Intrinsic value of Pembina Pipeline Corporation - PPL

Previous Close

$45.40

  Intrinsic Value

$4.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$45.40

 
Intrinsic value

$4.12

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PPL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 22.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  4,576
  4,900
  5,236
  5,586
  5,949
  6,328
  6,721
  7,131
  7,559
  8,004
  8,468
  8,953
  9,459
  9,987
  10,539
  11,115
  11,719
  12,349
  13,010
  13,700
  14,424
  15,181
  15,975
  16,806
  17,677
  18,590
  19,547
  20,551
  21,603
  22,707
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,899
  4,175
  4,461
  4,759
  5,069
  5,391
  5,727
  6,076
  6,440
  6,819
  7,215
  7,628
  8,059
  8,509
  8,979
  9,470
  9,984
  10,522
  11,084
  11,673
  12,289
  12,934
  13,610
  14,319
  15,061
  15,839
  16,654
  17,509
  18,406
  19,346
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,899
  4,175
  4,461
  4,759
  5,069
  5,391
  5,727
  6,076
  6,440
  6,819
  7,215
  7,628
  8,059
  8,509
  8,979
  9,470
  9,984
  10,522
  11,084
  11,673
  12,289
  12,934
  13,610
  14,319
  15,061
  15,839
  16,654
  17,509
  18,406
  19,346
Operating income, $m
  677
  725
  775
  827
  881
  936
  995
  1,055
  1,119
  1,185
  1,253
  1,325
  1,400
  1,478
  1,560
  1,645
  1,734
  1,828
  1,925
  2,028
  2,135
  2,247
  2,364
  2,487
  2,616
  2,751
  2,893
  3,042
  3,197
  3,361
EBITDA, $m
  1,147
  1,228
  1,312
  1,399
  1,491
  1,585
  1,684
  1,787
  1,894
  2,005
  2,122
  2,243
  2,370
  2,502
  2,640
  2,785
  2,936
  3,094
  3,259
  3,432
  3,614
  3,803
  4,002
  4,210
  4,429
  4,657
  4,897
  5,149
  5,412
  5,689
Interest expense (income), $m
  163
  182
  203
  226
  249
  273
  298
  325
  352
  380
  410
  441
  473
  506
  541
  578
  616
  656
  697
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  992
  1,049
  1,110
  1,173
  1,239
  1,308
  1,381
Earnings before tax, $m
  495
  522
  549
  578
  607
  638
  670
  704
  739
  775
  813
  852
  894
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,130
  1,184
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,495
  1,567
  1,642
  1,720
  1,803
  1,889
  1,979
Tax expense, $m
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  534
Net income, $m
  361
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  489
  514
  539
  566
  593
  622
  652
  684
  717
  751
  787
  825
  865
  906
  949
  994
  1,042
  1,092
  1,144
  1,199
  1,256
  1,316
  1,379
  1,445

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,057
  17,193
  18,373
  19,599
  20,875
  22,202
  23,584
  25,022
  26,521
  28,084
  29,713
  31,413
  33,188
  35,041
  36,978
  39,002
  41,118
  43,331
  45,648
  48,072
  50,610
  53,268
  56,052
  58,969
  62,025
  65,229
  68,587
  72,108
  75,801
  79,673
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,057
  17,193
  18,373
  19,599
  20,875
  22,202
  23,584
  25,022
  26,521
  28,084
  29,713
  31,413
  33,188
  35,041
  36,978
  39,002
  41,118
  43,331
  45,648
  48,072
  50,610
  53,268
  56,052
  58,969
  62,025
  65,229
  68,587
  72,108
  75,801
  79,673
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
Average production assets, $m
  14,077
  15,072
  16,106
  17,182
  18,300
  19,464
  20,675
  21,936
  23,250
  24,620
  26,048
  27,539
  29,094
  30,719
  32,417
  34,191
  36,046
  37,987
  40,017
  42,143
  44,368
  46,698
  49,138
  51,695
  54,375
  57,184
  60,128
  63,215
  66,451
  69,846
Working capital, $m
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -215
  -228
  -242
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -416
  -438
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -691
  -727
Total debt, $m
  4,624
  5,132
  5,661
  6,210
  6,782
  7,377
  7,995
  8,640
  9,311
  10,011
  10,741
  11,503
  12,298
  13,128
  13,996
  14,903
  15,851
  16,843
  17,880
  18,966
  20,103
  21,294
  22,541
  23,848
  25,217
  26,653
  28,157
  29,735
  31,389
  33,123
Total liabilities, $m
  7,194
  7,702
  8,231
  8,780
  9,352
  9,947
  10,565
  11,210
  11,881
  12,581
  13,311
  14,073
  14,868
  15,698
  16,566
  17,473
  18,421
  19,413
  20,450
  21,536
  22,673
  23,864
  25,111
  26,418
  27,787
  29,223
  30,727
  32,305
  33,959
  35,693
Total equity, $m
  8,864
  9,490
  10,142
  10,819
  11,523
  12,256
  13,018
  13,812
  14,640
  15,502
  16,402
  17,340
  18,320
  19,343
  20,412
  21,529
  22,697
  23,919
  25,198
  26,536
  27,937
  29,404
  30,941
  32,551
  34,238
  36,006
  37,860
  39,804
  41,842
  43,979
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,058
  17,192
  18,373
  19,599
  20,875
  22,203
  23,583
  25,022
  26,521
  28,083
  29,713
  31,413
  33,188
  35,041
  36,978
  39,002
  41,118
  43,332
  45,648
  48,072
  50,610
  53,268
  56,052
  58,969
  62,025
  65,229
  68,587
  72,109
  75,801
  79,672
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  361
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  489
  514
  539
  566
  593
  622
  652
  684
  717
  751
  787
  825
  865
  906
  949
  994
  1,042
  1,092
  1,144
  1,199
  1,256
  1,316
  1,379
  1,445
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  469
  502
  537
  573
  610
  649
  689
  731
  775
  821
  868
  918
  970
  1,024
  1,081
  1,140
  1,202
  1,266
  1,334
  1,405
  1,479
  1,557
  1,638
  1,723
  1,813
  1,906
  2,004
  2,107
  2,215
  2,328
Funds from operations, $m
  831
  883
  938
  994
  1,053
  1,115
  1,178
  1,245
  1,314
  1,386
  1,462
  1,540
  1,622
  1,708
  1,797
  1,891
  1,989
  2,091
  2,198
  2,311
  2,428
  2,551
  2,680
  2,815
  2,956
  3,105
  3,260
  3,423
  3,594
  3,773
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  840
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,065
  1,127
  1,191
  1,258
  1,328
  1,401
  1,476
  1,556
  1,638
  1,725
  1,815
  1,910
  2,008
  2,112
  2,220
  2,333
  2,451
  2,575
  2,705
  2,841
  2,984
  3,134
  3,291
  3,455
  3,628
  3,809
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -437
  -469
  -502
  -537
  -573
  -610
  -649
  -689
  -731
  -775
  -821
  -868
  -918
  -970
  -1,024
  -1,081
  -1,140
  -1,202
  -1,266
  -1,334
  -1,405
  -1,479
  -1,557
  -1,638
  -1,723
  -1,813
  -1,906
  -2,004
  -2,107
  -2,215
New CAPEX, $m
  -956
  -995
  -1,034
  -1,075
  -1,118
  -1,164
  -1,211
  -1,261
  -1,314
  -1,370
  -1,428
  -1,490
  -1,556
  -1,625
  -1,698
  -1,774
  -1,855
  -1,941
  -2,030
  -2,125
  -2,225
  -2,330
  -2,441
  -2,557
  -2,680
  -2,809
  -2,944
  -3,087
  -3,237
  -3,395
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,393
  -1,464
  -1,536
  -1,612
  -1,691
  -1,774
  -1,860
  -1,950
  -2,045
  -2,145
  -2,249
  -2,358
  -2,474
  -2,595
  -2,722
  -2,855
  -2,995
  -3,143
  -3,296
  -3,459
  -3,630
  -3,809
  -3,998
  -4,195
  -4,403
  -4,622
  -4,850
  -5,091
  -5,344
  -5,610
Free cash flow, $m
  -553
  -571
  -588
  -607
  -626
  -647
  -669
  -692
  -717
  -744
  -773
  -803
  -835
  -870
  -906
  -945
  -987
  -1,031
  -1,077
  -1,126
  -1,179
  -1,234
  -1,292
  -1,354
  -1,419
  -1,487
  -1,560
  -1,636
  -1,716
  -1,801
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  479
  509
  529
  550
  572
  595
  619
  645
  671
  700
  730
  762
  795
  830
  868
  907
  948
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,137
  1,191
  1,247
  1,307
  1,369
  1,435
  1,505
  1,577
  1,654
  1,735
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  235
  246
  250
  255
  261
  267
  273
  280
  288
  297
  306
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  570
  598
  628
  659
  692
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  714
  755
  779
  805
  833
  862
  892
  925
  959
  997
  1,036
  1,078
  1,122
  1,169
  1,220
  1,273
  1,329
  1,389
  1,452
  1,518
  1,589
  1,664
  1,742
  1,825
  1,912
  2,005
  2,103
  2,205
  2,313
  2,427
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  161
  184
  191
  198
  206
  215
  223
  233
  242
  253
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410
  430
  450
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -597
  -627
  -651
  -677
  -704
  -733
  -763
  -794
  -827
  -862
  -899
  -938
  -980
  -1,023
  -1,069
  -1,117
  -1,168
  -1,222
  -1,279
  -1,338
  -1,401
  -1,467
  -1,537
  -1,610
  -1,687
  -1,768
  -1,854
  -1,944
  -2,038
  -2,137
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -407
  -443
  -461
  -479
  -498
  -518
  -539
  -562
  -585
  -610
  -636
  -664
  -693
  -723
  -756
  -790
  -826
  -864
  -904
  -946
  -991
  -1,037
  -1,087
  -1,138
  -1,193
  -1,250
  -1,311
  -1,374
  -1,441
  -1,511
Discount rate, %
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -383
  -391
  -379
  -364
  -348
  -330
  -311
  -291
  -269
  -247
  -224
  -202
  -179
  -158
  -137
  -117
  -99
  -82
  -67
  -54
  -42
  -33
  -25
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -7
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  98.0
  97.1
  96.2
  95.3
  94.5
  93.8
  93.1
  92.4
  91.7
  91.0
  90.4
  89.8
  89.2
  88.6
  88.0
  87.5
  86.9
  86.4
  85.8
  85.3
  84.8
  84.3
  83.8
  83.3
  82.8
  82.3
  81.8
  81.3
  80.8

Pembina Pipeline Corporation is an energy transportation and service provider. The Company operates through four segments. The Conventional Pipelines segment consists of the tariff-based operations of pipelines and related facilities to deliver crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids (NGL) in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and North Dakota, United States. The Oil Sands & Heavy Oil segment consists of the Syncrude, Horizon, Nipisi and Mitsue Pipelines, and the Cheecham Lateral. These pipelines and related facilities deliver synthetic crude oil produced from oil sands under long-term cost-of-service arrangements. The Gas Services segment consists of natural gas gathering and processing facilities. The Midstream segment consists of the Company's interests in extraction and fractionation facilities, terminalling and storage hub services under a mixture of short, medium and long-term contractual arrangements.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PPL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.7
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -27
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50%
Total Debt to Equity 50%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 26%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 75.3%

PPL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PPL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4265 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pembina Pipeline Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pembina Pipeline Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PPL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for PPL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pembina Pipeline Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pembina Pipeline Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PPL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PPL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Pembina Pipeline Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pembina Pipeline Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PPL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PPL are equal to 307.6%.

Life of production assets of 44.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pembina Pipeline Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PPL is equal to -3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8296 million for Pembina Pipeline Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 502.966 million for Pembina Pipeline Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pembina Pipeline Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.8 billion.

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