Intrinsic value of Ikkuma Resources Corp - IKM

Previous Close

$0.62

  Intrinsic Value

$0.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$0.62

 
Intrinsic value

$0.34

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IKM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -39.13
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -23
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -18
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  218
  223
  228
  234
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  362
  378
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  623
  653
  684
  718
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  218
  223
  228
  234
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  333
  347
  362
  378
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  623
  653
  684
  718
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.128
  0.130
  0.127
  0.128
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.128
  0.128
  0.127
  0.129
  0.127
  0.129
  0.129
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.129
  0.128
  0.129
  0.127
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.129
  0.128
  0.128
  0.129
  0.129
  0.128
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
Total debt, $m
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  159
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
Total liabilities, $m
  89
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  224
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  296
Total equity, $m
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  146
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  212
  222
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  402
  421
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  217
  223
  228
  234
  240
  248
  256
  264
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  347
  361
  378
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  516
  542
  567
  594
  622
  653
  685
  717
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.195
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  49
  51
  55
  57
  59
  63
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.0
  60.8
  47.2
  36.6
  28.2
  21.7
  16.7
  12.8
  9.7
  7.4
  5.7
  4.3
  3.3
  2.5
  1.9
  1.4
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ikkuma Resources Corp. (Ikkuma), formerly Panterra Resource Corp., is a Canada-based oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company focuses on developing properties in the foothills of Alberta and British Columbia. It holds both conventional and unconventional projects in Western Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ikkuma Resources Corp (IKM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.2
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -39.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 78.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.5%
Total Debt to Equity 19.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.7%
Return On Equity -13.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin -17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.7%
Operating Margin -75%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -67%
Pre-Tax Margin -82.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -73%
Net Profit Margin -64.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.5%
Effective Tax Rate 21.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

IKM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IKM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ikkuma Resources Corp. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ikkuma Resources Corp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IKM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for IKM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ikkuma Resources Corp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ikkuma Resources Corp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IKM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 160.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IKM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ikkuma Resources Corp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ikkuma Resources Corp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IKM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IKM are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ikkuma Resources Corp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IKM is equal to -42.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $128 million for Ikkuma Resources Corp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 94.242 million for Ikkuma Resources Corp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ikkuma Resources Corp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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Financial statements of IKM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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