Intrinsic value of Birchcliff Energy Ltd. - BIR

Previous Close

$3.35

  Intrinsic Value

$1.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-50%

Previous close

$3.35

 
Intrinsic value

$1.66

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.59
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  317
  380
  451
  528
  612
  703
  801
  904
  1,014
  1,131
  1,253
  1,381
  1,515
  1,655
  1,801
  1,953
  2,111
  2,275
  2,446
  2,623
  2,807
  2,999
  3,198
  3,405
  3,621
  3,845
  4,079
  4,322
  4,576
  4,841
  5,117
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  342
  405
  475
  550
  632
  720
  813
  912
  1,016
  1,126
  1,242
  1,362
  1,488
  1,619
  1,756
  1,898
  2,045
  2,199
  2,358
  2,524
  2,696
  2,875
  3,061
  3,255
  3,457
  3,667
  3,886
  4,114
  4,352
  4,600
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  294
  342
  405
  475
  550
  632
  720
  813
  912
  1,016
  1,126
  1,242
  1,362
  1,488
  1,619
  1,756
  1,898
  2,045
  2,199
  2,358
  2,524
  2,696
  2,875
  3,061
  3,255
  3,457
  3,667
  3,886
  4,114
  4,352
  4,600
Operating income, $m
  23
  38
  46
  53
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  114
  127
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  388
  412
  437
  462
  489
  517
EBITDA, $m
  172
  217
  257
  301
  349
  401
  457
  516
  579
  645
  715
  788
  865
  944
  1,028
  1,114
  1,204
  1,298
  1,396
  1,497
  1,602
  1,711
  1,825
  1,943
  2,066
  2,194
  2,327
  2,466
  2,611
  2,762
  2,920
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  29
  38
  49
  61
  73
  87
  102
  117
  134
  151
  170
  189
  209
  231
  253
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  404
  433
  463
  495
  527
  561
  596
  633
  671
  711
Earnings before tax, $m
  -30
  10
  7
  4
  1
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -194
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -194

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,710
  3,251
  3,853
  4,514
  5,233
  6,009
  6,842
  7,730
  8,671
  9,664
  10,709
  11,804
  12,950
  14,146
  15,393
  16,691
  18,041
  19,445
  20,903
  22,419
  23,994
  25,632
  27,334
  29,104
  30,946
  32,864
  34,861
  36,942
  39,111
  41,374
  43,735
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,710
  3,251
  3,853
  4,514
  5,233
  6,009
  6,842
  7,730
  8,671
  9,664
  10,709
  11,804
  12,950
  14,146
  15,393
  16,691
  18,041
  19,445
  20,903
  22,419
  23,994
  25,632
  27,334
  29,104
  30,946
  32,864
  34,861
  36,942
  39,111
  41,374
  43,735
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  2,323
  2,787
  3,302
  3,869
  4,485
  5,151
  5,865
  6,625
  7,432
  8,283
  9,179
  10,118
  11,100
  12,126
  13,194
  14,307
  15,464
  16,667
  17,917
  19,216
  20,566
  21,970
  23,429
  24,946
  26,525
  28,169
  29,881
  31,664
  33,524
  35,463
  37,487
Working capital, $m
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -94
  -106
  -119
  -132
  -147
  -162
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -247
  -266
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -351
  -374
  -398
  -424
  -450
  -477
  -506
  -535
  -566
  -599
Total debt, $m
  573
  765
  977
  1,210
  1,464
  1,738
  2,032
  2,346
  2,678
  3,028
  3,397
  3,784
  4,188
  4,611
  5,051
  5,509
  5,985
  6,481
  6,996
  7,531
  8,087
  8,665
  9,266
  9,891
  10,541
  11,218
  11,923
  12,658
  13,423
  14,222
  15,055
Total liabilities, $m
  956
  1,148
  1,360
  1,593
  1,847
  2,121
  2,415
  2,729
  3,061
  3,411
  3,780
  4,167
  4,571
  4,994
  5,434
  5,892
  6,368
  6,864
  7,379
  7,914
  8,470
  9,048
  9,649
  10,274
  10,924
  11,601
  12,306
  13,041
  13,806
  14,605
  15,438
Total equity, $m
  1,754
  2,104
  2,493
  2,920
  3,386
  3,888
  4,427
  5,001
  5,610
  6,253
  6,929
  7,637
  8,379
  9,153
  9,959
  10,799
  11,673
  12,581
  13,524
  14,505
  15,524
  16,584
  17,685
  18,830
  20,022
  21,263
  22,555
  23,901
  25,305
  26,769
  28,296
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,710
  3,252
  3,853
  4,513
  5,233
  6,009
  6,842
  7,730
  8,671
  9,664
  10,709
  11,804
  12,950
  14,147
  15,393
  16,691
  18,041
  19,445
  20,903
  22,419
  23,994
  25,632
  27,334
  29,104
  30,946
  32,864
  34,861
  36,942
  39,111
  41,374
  43,734
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.327
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -194
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  149
  179
  212
  248
  288
  330
  376
  425
  476
  531
  588
  649
  712
  777
  846
  917
  991
  1,068
  1,149
  1,232
  1,318
  1,408
  1,502
  1,599
  1,700
  1,806
  1,915
  2,030
  2,149
  2,273
  2,403
Funds from operations, $m
  98
  186
  217
  251
  288
  328
  370
  414
  462
  511
  564
  618
  675
  735
  797
  862
  929
  999
  1,071
  1,147
  1,225
  1,307
  1,392
  1,480
  1,572
  1,667
  1,766
  1,870
  1,978
  2,091
  2,209
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  141
  193
  225
  260
  298
  339
  381
  427
  474
  525
  578
  633
  691
  751
  814
  880
  947
  1,018
  1,091
  1,168
  1,247
  1,329
  1,415
  1,504
  1,597
  1,693
  1,794
  1,899
  2,008
  2,122
  2,241
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -149
  -179
  -212
  -248
  -288
  -330
  -376
  -425
  -476
  -531
  -588
  -649
  -712
  -777
  -846
  -917
  -991
  -1,068
  -1,149
  -1,232
  -1,318
  -1,408
  -1,502
  -1,599
  -1,700
  -1,806
  -1,915
  -2,030
  -2,149
  -2,273
New CAPEX, $m
  -783
  -464
  -516
  -566
  -616
  -666
  -714
  -761
  -807
  -851
  -896
  -939
  -982
  -1,025
  -1,069
  -1,112
  -1,157
  -1,203
  -1,250
  -1,299
  -1,350
  -1,403
  -1,459
  -1,518
  -1,579
  -1,644
  -1,712
  -1,784
  -1,859
  -1,939
  -2,024
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -754
  -613
  -695
  -778
  -864
  -954
  -1,044
  -1,137
  -1,232
  -1,327
  -1,427
  -1,527
  -1,631
  -1,737
  -1,846
  -1,958
  -2,074
  -2,194
  -2,318
  -2,448
  -2,582
  -2,721
  -2,867
  -3,020
  -3,178
  -3,344
  -3,518
  -3,699
  -3,889
  -4,088
  -4,297
Free cash flow, $m
  -613
  -420
  -469
  -518
  -566
  -615
  -663
  -710
  -757
  -803
  -849
  -894
  -940
  -985
  -1,032
  -1,079
  -1,127
  -1,176
  -1,227
  -1,280
  -1,335
  -1,392
  -1,452
  -1,515
  -1,581
  -1,651
  -1,724
  -1,800
  -1,881
  -1,966
  -2,056
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -50
  192
  212
  233
  254
  274
  294
  313
  332
  351
  369
  387
  404
  422
  440
  458
  477
  495
  515
  535
  556
  578
  601
  625
  650
  677
  705
  735
  766
  799
  833
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  698
  342
  384
  424
  464
  505
  545
  585
  624
  662
  701
  739
  778
  816
  855
  895
  936
  978
  1,021
  1,066
  1,112
  1,161
  1,212
  1,265
  1,321
  1,379
  1,441
  1,506
  1,574
  1,646
  1,722
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  621
  534
  596
  657
  718
  779
  839
  898
  956
  1,013
  1,070
  1,126
  1,182
  1,238
  1,295
  1,353
  1,413
  1,473
  1,536
  1,601
  1,668
  1,739
  1,813
  1,890
  1,971
  2,056
  2,146
  2,241
  2,340
  2,445
  2,555
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  114
  127
  140
  152
  164
  176
  188
  199
  210
  221
  232
  242
  253
  264
  274
  286
  297
  308
  321
  333
  346
  360
  374
  390
  406
  422
  440
  459
  479
  499
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -656
  -350
  -389
  -428
  -465
  -505
  -545
  -585
  -624
  -662
  -701
  -739
  -778
  -816
  -855
  -895
  -936
  -978
  -1,021
  -1,066
  -1,112
  -1,161
  -1,212
  -1,265
  -1,321
  -1,379
  -1,441
  -1,506
  -1,574
  -1,646
  -1,722
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -235
  -262
  -288
  -313
  -340
  -369
  -397
  -425
  -452
  -480
  -507
  -535
  -563
  -592
  -621
  -650
  -681
  -712
  -745
  -779
  -815
  -852
  -890
  -931
  -974
  -1,019
  -1,066
  -1,115
  -1,168
  -1,223
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -223
  -234
  -241
  -245
  -246
  -245
  -241
  -234
  -224
  -212
  -197
  -182
  -166
  -149
  -132
  -115
  -99
  -84
  -70
  -58
  -47
  -37
  -29
  -22
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.2
  62.0
  49.9
  40.7
  33.5
  27.9
  23.5
  19.9
  17.1
  14.7
  12.8
  11.1
  9.8
  8.6
  7.6
  6.8
  6.1
  5.4
  4.9
  4.4
  4.0
  3.6
  3.3
  3.0
  2.7
  2.5
  2.3
  2.1
  1.9
  1.7

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. is an intermediate oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in the exploration for and the development, production and acquisition of petroleum and natural gas reserves in Western Canada. Its operations are concentrated within core area, the Peace River Arch, which is centered over 90 kilometers northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta, adjacent to the Alberta/British Columbia border. It is focused on over two established resource plays within the Peace River Arch: the Montney/Doig Natural Gas Resource Play and the Charlie Lake Light Oil Resource Play. The Montney/Doig Natural Gas Resource Play contains over five producing regions, including Pouce Coupe, Pouce Coupe South, Progress, Gordondale and Elmworth. The Charlie Lake reservoirs consist of varying quantities of laminated and dolomitic, silty to fine-grained sandstones. It has over 60 horizontal wells utilizing multi-stage fracture stimulation technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -36.9
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 203.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 32.7%
Total Debt to Equity 32.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital -1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity -1.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80%
EBITDA Margin 47%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.2%
Operating Margin 7.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin -7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.3%
Payout Ratio -33.3%

BIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $317 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Birchcliff Energy Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Birchcliff Energy Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for BIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Birchcliff Energy Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Birchcliff Energy Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Birchcliff Energy Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Birchcliff Energy Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BIR are equal to 732.6%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Birchcliff Energy Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BIR is equal to -11.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1754 million for Birchcliff Energy Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 263.636 million for Birchcliff Energy Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Birchcliff Energy Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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Financial statements of BIR
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