Intrinsic value of Gibson Energy Inc. - GEI

Previous Close

$17.56

  Intrinsic Value

$1.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$17.56

 
Intrinsic value

$1.05

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GEI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.10
  17.69
  16.42
  15.28
  14.25
  13.33
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.92
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.23
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
Revenue, $m
  5,471
  6,439
  7,497
  8,642
  9,874
  11,190
  12,587
  14,066
  15,623
  17,257
  18,969
  20,756
  22,621
  24,563
  26,583
  28,684
  30,867
  33,137
  35,495
  37,946
  40,493
  43,143
  45,899
  48,768
  51,754
  54,866
  58,109
  61,491
  65,019
  68,702
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,091
  5,983
  6,958
  8,015
  9,150
  10,363
  11,653
  13,016
  14,451
  15,959
  17,491
  19,140
  20,859
  22,650
  24,513
  26,450
  28,463
  30,556
  32,730
  34,990
  37,340
  39,783
  42,324
  44,969
  47,724
  50,593
  53,583
  56,702
  59,955
  63,351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  507
  518
  529
  541
  553
  565
  578
  590
  603
  617
  630
  644
  658
  673
  687
  703
  718
  734
  750
  766
  783
  801
  818
  836
  855
  873
  893
  912
  932
  953
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,598
  6,501
  7,487
  8,556
  9,703
  10,928
  12,231
  13,606
  15,054
  16,576
  18,121
  19,784
  21,517
  23,323
  25,200
  27,153
  29,181
  31,290
  33,480
  35,756
  38,123
  40,584
  43,142
  45,805
  48,579
  51,466
  54,476
  57,614
  60,887
  64,304
Operating income, $m
  -126
  -62
  9
  87
  171
  261
  357
  460
  568
  682
  847
  973
  1,104
  1,240
  1,383
  1,531
  1,686
  1,847
  2,014
  2,189
  2,370
  2,559
  2,757
  2,962
  3,176
  3,400
  3,633
  3,877
  4,132
  4,398
EBITDA, $m
  142
  246
  360
  484
  618
  762
  915
  1,078
  1,250
  1,430
  1,620
  1,818
  2,025
  2,241
  2,465
  2,699
  2,943
  3,196
  3,460
  3,734
  4,019
  4,316
  4,626
  4,948
  5,284
  5,634
  5,999
  6,381
  6,779
  7,196
Interest expense (income), $m
  90
  91
  119
  150
  184
  221
  261
  303
  348
  396
  446
  498
  553
  611
  671
  733
  798
  865
  936
  1,009
  1,084
  1,163
  1,245
  1,330
  1,419
  1,511
  1,607
  1,707
  1,811
  1,920
  2,034
Earnings before tax, $m
  -217
  -181
  -141
  -98
  -51
  0
  54
  112
  172
  236
  349
  419
  493
  570
  650
  733
  821
  911
  1,006
  1,104
  1,207
  1,314
  1,426
  1,543
  1,665
  1,793
  1,926
  2,065
  2,211
  2,364
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  15
  30
  47
  64
  94
  113
  133
  154
  175
  198
  222
  246
  272
  298
  326
  355
  385
  417
  450
  484
  520
  558
  597
  638
Net income, $m
  -217
  -181
  -141
  -98
  -51
  0
  40
  82
  126
  173
  255
  306
  360
  416
  474
  535
  599
  665
  734
  806
  881
  959
  1,041
  1,126
  1,215
  1,309
  1,406
  1,508
  1,614
  1,726

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,810
  4,484
  5,221
  6,018
  6,876
  7,792
  8,766
  9,795
  10,879
  12,018
  13,209
  14,454
  15,753
  17,105
  18,512
  19,975
  21,495
  23,076
  24,718
  26,425
  28,199
  30,044
  31,963
  33,961
  36,041
  38,208
  40,466
  42,821
  45,278
  47,843
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,810
  4,484
  5,221
  6,018
  6,876
  7,792
  8,766
  9,795
  10,879
  12,018
  13,209
  14,454
  15,753
  17,105
  18,512
  19,975
  21,495
  23,076
  24,718
  26,425
  28,199
  30,044
  31,963
  33,961
  36,041
  38,208
  40,466
  42,821
  45,278
  47,843
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
Average production assets, $m
  2,161
  2,544
  2,961
  3,414
  3,900
  4,420
  4,972
  5,556
  6,171
  6,817
  7,493
  8,199
  8,935
  9,702
  10,500
  11,330
  12,193
  13,089
  14,020
  14,989
  15,995
  17,041
  18,130
  19,263
  20,443
  21,672
  22,953
  24,289
  25,683
  27,137
Working capital, $m
  361
  425
  495
  570
  652
  739
  831
  928
  1,031
  1,139
  1,252
  1,370
  1,493
  1,621
  1,754
  1,893
  2,037
  2,187
  2,343
  2,504
  2,673
  2,847
  3,029
  3,219
  3,416
  3,621
  3,835
  4,058
  4,291
  4,534
Total debt, $m
  1,780
  2,245
  2,752
  3,302
  3,892
  4,524
  5,195
  5,904
  6,651
  7,435
  8,256
  9,114
  10,009
  10,940
  11,910
  12,918
  13,965
  15,054
  16,186
  17,362
  18,584
  19,855
  21,178
  22,554
  23,987
  25,480
  27,036
  28,659
  30,352
  32,119
Total liabilities, $m
  2,625
  3,090
  3,597
  4,147
  4,737
  5,369
  6,040
  6,749
  7,496
  8,280
  9,101
  9,959
  10,854
  11,785
  12,755
  13,763
  14,810
  15,899
  17,031
  18,207
  19,429
  20,700
  22,023
  23,399
  24,832
  26,325
  27,881
  29,504
  31,197
  32,964
Total equity, $m
  1,185
  1,395
  1,624
  1,872
  2,138
  2,423
  2,726
  3,046
  3,383
  3,737
  4,108
  4,495
  4,899
  5,320
  5,757
  6,212
  6,685
  7,177
  7,687
  8,218
  8,770
  9,344
  9,941
  10,562
  11,209
  11,883
  12,585
  13,317
  14,081
  14,879
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,810
  4,485
  5,221
  6,019
  6,875
  7,792
  8,766
  9,795
  10,879
  12,017
  13,209
  14,454
  15,753
  17,105
  18,512
  19,975
  21,495
  23,076
  24,718
  26,425
  28,199
  30,044
  31,964
  33,961
  36,041
  38,208
  40,466
  42,821
  45,278
  47,843
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.500
  1.610
  1.690
  1.760
  1.820
  1.870
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.160
  2.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -217
  -181
  -141
  -98
  -51
  0
  40
  82
  126
  173
  255
  306
  360
  416
  474
  535
  599
  665
  734
  806
  881
  959
  1,041
  1,126
  1,215
  1,309
  1,406
  1,508
  1,614
  1,726
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  268
  308
  351
  397
  447
  501
  558
  618
  682
  748
  772
  845
  921
  1,000
  1,083
  1,168
  1,257
  1,349
  1,445
  1,545
  1,649
  1,757
  1,869
  1,986
  2,108
  2,234
  2,366
  2,504
  2,648
  2,798
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  126
  209
  300
  397
  501
  598
  700
  807
  921
  1,027
  1,151
  1,281
  1,416
  1,557
  1,703
  1,856
  2,015
  2,180
  2,351
  2,530
  2,716
  2,910
  3,112
  3,323
  3,543
  3,772
  4,012
  4,262
  4,524
Change in working capital, $m
  58
  64
  70
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
Cash from operations, $m
  -7
  63
  140
  224
  316
  414
  505
  602
  705
  813
  914
  1,033
  1,158
  1,288
  1,424
  1,565
  1,712
  1,865
  2,024
  2,190
  2,362
  2,541
  2,728
  2,923
  3,126
  3,337
  3,558
  3,789
  4,029
  4,281
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -187
  -223
  -262
  -305
  -352
  -402
  -456
  -513
  -573
  -636
  -703
  -772
  -845
  -921
  -1,000
  -1,083
  -1,168
  -1,257
  -1,349
  -1,445
  -1,545
  -1,649
  -1,757
  -1,869
  -1,986
  -2,108
  -2,234
  -2,366
  -2,504
  -2,648
New CAPEX, $m
  -348
  -382
  -418
  -452
  -486
  -520
  -552
  -584
  -615
  -646
  -676
  -706
  -736
  -767
  -798
  -830
  -863
  -896
  -931
  -968
  -1,006
  -1,047
  -1,089
  -1,133
  -1,180
  -1,229
  -1,281
  -1,336
  -1,394
  -1,455
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -535
  -605
  -680
  -757
  -838
  -922
  -1,008
  -1,097
  -1,188
  -1,282
  -1,379
  -1,478
  -1,581
  -1,688
  -1,798
  -1,913
  -2,031
  -2,153
  -2,280
  -2,413
  -2,551
  -2,696
  -2,846
  -3,002
  -3,166
  -3,337
  -3,515
  -3,702
  -3,898
  -4,103
Free cash flow, $m
  -542
  -543
  -540
  -534
  -523
  -508
  -503
  -494
  -483
  -469
  -464
  -445
  -424
  -400
  -375
  -348
  -319
  -288
  -257
  -224
  -190
  -154
  -117
  -79
  -40
  1
  43
  86
  131
  178
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  421
  464
  507
  550
  591
  631
  671
  709
  747
  784
  821
  858
  895
  932
  969
  1,008
  1,048
  1,089
  1,131
  1,176
  1,222
  1,271
  1,322
  1,376
  1,433
  1,493
  1,556
  1,623
  1,693
  1,767
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  407
  391
  370
  346
  317
  285
  263
  239
  211
  181
  116
  81
  44
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  828
  855
  877
  896
  908
  916
  934
  948
  958
  965
  937
  939
  939
  937
  969
  1,008
  1,048
  1,089
  1,131
  1,176
  1,222
  1,271
  1,322
  1,376
  1,433
  1,493
  1,556
  1,623
  1,693
  1,767
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  286
  313
  337
  362
  385
  409
  431
  454
  475
  497
  472
  494
  515
  536
  595
  660
  729
  800
  875
  952
  1,033
  1,117
  1,205
  1,297
  1,393
  1,494
  1,599
  1,709
  1,824
  1,945
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -407
  -391
  -370
  -346
  -317
  -285
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -354
  -371
  -387
  -404
  -421
  -438
  -455
  -473
  -491
  -511
  -531
  -552
  -574
  -597
  -621
  -647
  -674
  -702
  -732
  -764
  -798
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -59
  -78
  -33
  16
  68
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143
  102
  106
  111
  116
  157
  205
  256
  309
  364
  421
  481
  543
  608
  676
  746
  820
  897
  977
  1,060
  1,148
Discount rate, %
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -54
  -66
  -25
  11
  42
  68
  61
  55
  49
  43
  25
  22
  18
  15
  16
  16
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  85.3
  74.9
  67.4
  61.8
  57.7
  54.6
  52.3
  50.4
  49.0
  47.9
  47.3
  46.9
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7
  46.7

Gibson Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated service provider to the oil and gas industry with operations across producing regions throughout North America. The Company is engaged in the movement, storage, blending, processing, marketing and distribution of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), water, oilfield waste and refined products. The Company's segments are Terminals and Pipelines, Environmental Services, Truck Transportation, Propane and NGL Marketing and Distribution, Processing and Wellsite Fluids, and Marketing. The Company transports energy products by utilizing its integrated network of terminals, pipelines, storage tanks, and trucks located throughout western Canada and through its truck transportation and injection station network in the United States. The Company also provides emulsion treating, water disposal and oilfield waste management services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow -53
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 128.6%
Total Debt to Equity 128.6%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Return On Total Capital -6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Return On Equity -14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
EBITDA Margin 2.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Net Profit Margin -3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 24.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Payout Ratio -110%

GEI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GEI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4594 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gibson Energy Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gibson Energy Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GEI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for GEI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gibson Energy Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gibson Energy Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GEI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $496 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GEI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Gibson Energy Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gibson Energy Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GEI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GEI are equal to 39.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gibson Energy Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GEI is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1057 million for Gibson Energy Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 143.014 million for Gibson Energy Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gibson Energy Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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