Intrinsic value of Metro Inc. - MRU

Previous Close

$40.70

  Intrinsic Value

$41.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+1%

Previous close

$40.70

 
Intrinsic value

$41.14

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MRU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.61
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  12,788
  13,044
  13,344
  13,687
  14,072
  14,498
  14,966
  15,476
  16,028
  16,622
  17,260
  17,943
  18,671
  19,446
  20,270
  21,145
  22,071
  23,052
  24,089
  25,185
  26,343
  27,564
  28,851
  30,209
  31,639
  33,145
  34,731
  36,400
  38,157
  40,005
  41,948
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  11,462
  11,721
  12,017
  12,349
  12,718
  13,122
  13,562
  14,039
  14,552
  15,103
  15,497
  16,126
  16,796
  17,508
  18,263
  19,063
  19,910
  20,806
  21,753
  22,752
  23,807
  24,919
  26,092
  27,327
  28,628
  29,997
  31,439
  32,956
  34,552
  36,231
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  833
  854
  876
  897
  920
  943
  966
  991
  1,015
  1,041
  1,067
  1,093
  1,121
  1,149
  1,177
  1,207
  1,237
  1,268
  1,300
  1,332
  1,366
  1,400
  1,435
  1,470
  1,507
  1,545
  1,584
  1,623
  1,664
  1,705
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,039
  12,295
  12,575
  12,893
  13,246
  13,638
  14,065
  14,528
  15,030
  15,567
  16,144
  16,564
  17,219
  17,917
  18,657
  19,440
  20,270
  21,147
  22,074
  23,053
  24,084
  25,173
  26,319
  27,527
  28,797
  30,135
  31,542
  33,023
  34,579
  36,216
  37,936
Operating income, $m
  749
  749
  769
  794
  825
  861
  901
  947
  998
  1,055
  1,116
  1,379
  1,451
  1,530
  1,614
  1,704
  1,801
  1,905
  2,015
  2,133
  2,258
  2,391
  2,532
  2,682
  2,841
  3,010
  3,188
  3,377
  3,577
  3,788
  4,012
EBITDA, $m
  932
  1,013
  1,034
  1,062
  1,094
  1,132
  1,175
  1,224
  1,278
  1,337
  1,402
  1,473
  1,549
  1,631
  1,720
  1,815
  1,917
  2,025
  2,141
  2,265
  2,396
  2,535
  2,684
  2,841
  3,007
  3,184
  3,370
  3,568
  3,777
  3,998
  4,231
Interest expense (income), $m
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  299
  317
  336
  357
  378
Earnings before tax, $m
  778
  686
  703
  725
  752
  783
  819
  859
  905
  954
  1,009
  1,264
  1,329
  1,399
  1,474
  1,555
  1,642
  1,734
  1,833
  1,939
  2,052
  2,171
  2,299
  2,434
  2,577
  2,729
  2,890
  3,060
  3,241
  3,432
  3,634
Tax expense, $m
  192
  185
  190
  196
  203
  211
  221
  232
  244
  258
  272
  341
  359
  378
  398
  420
  443
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  621
  657
  696
  737
  780
  826
  875
  927
  981
Net income, $m
  572
  501
  513
  529
  549
  572
  598
  627
  660
  697
  737
  923
  970
  1,021
  1,076
  1,135
  1,198
  1,266
  1,338
  1,416
  1,498
  1,585
  1,678
  1,777
  1,881
  1,992
  2,110
  2,234
  2,366
  2,505
  2,653

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,606
  5,689
  5,819
  5,969
  6,137
  6,323
  6,527
  6,749
  6,990
  7,249
  7,527
  7,825
  8,143
  8,481
  8,840
  9,221
  9,625
  10,053
  10,506
  10,984
  11,488
  12,021
  12,582
  13,174
  13,798
  14,455
  15,146
  15,874
  16,640
  17,446
  18,294
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,578
  5,689
  5,819
  5,969
  6,137
  6,323
  6,527
  6,749
  6,990
  7,249
  7,527
  7,825
  8,143
  8,481
  8,840
  9,221
  9,625
  10,053
  10,506
  10,984
  11,488
  12,021
  12,582
  13,174
  13,798
  14,455
  15,146
  15,874
  16,640
  17,446
  18,294
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
  2.293
Average production assets, $m
  1,122
  1,148
  1,174
  1,204
  1,238
  1,276
  1,317
  1,362
  1,410
  1,463
  1,519
  1,579
  1,643
  1,711
  1,784
  1,861
  1,942
  2,029
  2,120
  2,216
  2,318
  2,426
  2,539
  2,658
  2,784
  2,917
  3,056
  3,203
  3,358
  3,520
  3,691
Working capital, $m
  125
  117
  120
  123
  127
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  343
  360
  378
Total debt, $m
  1,248
  1,287
  1,355
  1,433
  1,520
  1,617
  1,724
  1,839
  1,965
  2,100
  2,245
  2,400
  2,565
  2,741
  2,929
  3,127
  3,338
  3,561
  3,796
  4,045
  4,308
  4,586
  4,878
  5,187
  5,512
  5,854
  6,214
  6,594
  6,993
  7,413
  7,854
Total liabilities, $m
  2,926
  2,964
  3,032
  3,110
  3,197
  3,294
  3,401
  3,516
  3,642
  3,777
  3,922
  4,077
  4,242
  4,418
  4,606
  4,804
  5,015
  5,238
  5,473
  5,722
  5,985
  6,263
  6,555
  6,864
  7,189
  7,531
  7,891
  8,271
  8,670
  9,090
  9,531
Total equity, $m
  2,681
  2,725
  2,787
  2,859
  2,940
  3,029
  3,126
  3,233
  3,348
  3,472
  3,606
  3,748
  3,900
  4,062
  4,234
  4,417
  4,611
  4,816
  5,032
  5,261
  5,503
  5,758
  6,027
  6,310
  6,609
  6,924
  7,255
  7,604
  7,971
  8,357
  8,763
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,607
  5,689
  5,819
  5,969
  6,137
  6,323
  6,527
  6,749
  6,990
  7,249
  7,528
  7,825
  8,142
  8,480
  8,840
  9,221
  9,626
  10,054
  10,505
  10,983
  11,488
  12,021
  12,582
  13,174
  13,798
  14,455
  15,146
  15,875
  16,641
  17,447
  18,294
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.465
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.476
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  572
  501
  513
  529
  549
  572
  598
  627
  660
  697
  737
  923
  970
  1,021
  1,076
  1,135
  1,198
  1,266
  1,338
  1,416
  1,498
  1,585
  1,678
  1,777
  1,881
  1,992
  2,110
  2,234
  2,366
  2,505
  2,653
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  183
  264
  265
  267
  269
  271
  274
  277
  279
  283
  286
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Funds from operations, $m
  477
  765
  779
  797
  818
  843
  872
  904
  940
  979
  1,023
  1,017
  1,068
  1,123
  1,182
  1,246
  1,314
  1,387
  1,465
  1,547
  1,636
  1,729
  1,829
  1,935
  2,047
  2,166
  2,292
  2,425
  2,566
  2,715
  2,872
Change in working capital, $m
  -230
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  707
  762
  776
  794
  815
  839
  868
  899
  935
  974
  1,017
  1,011
  1,061
  1,116
  1,175
  1,238
  1,306
  1,378
  1,455
  1,538
  1,625
  1,718
  1,817
  1,923
  2,034
  2,152
  2,277
  2,410
  2,550
  2,698
  2,855
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
New CAPEX, $m
  -314
  -26
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -328
  -93
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -346
  -363
  -381
Free cash flow, $m
  379
  670
  681
  693
  709
  728
  750
  776
  805
  838
  874
  860
  903
  950
  1,000
  1,055
  1,113
  1,176
  1,243
  1,315
  1,392
  1,473
  1,560
  1,652
  1,750
  1,854
  1,964
  2,081
  2,205
  2,336
  2,474
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  80
  56
  68
  78
  87
  97
  106
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -328
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -246
  56
  68
  78
  87
  97
  106
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  293
  308
  325
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  133
  725
  750
  771
  796
  825
  857
  892
  931
  973
  1,019
  1,015
  1,069
  1,126
  1,188
  1,254
  1,324
  1,399
  1,479
  1,564
  1,654
  1,750
  1,852
  1,960
  2,075
  2,196
  2,324
  2,460
  2,604
  2,755
  2,916
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -406
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  682
  687
  700
  716
  736
  759
  785
  815
  849
  885
  873
  917
  964
  1,016
  1,071
  1,130
  1,194
  1,262
  1,335
  1,413
  1,495
  1,583
  1,677
  1,776
  1,881
  1,993
  2,111
  2,237
  2,369
  2,510
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  654
  629
  609
  590
  570
  551
  531
  510
  487
  464
  414
  391
  367
  341
  314
  287
  260
  232
  206
  180
  155
  131
  110
  90
  73
  58
  45
  35
  26
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

METRO INC. is engaged in food and pharmaceutical distribution. The Company operates under various grocery banners in the supermarket and discount segments. The Company operates or supplies a network of over 940 food stores under various banners, including Metro, Metro Plus, Super C, Food Basics, Adonis and Premiere Moisson, as well as approximately 260 drugstores under the Brunet, Metro Pharmacy and Drug Basics banners. The Adonis banner, which has over 10 stores, is specialized in perishables, and Mediterranean and Middle-Eastern products. It also operates Premiere Moisson, a company specialized in bakery, pastry, charcutery and other food offerings prepared on an artisanal basis. Premiere Moisson sells its products to its stores, to restaurant and distribution chains, as well as directly to consumers. It also acts as franchisor and distributor for over 180 franchised Brunet Plus, Brunet, Brunet Clinique and Clini Plus drugstores, owned by independent pharmacists.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Metro Inc. (MRU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.9%
Total Debt to Equity 46.5%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Equity 21.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Effective Tax Rate 24.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Payout Ratio 22.2%

MRU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MRU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12788 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Metro Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Metro Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MRU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MRU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Metro Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Metro Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MRU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $813 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MRU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Metro Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Metro Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MRU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MRU are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Metro Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MRU is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2681 million for Metro Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 227.735 million for Metro Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Metro Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.3 billion.

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Financial statements of MRU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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