Intrinsic value of CI Financial Corp. - CIX

Previous Close

$29.05

  Intrinsic Value

$40.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+38%

Previous close

$29.05

 
Intrinsic value

$40.07

 
Up/down potential

+38%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.50
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,948
  2,086
  2,230
  2,379
  2,535
  2,697
  2,865
  3,040
  3,223
  3,413
  3,611
  3,818
  4,034
  4,260
  4,496
  4,742
  5,000
  5,269
  5,551
  5,846
  6,155
  6,478
  6,817
  7,172
  7,544
  7,934
  8,343
  8,771
  9,220
  9,692
  10,186
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,270
  1,350
  1,432
  1,518
  1,607
  1,700
  1,797
  1,898
  2,003
  2,112
  2,107
  2,227
  2,351
  2,481
  2,617
  2,759
  2,908
  3,064
  3,227
  3,397
  3,576
  3,763
  3,958
  4,164
  4,379
  4,604
  4,841
  5,089
  5,349
  5,622
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,242
  1,270
  1,350
  1,432
  1,518
  1,607
  1,700
  1,797
  1,898
  2,003
  2,112
  2,107
  2,227
  2,351
  2,481
  2,617
  2,759
  2,908
  3,064
  3,227
  3,397
  3,576
  3,763
  3,958
  4,164
  4,379
  4,604
  4,841
  5,089
  5,349
  5,622
Operating income, $m
  706
  816
  880
  947
  1,017
  1,089
  1,165
  1,243
  1,325
  1,410
  1,499
  1,711
  1,808
  1,909
  2,014
  2,125
  2,240
  2,361
  2,487
  2,620
  2,758
  2,903
  3,055
  3,214
  3,380
  3,555
  3,738
  3,930
  4,132
  4,343
  4,564
EBITDA, $m
  716
  978
  1,045
  1,115
  1,188
  1,264
  1,343
  1,425
  1,511
  1,600
  1,693
  1,790
  1,891
  1,997
  2,108
  2,223
  2,344
  2,470
  2,602
  2,741
  2,885
  3,037
  3,196
  3,362
  3,537
  3,719
  3,911
  4,112
  4,322
  4,543
  4,775
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  129
  137
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  237
  250
  265
Earnings before tax, $m
  690
  789
  849
  912
  977
  1,045
  1,115
  1,188
  1,265
  1,344
  1,428
  1,633
  1,724
  1,818
  1,917
  2,020
  2,128
  2,241
  2,359
  2,482
  2,611
  2,747
  2,889
  3,037
  3,193
  3,356
  3,527
  3,707
  3,895
  4,092
  4,299
Tax expense, $m
  187
  213
  229
  246
  264
  282
  301
  321
  342
  363
  385
  441
  465
  491
  518
  545
  574
  605
  637
  670
  705
  742
  780
  820
  862
  906
  952
  1,001
  1,052
  1,105
  1,161
Net income, $m
  503
  576
  620
  666
  713
  763
  814
  868
  923
  981
  1,042
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,399
  1,475
  1,553
  1,636
  1,722
  1,812
  1,906
  2,005
  2,109
  2,217
  2,331
  2,450
  2,575
  2,706
  2,843
  2,987
  3,138

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  203
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,459
  3,489
  3,729
  3,979
  4,239
  4,509
  4,791
  5,084
  5,389
  5,707
  6,039
  6,385
  6,746
  7,124
  7,518
  7,930
  8,361
  8,811
  9,283
  9,776
  10,293
  10,834
  11,400
  11,994
  12,616
  13,268
  13,951
  14,667
  15,419
  16,207
  17,033
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,256
  3,489
  3,729
  3,979
  4,239
  4,509
  4,791
  5,084
  5,389
  5,707
  6,039
  6,385
  6,746
  7,124
  7,518
  7,930
  8,361
  8,811
  9,283
  9,776
  10,293
  10,834
  11,400
  11,994
  12,616
  13,268
  13,951
  14,667
  15,419
  16,207
  17,033
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
Average production assets, $m
  1,210
  1,296
  1,385
  1,478
  1,574
  1,675
  1,779
  1,888
  2,001
  2,119
  2,243
  2,371
  2,505
  2,645
  2,792
  2,945
  3,105
  3,272
  3,447
  3,630
  3,822
  4,023
  4,234
  4,454
  4,685
  4,927
  5,181
  5,447
  5,726
  6,018
  6,325
Working capital, $m
  24
  -192
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -296
  -314
  -332
  -351
  -371
  -392
  -414
  -436
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -538
  -566
  -596
  -627
  -660
  -694
  -730
  -768
  -807
  -848
  -892
  -937
Total debt, $m
  759
  880
  1,007
  1,138
  1,275
  1,417
  1,565
  1,719
  1,880
  2,047
  2,221
  2,404
  2,594
  2,792
  2,999
  3,216
  3,443
  3,680
  3,928
  4,187
  4,459
  4,743
  5,041
  5,354
  5,681
  6,024
  6,383
  6,760
  7,155
  7,570
  8,004
Total liabilities, $m
  1,713
  1,835
  1,962
  2,093
  2,230
  2,372
  2,520
  2,674
  2,835
  3,002
  3,176
  3,359
  3,549
  3,747
  3,954
  4,171
  4,398
  4,635
  4,883
  5,142
  5,414
  5,698
  5,996
  6,309
  6,636
  6,979
  7,338
  7,715
  8,110
  8,525
  8,959
Total equity, $m
  1,745
  1,654
  1,768
  1,886
  2,009
  2,137
  2,271
  2,410
  2,554
  2,705
  2,862
  3,027
  3,198
  3,377
  3,563
  3,759
  3,963
  4,177
  4,400
  4,634
  4,879
  5,135
  5,404
  5,685
  5,980
  6,289
  6,613
  6,952
  7,308
  7,682
  8,074
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,458
  3,489
  3,730
  3,979
  4,239
  4,509
  4,791
  5,084
  5,389
  5,707
  6,038
  6,386
  6,747
  7,124
  7,517
  7,930
  8,361
  8,812
  9,283
  9,776
  10,293
  10,833
  11,400
  11,994
  12,616
  13,268
  13,951
  14,667
  15,418
  16,207
  17,033
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.435
  0.530
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  503
  576
  620
  666
  713
  763
  814
  868
  923
  981
  1,042
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,399
  1,475
  1,553
  1,636
  1,722
  1,812
  1,906
  2,005
  2,109
  2,217
  2,331
  2,450
  2,575
  2,706
  2,843
  2,987
  3,138
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  162
  165
  168
  171
  175
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
Funds from operations, $m
  690
  738
  785
  834
  885
  937
  992
  1,049
  1,109
  1,171
  1,236
  1,271
  1,342
  1,415
  1,492
  1,573
  1,657
  1,745
  1,837
  1,933
  2,034
  2,139
  2,250
  2,366
  2,487
  2,614
  2,748
  2,888
  3,034
  3,188
  3,349
Change in working capital, $m
  35
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from operations, $m
  655
  751
  798
  848
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,189
  1,254
  1,290
  1,362
  1,436
  1,514
  1,595
  1,680
  1,769
  1,863
  1,960
  2,062
  2,169
  2,281
  2,398
  2,521
  2,650
  2,785
  2,927
  3,076
  3,231
  3,395
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -133
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -418
  -439
  -461
  -484
  -508
Free cash flow, $m
  522
  625
  666
  709
  753
  799
  847
  897
  950
  1,004
  1,060
  1,087
  1,148
  1,212
  1,279
  1,349
  1,422
  1,499
  1,578
  1,662
  1,749
  1,841
  1,937
  2,037
  2,142
  2,252
  2,367
  2,488
  2,615
  2,748
  2,887
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  199
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  435
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -291
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -92
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  435
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  430
  746
  792
  840
  890
  942
  996
  1,052
  1,110
  1,171
  1,235
  1,269
  1,338
  1,411
  1,487
  1,566
  1,649
  1,736
  1,826
  1,921
  2,021
  2,125
  2,235
  2,349
  2,469
  2,595
  2,727
  2,865
  3,010
  3,162
  3,322
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -112
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -392
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  203
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  837
  679
  722
  767
  814
  862
  913
  965
  1,020
  1,077
  1,105
  1,167
  1,232
  1,300
  1,371
  1,445
  1,522
  1,603
  1,688
  1,776
  1,869
  1,966
  2,068
  2,174
  2,286
  2,403
  2,525
  2,654
  2,789
  2,930
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  803
  621
  628
  631
  631
  626
  617
  603
  586
  565
  525
  498
  468
  436
  402
  367
  331
  295
  260
  226
  193
  163
  136
  111
  89
  70
  54
  41
  30
  22
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CI Financial Corp. (CI) is a wealth management and investment fund company. The Company is engaged in management, marketing, distribution and administration of mutual funds, segregated funds, exchange-traded funds, structured products and other fee-earning investment products for Canadian investors. CI operates through two segments: Asset Management and Asset Administration. The Company's Asset Management segment provides the majority of CI's income and derives its revenue principally from the fees earned on the management of various families of mutual, segregated, pooled, exchange-traded and closed-end funds, structured products and discretionary accounts. CI's Asset Administration segment derives its revenue principally from commissions and fees earned on the sale of mutual funds and other financial products and ongoing service to clients. The Company's products are distributed primarily through brokers, independent financial planners and insurance advisors, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CI Financial Corp. (CIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.3
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 12
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 43.5%
Total Debt to Equity 43.5%
Interest Coverage 47
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Return On Total Capital 20.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Return On Equity 27.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 36.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
Operating Margin 36.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Pre-Tax Margin 35.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Net Profit Margin 25.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Payout Ratio 73.4%

CIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1948 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CI Financial Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CI Financial Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CI Financial Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CI Financial Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CI Financial Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CI Financial Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CIX are equal to 62.1%.

Life of production assets of 238.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CI Financial Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CIX is equal to -9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1745 million for CI Financial Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 276.408 million for CI Financial Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CI Financial Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.0 billion.

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Financial statements of CIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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