,100
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  22
  -330
  -462
  -623
  -818
  -1,045
  -1,304
  -1,592
  -1,904
  -2,238
  -2,586
  -2,945
  -3,310
  -3,677
  -4,041
  -4,401
  -4,755
  -5,100
  -5,438
  -5,767
  -6,090
  -6,406
  -6,718
  -7,028
  -7,337
  -7,647
  -7,962
  -8,282
  -8,610
  -8,949
  -9,299
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  78
  68
  92
  121
  154
  193
  235
  281
  330
  382
  435
  489
  543
  597
  650
  702
  753
  803
  852
  899
  946
  992
  1,038
  1,083
  1,129
  1,176
  1,223
  1,272
  1,444
  1,801
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  74
  62
  80
  99
  120
  140
  159
  176
  190
  200
  207
  209
  206
  200
  191
  178
  164
  148
  131
  114
  98
  82
  68
  55
  44
  34
  26
  20
  16
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.9
  56.0
  43.6
  34.7
  28.3
  23.5
  19.9
  17.2
  15.0
  13.4
  12.0
  11.0
  10.1
  9.4
  8.8
  8.3
  7.9
  7.6
  7.3
  7.1
  6.9
  6.8
  6.7
  6.6
  6.5
  6.5
  6.5
  6.5
  6.5
  6.5

Alaris Royalty Corp. is a Canada-based company providing capital to private businesses (individually, a Private Company Partner and collectively the Partners). The Company's operations consist of investments in private operating entities in the form of preferred limited partnership interests, preferred interest in limited liability corporations in the United States, or long-term license and royalty arrangements. The Company is an equity provider to service a niche in the capital market, such as steady growth companies with an entrepreneurial management team, incentivized to grow and maintain control of their business. It forms partnerships with private companies where owners want to maintain control of their business (day-to-day operations, corporate culture and long-term objectives). It participates in the business of its Private Company Partners through non-control equity ownership. The Company's subsidiaries include Alaris Cooperatief, U.A. and Alaris USA Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alaris Royalty Corp. (AD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 53.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.1%
Total Debt to Equity 15.1%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 74.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.9%
Operating Margin 81.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 69.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.6%
Net Profit Margin 54%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.3%
Effective Tax Rate 22.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Payout Ratio 88.1%

AD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $124 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alaris Royalty Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alaris Royalty Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 53.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alaris Royalty Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alaris Royalty Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Alaris Royalty Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alaris Royalty Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AD are equal to 4.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alaris Royalty Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AD is equal to 27.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $655 million for Alaris Royalty Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.444 million for Alaris Royalty Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alaris Royalty Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Financial statements of AD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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