Intrinsic value of Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting - QBR-B

Previous Close

$27.87

  Intrinsic Value

$13.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-50%

Previous close

$27.87

 
Intrinsic value

$13.82

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QBR-B stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  4,166
  4,325
  4,496
  4,678
  4,872
  5,078
  5,297
  5,529
  5,775
  6,034
  6,309
  6,598
  6,904
  7,226
  7,566
  7,924
  8,301
  8,698
  9,116
  9,556
  10,019
  10,506
  11,017
  11,556
  12,121
  12,716
  13,341
  13,998
  14,689
  15,414
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,489
  3,612
  3,744
  3,885
  4,035
  4,194
  4,363
  4,542
  4,731
  4,932
  4,871
  5,095
  5,331
  5,580
  5,842
  6,119
  6,410
  6,717
  7,039
  7,379
  7,736
  8,112
  8,507
  8,923
  9,360
  9,819
  10,302
  10,809
  11,342
  11,902
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,489
  3,612
  3,744
  3,885
  4,035
  4,194
  4,363
  4,542
  4,731
  4,932
  4,871
  5,095
  5,331
  5,580
  5,842
  6,119
  6,410
  6,717
  7,039
  7,379
  7,736
  8,112
  8,507
  8,923
  9,360
  9,819
  10,302
  10,809
  11,342
  11,902
Operating income, $m
  677
  713
  752
  793
  838
  885
  934
  987
  1,043
  1,102
  1,437
  1,503
  1,573
  1,646
  1,724
  1,805
  1,891
  1,982
  2,077
  2,177
  2,283
  2,394
  2,510
  2,633
  2,762
  2,897
  3,040
  3,189
  3,347
  3,512
EBITDA, $m
  1,378
  1,431
  1,487
  1,548
  1,612
  1,680
  1,752
  1,829
  1,910
  1,996
  2,087
  2,183
  2,284
  2,391
  2,503
  2,621
  2,746
  2,878
  3,016
  3,161
  3,314
  3,475
  3,645
  3,823
  4,010
  4,207
  4,414
  4,631
  4,859
  5,099
Interest expense (income), $m
  309
  302
  294
  310
  327
  346
  366
  387
  409
  432
  457
  483
  511
  541
  572
  604
  639
  675
  713
  754
  796
  840
  887
  937
  989
  1,043
  1,101
  1,161
  1,224
  1,291
  1,361
Earnings before tax, $m
  374
  419
  442
  466
  492
  519
  548
  579
  611
  645
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,075
  1,120
  1,167
  1,216
  1,269
  1,324
  1,381
  1,442
  1,506
  1,573
  1,644
  1,719
  1,797
  1,879
  1,965
  2,056
  2,151
Tax expense, $m
  101
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  343
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
Net income, $m
  273
  306
  322
  340
  359
  379
  400
  422
  446
  471
  696
  724
  754
  785
  817
  852
  888
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,053
  1,100
  1,149
  1,200
  1,255
  1,312
  1,372
  1,435
  1,501
  1,570

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,576
  9,943
  10,335
  10,754
  11,200
  11,674
  12,177
  12,710
  13,275
  13,872
  14,502
  15,168
  15,871
  16,612
  17,393
  18,217
  19,083
  19,996
  20,957
  21,968
  23,032
  24,151
  25,327
  26,564
  27,865
  29,232
  30,669
  32,180
  33,767
  35,434
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,576
  9,943
  10,335
  10,754
  11,200
  11,674
  12,177
  12,710
  13,275
  13,872
  14,502
  15,168
  15,871
  16,612
  17,393
  18,217
  19,083
  19,996
  20,957
  21,968
  23,032
  24,151
  25,327
  26,564
  27,865
  29,232
  30,669
  32,180
  33,767
  35,434
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
Average production assets, $m
  4,890
  5,078
  5,278
  5,492
  5,720
  5,962
  6,219
  6,491
  6,779
  7,084
  7,406
  7,746
  8,105
  8,484
  8,883
  9,303
  9,746
  10,212
  10,703
  11,219
  11,762
  12,333
  12,934
  13,566
  14,230
  14,929
  15,663
  16,434
  17,244
  18,096
Working capital, $m
  -396
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -463
  -482
  -503
  -525
  -549
  -573
  -599
  -627
  -656
  -686
  -719
  -753
  -789
  -826
  -866
  -908
  -952
  -998
  -1,047
  -1,098
  -1,152
  -1,208
  -1,267
  -1,330
  -1,395
  -1,464
Total debt, $m
  6,000
  6,330
  6,683
  7,060
  7,461
  7,888
  8,341
  8,820
  9,328
  9,866
  10,433
  11,033
  11,665
  12,332
  13,035
  13,776
  14,556
  15,378
  16,242
  17,152
  18,110
  19,117
  20,175
  21,289
  22,460
  23,690
  24,983
  26,343
  27,771
  29,272
Total liabilities, $m
  8,619
  8,949
  9,302
  9,679
  10,080
  10,507
  10,960
  11,439
  11,947
  12,485
  13,052
  13,652
  14,284
  14,951
  15,654
  16,395
  17,175
  17,997
  18,861
  19,771
  20,729
  21,736
  22,794
  23,908
  25,079
  26,309
  27,602
  28,962
  30,390
  31,891
Total equity, $m
  958
  994
  1,034
  1,075
  1,120
  1,167
  1,218
  1,271
  1,327
  1,387
  1,450
  1,517
  1,587
  1,661
  1,739
  1,822
  1,908
  2,000
  2,096
  2,197
  2,303
  2,415
  2,533
  2,656
  2,787
  2,923
  3,067
  3,218
  3,377
  3,543
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,577
  9,943
  10,336
  10,754
  11,200
  11,674
  12,178
  12,710
  13,274
  13,872
  14,502
  15,169
  15,871
  16,612
  17,393
  18,217
  19,083
  19,997
  20,957
  21,968
  23,032
  24,151
  25,327
  26,564
  27,866
  29,232
  30,669
  32,180
  33,767
  35,434
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.270
  6.370
  6.470
  6.560
  6.660
  6.760
  6.850
  6.940
  7.030
  7.110
  7.190
  7.270
  7.350
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.920
  7.970
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.220
  8.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  273
  306
  322
  340
  359
  379
  400
  422
  446
  471
  696
  724
  754
  785
  817
  852
  888
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,053
  1,100
  1,149
  1,200
  1,255
  1,312
  1,372
  1,435
  1,501
  1,570
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  701
  718
  735
  754
  774
  795
  818
  842
  867
  894
  650
  680
  711
  744
  779
  816
  855
  896
  939
  984
  1,032
  1,082
  1,135
  1,190
  1,248
  1,310
  1,374
  1,442
  1,513
  1,587
Funds from operations, $m
  975
  1,024
  1,058
  1,094
  1,133
  1,174
  1,218
  1,264
  1,313
  1,365
  1,346
  1,404
  1,465
  1,529
  1,596
  1,668
  1,743
  1,822
  1,905
  1,993
  2,085
  2,181
  2,283
  2,390
  2,503
  2,621
  2,745
  2,876
  3,013
  3,158
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
Cash from operations, $m
  989
  1,039
  1,074
  1,112
  1,152
  1,194
  1,239
  1,286
  1,336
  1,390
  1,372
  1,431
  1,494
  1,559
  1,629
  1,702
  1,779
  1,860
  1,945
  2,034
  2,129
  2,228
  2,332
  2,441
  2,557
  2,678
  2,805
  2,939
  3,079
  3,227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -414
  -429
  -445
  -463
  -482
  -502
  -523
  -546
  -569
  -595
  -621
  -650
  -680
  -711
  -744
  -779
  -816
  -855
  -896
  -939
  -984
  -1,032
  -1,082
  -1,135
  -1,190
  -1,248
  -1,310
  -1,374
  -1,442
  -1,513
New CAPEX, $m
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -443
  -466
  -491
  -516
  -543
  -571
  -601
  -632
  -664
  -698
  -734
  -771
  -811
  -852
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -588
  -616
  -645
  -677
  -710
  -744
  -780
  -818
  -857
  -900
  -943
  -990
  -1,039
  -1,089
  -1,143
  -1,199
  -1,259
  -1,321
  -1,387
  -1,455
  -1,527
  -1,603
  -1,683
  -1,767
  -1,854
  -1,946
  -2,044
  -2,145
  -2,253
  -2,365
Free cash flow, $m
  401
  423
  428
  435
  442
  450
  459
  468
  479
  490
  429
  441
  455
  470
  486
  502
  520
  539
  558
  579
  601
  624
  649
  675
  702
  731
  761
  793
  827
  862
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -166
  330
  353
  377
  401
  427
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  599
  632
  667
  703
  741
  780
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
  1,293
  1,359
  1,428
  1,501
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  229
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  330
  353
  377
  401
  427
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  599
  632
  667
  703
  741
  780
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
  1,293
  1,359
  1,428
  1,501
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  464
  753
  782
  812
  843
  877
  912
  948
  987
  1,027
  996
  1,041
  1,088
  1,137
  1,189
  1,243
  1,300
  1,360
  1,423
  1,489
  1,559
  1,631
  1,708
  1,788
  1,873
  1,962
  2,055
  2,153
  2,255
  2,363
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -503
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -39
  716
  742
  770
  799
  829
  861
  895
  930
  968
  933
  974
  1,017
  1,063
  1,111
  1,161
  1,213
  1,269
  1,327
  1,388
  1,452
  1,520
  1,590
  1,665
  1,743
  1,825
  1,911
  2,002
  2,097
  2,196
Discount rate, %
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -35
  555
  498
  441
  386
  332
  282
  236
  194
  156
  114
  89
  68
  50
  37
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2
  95.2

Quebecor Inc. is a telecommunications and media company. The Company's segments include Telecommunications, Media, and Sports and Entertainment. The Telecommunications segment offers television distribution, Internet access, business solutions (including data centers), cable and mobile telephony and over-the-top video services in Canada. The operations of the Media segment in Quebec include the operation of an over-the-air television network and specialty television services; the printing, publishing and distribution of daily newspapers; the operation of Internet portals and specialized Websites; the distribution and production of music, and the operation of an out-of-home advertising business. The activities of the Sports and Entertainment segment in Quebec encompass the operation and management of the Videotron Centre in Quebec City, show production, sporting and cultural events management, and the operation of over two Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) teams.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting (QBR-B)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.4
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 7.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1344.4%
Total Debt to Equity 1360%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 51.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.7%
EBITDA Margin 33.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Operating Margin 19%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 32.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
Payout Ratio 10.8%

QBR-B stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QBR-B stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4017 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QBR-B stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for QBR-B is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QBR-B stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QBR-B stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QBR-B stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QBR-B are equal to 117.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QBR-B is equal to -9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $455 million for Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 239.662 million for Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quebecor Inc. Class B Subordinate Voting at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.

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