Intrinsic value of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V - CCA

Previous Close

$90.16

  Intrinsic Value

$72.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$90.16

 
Intrinsic value

$72.92

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.51
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  2,176
  2,276
  2,382
  2,493
  2,610
  2,734
  2,864
  3,002
  3,146
  3,298
  3,457
  3,626
  3,802
  3,988
  4,183
  4,389
  4,605
  4,831
  5,070
  5,320
  5,583
  5,860
  6,150
  6,455
  6,776
  7,112
  7,466
  7,837
  8,227
  8,637
  9,067
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,741
  1,817
  1,897
  1,981
  2,070
  2,163
  2,262
  2,366
  2,475
  2,589
  2,604
  2,731
  2,864
  3,005
  3,152
  3,307
  3,470
  3,641
  3,821
  4,010
  4,209
  4,417
  4,636
  4,867
  5,108
  5,362
  5,629
  5,909
  6,203
  6,513
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,160
  1,741
  1,817
  1,897
  1,981
  2,070
  2,163
  2,262
  2,366
  2,475
  2,589
  2,604
  2,731
  2,864
  3,005
  3,152
  3,307
  3,470
  3,641
  3,821
  4,010
  4,209
  4,417
  4,636
  4,867
  5,108
  5,362
  5,629
  5,909
  6,203
  6,513
Operating income, $m
  16
  535
  565
  596
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  823
  868
  1,022
  1,071
  1,124
  1,179
  1,237
  1,297
  1,361
  1,428
  1,499
  1,573
  1,651
  1,733
  1,819
  1,909
  2,004
  2,104
  2,208
  2,318
  2,434
  2,555
EBITDA, $m
  514
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,156
  1,211
  1,269
  1,329
  1,393
  1,461
  1,531
  1,606
  1,684
  1,766
  1,853
  1,944
  2,039
  2,140
  2,245
  2,356
  2,473
  2,595
  2,724
  2,859
  3,001
  3,150
  3,307
  3,471
  3,644
  3,825
  4,016
Interest expense (income), $m
  134
  122
  130
  138
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  364
  384
  405
  428
  451
  476
  501
  529
  557
  587
  619
Earnings before tax, $m
  -120
  413
  435
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  626
  660
  801
  838
  877
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,102
  1,155
  1,209
  1,267
  1,328
  1,391
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
  1,761
  1,846
  1,936
Tax expense, $m
  70
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  161
  169
  178
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  499
  523
Net income, $m
  -190
  301
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  412
  434
  457
  482
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  925
  969
  1,016
  1,064
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
  1,348
  1,413

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,333
  5,511
  5,767
  6,037
  6,321
  6,620
  6,936
  7,268
  7,617
  7,985
  8,372
  8,779
  9,206
  9,656
  10,129
  10,627
  11,149
  11,698
  12,275
  12,882
  13,519
  14,188
  14,892
  15,630
  16,406
  17,221
  18,078
  18,977
  19,921
  20,913
  21,955
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,271
  5,511
  5,767
  6,037
  6,321
  6,620
  6,936
  7,268
  7,617
  7,985
  8,372
  8,779
  9,206
  9,656
  10,129
  10,627
  11,149
  11,698
  12,275
  12,882
  13,519
  14,188
  14,892
  15,630
  16,406
  17,221
  18,078
  18,977
  19,921
  20,913
  21,955
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
Average production assets, $m
  3,085
  3,228
  3,377
  3,535
  3,702
  3,877
  4,062
  4,256
  4,461
  4,676
  4,903
  5,141
  5,392
  5,655
  5,932
  6,223
  6,529
  6,851
  7,189
  7,544
  7,917
  8,309
  8,721
  9,154
  9,608
  10,085
  10,587
  11,113
  11,666
  12,247
  12,857
Working capital, $m
  -267
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -456
  -479
  -502
  -527
  -553
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -670
  -703
  -738
  -775
  -813
  -853
  -896
  -940
  -987
  -1,036
  -1,088
Total debt, $m
  2,905
  3,019
  3,208
  3,407
  3,617
  3,838
  4,070
  4,315
  4,573
  4,845
  5,130
  5,431
  5,746
  6,078
  6,427
  6,794
  7,180
  7,585
  8,011
  8,459
  8,929
  9,423
  9,942
  10,487
  11,060
  11,661
  12,293
  12,957
  13,654
  14,386
  15,155
Total liabilities, $m
  3,953
  4,067
  4,256
  4,455
  4,665
  4,886
  5,118
  5,363
  5,621
  5,893
  6,178
  6,479
  6,794
  7,126
  7,475
  7,842
  8,228
  8,633
  9,059
  9,507
  9,977
  10,471
  10,990
  11,535
  12,108
  12,709
  13,341
  14,005
  14,702
  15,434
  16,203
Total equity, $m
  1,380
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
  1,656
  1,734
  1,817
  1,904
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,300
  2,412
  2,530
  2,654
  2,784
  2,921
  3,065
  3,216
  3,375
  3,542
  3,717
  3,902
  4,095
  4,298
  4,512
  4,736
  4,972
  5,219
  5,479
  5,752
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,333
  5,511
  5,767
  6,037
  6,321
  6,620
  6,935
  7,267
  7,617
  7,985
  8,371
  8,779
  9,206
  9,656
  10,129
  10,626
  11,149
  11,698
  12,275
  12,882
  13,519
  14,188
  14,892
  15,630
  16,406
  17,221
  18,077
  18,977
  19,921
  20,913
  21,955
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.105
  2.090
  2.120
  2.150
  2.180
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.290
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
  2.420
  2.440
  2.460
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.520
  2.530
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.630
  2.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.258
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -190
  301
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  412
  434
  457
  482
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  925
  969
  1,016
  1,064
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
  1,348
  1,413
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  498
  473
  490
  508
  527
  547
  568
  590
  613
  637
  663
  584
  613
  643
  674
  707
  742
  779
  817
  857
  900
  944
  991
  1,040
  1,092
  1,146
  1,203
  1,263
  1,326
  1,392
  1,461
Funds from operations, $m
  512
  774
  808
  842
  879
  918
  959
  1,002
  1,047
  1,095
  1,145
  1,169
  1,224
  1,283
  1,344
  1,408
  1,476
  1,547
  1,622
  1,700
  1,783
  1,869
  1,960
  2,056
  2,156
  2,262
  2,373
  2,489
  2,611
  2,740
  2,875
Change in working capital, $m
  -233
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Cash from operations, $m
  745
  786
  820
  856
  893
  933
  975
  1,018
  1,064
  1,113
  1,164
  1,189
  1,245
  1,305
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,574
  1,650
  1,730
  1,814
  1,902
  1,995
  2,092
  2,195
  2,302
  2,415
  2,534
  2,658
  2,789
  2,926
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -557
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -674
  -707
  -742
  -779
  -817
  -857
  -900
  -944
  -991
  -1,040
  -1,092
  -1,146
  -1,203
  -1,263
  -1,326
  -1,392
New CAPEX, $m
  -468
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -392
  -412
  -433
  -454
  -477
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -610
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -465
  -494
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -656
  -689
  -722
  -758
  -795
  -835
  -876
  -920
  -965
  -1,013
  -1,064
  -1,117
  -1,172
  -1,230
  -1,292
  -1,356
  -1,424
  -1,494
  -1,569
  -1,647
  -1,730
  -1,816
  -1,907
  -2,002
Free cash flow, $m
  280
  293
  304
  314
  325
  337
  349
  362
  376
  391
  406
  394
  411
  429
  448
  467
  488
  511
  534
  558
  584
  611
  639
  669
  700
  733
  768
  804
  842
  882
  924
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -304
  176
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  405
  426
  448
  470
  494
  519
  545
  573
  602
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -304
  176
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  405
  426
  448
  470
  494
  519
  545
  573
  602
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -24
  469
  492
  513
  535
  558
  582
  607
  634
  662
  692
  694
  726
  761
  797
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,105
  1,158
  1,214
  1,273
  1,335
  1,399
  1,468
  1,539
  1,614
  1,693
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  379
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  406
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  566
  590
  587
  614
  643
  673
  704
  737
  772
  808
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,020
  1,070
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,292
  1,354
  1,420
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  375
  361
  341
  320
  298
  275
  251
  226
  202
  178
  148
  127
  108
  90
  74
  59
  47
  36
  28
  21
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cogeco Communications Inc., formerly Cogeco Cable Inc., is a Canada-based communications company. The Company provides residential and business customers with video, Internet and telephony services through its two-way broadband fiber networks. The Company operates through three segments: Canadian broadband services, American broadband services and Business information and communications technology (Business ICT) services. The Canadian and American broadband services segments provide a range of video, Internet and telephony services primarily to residential customers and also provide business services to small and medium sized businesses across their coverage areas. The Business ICT services segment provides colocation, network connectivity, hosting, cloud and a portfolio of managed services primarily in Canada, the United States and Europe to small, medium and large enterprises around the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V (CCA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -23.4
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 205.7%
Total Debt to Equity 210.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity -12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Operating Margin 0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin -8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate -58.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Payout Ratio -40.5%

CCA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for CCA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCA are equal to 141.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCA is equal to -12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1380 million for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.52 million for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.5 billion.

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Financial statements of CCA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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