Intrinsic value of Finning International Inc. - FTT

Previous Close

$34.18

  Intrinsic Value

$2.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$34.18

 
Intrinsic value

$2.65

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FTT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.31
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
Revenue, $m
  5,628
  6,534
  7,514
  8,565
  9,686
  10,876
  12,132
  13,455
  14,842
  16,293
  17,808
  19,388
  21,033
  22,744
  24,523
  26,372
  28,293
  30,289
  32,365
  34,522
  36,766
  39,100
  41,530
  44,061
  46,697
  49,445
  52,312
  55,302
  58,425
  61,685
  65,092
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,643
  7,637
  8,704
  9,842
  11,050
  12,325
  13,667
  15,075
  16,548
  18,086
  19,677
  21,346
  23,083
  24,888
  26,765
  28,714
  30,741
  32,847
  35,037
  37,314
  39,683
  42,149
  44,717
  47,393
  50,182
  53,091
  56,127
  59,295
  62,604
  66,062
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,463
  6,643
  7,637
  8,704
  9,842
  11,050
  12,325
  13,667
  15,075
  16,548
  18,086
  19,677
  21,346
  23,083
  24,888
  26,765
  28,714
  30,741
  32,847
  35,037
  37,314
  39,683
  42,149
  44,717
  47,393
  50,182
  53,091
  56,127
  59,295
  62,604
  66,062
Operating income, $m
  165
  -109
  -124
  -139
  -156
  -174
  -193
  -212
  -233
  -255
  -277
  -289
  -313
  -339
  -365
  -393
  -422
  -451
  -482
  -514
  -548
  -583
  -619
  -657
  -696
  -737
  -780
  -824
  -871
  -919
  -970
EBITDA, $m
  357
  103
  118
  135
  152
  171
  191
  212
  233
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  415
  445
  476
  509
  543
  578
  615
  653
  693
  734
  777
  822
  869
  919
  970
  1,023
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  73
  97
  122
  150
  179
  210
  243
  278
  314
  352
  392
  433
  476
  521
  568
  616
  667
  719
  773
  830
  888
  950
  1,013
  1,080
  1,149
  1,221
  1,296
  1,374
  1,456
  1,541
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  -182
  -220
  -262
  -306
  -353
  -403
  -456
  -511
  -569
  -629
  -681
  -747
  -815
  -887
  -961
  -1,038
  -1,118
  -1,201
  -1,288
  -1,378
  -1,471
  -1,569
  -1,670
  -1,775
  -1,885
  -2,000
  -2,120
  -2,245
  -2,375
  -2,511
Tax expense, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  65
  -182
  -220
  -262
  -306
  -353
  -403
  -456
  -511
  -569
  -629
  -681
  -747
  -815
  -887
  -961
  -1,038
  -1,118
  -1,201
  -1,288
  -1,378
  -1,471
  -1,569
  -1,670
  -1,775
  -1,885
  -2,000
  -2,120
  -2,245
  -2,375
  -2,511

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  593
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,910
  5,011
  5,762
  6,568
  7,428
  8,340
  9,304
  10,318
  11,382
  12,495
  13,657
  14,868
  16,129
  17,442
  18,806
  20,224
  21,697
  23,228
  24,819
  26,474
  28,195
  29,985
  31,848
  33,789
  35,811
  37,918
  40,116
  42,410
  44,804
  47,305
  49,917
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,317
  5,011
  5,762
  6,568
  7,428
  8,340
  9,304
  10,318
  11,382
  12,495
  13,657
  14,868
  16,129
  17,442
  18,806
  20,224
  21,697
  23,228
  24,819
  26,474
  28,195
  29,985
  31,848
  33,789
  35,811
  37,918
  40,116
  42,410
  44,804
  47,305
  49,917
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
  1.304
Average production assets, $m
  1,104
  1,281
  1,473
  1,679
  1,898
  2,132
  2,378
  2,637
  2,909
  3,193
  3,490
  3,800
  4,122
  4,458
  4,806
  5,169
  5,545
  5,937
  6,343
  6,766
  7,206
  7,664
  8,140
  8,636
  9,153
  9,691
  10,253
  10,839
  11,451
  12,090
  12,758
Working capital, $m
  2,145
  1,803
  2,074
  2,364
  2,673
  3,002
  3,349
  3,714
  4,096
  4,497
  4,915
  5,351
  5,805
  6,277
  6,768
  7,279
  7,809
  8,360
  8,933
  9,528
  10,147
  10,792
  11,462
  12,161
  12,888
  13,647
  14,438
  15,263
  16,125
  17,025
  17,965
Total debt, $m
  1,489
  1,973
  2,496
  3,058
  3,657
  4,293
  4,965
  5,672
  6,413
  7,189
  7,999
  8,843
  9,722
  10,637
  11,588
  12,576
  13,603
  14,670
  15,779
  16,932
  18,132
  19,379
  20,678
  22,031
  23,440
  24,909
  26,441
  28,040
  29,708
  31,451
  33,272
Total liabilities, $m
  3,009
  3,493
  4,016
  4,578
  5,177
  5,813
  6,485
  7,192
  7,933
  8,709
  9,519
  10,363
  11,242
  12,157
  13,108
  14,096
  15,123
  16,190
  17,299
  18,452
  19,652
  20,899
  22,198
  23,551
  24,960
  26,429
  27,961
  29,560
  31,228
  32,971
  34,792
Total equity, $m
  1,901
  1,518
  1,746
  1,990
  2,251
  2,527
  2,819
  3,126
  3,449
  3,786
  4,138
  4,505
  4,887
  5,285
  5,698
  6,128
  6,574
  7,038
  7,520
  8,022
  8,543
  9,085
  9,650
  10,238
  10,851
  11,489
  12,155
  12,850
  13,576
  14,333
  15,125
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,910
  5,011
  5,762
  6,568
  7,428
  8,340
  9,304
  10,318
  11,382
  12,495
  13,657
  14,868
  16,129
  17,442
  18,806
  20,224
  21,697
  23,228
  24,819
  26,474
  28,195
  29,984
  31,848
  33,789
  35,811
  37,918
  40,116
  42,410
  44,804
  47,304
  49,917
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.783
  1.300
  1.430
  1.540
  1.620
  1.700
  1.760
  1.810
  1.860
  1.900
  1.930
  1.960
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
  2.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  65
  -182
  -220
  -262
  -306
  -353
  -403
  -456
  -511
  -569
  -629
  -681
  -747
  -815
  -887
  -961
  -1,038
  -1,118
  -1,201
  -1,288
  -1,378
  -1,471
  -1,569
  -1,670
  -1,775
  -1,885
  -2,000
  -2,120
  -2,245
  -2,375
  -2,511
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  192
  212
  242
  274
  308
  345
  383
  424
  466
  511
  557
  594
  644
  697
  751
  808
  866
  928
  991
  1,057
  1,126
  1,197
  1,272
  1,349
  1,430
  1,514
  1,602
  1,694
  1,789
  1,889
  1,993
Funds from operations, $m
  332
  30
  21
  12
  2
  -8
  -20
  -32
  -45
  -58
  -72
  -87
  -103
  -119
  -136
  -153
  -171
  -190
  -210
  -230
  -252
  -274
  -297
  -321
  -345
  -371
  -398
  -426
  -455
  -486
  -518
Change in working capital, $m
  -108
  250
  270
  290
  309
  328
  347
  365
  383
  401
  418
  436
  454
  472
  491
  510
  530
  551
  573
  595
  619
  644
  671
  698
  728
  759
  791
  825
  862
  900
  940
Cash from operations, $m
  440
  -220
  -249
  -278
  -307
  -337
  -366
  -397
  -427
  -459
  -491
  -523
  -557
  -591
  -627
  -663
  -702
  -741
  -783
  -826
  -871
  -918
  -967
  -1,019
  -1,073
  -1,130
  -1,189
  -1,252
  -1,317
  -1,386
  -1,458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -172
  -200
  -230
  -262
  -297
  -333
  -372
  -412
  -455
  -499
  -545
  -594
  -644
  -697
  -751
  -808
  -866
  -928
  -991
  -1,057
  -1,126
  -1,197
  -1,272
  -1,349
  -1,430
  -1,514
  -1,602
  -1,694
  -1,789
  -1,889
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -177
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -349
  -362
  -377
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -476
  -496
  -517
  -539
  -562
  -586
  -612
  -639
  -668
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -349
  -392
  -436
  -482
  -530
  -579
  -631
  -684
  -739
  -796
  -855
  -916
  -979
  -1,046
  -1,113
  -1,185
  -1,257
  -1,335
  -1,414
  -1,497
  -1,584
  -1,673
  -1,768
  -1,866
  -1,969
  -2,076
  -2,188
  -2,306
  -2,428
  -2,557
Free cash flow, $m
  400
  -570
  -641
  -714
  -789
  -866
  -946
  -1,027
  -1,111
  -1,198
  -1,286
  -1,378
  -1,473
  -1,571
  -1,672
  -1,777
  -1,886
  -1,999
  -2,117
  -2,240
  -2,368
  -2,502
  -2,641
  -2,787
  -2,939
  -3,099
  -3,265
  -3,440
  -3,623
  -3,814
  -4,015
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -132
  486
  524
  562
  599
  636
  672
  707
  741
  776
  810
  844
  879
  915
  951
  988
  1,027
  1,067
  1,109
  1,153
  1,199
  1,248
  1,299
  1,353
  1,409
  1,469
  1,532
  1,599
  1,669
  1,743
  1,821
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  390
  448
  506
  567
  630
  695
  763
  833
  906
  982
  1,048
  1,129
  1,213
  1,300
  1,390
  1,484
  1,582
  1,683
  1,789
  1,899
  2,014
  2,133
  2,258
  2,388
  2,524
  2,666
  2,815
  2,970
  3,133
  3,303
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -132
  876
  972
  1,068
  1,166
  1,266
  1,367
  1,470
  1,574
  1,682
  1,792
  1,892
  2,008
  2,128
  2,251
  2,378
  2,511
  2,649
  2,792
  2,942
  3,098
  3,262
  3,432
  3,611
  3,797
  3,993
  4,198
  4,414
  4,639
  4,876
  5,124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  241
  306
  331
  354
  377
  399
  421
  442
  463
  484
  505
  514
  535
  557
  579
  602
  625
  650
  675
  702
  730
  760
  791
  824
  858
  895
  933
  973
  1,016
  1,061
  1,109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -390
  -448
  -506
  -567
  -630
  -695
  -763
  -833
  -906
  -982
  -1,048
  -1,129
  -1,213
  -1,300
  -1,390
  -1,484
  -1,582
  -1,683
  -1,789
  -1,899
  -2,014
  -2,133
  -2,258
  -2,388
  -2,524
  -2,666
  -2,815
  -2,970
  -3,133
  -3,303
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  591
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  507
  -117
  -152
  -190
  -230
  -274
  -321
  -370
  -422
  -477
  -534
  -594
  -656
  -721
  -789
  -859
  -932
  -1,008
  -1,087
  -1,169
  -1,254
  -1,342
  -1,434
  -1,530
  -1,630
  -1,733
  -1,841
  -1,954
  -2,071
  -2,194
Discount rate, %
 
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  485
  -107
  -132
  -156
  -178
  -198
  -215
  -229
  -239
  -246
  -249
  -249
  -244
  -236
  -225
  -212
  -196
  -179
  -161
  -142
  -123
  -105
  -89
  -73
  -59
  -47
  -36
  -28
  -21
  -15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.0
  82.9
  75.7
  69.1
  63.3
  58.0
  53.2
  48.9
  45.0
  41.5
  38.2
  35.3
  32.6
  30.2
  27.9
  25.9
  23.9
  22.2
  20.6
  19.1
  17.7
  16.4
  15.2
  14.1
  13.1
  12.2
  11.3
  10.5
  9.8
  9.1

Finning International Inc. is engaged in the selling, servicing and renting of heavy equipment, engines, and related products in various markets worldwide. Its segments include its Canadian operations, which include British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and a portion of Nunavut; South American operations, which include Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, and Uruguay, the United Kingdom and Ireland operations, which include England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It offers products and services through four lines of business: product support, new equipment sales, used equipment sales and equipment rental. It provides replacement parts, and maintenance and repair services for the products it sells. It distributes Caterpillar Inc.'s products, such as tractors, off-highway trucks and drills. It buys and sells used equipment domestically and internationally. It owns fleets of equipment for short-term rental and medium-term rental.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Finning International Inc. (FTT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 88.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 297
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 78.2%
Total Debt to Equity 78.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 189.2%

FTT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FTT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5628 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Finning International Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Finning International Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FTT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for FTT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Finning International Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Finning International Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FTT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FTT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Finning International Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Finning International Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FTT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FTT are equal to 19.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Finning International Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FTT is equal to 27.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1901 million for Finning International Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 168.033 million for Finning International Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Finning International Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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Financial statements of FTT
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