Intrinsic value of Canfor Corporation - CFP

Previous Close

$25.12

  Intrinsic Value

$60.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+141%

Previous close

$25.12

 
Intrinsic value

$60.45

 
Up/down potential

+141%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CFP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  4,235
  4,481
  4,737
  5,004
  5,284
  5,576
  5,881
  6,200
  6,534
  6,883
  7,248
  7,631
  8,032
  8,451
  8,891
  9,352
  9,835
  10,341
  10,872
  11,429
  12,013
  12,625
  13,267
  13,941
  14,648
  15,390
  16,168
  16,985
  17,842
  18,742
  19,686
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,136
  2,257
  2,383
  2,515
  2,653
  2,797
  2,948
  3,105
  3,270
  3,443
  3,602
  3,791
  3,990
  4,197
  4,415
  4,643
  4,882
  5,132
  5,395
  5,671
  5,960
  6,263
  6,581
  6,915
  7,265
  7,632
  8,018
  8,423
  8,847
  9,293
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2,007
  2,057
  2,109
  2,161
  2,215
  2,271
  2,327
  2,386
  2,445
  2,506
  2,569
  2,633
  2,699
  2,767
  2,836
  2,907
  2,979
  3,054
  3,130
  3,208
  3,289
  3,371
  3,455
  3,541
  3,630
  3,721
  3,814
  3,909
  4,007
  4,107
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,932
  4,143
  4,314
  4,492
  4,676
  4,868
  5,068
  5,275
  5,491
  5,715
  5,949
  6,171
  6,424
  6,689
  6,964
  7,251
  7,550
  7,861
  8,186
  8,525
  8,879
  9,249
  9,634
  10,036
  10,456
  10,895
  11,353
  11,832
  12,332
  12,854
  13,400
Operating income, $m
  303
  338
  423
  513
  607
  707
  813
  925
  1,043
  1,168
  1,299
  1,460
  1,607
  1,763
  1,927
  2,101
  2,286
  2,480
  2,686
  2,904
  3,134
  3,377
  3,633
  3,905
  4,192
  4,495
  4,815
  5,153
  5,510
  5,888
  6,286
EBITDA, $m
  545
  589
  687
  791
  900
  1,015
  1,136
  1,264
  1,400
  1,542
  1,693
  1,852
  2,020
  2,197
  2,384
  2,582
  2,791
  3,012
  3,245
  3,491
  3,751
  4,026
  4,316
  4,622
  4,945
  5,286
  5,646
  6,026
  6,428
  6,851
  7,298
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  320
  401
  486
  577
  672
  773
  879
  992
  1,111
  1,237
  1,391
  1,532
  1,681
  1,839
  2,006
  2,182
  2,369
  2,566
  2,775
  2,996
  3,229
  3,475
  3,736
  4,012
  4,303
  4,611
  4,936
  5,280
  5,643
  6,026
Tax expense, $m
  64
  86
  108
  131
  156
  181
  209
  237
  268
  300
  334
  376
  414
  454
  497
  542
  589
  640
  693
  749
  809
  872
  938
  1,009
  1,083
  1,162
  1,245
  1,333
  1,425
  1,523
  1,627
Net income, $m
  151
  233
  293
  355
  421
  491
  564
  642
  724
  811
  903
  1,016
  1,119
  1,227
  1,343
  1,464
  1,593
  1,729
  1,873
  2,026
  2,187
  2,357
  2,537
  2,727
  2,929
  3,141
  3,366
  3,603
  3,854
  4,119
  4,399

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,277
  3,302
  3,491
  3,688
  3,894
  4,109
  4,334
  4,569
  4,815
  5,072
  5,341
  5,623
  5,919
  6,228
  6,552
  6,892
  7,248
  7,621
  8,012
  8,422
  8,852
  9,304
  9,777
  10,273
  10,794
  11,341
  11,915
  12,517
  13,148
  13,811
  14,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,120
  3,302
  3,491
  3,688
  3,894
  4,109
  4,334
  4,569
  4,815
  5,072
  5,341
  5,623
  5,919
  6,228
  6,552
  6,892
  7,248
  7,621
  8,012
  8,422
  8,852
  9,304
  9,777
  10,273
  10,794
  11,341
  11,915
  12,517
  13,148
  13,811
  14,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
Average production assets, $m
  2,005
  2,119
  2,241
  2,367
  2,499
  2,637
  2,782
  2,933
  3,090
  3,256
  3,428
  3,609
  3,799
  3,998
  4,206
  4,424
  4,652
  4,891
  5,143
  5,406
  5,682
  5,972
  6,275
  6,594
  6,929
  7,279
  7,648
  8,034
  8,439
  8,865
  9,311
Working capital, $m
  485
  376
  398
  420
  444
  468
  494
  521
  549
  578
  609
  641
  675
  710
  747
  786
  826
  869
  913
  960
  1,009
  1,061
  1,114
  1,171
  1,230
  1,293
  1,358
  1,427
  1,499
  1,574
  1,654
Total debt, $m
  476
  552
  659
  770
  887
  1,009
  1,136
  1,269
  1,408
  1,554
  1,706
  1,866
  2,033
  2,208
  2,391
  2,584
  2,785
  2,996
  3,218
  3,450
  3,693
  3,949
  4,217
  4,498
  4,793
  5,102
  5,427
  5,767
  6,125
  6,500
  6,894
Total liabilities, $m
  1,793
  1,869
  1,976
  2,087
  2,204
  2,326
  2,453
  2,586
  2,725
  2,871
  3,023
  3,183
  3,350
  3,525
  3,708
  3,901
  4,102
  4,313
  4,535
  4,767
  5,010
  5,266
  5,534
  5,815
  6,110
  6,419
  6,744
  7,084
  7,442
  7,817
  8,211
Total equity, $m
  1,484
  1,433
  1,515
  1,601
  1,690
  1,783
  1,881
  1,983
  2,090
  2,201
  2,318
  2,441
  2,569
  2,703
  2,844
  2,991
  3,145
  3,307
  3,477
  3,655
  3,842
  4,038
  4,243
  4,459
  4,685
  4,922
  5,171
  5,432
  5,706
  5,994
  6,296
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,277
  3,302
  3,491
  3,688
  3,894
  4,109
  4,334
  4,569
  4,815
  5,072
  5,341
  5,624
  5,919
  6,228
  6,552
  6,892
  7,247
  7,620
  8,012
  8,422
  8,852
  9,304
  9,777
  10,274
  10,795
  11,341
  11,915
  12,516
  13,148
  13,811
  14,507
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.321
  0.390
  0.430
  0.480
  0.520
  0.570
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  233
  293
  355
  421
  491
  564
  642
  724
  811
  903
  1,016
  1,119
  1,227
  1,343
  1,464
  1,593
  1,729
  1,873
  2,026
  2,187
  2,357
  2,537
  2,727
  2,929
  3,141
  3,366
  3,603
  3,854
  4,119
  4,399
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  242
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
  392
  413
  435
  457
  481
  506
  532
  559
  588
  618
  649
  682
  717
  753
  791
  831
  873
  917
  964
  1,012
Funds from operations, $m
  622
  485
  557
  633
  713
  798
  887
  982
  1,081
  1,186
  1,297
  1,408
  1,532
  1,662
  1,800
  1,945
  2,099
  2,261
  2,432
  2,613
  2,804
  3,006
  3,219
  3,444
  3,682
  3,933
  4,197
  4,477
  4,771
  5,083
  5,411
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
Cash from operations, $m
  584
  464
  535
  611
  690
  774
  862
  955
  1,053
  1,157
  1,266
  1,376
  1,498
  1,627
  1,763
  1,906
  2,058
  2,218
  2,388
  2,566
  2,755
  2,955
  3,165
  3,388
  3,622
  3,870
  4,132
  4,408
  4,699
  5,007
  5,332
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -218
  -230
  -244
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -506
  -532
  -559
  -588
  -618
  -649
  -682
  -717
  -753
  -791
  -831
  -873
  -917
  -964
New CAPEX, $m
  -234
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -447
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -318
  -333
  -351
  -371
  -389
  -410
  -431
  -453
  -477
  -501
  -527
  -554
  -582
  -612
  -643
  -675
  -709
  -745
  -783
  -822
  -864
  -908
  -953
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,104
  -1,159
  -1,217
  -1,278
  -1,342
  -1,411
Free cash flow, $m
  266
  131
  184
  241
  301
  364
  431
  502
  576
  656
  739
  822
  916
  1,015
  1,120
  1,231
  1,349
  1,473
  1,605
  1,744
  1,892
  2,047
  2,212
  2,387
  2,571
  2,766
  2,972
  3,190
  3,421
  3,664
  3,921
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -130
  104
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  375
  394
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -205
  104
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  375
  394
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  59
  235
  291
  352
  417
  486
  558
  635
  716
  801
  892
  982
  1,083
  1,190
  1,304
  1,423
  1,550
  1,684
  1,826
  1,976
  2,135
  2,303
  2,480
  2,668
  2,866
  3,076
  3,297
  3,531
  3,778
  4,039
  4,315
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  129
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  286
  209
  267
  328
  392
  460
  533
  609
  690
  775
  859
  955
  1,056
  1,163
  1,276
  1,396
  1,523
  1,657
  1,798
  1,948
  2,107
  2,275
  2,452
  2,640
  2,838
  3,048
  3,270
  3,504
  3,752
  4,013
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  274
  191
  232
  270
  304
  334
  360
  381
  396
  406
  408
  408
  402
  390
  375
  355
  331
  305
  277
  248
  218
  189
  161
  134
  110
  89
  70
  54
  41
  30
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Canfor Corporation is an integrated forest products company. The Company produces softwood lumber, pulp and paper products, remanufactured lumber products, engineered wood products, wood pellets and energy. Its segments include lumber, and pulp and paper. Its lumber segment includes logging operations, and manufacturing and sale of various grades, widths and lengths of lumber, engineered wood products, wood chips and wood pellets. Its lumber operations also include a finger-joint plant, two glulam plants, a whole-log chipping plant and a trucking division. The Pulp and Paper segment consists of three northern softwood market Kraft pulp mills and the Taylor pulp mill, all of which are owned and operated by Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (CPPI) in British Columbia. Its pulp and paper segment includes purchase of residual fiber, and production and sale of pulp and paper products, including Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft and Bleached Chemi-Thermo Mechanical Pulp, as well as energy revenues.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canfor Corporation (CFP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.2%
Total Debt to Equity 32.1%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 7.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 23.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CFP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CFP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4235 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canfor Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Canfor Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CFP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CFP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canfor Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canfor Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CFP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1958 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CFP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Canfor Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canfor Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CFP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CFP are equal to 47.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canfor Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CFP is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1484 million for Canfor Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 129.17 million for Canfor Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canfor Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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Financial statements of CFP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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