Intrinsic value of New Gold Inc. - NGD

Previous Close

$4.61

  Intrinsic Value

$1.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$4.61

 
Intrinsic value

$1.22

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.05
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  924
  951
  980
  1,013
  1,048
  1,086
  1,127
  1,170
  1,217
  1,267
  1,320
  1,376
  1,436
  1,499
  1,566
  1,637
  1,712
  1,791
  1,874
  1,962
  2,054
  2,152
  2,255
  2,363
  2,476
  2,596
  2,722
  2,854
  2,994
  3,140
  3,294
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,202
  1,239
  1,280
  1,324
  1,372
  1,424
  1,479
  1,538
  1,601
  1,669
  1,740
  1,815
  1,895
  1,980
  2,069
  2,164
  2,264
  2,369
  2,480
  2,597
  2,720
  2,850
  2,986
  3,130
  3,281
  3,441
  3,608
  3,784
  3,969
  4,164
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  903
  1,202
  1,239
  1,280
  1,324
  1,372
  1,424
  1,479
  1,538
  1,601
  1,669
  1,740
  1,815
  1,895
  1,980
  2,069
  2,164
  2,264
  2,369
  2,480
  2,597
  2,720
  2,850
  2,986
  3,130
  3,281
  3,441
  3,608
  3,784
  3,969
  4,164
Operating income, $m
  21
  -251
  -259
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -414
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -518
  -542
  -568
  -595
  -624
  -654
  -685
  -719
  -754
  -790
  -829
  -870
EBITDA, $m
  366
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
  347
  364
Interest expense (income), $m
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  182
  194
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  281
  298
  317
  336
  356
  378
  400
  424
  449
  475
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -330
  -342
  -356
  -371
  -388
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -489
  -513
  -539
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -807
  -849
  -894
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,154
  -1,214
  -1,278
  -1,345
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -330
  -342
  -356
  -371
  -388
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -489
  -513
  -539
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -807
  -849
  -894
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,154
  -1,214
  -1,278
  -1,345

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  251
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,314
  5,196
  5,357
  5,534
  5,726
  5,933
  6,156
  6,396
  6,651
  6,923
  7,213
  7,521
  7,848
  8,193
  8,559
  8,946
  9,355
  9,786
  10,241
  10,721
  11,227
  11,759
  12,320
  12,911
  13,532
  14,186
  14,874
  15,598
  16,359
  17,159
  18,000
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,063
  5,196
  5,357
  5,534
  5,726
  5,933
  6,156
  6,396
  6,651
  6,923
  7,213
  7,521
  7,848
  8,193
  8,559
  8,946
  9,355
  9,786
  10,241
  10,721
  11,227
  11,759
  12,320
  12,911
  13,532
  14,186
  14,874
  15,598
  16,359
  17,159
  18,000
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
Average production assets, $m
  4,049
  4,166
  4,296
  4,438
  4,592
  4,758
  4,937
  5,129
  5,334
  5,552
  5,784
  6,031
  6,293
  6,570
  6,864
  7,174
  7,502
  7,848
  8,213
  8,597
  9,003
  9,430
  9,880
  10,353
  10,852
  11,376
  11,928
  12,508
  13,118
  13,760
  14,434
Working capital, $m
  317
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
Total debt, $m
  1,202
  1,266
  1,346
  1,434
  1,529
  1,632
  1,743
  1,861
  1,988
  2,123
  2,267
  2,419
  2,581
  2,753
  2,934
  3,126
  3,329
  3,543
  3,769
  4,007
  4,257
  4,522
  4,800
  5,093
  5,401
  5,725
  6,067
  6,426
  6,803
  7,200
  7,617
Total liabilities, $m
  2,513
  2,577
  2,657
  2,745
  2,840
  2,943
  3,054
  3,172
  3,299
  3,434
  3,578
  3,730
  3,892
  4,064
  4,245
  4,437
  4,640
  4,854
  5,080
  5,318
  5,568
  5,833
  6,111
  6,404
  6,712
  7,036
  7,378
  7,737
  8,114
  8,511
  8,928
Total equity, $m
  2,801
  2,619
  2,700
  2,789
  2,886
  2,990
  3,103
  3,223
  3,352
  3,489
  3,636
  3,791
  3,955
  4,130
  4,314
  4,509
  4,715
  4,932
  5,162
  5,403
  5,658
  5,927
  6,209
  6,507
  6,820
  7,150
  7,497
  7,861
  8,245
  8,648
  9,072
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,314
  5,196
  5,357
  5,534
  5,726
  5,933
  6,157
  6,395
  6,651
  6,923
  7,214
  7,521
  7,847
  8,194
  8,559
  8,946
  9,355
  9,786
  10,242
  10,721
  11,226
  11,760
  12,320
  12,911
  13,532
  14,186
  14,875
  15,598
  16,359
  17,159
  18,000
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.429
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -330
  -342
  -356
  -371
  -388
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -489
  -513
  -539
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -807
  -849
  -894
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,154
  -1,214
  -1,278
  -1,345
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  345
  356
  367
  379
  392
  407
  422
  438
  456
  475
  494
  515
  538
  562
  587
  613
  641
  671
  702
  735
  769
  806
  844
  885
  927
  972
  1,019
  1,069
  1,121
  1,176
  1,234
Funds from operations, $m
  346
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  6
  3
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -111
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  381
  24
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  11
  8
  5
  2
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -122
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -346
  -356
  -367
  -379
  -392
  -407
  -422
  -438
  -456
  -475
  -494
  -515
  -538
  -562
  -587
  -613
  -641
  -671
  -702
  -735
  -769
  -806
  -844
  -885
  -927
  -972
  -1,019
  -1,069
  -1,121
  -1,176
New CAPEX, $m
  -766
  -117
  -130
  -142
  -154
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -232
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -293
  -310
  -328
  -346
  -365
  -385
  -405
  -427
  -450
  -474
  -498
  -524
  -552
  -580
  -610
  -641
  -674
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -768
  -463
  -486
  -509
  -533
  -558
  -586
  -614
  -643
  -674
  -707
  -741
  -777
  -815
  -855
  -897
  -941
  -987
  -1,036
  -1,087
  -1,140
  -1,196
  -1,256
  -1,318
  -1,383
  -1,451
  -1,524
  -1,599
  -1,679
  -1,762
  -1,850
Free cash flow, $m
  -387
  -440
  -463
  -488
  -515
  -542
  -572
  -602
  -635
  -669
  -705
  -743
  -783
  -824
  -868
  -915
  -963
  -1,014
  -1,068
  -1,125
  -1,184
  -1,247
  -1,312
  -1,381
  -1,454
  -1,530
  -1,610
  -1,694
  -1,782
  -1,875
  -1,972
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  135
  64
  80
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
  377
  397
  417
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  399
  424
  445
  468
  492
  518
  545
  573
  603
  635
  668
  703
  741
  780
  821
  864
  910
  958
  1,009
  1,062
  1,118
  1,176
  1,238
  1,303
  1,371
  1,443
  1,519
  1,598
  1,681
  1,769
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  173
  463
  504
  533
  563
  595
  629
  664
  700
  738
  779
  821
  865
  913
  962
  1,013
  1,067
  1,124
  1,184
  1,247
  1,313
  1,382
  1,454
  1,531
  1,611
  1,695
  1,784
  1,878
  1,975
  2,078
  2,186
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -202
  23
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  184
  193
  203
  213
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  -399
  -424
  -445
  -468
  -492
  -518
  -545
  -573
  -603
  -635
  -668
  -703
  -741
  -780
  -821
  -864
  -910
  -958
  -1,009
  -1,062
  -1,118
  -1,176
  -1,238
  -1,303
  -1,371
  -1,443
  -1,519
  -1,598
  -1,681
  -1,769
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  251
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -125
  -383
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -461
  -484
  -508
  -534
  -561
  -590
  -621
  -653
  -687
  -723
  -761
  -801
  -843
  -887
  -933
  -982
  -1,034
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
  -1,269
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,478
  -1,555
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -119
  -346
  -342
  -336
  -329
  -320
  -310
  -298
  -285
  -270
  -254
  -236
  -218
  -199
  -180
  -161
  -142
  -124
  -107
  -90
  -75
  -62
  -50
  -40
  -31
  -23
  -17
  -13
  -9
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.8
  73.3
  62.4
  53.0
  44.9
  38.0
  32.0
  26.9
  22.6
  19.0
  15.9
  13.3
  11.1
  9.3
  7.7
  6.4
  5.3
  4.4
  3.7
  3.0
  2.5
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4

New Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold mining company. The Company is engaged in the development and operation of mineral properties. Its segments include New Afton, Mesquite, Peak Mines, Cerro San Pedro, Corporate and Other. It has operating mines in Canada, the United States, Australia and Mexico; development projects in Canada, and a stream on gold production from a development property in Chile. Its development projects include Rainy River and Blackwater projects, which are located in Canada. Its Rainy River project is a gold project located approximately 65 kilometers northwest of Fort Frances in northwestern Ontario, Canada. The Rainy River comprises approximately 192 square kilometers of various rights and claims. The Blackwater Project is located approximately 160 kilometers southwest of the city of Prince George in central British Columbia, Canada and 110 kilometers southwest of the town of Vanderhoof. The Blackwater project covers an area of over 1,000 square kilometers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Gold Inc. (NGD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 592.1
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 42.9%
Total Debt to Equity 42.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Return On Equity 0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.1%
EBITDA Margin 45.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.2%
Effective Tax Rate -33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $924 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Gold Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New Gold Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for NGD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Gold Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Gold Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 126.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for New Gold Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Gold Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGD are equal to 438.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Gold Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGD is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2801 million for New Gold Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 574.713 million for New Gold Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Gold Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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Financial statements of NGD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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