Intrinsic value of BioNeutra Global Corporation - BGA

Previous Close

$0.44

  Intrinsic Value

$0.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+62%

Previous close

$0.44

 
Intrinsic value

$0.71

 
Up/down potential

+62%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BGA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  62.16
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
Revenue, $m
  60
  87
  123
  170
  229
  301
  388
  491
  611
  748
  903
  1,075
  1,266
  1,474
  1,699
  1,942
  2,201
  2,476
  2,767
  3,074
  3,396
  3,733
  4,085
  4,452
  4,834
  5,232
  5,646
  6,076
  6,523
  6,987
  7,470
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  78
  111
  152
  205
  269
  347
  439
  545
  668
  806
  959
  1,129
  1,314
  1,515
  1,732
  1,963
  2,208
  2,467
  2,741
  3,028
  3,328
  3,642
  3,970
  4,311
  4,665
  5,034
  5,418
  5,816
  6,230
  6,661
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  55
  78
  111
  152
  205
  269
  347
  439
  545
  668
  806
  959
  1,129
  1,314
  1,515
  1,732
  1,963
  2,208
  2,467
  2,741
  3,028
  3,328
  3,642
  3,970
  4,311
  4,665
  5,034
  5,418
  5,816
  6,230
  6,661
Operating income, $m
  5
  9
  13
  18
  24
  32
  42
  53
  66
  81
  97
  117
  137
  160
  184
  210
  238
  268
  300
  333
  368
  404
  443
  482
  524
  567
  612
  658
  707
  757
  809
EBITDA, $m
  8
  9
  13
  18
  25
  33
  42
  53
  66
  81
  98
  117
  137
  160
  184
  210
  238
  268
  300
  333
  368
  404
  443
  482
  524
  567
  612
  658
  707
  757
  809
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  36
  42
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  8
  11
  16
  21
  27
  35
  45
  55
  68
  81
  97
  114
  133
  153
  174
  197
  221
  247
  274
  302
  331
  362
  394
  428
  463
  499
  537
  576
  616
  659
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  98
  106
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  178
Net income, $m
  1
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  33
  40
  49
  59
  71
  83
  97
  111
  127
  144
  161
  180
  200
  220
  242
  264
  288
  312
  338
  364
  392
  420
  450
  481

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  75
  96
  136
  187
  252
  331
  427
  540
  672
  823
  993
  1,183
  1,393
  1,622
  1,870
  2,136
  2,421
  2,724
  3,044
  3,382
  3,736
  4,106
  4,494
  4,898
  5,318
  5,756
  6,211
  6,684
  7,176
  7,687
  8,218
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  66
  96
  136
  187
  252
  331
  427
  540
  672
  823
  993
  1,183
  1,393
  1,622
  1,870
  2,136
  2,421
  2,724
  3,044
  3,382
  3,736
  4,106
  4,494
  4,898
  5,318
  5,756
  6,211
  6,684
  7,176
  7,687
  8,218
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.909
  0.906
  0.904
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
  0.909
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  34
  44
  62
  85
  114
  151
  194
  246
  305
  374
  451
  538
  633
  737
  850
  971
  1,100
  1,238
  1,384
  1,537
  1,698
  1,866
  2,042
  2,226
  2,417
  2,616
  2,823
  3,038
  3,261
  3,494
  3,735
Total debt, $m
  38
  46
  68
  97
  133
  178
  232
  295
  369
  454
  549
  656
  773
  902
  1,041
  1,190
  1,350
  1,520
  1,700
  1,889
  2,088
  2,296
  2,513
  2,740
  2,976
  3,221
  3,476
  3,742
  4,018
  4,304
  4,602
Total liabilities, $m
  46
  54
  76
  105
  141
  186
  240
  303
  377
  462
  557
  664
  781
  910
  1,049
  1,198
  1,358
  1,528
  1,708
  1,897
  2,096
  2,304
  2,521
  2,748
  2,984
  3,229
  3,484
  3,750
  4,026
  4,312
  4,610
Total equity, $m
  29
  42
  60
  82
  111
  145
  188
  237
  295
  361
  436
  519
  611
  712
  821
  938
  1,063
  1,196
  1,336
  1,484
  1,640
  1,803
  1,973
  2,150
  2,335
  2,527
  2,727
  2,934
  3,150
  3,374
  3,608
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  75
  96
  136
  187
  252
  331
  428
  540
  672
  823
  993
  1,183
  1,392
  1,622
  1,870
  2,136
  2,421
  2,724
  3,044
  3,381
  3,736
  4,107
  4,494
  4,898
  5,319
  5,756
  6,211
  6,684
  7,176
  7,686
  8,218
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.310
  1.090
  1.140
  1.180
  1.210
  1.220
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  33
  40
  49
  59
  71
  83
  97
  111
  127
  144
  161
  180
  200
  220
  242
  264
  288
  312
  338
  364
  392
  420
  450
  481
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  26
  33
  41
  50
  60
  71
  83
  97
  111
  127
  144
  161
  180
  200
  220
  242
  264
  288
  312
  338
  364
  392
  420
  450
  481
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  44
  51
  60
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  121
  130
  138
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -7
  -1
  6
  14
  24
  34
  46
  59
  73
  88
  104
  121
  139
  157
  177
  197
  218
  239
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -17
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -7
  -1
  6
  14
  24
  34
  46
  59
  73
  88
  104
  121
  139
  157
  177
  197
  218
  239
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  17
  22
  29
  36
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  96
  107
  118
  128
  139
  150
  160
  170
  180
  189
  199
  208
  217
  227
  236
  246
  255
  265
  276
  287
  298
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  11
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  16
  17
  17
  17
  15
  12
  9
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  24
  31
  40
  49
  60
  70
  81
  91
  102
  111
  119
  127
  132
  139
  150
  160
  170
  180
  189
  199
  208
  217
  227
  236
  246
  255
  265
  276
  287
  298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  17
  22
  29
  36
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  93
  104
  114
  125
  138
  155
  174
  194
  214
  236
  258
  281
  306
  331
  357
  384
  413
  442
  473
  504
  537
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -224
  -233
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  29
  38
  49
  61
  74
  88
  103
  119
  136
  154
  172
  192
  213
  234
  257
  280
  304
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.4
  55.9
  44.1
  35.9
  30.1
  26.0
  23.0
  20.8
  19.2
  18.1
  17.4
  17.0
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9
  16.9

Distinct Infrastructure Group Inc., formerly QE2 Acquisition Corp., is a utility and telecom infrastructure contractor with capabilities in design, engineering, construction, service and maintenance, and materials management. The Company focuses on the Ontario and Alberta economic landscape of opportunity in infrastructure, utilities and telecommunication. Its services include aerial construction, underground construction, technical services and 3rd party material management. Its aerial construction services include pole installation/removal, new stand placement, cable removal and strapping, and lash/overlash cabling. Its underground construction services include directional drilling, hydro excavation and placing cables. Its technical services include fiber splicing and co-axial copper splicing and testing. Its 3rd party material management services include inventory warehousing and inventory management. Its subsidiaries include DistinctTech Inc. and Candesto Enterprises Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioNeutra Global Corporation (BGA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 62.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 82.8%
Total Debt to Equity 131%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -37%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.2%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 209.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.1%
EBITDA Margin 6.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

BGA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BGA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $60 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioNeutra Global Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BioNeutra Global Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BGA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 45.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for BGA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioNeutra Global Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioNeutra Global Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BGA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BGA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for BioNeutra Global Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioNeutra Global Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BGA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BGA are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioNeutra Global Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BGA is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $29 million for BioNeutra Global Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.417 million for BioNeutra Global Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioNeutra Global Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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