Intrinsic value of ARC Resources Ltd. - ARX

Previous Close

$13.74

  Intrinsic Value

$2.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$13.74

 
Intrinsic value

$2.29

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  1,032
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
  1,284
  1,354
  1,427
  1,504
  1,585
  1,669
  1,757
  1,849
  1,946
  2,047
  2,153
  2,264
  2,381
  2,503
  2,631
  2,766
  2,907
  3,054
  3,210
  3,372
  3,543
  3,722
  3,910
  4,108
  4,315
  4,532
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,490
  1,574
  1,662
  1,753
  1,848
  1,948
  2,052
  2,162
  2,276
  2,395
  2,496
  2,627
  2,764
  2,908
  3,059
  3,217
  3,382
  3,556
  3,738
  3,929
  4,129
  4,339
  4,559
  4,791
  5,033
  5,288
  5,555
  5,835
  6,129
  6,438
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,490
  1,574
  1,662
  1,753
  1,848
  1,948
  2,052
  2,162
  2,276
  2,395
  2,496
  2,627
  2,764
  2,908
  3,059
  3,217
  3,382
  3,556
  3,738
  3,929
  4,129
  4,339
  4,559
  4,791
  5,033
  5,288
  5,555
  5,835
  6,129
  6,438
Operating income, $m
  -459
  -483
  -509
  -536
  -565
  -594
  -625
  -657
  -691
  -727
  -739
  -778
  -818
  -861
  -906
  -952
  -1,001
  -1,053
  -1,107
  -1,163
  -1,222
  -1,285
  -1,350
  -1,418
  -1,490
  -1,565
  -1,645
  -1,728
  -1,815
  -1,906
EBITDA, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  153
  164
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  263
  280
  298
  317
  337
  357
  379
  402
  426
  451
Earnings before tax, $m
  -505
  -537
  -570
  -605
  -641
  -678
  -718
  -759
  -802
  -847
  -870
  -919
  -971
  -1,025
  -1,082
  -1,142
  -1,204
  -1,270
  -1,338
  -1,410
  -1,486
  -1,565
  -1,648
  -1,735
  -1,827
  -1,923
  -2,024
  -2,129
  -2,240
  -2,357
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -505
  -537
  -570
  -605
  -641
  -678
  -718
  -759
  -802
  -847
  -870
  -919
  -971
  -1,025
  -1,082
  -1,142
  -1,204
  -1,270
  -1,338
  -1,410
  -1,486
  -1,565
  -1,648
  -1,735
  -1,827
  -1,923
  -2,024
  -2,129
  -2,240
  -2,357

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,637
  5,959
  6,296
  6,647
  7,015
  7,399
  7,800
  8,220
  8,659
  9,119
  9,600
  10,104
  10,632
  11,186
  11,765
  12,373
  13,010
  13,678
  14,378
  15,113
  15,883
  16,691
  17,539
  18,428
  19,361
  20,340
  21,368
  22,446
  23,578
  24,766
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,637
  5,959
  6,296
  6,647
  7,015
  7,399
  7,800
  8,220
  8,659
  9,119
  9,600
  10,104
  10,632
  11,186
  11,765
  12,373
  13,010
  13,678
  14,378
  15,113
  15,883
  16,691
  17,539
  18,428
  19,361
  20,340
  21,368
  22,446
  23,578
  24,766
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
Average production assets, $m
  4,644
  4,910
  5,187
  5,477
  5,779
  6,095
  6,426
  6,772
  7,134
  7,513
  7,909
  8,325
  8,760
  9,215
  9,693
  10,194
  10,719
  11,269
  11,846
  12,451
  13,085
  13,751
  14,450
  15,182
  15,951
  16,758
  17,604
  18,493
  19,425
  20,404
Working capital, $m
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
Total debt, $m
  1,119
  1,267
  1,422
  1,584
  1,754
  1,931
  2,116
  2,309
  2,512
  2,724
  2,946
  3,178
  3,422
  3,677
  3,944
  4,224
  4,518
  4,826
  5,148
  5,487
  5,842
  6,215
  6,605
  7,015
  7,446
  7,897
  8,371
  8,868
  9,389
  9,937
Total liabilities, $m
  2,599
  2,747
  2,902
  3,064
  3,234
  3,411
  3,596
  3,789
  3,992
  4,204
  4,426
  4,658
  4,902
  5,157
  5,424
  5,704
  5,998
  6,306
  6,628
  6,967
  7,322
  7,695
  8,085
  8,495
  8,926
  9,377
  9,851
  10,348
  10,869
  11,417
Total equity, $m
  3,038
  3,212
  3,393
  3,583
  3,781
  3,988
  4,204
  4,430
  4,667
  4,915
  5,175
  5,446
  5,731
  6,029
  6,342
  6,669
  7,012
  7,372
  7,750
  8,146
  8,561
  8,996
  9,453
  9,933
  10,436
  10,964
  11,517
  12,099
  12,709
  13,349
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,637
  5,959
  6,295
  6,647
  7,015
  7,399
  7,800
  8,219
  8,659
  9,119
  9,601
  10,104
  10,633
  11,186
  11,766
  12,373
  13,010
  13,678
  14,378
  15,113
  15,883
  16,691
  17,538
  18,428
  19,362
  20,341
  21,368
  22,447
  23,578
  24,766
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -505
  -537
  -570
  -605
  -641
  -678
  -718
  -759
  -802
  -847
  -870
  -919
  -971
  -1,025
  -1,082
  -1,142
  -1,204
  -1,270
  -1,338
  -1,410
  -1,486
  -1,565
  -1,648
  -1,735
  -1,827
  -1,923
  -2,024
  -2,129
  -2,240
  -2,357
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  459
  484
  510
  537
  565
  594
  625
  658
  692
  727
  739
  778
  819
  861
  906
  953
  1,002
  1,053
  1,107
  1,164
  1,223
  1,285
  1,350
  1,419
  1,491
  1,566
  1,645
  1,728
  1,815
  1,907
Funds from operations, $m
  -47
  -53
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -120
  -130
  -141
  -152
  -164
  -176
  -189
  -202
  -216
  -231
  -247
  -263
  -280
  -298
  -316
  -336
  -357
  -378
  -401
  -425
  -450
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  -51
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -212
  -227
  -242
  -258
  -275
  -292
  -311
  -330
  -351
  -372
  -394
  -418
  -442
  -468
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -410
  -434
  -459
  -485
  -512
  -540
  -570
  -601
  -633
  -667
  -702
  -739
  -778
  -819
  -861
  -906
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,053
  -1,107
  -1,164
  -1,223
  -1,285
  -1,350
  -1,419
  -1,491
  -1,566
  -1,645
  -1,728
  -1,815
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -415
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -698
  -733
  -769
  -807
  -847
  -888
  -932
  -979
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -665
  -700
  -736
  -775
  -815
  -856
  -901
  -947
  -995
  -1,046
  -1,099
  -1,154
  -1,213
  -1,275
  -1,339
  -1,407
  -1,478
  -1,552
  -1,630
  -1,712
  -1,799
  -1,889
  -1,983
  -2,083
  -2,188
  -2,298
  -2,413
  -2,533
  -2,660
  -2,794
Free cash flow, $m
  -716
  -758
  -802
  -848
  -896
  -946
  -999
  -1,054
  -1,112
  -1,173
  -1,237
  -1,303
  -1,373
  -1,447
  -1,524
  -1,605
  -1,690
  -1,779
  -1,872
  -1,970
  -2,073
  -2,181
  -2,294
  -2,413
  -2,538
  -2,669
  -2,807
  -2,951
  -3,103
  -3,262
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  145
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  474
  497
  522
  548
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  679
  711
  752
  794
  839
  885
  934
  985
  1,039
  1,095
  1,129
  1,191
  1,255
  1,323
  1,394
  1,469
  1,547
  1,630
  1,716
  1,806
  1,901
  2,001
  2,105
  2,215
  2,330
  2,451
  2,577
  2,711
  2,850
  2,997
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  824
  860
  907
  956
  1,008
  1,062
  1,119
  1,179
  1,242
  1,307
  1,351
  1,423
  1,498
  1,578
  1,661
  1,749
  1,841
  1,938
  2,039
  2,145
  2,256
  2,374
  2,496
  2,625
  2,760
  2,902
  3,051
  3,208
  3,372
  3,545
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  107
  101
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -679
  -711
  -752
  -794
  -839
  -885
  -934
  -985
  -1,039
  -1,095
  -1,129
  -1,191
  -1,255
  -1,323
  -1,394
  -1,469
  -1,547
  -1,630
  -1,716
  -1,806
  -1,901
  -2,001
  -2,105
  -2,215
  -2,330
  -2,451
  -2,577
  -2,711
  -2,850
  -2,997
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  620
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  48
  -610
  -647
  -686
  -727
  -769
  -814
  -861
  -910
  -961
  -1,015
  -1,071
  -1,130
  -1,192
  -1,257
  -1,325
  -1,396
  -1,471
  -1,549
  -1,632
  -1,718
  -1,809
  -1,904
  -2,003
  -2,108
  -2,218
  -2,333
  -2,454
  -2,581
  -2,715
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  46
  -558
  -563
  -565
  -563
  -558
  -550
  -538
  -523
  -504
  -482
  -457
  -430
  -400
  -369
  -337
  -304
  -271
  -239
  -207
  -178
  -150
  -125
  -102
  -82
  -65
  -50
  -38
  -28
  -20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  85.5
  73.2
  62.7
  53.7
  46.0
  39.4
  33.7
  28.9
  24.7
  21.2
  18.2
  15.6
  13.4
  11.5
  9.8
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.3
  4.6
  3.9
  3.3
  2.9
  2.5
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0

ARC Resources Ltd is a crude oil and natural gas company. It is engaged in the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in Canada with an emphasis on the development of properties with hydrocarbons in place, commonly referred to as resource plays. Its properties, North Pembina Cardium Unit No. 1 (NPCU 1), Berrymoor Cardium Unit and Lindale Cardium Unit, are located in the Pembina Cardium field. Its Ante Creek property is located within the oil prone Montney trend, and produces a mixture of gas, oil and liquids. The Swan Hills property provides exposure to the Slave Point carbonate reef, which produces oil. Its South Central Alberta area includes a range of assets from southern and central Alberta. The Redwater field, located in central Alberta, produces light crude oil. The Company's Dawson Phase III facility is designed for processing capacity of approximately 90 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day and over 7,500 barrels per day of liquids-handling capacity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 2427.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 27.9%
Total Debt to Equity 29.4%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
EBITDA Margin 74.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.2%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 20.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 17.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Payout Ratio 63.7%

ARX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $975 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ARC Resources Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ARC Resources Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ARC Resources Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ARC Resources Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 144.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.8% for ARC Resources Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ARC Resources Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARX are equal to 450.2%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ARC Resources Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARX is equal to 8.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3485 million for ARC Resources Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 353.898 million for ARC Resources Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ARC Resources Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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