Intrinsic value of Emera Incorporated - EMA

Previous Close

$42.73

  Intrinsic Value

$26.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$42.73

 
Intrinsic value

$26.21

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EMA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  4,401
  4,538
  4,688
  4,850
  5,026
  5,215
  5,417
  5,634
  5,865
  6,110
  6,371
  6,648
  6,940
  7,250
  7,578
  7,924
  8,290
  8,675
  9,081
  9,510
  9,961
  10,436
  10,936
  11,463
  12,017
  12,600
  13,212
  13,857
  14,535
  15,247
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,582
  3,674
  3,775
  3,884
  4,002
  4,130
  4,266
  4,411
  4,567
  4,732
  4,286
  4,472
  4,669
  4,878
  5,098
  5,331
  5,577
  5,836
  6,109
  6,398
  6,701
  7,021
  7,357
  7,711
  8,084
  8,476
  8,888
  9,322
  9,778
  10,257
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,582
  3,674
  3,775
  3,884
  4,002
  4,130
  4,266
  4,411
  4,567
  4,732
  4,286
  4,472
  4,669
  4,878
  5,098
  5,331
  5,577
  5,836
  6,109
  6,398
  6,701
  7,021
  7,357
  7,711
  8,084
  8,476
  8,888
  9,322
  9,778
  10,257
Operating income, $m
  819
  864
  913
  966
  1,024
  1,085
  1,152
  1,222
  1,298
  1,378
  2,085
  2,175
  2,271
  2,373
  2,480
  2,593
  2,713
  2,839
  2,972
  3,112
  3,260
  3,415
  3,579
  3,751
  3,933
  4,123
  4,324
  4,535
  4,757
  4,990
EBITDA, $m
  1,920
  1,979
  2,045
  2,116
  2,192
  2,275
  2,363
  2,458
  2,558
  2,665
  2,779
  2,900
  3,027
  3,163
  3,306
  3,457
  3,616
  3,784
  3,961
  4,148
  4,345
  4,552
  4,771
  5,000
  5,242
  5,496
  5,763
  6,044
  6,340
  6,651
Interest expense (income), $m
  480
  720
  752
  786
  822
  862
  904
  950
  1,000
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,232
  1,299
  1,371
  1,446
  1,526
  1,610
  1,699
  1,793
  1,892
  1,997
  2,106
  2,222
  2,344
  2,472
  2,607
  2,749
  2,898
  3,055
  3,220
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  112
  127
  144
  162
  181
  201
  223
  246
  270
  916
  943
  972
  1,002
  1,034
  1,067
  1,103
  1,140
  1,179
  1,220
  1,263
  1,309
  1,357
  1,407
  1,460
  1,516
  1,575
  1,636
  1,701
  1,769
Tax expense, $m
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  247
  255
  262
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  318
  329
  341
  353
  366
  380
  394
  409
  425
  442
  459
  478
Net income, $m
  73
  81
  93
  105
  118
  132
  147
  163
  179
  197
  669
  689
  710
  732
  755
  779
  805
  832
  861
  891
  922
  956
  991
  1,027
  1,066
  1,107
  1,150
  1,195
  1,242
  1,292

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  29,737
  30,662
  31,673
  32,772
  33,959
  35,236
  36,604
  38,067
  39,626
  41,285
  43,047
  44,916
  46,895
  48,989
  51,203
  53,542
  56,011
  58,615
  61,361
  64,255
  67,304
  70,515
  73,895
  77,452
  81,195
  85,132
  89,273
  93,628
  98,206
  103,019
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  29,737
  30,662
  31,673
  32,772
  33,959
  35,236
  36,604
  38,067
  39,626
  41,285
  43,047
  44,916
  46,895
  48,989
  51,203
  53,542
  56,011
  58,615
  61,361
  64,255
  67,304
  70,515
  73,895
  77,452
  81,195
  85,132
  89,273
  93,628
  98,206
  103,019
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
Average production assets, $m
  12,226
  12,606
  13,022
  13,474
  13,962
  14,487
  15,050
  15,651
  16,292
  16,974
  17,698
  18,467
  19,281
  20,142
  21,052
  22,014
  23,029
  24,099
  25,228
  26,418
  27,672
  28,992
  30,381
  31,844
  33,383
  35,002
  36,704
  38,494
  40,377
  42,356
Working capital, $m
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -204
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -305
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -381
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
Total debt, $m
  16,004
  16,713
  17,489
  18,332
  19,242
  20,222
  21,271
  22,393
  23,589
  24,862
  26,213
  27,646
  29,164
  30,771
  32,469
  34,263
  36,156
  38,154
  40,260
  42,480
  44,818
  47,281
  49,873
  52,602
  55,472
  58,492
  61,668
  65,008
  68,520
  72,212
Total liabilities, $m
  22,808
  23,517
  24,293
  25,136
  26,046
  27,026
  28,075
  29,197
  30,393
  31,666
  33,017
  34,450
  35,968
  37,575
  39,273
  41,067
  42,960
  44,958
  47,064
  49,284
  51,622
  54,085
  56,677
  59,406
  62,276
  65,296
  68,472
  71,812
  75,324
  79,016
Total equity, $m
  6,929
  7,144
  7,380
  7,636
  7,912
  8,210
  8,529
  8,870
  9,233
  9,619
  10,030
  10,465
  10,927
  11,415
  11,930
  12,475
  13,051
  13,657
  14,297
  14,972
  15,682
  16,430
  17,217
  18,046
  18,918
  19,836
  20,801
  21,815
  22,882
  24,004
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  29,737
  30,661
  31,673
  32,772
  33,958
  35,236
  36,604
  38,067
  39,626
  41,285
  43,047
  44,915
  46,895
  48,990
  51,203
  53,542
  56,011
  58,615
  61,361
  64,256
  67,304
  70,515
  73,894
  77,452
  81,194
  85,132
  89,273
  93,627
  98,206
  103,020
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.310
  2.340
  2.370
  2.400
  2.430
  2.460
  2.490
  2.520
  2.550
  2.580
  2.610
  2.640
  2.670
  2.700
  2.720
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
  2.880
  2.900
  2.910
  2.930
  2.950
  2.960
  2.980
  2.990
  3.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  81
  93
  105
  118
  132
  147
  163
  179
  197
  669
  689
  710
  732
  755
  779
  805
  832
  861
  891
  922
  956
  991
  1,027
  1,066
  1,107
  1,150
  1,195
  1,242
  1,292
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,101
  1,116
  1,132
  1,150
  1,169
  1,189
  1,211
  1,235
  1,260
  1,287
  694
  724
  756
  790
  826
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,191
  1,249
  1,309
  1,373
  1,439
  1,510
  1,583
  1,661
Funds from operations, $m
  1,173
  1,197
  1,225
  1,255
  1,287
  1,322
  1,358
  1,398
  1,439
  1,484
  1,363
  1,413
  1,466
  1,521
  1,580
  1,642
  1,708
  1,777
  1,850
  1,927
  2,007
  2,092
  2,182
  2,276
  2,375
  2,479
  2,589
  2,704
  2,825
  2,953
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  1,179
  1,203
  1,231
  1,262
  1,294
  1,329
  1,367
  1,407
  1,449
  1,494
  1,374
  1,425
  1,478
  1,534
  1,594
  1,657
  1,723
  1,793
  1,867
  1,945
  2,026
  2,112
  2,203
  2,298
  2,398
  2,504
  2,615
  2,731
  2,854
  2,983
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -466
  -479
  -494
  -511
  -528
  -548
  -568
  -590
  -614
  -639
  -666
  -694
  -724
  -756
  -790
  -826
  -863
  -903
  -945
  -989
  -1,036
  -1,085
  -1,137
  -1,191
  -1,249
  -1,309
  -1,373
  -1,439
  -1,510
  -1,583
New CAPEX, $m
  -347
  -380
  -416
  -452
  -488
  -525
  -563
  -601
  -641
  -682
  -724
  -768
  -814
  -861
  -910
  -962
  -1,015
  -1,071
  -1,129
  -1,190
  -1,253
  -1,320
  -1,390
  -1,463
  -1,539
  -1,619
  -1,703
  -1,790
  -1,882
  -1,979
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -813
  -859
  -910
  -963
  -1,016
  -1,073
  -1,131
  -1,191
  -1,255
  -1,321
  -1,390
  -1,462
  -1,538
  -1,617
  -1,700
  -1,788
  -1,878
  -1,974
  -2,074
  -2,179
  -2,289
  -2,405
  -2,527
  -2,654
  -2,788
  -2,928
  -3,076
  -3,229
  -3,392
  -3,562
Free cash flow, $m
  366
  343
  321
  299
  278
  257
  236
  215
  194
  173
  -16
  -38
  -60
  -83
  -106
  -130
  -155
  -181
  -207
  -235
  -263
  -293
  -324
  -356
  -389
  -424
  -460
  -498
  -538
  -580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  695
  709
  776
  843
  910
  979
  1,050
  1,122
  1,196
  1,272
  1,351
  1,433
  1,518
  1,606
  1,698
  1,794
  1,894
  1,998
  2,106
  2,220
  2,338
  2,462
  2,592
  2,728
  2,871
  3,020
  3,176
  3,340
  3,512
  3,692
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  152
  134
  143
  151
  158
  165
  172
  178
  184
  190
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  847
  843
  919
  994
  1,068
  1,144
  1,222
  1,300
  1,380
  1,462
  1,351
  1,433
  1,518
  1,606
  1,698
  1,794
  1,894
  1,998
  2,106
  2,220
  2,338
  2,462
  2,592
  2,728
  2,871
  3,020
  3,176
  3,340
  3,512
  3,692
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,213
  1,187
  1,240
  1,293
  1,347
  1,402
  1,458
  1,515
  1,574
  1,635
  1,335
  1,395
  1,458
  1,524
  1,592
  1,664
  1,739
  1,817
  1,899
  1,985
  2,075
  2,170
  2,269
  2,373
  2,482
  2,596
  2,716
  2,842
  2,973
  3,112
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -225
  -215
  -236
  -256
  -277
  -298
  -319
  -341
  -363
  -387
  -411
  -435
  -461
  -488
  -516
  -545
  -575
  -607
  -640
  -674
  -710
  -748
  -788
  -829
  -872
  -917
  -965
  -1,015
  -1,067
  -1,121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  989
  971
  1,004
  1,037
  1,070
  1,104
  1,139
  1,174
  1,211
  1,249
  925
  960
  997
  1,036
  1,076
  1,119
  1,163
  1,210
  1,259
  1,311
  1,365
  1,422
  1,481
  1,544
  1,610
  1,679
  1,751
  1,827
  1,907
  1,990
Discount rate, %
  11.20
  11.76
  12.35
  12.97
  13.61
  14.29
  15.01
  15.76
  16.55
  17.37
  18.24
  19.16
  20.11
  21.12
  22.18
  23.28
  24.45
  25.67
  26.95
  28.30
  29.72
  31.20
  32.76
  34.40
  36.12
  37.93
  39.82
  41.81
  43.91
  46.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  889
  777
  708
  637
  565
  495
  428
  364
  305
  252
  146
  117
  92
  71
  53
  39
  28
  20
  14
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.4
  97.0
  95.6
  94.2
  92.7
  91.3
  90.0
  88.6
  87.3
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0
  86.0

Emera Incorporated is an energy and services company, which invests in electricity generation, transmission and distribution, gas transmission and utility services. The Company operates through six segments: Emera Florida and New Mexico; Nova Scotia Power Inc. (NSPI); Emera Maine; Emera Caribbean; Emera Energy, and Corporate and Other. The Emera Florida and New Mexico segment represents TECO Energy, Inc., a holding company with regulated electric and gas utilities. NSPI is an integrated electric utility and primary electricity supplier. Its Emera Maine segment provides electric transmission and distribution services in the United States. Its Emera Caribbean segment includes Emera (Caribbean) Incorporated and its subsidiaries, and investment in St. Lucia Electricity Services Limited. The Emera Energy segment includes Emera Energy Services, New England gas generating facilities, Bayside Power Limited Partnership, Brooklyn Power Corporation and investment in Bear Swamp Power Company LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emera Incorporated (EMA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.2
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 407.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 53.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 141.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 212.9%
Total Debt to Equity 234.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 30.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Operating Margin 13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate -9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Payout Ratio 97.6%

EMA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EMA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emera Incorporated. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Emera Incorporated. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EMA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.2%, whose default value for EMA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emera Incorporated, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emera Incorporated.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EMA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EMA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Emera Incorporated.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emera Incorporated. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EMA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EMA are equal to 277.8%.

Life of production assets of 25.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emera Incorporated operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EMA is equal to -4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6704 million for Emera Incorporated - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 213.282 million for Emera Incorporated is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emera Incorporated at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.1 billion.

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