Intrinsic value of Keyera Corp. - KEY

Previous Close

$36.90

  Intrinsic Value

$2.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$36.90

 
Intrinsic value

$2.19

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.60
  21.74
  20.07
  18.56
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
Revenue, $m
  3,101
  3,775
  4,533
  5,374
  6,299
  7,305
  8,393
  9,559
  10,802
  12,121
  13,513
  14,977
  16,513
  18,120
  19,796
  21,544
  23,364
  25,257
  27,225
  29,270
  31,396
  33,605
  35,900
  38,287
  40,770
  43,353
  46,041
  48,841
  51,759
  54,800
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,728
  3,320
  3,985
  4,723
  5,535
  6,418
  7,373
  8,397
  9,488
  10,646
  11,862
  13,148
  14,496
  15,906
  17,378
  18,913
  20,510
  22,172
  23,900
  25,695
  27,561
  29,500
  31,515
  33,610
  35,790
  38,057
  40,417
  42,875
  45,436
  48,106
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,728
  3,320
  3,985
  4,723
  5,535
  6,418
  7,373
  8,397
  9,488
  10,646
  11,862
  13,148
  14,496
  15,906
  17,378
  18,913
  20,510
  22,172
  23,900
  25,695
  27,561
  29,500
  31,515
  33,610
  35,790
  38,057
  40,417
  42,875
  45,436
  48,106
Operating income, $m
  373
  456
  548
  651
  764
  887
  1,020
  1,162
  1,314
  1,475
  1,651
  1,830
  2,017
  2,213
  2,418
  2,632
  2,854
  3,085
  3,326
  3,575
  3,835
  4,105
  4,385
  4,677
  4,980
  5,296
  5,624
  5,966
  6,322
  6,694
EBITDA, $m
  589
  717
  861
  1,020
  1,196
  1,387
  1,593
  1,815
  2,051
  2,301
  2,565
  2,843
  3,135
  3,440
  3,758
  4,090
  4,436
  4,795
  5,169
  5,557
  5,960
  6,380
  6,816
  7,269
  7,740
  8,230
  8,741
  9,272
  9,826
  10,404
Interest expense (income), $m
  84
  86
  122
  164
  211
  263
  320
  382
  449
  521
  597
  679
  765
  855
  950
  1,049
  1,153
  1,260
  1,373
  1,490
  1,611
  1,737
  1,868
  2,005
  2,146
  2,294
  2,447
  2,606
  2,772
  2,945
  3,125
Earnings before tax, $m
  288
  334
  384
  440
  501
  567
  638
  713
  793
  878
  972
  1,065
  1,162
  1,263
  1,369
  1,479
  1,594
  1,713
  1,836
  1,964
  2,098
  2,237
  2,381
  2,531
  2,686
  2,849
  3,018
  3,194
  3,377
  3,569
Tax expense, $m
  78
  90
  104
  119
  135
  153
  172
  193
  214
  237
  262
  287
  314
  341
  370
  399
  430
  462
  496
  530
  566
  604
  643
  683
  725
  769
  815
  862
  912
  964
Net income, $m
  210
  243
  281
  322
  366
  414
  466
  521
  579
  641
  709
  777
  848
  922
  999
  1,080
  1,163
  1,250
  1,340
  1,434
  1,531
  1,633
  1,738
  1,847
  1,961
  2,080
  2,203
  2,332
  2,466
  2,605

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,105
  7,432
  8,923
  10,579
  12,399
  14,381
  16,521
  18,817
  21,265
  23,860
  26,601
  29,483
  32,506
  35,668
  38,969
  42,410
  45,993
  49,719
  53,593
  57,619
  61,803
  66,151
  70,670
  75,369
  80,255
  85,340
  90,632
  96,144
  101,887
  107,874
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,105
  7,432
  8,923
  10,579
  12,399
  14,381
  16,521
  18,817
  21,265
  23,860
  26,601
  29,483
  32,506
  35,668
  38,969
  42,410
  45,993
  49,719
  53,593
  57,619
  61,803
  66,151
  70,670
  75,369
  80,255
  85,340
  90,632
  96,144
  101,887
  107,874
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
Average production assets, $m
  4,828
  5,878
  7,058
  8,368
  9,807
  11,374
  13,068
  14,883
  16,819
  18,872
  21,040
  23,320
  25,711
  28,212
  30,823
  33,545
  36,378
  39,325
  42,390
  45,574
  48,883
  52,322
  55,897
  59,613
  63,478
  67,500
  71,686
  76,046
  80,588
  85,324
Working capital, $m
  112
  136
  163
  193
  227
  263
  302
  344
  389
  436
  486
  539
  594
  652
  713
  776
  841
  909
  980
  1,054
  1,130
  1,210
  1,292
  1,378
  1,468
  1,561
  1,657
  1,758
  1,863
  1,973
Total debt, $m
  2,445
  3,277
  4,212
  5,250
  6,391
  7,634
  8,976
  10,415
  11,950
  13,577
  15,296
  17,103
  18,998
  20,981
  23,051
  25,208
  27,454
  29,791
  32,220
  34,744
  37,367
  40,094
  42,927
  45,873
  48,937
  52,125
  55,443
  58,899
  62,500
  66,254
Total liabilities, $m
  3,828
  4,660
  5,595
  6,633
  7,774
  9,017
  10,359
  11,798
  13,333
  14,960
  16,679
  18,486
  20,381
  22,364
  24,434
  26,591
  28,837
  31,174
  33,603
  36,127
  38,750
  41,477
  44,310
  47,256
  50,320
  53,508
  56,826
  60,282
  63,883
  67,637
Total equity, $m
  2,277
  2,772
  3,328
  3,946
  4,625
  5,364
  6,162
  7,019
  7,932
  8,900
  9,922
  10,997
  12,125
  13,304
  14,536
  15,819
  17,155
  18,545
  19,990
  21,492
  23,052
  24,674
  26,360
  28,112
  29,935
  31,832
  33,806
  35,862
  38,004
  40,237
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,105
  7,432
  8,923
  10,579
  12,399
  14,381
  16,521
  18,817
  21,265
  23,860
  26,601
  29,483
  32,506
  35,668
  38,970
  42,410
  45,992
  49,719
  53,593
  57,619
  61,802
  66,151
  70,670
  75,368
  80,255
  85,340
  90,632
  96,144
  101,887
  107,874
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.070
  1.180
  1.270
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.480
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  210
  243
  281
  322
  366
  414
  466
  521
  579
  641
  709
  777
  848
  922
  999
  1,080
  1,163
  1,250
  1,340
  1,434
  1,531
  1,633
  1,738
  1,847
  1,961
  2,080
  2,203
  2,332
  2,466
  2,605
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  215
  261
  312
  369
  432
  500
  574
  653
  737
  826
  915
  1,014
  1,118
  1,227
  1,340
  1,458
  1,582
  1,710
  1,843
  1,981
  2,125
  2,275
  2,430
  2,592
  2,760
  2,935
  3,117
  3,306
  3,504
  3,710
Funds from operations, $m
  425
  504
  593
  691
  798
  914
  1,039
  1,173
  1,316
  1,467
  1,624
  1,791
  1,966
  2,149
  2,340
  2,538
  2,745
  2,960
  3,183
  3,416
  3,657
  3,908
  4,168
  4,439
  4,721
  5,014
  5,320
  5,638
  5,969
  6,315
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
Cash from operations, $m
  404
  480
  566
  660
  765
  878
  1,000
  1,131
  1,271
  1,419
  1,574
  1,738
  1,911
  2,091
  2,279
  2,475
  2,679
  2,892
  3,113
  3,342
  3,580
  3,828
  4,086
  4,353
  4,632
  4,921
  5,223
  5,537
  5,864
  6,206
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -170
  -210
  -256
  -307
  -364
  -426
  -495
  -568
  -647
  -731
  -821
  -915
  -1,014
  -1,118
  -1,227
  -1,340
  -1,458
  -1,582
  -1,710
  -1,843
  -1,981
  -2,125
  -2,275
  -2,430
  -2,592
  -2,760
  -2,935
  -3,117
  -3,306
  -3,504
New CAPEX, $m
  -922
  -1,050
  -1,180
  -1,310
  -1,440
  -1,567
  -1,693
  -1,816
  -1,936
  -2,053
  -2,168
  -2,280
  -2,391
  -2,501
  -2,611
  -2,722
  -2,833
  -2,947
  -3,064
  -3,185
  -3,309
  -3,439
  -3,574
  -3,716
  -3,865
  -4,022
  -4,186
  -4,360
  -4,543
  -4,735
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,092
  -1,260
  -1,436
  -1,617
  -1,804
  -1,993
  -2,188
  -2,384
  -2,583
  -2,784
  -2,989
  -3,195
  -3,405
  -3,619
  -3,838
  -4,062
  -4,291
  -4,529
  -4,774
  -5,028
  -5,290
  -5,564
  -5,849
  -6,146
  -6,457
  -6,782
  -7,121
  -7,477
  -7,849
  -8,239
Free cash flow, $m
  -688
  -779
  -869
  -956
  -1,039
  -1,116
  -1,187
  -1,253
  -1,312
  -1,365
  -1,414
  -1,456
  -1,494
  -1,528
  -1,558
  -1,586
  -1,612
  -1,637
  -1,661
  -1,686
  -1,710
  -1,736
  -1,764
  -1,793
  -1,825
  -1,860
  -1,898
  -1,939
  -1,985
  -2,034
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  729
  832
  935
  1,038
  1,141
  1,243
  1,342
  1,439
  1,535
  1,627
  1,718
  1,807
  1,895
  1,983
  2,070
  2,157
  2,246
  2,336
  2,429
  2,524
  2,623
  2,726
  2,834
  2,946
  3,064
  3,188
  3,318
  3,456
  3,601
  3,754
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  225
  252
  276
  296
  313
  325
  333
  336
  334
  327
  313
  298
  279
  257
  232
  204
  173
  140
  105
  68
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  954
  1,084
  1,211
  1,334
  1,454
  1,568
  1,675
  1,775
  1,869
  1,954
  2,031
  2,105
  2,174
  2,240
  2,302
  2,361
  2,419
  2,476
  2,534
  2,592
  2,652
  2,726
  2,834
  2,946
  3,064
  3,188
  3,318
  3,456
  3,601
  3,754
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  265
  304
  341
  378
  415
  452
  487
  522
  556
  590
  617
  649
  681
  712
  743
  775
  807
  839
  872
  906
  942
  990
  1,070
  1,153
  1,239
  1,328
  1,420
  1,517
  1,616
  1,720
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -435
  -495
  -556
  -618
  -679
  -739
  -798
  -856
  -913
  -968
  -1,022
  -1,075
  -1,128
  -1,179
  -1,231
  -1,283
  -1,336
  -1,390
  -1,445
  -1,502
  -1,561
  -1,622
  -1,686
  -1,753
  -1,823
  -1,896
  -1,974
  -2,056
  -2,142
  -2,233
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -170
  -191
  -215
  -239
  -264
  -288
  -311
  -334
  -356
  -378
  -405
  -426
  -447
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -595
  -619
  -632
  -616
  -600
  -584
  -569
  -554
  -539
  -526
  -513
Discount rate, %
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -176
  -176
  -173
  -168
  -159
  -149
  -137
  -126
  -112
  -98
  -84
  -71
  -60
  -49
  -39
  -31
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.1
  94.5
  92.3
  90.3
  88.6
  87.1
  85.8
  84.7
  83.7
  82.9
  82.2
  81.6
  81.1
  80.7
  80.3
  80.0
  79.8
  79.7
  79.6
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5
  79.5

Keyera Corp. is engaged in energy midstream businesses, and operates in oil and gas sector between upstream and downstream sectors. The Company is organized into two business units: Gathering and Processing Business Unit and Liquids Business Unit. The Gathering and Processing Business Unit owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products and separate the economic components, primarily natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Liquids Business Unit consists of Liquids Infrastructure and Marketing segments. The Liquids Infrastructure segment owns and operates a network of facilities for processing, fractionation, storage and transportation of the by-products of natural gas processing, including NGLs. The Marketing segment markets a range of products associated with its infrastructure business lines, primarily propane, butane, condensate and iso-octane, and also engages in crude oil midstream activities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keyera Corp. (KEY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.6
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -44.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 90.8%
Total Debt to Equity 94%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
EBITDA Margin 22.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 126.3%

KEY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2509 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keyera Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Keyera Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for KEY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keyera Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keyera Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Keyera Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keyera Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEY are equal to 155.7%.

Life of production assets of 23 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keyera Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEY is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1842 million for Keyera Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 204.122 million for Keyera Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keyera Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.5 billion.

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