Intrinsic value of Pason Systems Inc. - PSI

Previous Close

$20.69

  Intrinsic Value

$1.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$20.69

 
Intrinsic value

$1.10

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  256
  396
  592
  858
  1,211
  1,665
  2,234
  2,934
  3,775
  4,768
  5,921
  7,239
  8,726
  10,382
  12,208
  14,200
  16,358
  18,676
  21,151
  23,780
  26,560
  29,486
  32,557
  35,772
  39,130
  42,632
  46,278
  50,072
  54,017
  58,117
Variable operating expenses, $m
  182
  280
  419
  607
  855
  1,176
  1,578
  2,071
  2,665
  3,365
  4,178
  5,107
  6,156
  7,325
  8,612
  10,018
  11,540
  13,176
  14,922
  16,777
  18,738
  20,802
  22,969
  25,237
  27,606
  30,077
  32,649
  35,326
  38,109
  41,002
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  171
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  199
  203
  207
Total operating expenses, $m
  292
  393
  534
  725
  975
  1,299
  1,704
  2,200
  2,796
  3,499
  4,315
  5,247
  6,299
  7,471
  8,762
  10,171
  11,696
  13,336
  15,085
  16,944
  18,909
  20,976
  23,147
  25,419
  27,792
  30,267
  32,843
  35,525
  38,312
  41,209
Operating income, $m
  -36
  2
  58
  134
  235
  366
  531
  734
  979
  1,269
  1,607
  1,992
  2,426
  2,911
  3,445
  4,029
  4,661
  5,340
  6,066
  6,836
  7,651
  8,509
  9,410
  10,353
  11,338
  12,365
  13,435
  14,548
  15,705
  16,908
EBITDA, $m
  31
  106
  212
  357
  549
  797
  1,109
  1,493
  1,955
  2,501
  3,136
  3,861
  4,680
  5,592
  6,597
  7,696
  8,885
  10,162
  11,527
  12,977
  14,509
  16,123
  17,816
  19,589
  21,441
  23,372
  25,384
  27,476
  29,652
  31,914
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  29
  38
  48
  60
  74
  90
  107
  126
  147
  170
  194
  220
  248
  277
  308
  340
  373
  409
  445
  484
  523
  565
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  1
  55
  129
  228
  355
  515
  713
  950
  1,231
  1,558
  1,931
  2,352
  2,821
  3,338
  3,903
  4,514
  5,170
  5,872
  6,616
  7,404
  8,232
  9,102
  10,013
  10,964
  11,956
  12,989
  14,064
  15,182
  16,343
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  15
  35
  61
  96
  139
  192
  257
  332
  421
  521
  635
  762
  901
  1,054
  1,219
  1,396
  1,585
  1,786
  1,999
  2,223
  2,458
  2,704
  2,960
  3,228
  3,507
  3,797
  4,099
  4,413
Net income, $m
  -36
  1
  40
  94
  166
  259
  376
  520
  694
  899
  1,138
  1,410
  1,717
  2,060
  2,437
  2,849
  3,295
  3,774
  4,286
  4,830
  5,405
  6,010
  6,645
  7,310
  8,004
  8,728
  9,482
  10,267
  11,083
  11,931

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  462
  714
  1,068
  1,549
  2,186
  3,005
  4,033
  5,296
  6,815
  8,607
  10,688
  13,068
  15,751
  18,740
  22,035
  25,632
  29,526
  33,711
  38,179
  42,925
  47,942
  53,224
  58,768
  64,571
  70,632
  76,953
  83,535
  90,383
  97,504
  104,905
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  462
  714
  1,068
  1,549
  2,186
  3,005
  4,033
  5,296
  6,815
  8,607
  10,688
  13,068
  15,751
  18,740
  22,035
  25,632
  29,526
  33,711
  38,179
  42,925
  47,942
  53,224
  58,768
  64,571
  70,632
  76,953
  83,535
  90,383
  97,504
  104,905
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.554
  0.555
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
Average production assets, $m
  330
  511
  764
  1,108
  1,563
  2,149
  2,885
  3,788
  4,874
  6,156
  7,644
  9,346
  11,265
  13,403
  15,760
  18,333
  21,118
  24,111
  27,307
  30,701
  34,289
  38,066
  42,032
  46,182
  50,517
  55,038
  59,745
  64,643
  69,736
  75,030
Working capital, $m
  85
  131
  196
  284
  401
  551
  740
  971
  1,250
  1,578
  1,960
  2,396
  2,888
  3,437
  4,041
  4,700
  5,414
  6,182
  7,001
  7,871
  8,791
  9,760
  10,776
  11,841
  12,952
  14,111
  15,318
  16,574
  17,880
  19,237
Total debt, $m
  29
  71
  129
  209
  315
  451
  622
  831
  1,083
  1,381
  1,726
  2,121
  2,567
  3,063
  3,610
  4,207
  4,853
  5,548
  6,290
  7,078
  7,910
  8,787
  9,707
  10,671
  11,677
  12,726
  13,819
  14,956
  16,138
  17,366
Total liabilities, $m
  77
  119
  177
  257
  363
  499
  670
  879
  1,131
  1,429
  1,774
  2,169
  2,615
  3,111
  3,658
  4,255
  4,901
  5,596
  6,338
  7,126
  7,958
  8,835
  9,755
  10,719
  11,725
  12,774
  13,867
  15,004
  16,186
  17,414
Total equity, $m
  385
  595
  890
  1,292
  1,823
  2,506
  3,364
  4,417
  5,683
  7,179
  8,914
  10,898
  13,136
  15,629
  18,378
  21,377
  24,625
  28,115
  31,842
  35,800
  39,983
  44,389
  49,012
  53,852
  58,907
  64,179
  69,668
  75,380
  81,318
  87,491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  462
  714
  1,067
  1,549
  2,186
  3,005
  4,034
  5,296
  6,814
  8,608
  10,688
  13,067
  15,751
  18,740
  22,036
  25,632
  29,526
  33,711
  38,180
  42,926
  47,941
  53,224
  58,767
  64,571
  70,632
  76,953
  83,535
  90,384
  97,504
  104,905
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -36
  1
  40
  94
  166
  259
  376
  520
  694
  899
  1,138
  1,410
  1,717
  2,060
  2,437
  2,849
  3,295
  3,774
  4,286
  4,830
  5,405
  6,010
  6,645
  7,310
  8,004
  8,728
  9,482
  10,267
  11,083
  11,931
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  103
  154
  223
  314
  431
  578
  759
  976
  1,232
  1,529
  1,869
  2,253
  2,681
  3,152
  3,667
  4,224
  4,822
  5,461
  6,140
  6,858
  7,613
  8,406
  9,236
  10,103
  11,008
  11,949
  12,929
  13,947
  15,006
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  104
  194
  317
  480
  690
  954
  1,279
  1,670
  2,131
  2,666
  3,279
  3,970
  4,740
  5,589
  6,515
  7,519
  8,597
  9,748
  10,970
  12,262
  13,623
  15,051
  16,546
  18,107
  19,736
  21,431
  23,195
  25,030
  26,937
Change in working capital, $m
  32
  46
  65
  88
  117
  150
  189
  232
  278
  329
  382
  436
  492
  548
  604
  660
  714
  767
  819
  870
  920
  969
  1,017
  1,064
  1,111
  1,159
  1,207
  1,256
  1,306
  1,357
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  58
  129
  229
  363
  540
  766
  1,047
  1,391
  1,802
  2,285
  2,843
  3,478
  4,192
  4,985
  5,856
  6,805
  7,829
  8,928
  10,100
  11,342
  12,654
  14,034
  15,482
  16,996
  18,577
  20,224
  21,940
  23,724
  25,579
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -66
  -102
  -153
  -222
  -313
  -430
  -577
  -758
  -975
  -1,231
  -1,529
  -1,869
  -2,253
  -2,681
  -3,152
  -3,667
  -4,224
  -4,822
  -5,461
  -6,140
  -6,858
  -7,613
  -8,406
  -9,236
  -10,103
  -11,008
  -11,949
  -12,929
  -13,947
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -180
  -253
  -344
  -455
  -586
  -736
  -903
  -1,086
  -1,282
  -1,488
  -1,702
  -1,919
  -2,138
  -2,357
  -2,573
  -2,785
  -2,993
  -3,196
  -3,394
  -3,588
  -3,778
  -3,965
  -4,150
  -4,335
  -4,520
  -4,708
  -4,898
  -5,093
  -5,293
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -165
  -246
  -355
  -497
  -677
  -899
  -1,166
  -1,480
  -1,844
  -2,257
  -2,719
  -3,231
  -3,788
  -4,391
  -5,038
  -5,725
  -6,452
  -7,217
  -8,018
  -8,855
  -9,728
  -10,636
  -11,578
  -12,556
  -13,571
  -14,623
  -15,716
  -16,847
  -18,022
  -19,240
Free cash flow, $m
  -166
  -188
  -226
  -268
  -313
  -359
  -400
  -433
  -453
  -455
  -435
  -388
  -310
  -199
  -53
  131
  353
  613
  910
  1,244
  1,614
  2,019
  2,456
  2,925
  3,424
  3,953
  4,509
  5,092
  5,703
  6,339
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  42
  59
  80
  106
  136
  171
  210
  252
  298
  345
  395
  445
  496
  547
  597
  646
  695
  742
  788
  833
  877
  920
  963
  1,006
  1,049
  1,093
  1,137
  1,182
  1,229
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  181
  209
  255
  307
  365
  424
  482
  533
  573
  597
  598
  574
  521
  434
  311
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  210
  251
  314
  387
  471
  560
  653
  743
  825
  895
  943
  969
  966
  930
  858
  748
  646
  695
  742
  788
  833
  877
  920
  963
  1,006
  1,049
  1,093
  1,137
  1,182
  1,229
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  63
  88
  119
  157
  201
  253
  310
  372
  439
  509
  582
  656
  731
  805
  879
  999
  1,307
  1,652
  2,032
  2,447
  2,896
  3,376
  3,888
  4,430
  5,002
  5,602
  6,229
  6,885
  7,567
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -181
  -210
  -295
  -402
  -531
  -683
  -858
  -1,053
  -1,267
  -1,495
  -1,736
  -1,984
  -2,238
  -2,493
  -2,748
  -3,000
  -3,248
  -3,490
  -3,727
  -3,958
  -4,184
  -4,405
  -4,624
  -4,840
  -5,055
  -5,271
  -5,490
  -5,712
  -5,939
  -6,173
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  146
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  9
  -147
  -207
  -283
  -374
  -482
  -605
  -743
  -894
  -1,056
  -1,227
  -1,403
  -1,582
  -1,762
  -1,943
  -2,121
  -2,248
  -2,183
  -2,075
  -1,926
  -1,737
  -1,510
  -1,247
  -951
  -625
  -269
  112
  518
  946
  1,395
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  8
  -135
  -180
  -233
  -290
  -350
  -409
  -465
  -514
  -553
  -583
  -599
  -601
  -592
  -570
  -539
  -489
  -402
  -319
  -245
  -180
  -125
  -82
  -48
  -24
  -8
  2
  8
  10
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  85.9
  76.7
  70.2
  65.2
  61.4
  58.4
  56.1
  54.2
  52.7
  51.5
  50.6
  49.9
  49.3
  49.0
  48.8
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7
  48.7

Pason Systems Inc. is a Canada-based global provider of instrumentation and data management systems for drilling rigs. The Company's geographical segments include Canada, the United States, and International. The International segment includes Latin America, Offshore, the Eastern Hemisphere, and the Middle East. The Company's solutions include data acquisition, wellsite reporting, remote communications, and Web-based information management, and enable collaboration between the rig and the office. The Company's products include Pason Service, Automatic Driller, Choke Control, Electronic Drilling Recorder (EDR), Enhanced Pit Volume Totalizer (ePVT), Gas Analyzer, Hazardous Gas Alarm System and Pit Volume Totalizer (PVT), among others. The Company's rig site products include Rig Communications, Rig Display and SideKick, among others. The Company's data analysis includes DataHub, Directional System, Drilling Guidance System (DGS), Live Rig View (LRV) and LRV Mobile (LRV), among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pason Systems Inc. (PSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -42.7
Price to Sales 10.9
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 87.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 175.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -43.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -77.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -29.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital -9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity -9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.1%
EBITDA Margin -1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Operating Margin -36.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -36.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Net Profit Margin -25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 29.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio -139%

PSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pason Systems Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pason Systems Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pason Systems Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pason Systems Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $108 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Pason Systems Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pason Systems Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PSI are equal to 129.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pason Systems Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PSI is equal to 33.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $387 million for Pason Systems Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.212 million for Pason Systems Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pason Systems Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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