Intrinsic value of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No - CCL-B

Previous Close

$58.00

  Intrinsic Value

$64.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+11%

Previous close

$58.00

 
Intrinsic value

$64.22

 
Up/down potential

+11%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCL-B stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No (CCL-B) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.80
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  3,975
  4,404
  4,854
  5,325
  5,817
  6,329
  6,862
  7,417
  7,993
  8,592
  9,215
  9,862
  10,535
  11,234
  11,961
  12,718
  13,506
  14,326
  15,181
  16,073
  17,002
  17,972
  18,985
  20,043
  21,148
  22,303
  23,511
  24,775
  26,097
  27,481
  28,930
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,753
  4,125
  4,515
  4,921
  5,344
  5,785
  6,243
  6,720
  7,215
  7,730
  8,151
  8,707
  9,285
  9,886
  10,512
  11,163
  11,841
  12,548
  13,284
  14,053
  14,854
  15,691
  16,566
  17,479
  18,434
  19,432
  20,477
  21,570
  22,714
  23,911
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,450
  3,753
  4,125
  4,515
  4,921
  5,344
  5,785
  6,243
  6,720
  7,215
  7,730
  8,151
  8,707
  9,285
  9,886
  10,512
  11,163
  11,841
  12,548
  13,284
  14,053
  14,854
  15,691
  16,566
  17,479
  18,434
  19,432
  20,477
  21,570
  22,714
  23,911
Operating income, $m
  525
  651
  729
  811
  896
  985
  1,077
  1,173
  1,273
  1,377
  1,485
  1,711
  1,828
  1,949
  2,075
  2,206
  2,343
  2,485
  2,634
  2,788
  2,950
  3,118
  3,293
  3,477
  3,669
  3,869
  4,079
  4,298
  4,527
  4,767
  5,019
EBITDA, $m
  729
  902
  994
  1,091
  1,191
  1,296
  1,406
  1,519
  1,637
  1,760
  1,888
  2,020
  2,158
  2,301
  2,450
  2,605
  2,766
  2,934
  3,110
  3,292
  3,483
  3,681
  3,889
  4,105
  4,332
  4,568
  4,816
  5,075
  5,345
  5,629
  5,926
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  56
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  130
  144
  159
  174
  190
  206
  224
  241
  260
  279
  299
  320
  342
  365
  389
  414
  439
  466
  495
  524
  555
  587
  621
  656
Earnings before tax, $m
  487
  595
  662
  732
  805
  882
  961
  1,044
  1,130
  1,219
  1,312
  1,521
  1,621
  1,725
  1,834
  1,946
  2,064
  2,186
  2,313
  2,446
  2,585
  2,729
  2,880
  3,038
  3,202
  3,374
  3,554
  3,743
  3,940
  4,146
  4,362
Tax expense, $m
  141
  161
  179
  198
  217
  238
  260
  282
  305
  329
  354
  411
  438
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  625
  660
  698
  737
  778
  820
  865
  911
  960
  1,011
  1,064
  1,119
  1,178
Net income, $m
  347
  434
  483
  535
  588
  644
  702
  762
  825
  890
  957
  1,110
  1,183
  1,260
  1,339
  1,421
  1,507
  1,596
  1,689
  1,786
  1,887
  1,992
  2,102
  2,217
  2,338
  2,463
  2,595
  2,732
  2,876
  3,027
  3,184

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  582
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,679
  4,541
  5,005
  5,490
  5,997
  6,525
  7,074
  7,646
  8,240
  8,858
  9,500
  10,167
  10,861
  11,582
  12,331
  13,112
  13,924
  14,770
  15,651
  16,570
  17,528
  18,528
  19,572
  20,662
  21,802
  22,993
  24,238
  25,541
  26,904
  28,331
  29,825
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,097
  4,541
  5,005
  5,490
  5,997
  6,525
  7,074
  7,646
  8,240
  8,858
  9,500
  10,167
  10,861
  11,582
  12,331
  13,112
  13,924
  14,770
  15,651
  16,570
  17,528
  18,528
  19,572
  20,662
  21,802
  22,993
  24,238
  25,541
  26,904
  28,331
  29,825
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
Average production assets, $m
  1,569
  1,740
  1,917
  2,103
  2,298
  2,500
  2,710
  2,930
  3,157
  3,394
  3,640
  3,896
  4,161
  4,437
  4,725
  5,024
  5,335
  5,659
  5,997
  6,349
  6,716
  7,099
  7,499
  7,917
  8,353
  8,810
  9,287
  9,786
  10,308
  10,855
  11,427
Working capital, $m
  754
  194
  214
  234
  256
  278
  302
  326
  352
  378
  405
  434
  464
  494
  526
  560
  594
  630
  668
  707
  748
  791
  835
  882
  930
  981
  1,034
  1,090
  1,148
  1,209
  1,273
Total debt, $m
  1,601
  1,912
  2,240
  2,584
  2,943
  3,316
  3,706
  4,110
  4,531
  4,969
  5,423
  5,895
  6,386
  6,897
  7,428
  7,980
  8,555
  9,154
  9,778
  10,428
  11,107
  11,815
  12,554
  13,326
  14,133
  14,976
  15,858
  16,780
  17,745
  18,755
  19,813
Total liabilities, $m
  2,904
  3,215
  3,543
  3,887
  4,246
  4,619
  5,009
  5,413
  5,834
  6,272
  6,726
  7,198
  7,689
  8,200
  8,731
  9,283
  9,858
  10,457
  11,081
  11,731
  12,410
  13,118
  13,857
  14,629
  15,436
  16,279
  17,161
  18,083
  19,048
  20,058
  21,116
Total equity, $m
  1,775
  1,326
  1,461
  1,603
  1,751
  1,905
  2,066
  2,233
  2,406
  2,587
  2,774
  2,969
  3,171
  3,382
  3,601
  3,829
  4,066
  4,313
  4,570
  4,838
  5,118
  5,410
  5,715
  6,033
  6,366
  6,714
  7,078
  7,458
  7,856
  8,273
  8,709
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,679
  4,541
  5,004
  5,490
  5,997
  6,524
  7,075
  7,646
  8,240
  8,859
  9,500
  10,167
  10,860
  11,582
  12,332
  13,112
  13,924
  14,770
  15,651
  16,569
  17,528
  18,528
  19,572
  20,662
  21,802
  22,993
  24,239
  25,541
  26,904
  28,331
  29,825
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.902
  1.440
  1.530
  1.610
  1.680
  1.740
  1.790
  1.840
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.291
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292
  0.292

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  347
  434
  483
  535
  588
  644
  702
  762
  825
  890
  957
  1,110
  1,183
  1,260
  1,339
  1,421
  1,507
  1,596
  1,689
  1,786
  1,887
  1,992
  2,102
  2,217
  2,338
  2,463
  2,595
  2,732
  2,876
  3,027
  3,184
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  204
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  402
  309
  330
  352
  375
  399
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  563
  595
  628
  663
  699
  737
  777
  818
  862
  907
Funds from operations, $m
  387
  686
  749
  815
  884
  955
  1,030
  1,108
  1,188
  1,272
  1,359
  1,420
  1,514
  1,612
  1,714
  1,820
  1,930
  2,045
  2,165
  2,289
  2,420
  2,556
  2,698
  2,846
  3,001
  3,163
  3,332
  3,509
  3,694
  3,888
  4,091
Change in working capital, $m
  -177
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
Cash from operations, $m
  564
  667
  729
  794
  862
  933
  1,006
  1,083
  1,163
  1,246
  1,332
  1,391
  1,484
  1,581
  1,682
  1,786
  1,895
  2,009
  2,127
  2,250
  2,379
  2,513
  2,653
  2,799
  2,952
  3,112
  3,279
  3,453
  3,636
  3,827
  4,028
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -125
  -138
  -152
  -167
  -182
  -198
  -215
  -233
  -251
  -269
  -289
  -309
  -330
  -352
  -375
  -399
  -423
  -449
  -476
  -504
  -533
  -563
  -595
  -628
  -663
  -699
  -737
  -777
  -818
  -862
New CAPEX, $m
  -235
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -383
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -456
  -477
  -499
  -522
  -547
  -572
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -797
  -296
  -316
  -338
  -361
  -384
  -409
  -434
  -461
  -488
  -515
  -545
  -575
  -606
  -639
  -674
  -710
  -747
  -787
  -828
  -871
  -916
  -963
  -1,013
  -1,065
  -1,119
  -1,176
  -1,236
  -1,299
  -1,365
  -1,434
Free cash flow, $m
  -233
  371
  413
  456
  501
  548
  597
  649
  703
  759
  817
  847
  909
  974
  1,042
  1,112
  1,185
  1,261
  1,340
  1,422
  1,508
  1,597
  1,690
  1,786
  1,887
  1,992
  2,102
  2,217
  2,337
  2,463
  2,594
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  533
  315
  329
  344
  359
  374
  389
  405
  421
  437
  455
  472
  491
  510
  531
  552
  575
  599
  624
  651
  678
  708
  739
  772
  807
  843
  882
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,058
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  510
  315
  329
  344
  359
  374
  389
  405
  421
  437
  455
  472
  491
  510
  531
  552
  575
  599
  624
  651
  678
  708
  739
  772
  807
  843
  882
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,058
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  249
  686
  742
  799
  860
  922
  987
  1,054
  1,124
  1,196
  1,271
  1,319
  1,400
  1,485
  1,573
  1,665
  1,760
  1,860
  1,964
  2,073
  2,186
  2,305
  2,429
  2,558
  2,694
  2,836
  2,984
  3,139
  3,302
  3,473
  3,651
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -305
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -436
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  578
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,135
  606
  658
  712
  768
  826
  887
  950
  1,016
  1,084
  1,124
  1,198
  1,274
  1,354
  1,437
  1,523
  1,613
  1,707
  1,805
  1,906
  2,013
  2,124
  2,240
  2,361
  2,488
  2,620
  2,759
  2,904
  3,056
  3,215
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,089
  555
  572
  586
  595
  600
  599
  594
  583
  568
  534
  511
  485
  455
  422
  387
  351
  314
  278
  242
  208
  176
  147
  120
  97
  76
  59
  45
  33
  24
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CCL Industries Inc. is involved in manufacture of labels, containers, consumer printable media products and inventory management and loss prevention solutions. It operates through four segments: Label, Avery, Checkpoint and Container. The Label segment includes production of pressure sensitive and extruded film materials for a range of decorative, instructional and functional applications for customers in the consumer packaging, healthcare, automotive and consumer durables markets. The Avery segment includes manufacturing and selling of consumer products, including labels, binders, dividers, sheet protectors and writing instruments in North America, Latin America, Asia Pacific and Europe. The Checkpoint segment includes manufacturing of technology-driven, loss-prevention, inventory management and labelling solutions, including radio-frequency and radio-frequency identification-based. The Container segment includes manufacturing of specialty containers for consumer products industry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No (CCL-B)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.4
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 146
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 90%
Total Debt to Equity 90.2%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Return On Equity 20.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Operating Margin 13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate 29%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Payout Ratio 20.2%

CCL-B stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCL-B stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3975 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCL-B stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCL-B is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCL-B stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCL-B stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCL-B stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCL-B are equal to 39.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCL-B is equal to 4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1775 million for CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 176.825 million for CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CCL Industries Inc. Unlimited Class B No at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.3 billion.

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Financial statements of CCL-B
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