Intrinsic value of Boralex Inc. Class A Shares - BLX

Previous Close

$20.87

  Intrinsic Value

$79.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+283%

Previous close

$20.87

 
Intrinsic value

$79.95

 
Up/down potential

+283%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.40
  33.26
  30.43
  27.89
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
Revenue, $m
  412
  549
  716
  916
  1,150
  1,421
  1,729
  2,075
  2,459
  2,882
  3,341
  3,837
  4,370
  4,937
  5,538
  6,173
  6,841
  7,541
  8,274
  9,039
  9,836
  10,665
  11,528
  12,426
  13,358
  14,327
  15,334
  16,381
  17,469
  18,601
Variable operating expenses, $m
  312
  411
  533
  678
  848
  1,045
  1,269
  1,521
  1,800
  2,107
  2,429
  2,790
  3,176
  3,589
  4,026
  4,488
  4,973
  5,482
  6,015
  6,571
  7,150
  7,753
  8,380
  9,033
  9,711
  10,415
  11,147
  11,908
  12,699
  13,522
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  312
  411
  533
  678
  848
  1,045
  1,269
  1,521
  1,800
  2,107
  2,429
  2,790
  3,176
  3,589
  4,026
  4,488
  4,973
  5,482
  6,015
  6,571
  7,150
  7,753
  8,380
  9,033
  9,711
  10,415
  11,147
  11,908
  12,699
  13,522
Operating income, $m
  100
  137
  183
  238
  302
  376
  460
  554
  659
  774
  912
  1,048
  1,193
  1,348
  1,512
  1,686
  1,868
  2,059
  2,259
  2,468
  2,686
  2,912
  3,148
  3,393
  3,648
  3,912
  4,187
  4,473
  4,770
  5,079
EBITDA, $m
  229
  305
  398
  510
  640
  791
  962
  1,155
  1,369
  1,603
  1,859
  2,135
  2,432
  2,747
  3,082
  3,435
  3,807
  4,196
  4,604
  5,030
  5,473
  5,935
  6,415
  6,914
  7,433
  7,972
  8,533
  9,115
  9,721
  10,351
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  70
  101
  140
  188
  245
  312
  389
  477
  576
  686
  807
  938
  1,080
  1,232
  1,394
  1,566
  1,747
  1,938
  2,139
  2,348
  2,566
  2,794
  3,031
  3,278
  3,535
  3,801
  4,078
  4,366
  4,665
  4,976
Earnings before tax, $m
  30
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  71
  77
  83
  89
  106
  110
  113
  116
  118
  120
  121
  121
  121
  120
  119
  118
  117
  115
  113
  111
  109
  107
  105
  103
Tax expense, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  32
  32
  32
  31
  31
  31
  30
  29
  29
  28
  28
Net income, $m
  22
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  65
  77
  80
  83
  85
  86
  87
  88
  88
  88
  88
  87
  86
  85
  84
  82
  81
  80
  78
  77
  75

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,039
  5,382
  7,020
  8,977
  11,276
  13,930
  16,951
  20,345
  24,112
  28,251
  32,756
  37,622
  42,839
  48,400
  54,297
  60,522
  67,070
  73,936
  81,117
  88,613
  96,427
  104,561
  113,023
  121,819
  130,961
  140,461
  150,334
  160,596
  171,265
  182,361
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,039
  5,382
  7,020
  8,977
  11,276
  13,930
  16,951
  20,345
  24,112
  28,251
  32,756
  37,622
  42,839
  48,400
  54,297
  60,522
  67,070
  73,936
  81,117
  88,613
  96,427
  104,561
  113,023
  121,819
  130,961
  140,461
  150,334
  160,596
  171,265
  182,361
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  584
  778
  1,015
  1,298
  1,630
  2,013
  2,450
  2,941
  3,485
  4,083
  4,734
  5,438
  6,192
  6,995
  7,848
  8,748
  9,694
  10,686
  11,724
  12,808
  13,937
  15,113
  16,336
  17,607
  18,928
  20,301
  21,728
  23,212
  24,754
  26,357
Working capital, $m
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -61
  -74
  -89
  -106
  -124
  -144
  -165
  -188
  -212
  -238
  -265
  -294
  -324
  -356
  -389
  -423
  -459
  -496
  -534
  -574
  -616
  -659
  -704
  -751
  -800
Total debt, $m
  2,876
  3,995
  5,359
  6,990
  8,905
  11,116
  13,632
  16,459
  19,597
  23,045
  26,798
  30,851
  35,197
  39,829
  44,741
  49,927
  55,381
  61,100
  67,082
  73,327
  79,836
  86,612
  93,660
  100,987
  108,603
  116,516
  124,740
  133,288
  142,175
  151,419
Total liabilities, $m
  3,364
  4,483
  5,847
  7,478
  9,393
  11,604
  14,120
  16,947
  20,085
  23,533
  27,286
  31,339
  35,685
  40,317
  45,229
  50,415
  55,869
  61,588
  67,570
  73,815
  80,324
  87,100
  94,148
  101,475
  109,091
  117,004
  125,228
  133,776
  142,663
  151,907
Total equity, $m
  674
  899
  1,172
  1,499
  1,883
  2,326
  2,831
  3,398
  4,027
  4,718
  5,470
  6,283
  7,154
  8,083
  9,068
  10,107
  11,201
  12,347
  13,547
  14,798
  16,103
  17,462
  18,875
  20,344
  21,871
  23,457
  25,106
  26,819
  28,601
  30,454
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,038
  5,382
  7,019
  8,977
  11,276
  13,930
  16,951
  20,345
  24,112
  28,251
  32,756
  37,622
  42,839
  48,400
  54,297
  60,522
  67,070
  73,935
  81,117
  88,613
  96,427
  104,562
  113,023
  121,819
  130,962
  140,461
  150,334
  160,595
  171,264
  182,361
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.260
  4.450
  4.570
  4.660
  4.730
  4.780
  4.820
  4.840
  4.870
  4.880
  4.900
  4.910
  4.920
  4.930
  4.930
  4.940
  4.940
  4.950
  4.950
  4.960
  4.960
  4.960
  4.960
  4.960
  4.970
  4.970
  4.970
  4.970
  4.970
  4.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  22
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  65
  77
  80
  83
  85
  86
  87
  88
  88
  88
  88
  87
  86
  85
  84
  82
  81
  80
  78
  77
  75
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  129
  168
  215
  272
  338
  415
  502
  601
  709
  829
  947
  1,088
  1,238
  1,399
  1,570
  1,750
  1,939
  2,137
  2,345
  2,562
  2,787
  3,023
  3,267
  3,521
  3,786
  4,060
  4,346
  4,642
  4,951
  5,271
Funds from operations, $m
  151
  195
  247
  308
  380
  462
  554
  657
  770
  894
  1,024
  1,168
  1,321
  1,484
  1,656
  1,837
  2,027
  2,226
  2,433
  2,649
  2,874
  3,109
  3,352
  3,605
  3,868
  4,141
  4,425
  4,720
  5,027
  5,347
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Cash from operations, $m
  156
  201
  254
  317
  390
  473
  567
  672
  787
  912
  1,044
  1,189
  1,344
  1,508
  1,682
  1,864
  2,056
  2,256
  2,464
  2,682
  2,909
  3,144
  3,389
  3,644
  3,908
  4,183
  4,469
  4,765
  5,074
  5,395
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -117
  -156
  -203
  -260
  -326
  -403
  -490
  -588
  -697
  -817
  -947
  -1,088
  -1,238
  -1,399
  -1,570
  -1,750
  -1,939
  -2,137
  -2,345
  -2,562
  -2,787
  -3,023
  -3,267
  -3,521
  -3,786
  -4,060
  -4,346
  -4,642
  -4,951
New CAPEX, $m
  -156
  -194
  -237
  -283
  -332
  -384
  -437
  -490
  -544
  -598
  -651
  -703
  -754
  -804
  -852
  -900
  -946
  -992
  -1,038
  -1,084
  -1,129
  -1,176
  -1,223
  -1,271
  -1,321
  -1,373
  -1,427
  -1,483
  -1,542
  -1,604
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -242
  -311
  -393
  -486
  -592
  -710
  -840
  -980
  -1,132
  -1,295
  -1,468
  -1,650
  -1,842
  -2,042
  -2,251
  -2,470
  -2,696
  -2,931
  -3,175
  -3,429
  -3,691
  -3,963
  -4,246
  -4,538
  -4,842
  -5,159
  -5,487
  -5,829
  -6,184
  -6,555
Free cash flow, $m
  -85
  -110
  -138
  -169
  -202
  -236
  -272
  -309
  -346
  -383
  -424
  -461
  -498
  -534
  -570
  -605
  -640
  -675
  -711
  -746
  -782
  -819
  -856
  -895
  -934
  -976
  -1,019
  -1,063
  -1,110
  -1,159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  886
  1,119
  1,364
  1,631
  1,915
  2,211
  2,517
  2,827
  3,138
  3,448
  3,753
  4,053
  4,346
  4,632
  4,912
  5,186
  5,454
  5,719
  5,982
  6,245
  6,509
  6,776
  7,048
  7,327
  7,615
  7,914
  8,224
  8,548
  8,887
  9,243
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  156
  197
  242
  290
  342
  397
  453
  510
  568
  627
  675
  732
  789
  844
  898
  952
  1,005
  1,058
  1,111
  1,164
  1,218
  1,272
  1,328
  1,385
  1,444
  1,505
  1,569
  1,636
  1,705
  1,778
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,042
  1,316
  1,606
  1,921
  2,257
  2,608
  2,970
  3,337
  3,706
  4,075
  4,428
  4,785
  5,135
  5,476
  5,810
  6,138
  6,459
  6,777
  7,093
  7,409
  7,727
  8,048
  8,376
  8,712
  9,059
  9,419
  9,793
  10,184
  10,592
  11,021
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  957
  1,206
  1,468
  1,752
  2,055
  2,372
  2,697
  3,028
  3,360
  3,691
  4,004
  4,324
  4,637
  4,943
  5,241
  5,533
  5,819
  6,102
  6,382
  6,663
  6,944
  7,229
  7,520
  7,818
  8,125
  8,443
  8,774
  9,120
  9,482
  9,862
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -178
  -224
  -274
  -327
  -384
  -443
  -505
  -567
  -629
  -691
  -752
  -813
  -871
  -929
  -985
  -1,040
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,199
  -1,252
  -1,305
  -1,358
  -1,413
  -1,469
  -1,527
  -1,587
  -1,649
  -1,714
  -1,782
  -1,853
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  779
  982
  1,195
  1,425
  1,671
  1,928
  2,193
  2,462
  2,731
  3,000
  3,252
  3,512
  3,766
  4,014
  4,256
  4,493
  4,726
  4,955
  5,183
  5,411
  5,639
  5,871
  6,107
  6,349
  6,598
  6,857
  7,126
  7,406
  7,700
  8,009
Discount rate, %
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  698
  780
  833
  861
  864
  842
  798
  734
  658
  573
  485
  400
  322
  252
  191
  142
  102
  71
  48
  32
  20
  12
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.1
  83.4
  77.0
  71.4
  66.7
  62.6
  59.0
  55.9
  53.1
  50.6
  48.5
  46.5
  44.8
  43.2
  41.7
  40.4
  39.2
  38.1
  37.0
  36.1
  35.2
  34.3
  33.5
  32.8
  32.1
  31.4
  30.7
  30.1
  29.5
  29.0

Boralex Inc. is a power producer that develops, constructs and operates renewable energy power stations. The Company's segments include wind, hydroelectric, thermal and solar. It operates an asset base with a capacity of approximately 1,260 megawatts (MW), of which over 1,090 MW are under its control, consisting of approximately 490 MW in Canada, over 520 MW in France and over 80 MW in the Northeastern United States. It operates approximately 870 MW wind power portfolio of assets in France and Canada. It also owns the rights to portfolio of wind power projects in France. It is also a wind power operator in Canada with an installed capacity of approximately 550 MW in Quebec and Ontario. It owns over two thermal power stations with a total installed capacity of approximately 50 MW, consisting of over 30 MW wood-residue power station in Quebec and approximately 10 MW natural gas cogeneration power station in France. It operates over three solar power facilities in France and in Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boralex Inc. Class A Shares (BLX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -682.1
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -18.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 390.5%
Total Debt to Equity 423.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.6%
EBITDA Margin 57.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55%
Operating Margin 22.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Net Profit Margin -0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 128.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.7%
Payout Ratio -1800%

BLX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $302 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boralex Inc. Class A Shares. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Boralex Inc. Class A Shares. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for BLX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boralex Inc. Class A Shares, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boralex Inc. Class A Shares.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Boralex Inc. Class A Shares.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boralex Inc. Class A Shares. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLX are equal to 141.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boralex Inc. Class A Shares operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLX is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $496 million for Boralex Inc. Class A Shares - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 76.17 million for Boralex Inc. Class A Shares is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boralex Inc. Class A Shares at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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