Intrinsic value of Siyata Mobile Inc - SIM

Previous Close

$0.60

  Intrinsic Value

$17.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$0.60

 
Intrinsic value

$17.97

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  12
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  125
  168
  220
  283
  358
  444
  543
  654
  779
  916
  1,065
  1,227
  1,401
  1,586
  1,784
  1,992
  2,211
  2,442
  2,683
  2,935
  3,197
  3,471
  3,755
  4,051
  4,359
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  30
  41
  53
  69
  87
  107
  131
  158
  188
  221
  257
  296
  339
  383
  431
  481
  534
  590
  648
  709
  773
  839
  908
  979
  1,053
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  14
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  43
  54
  66
  83
  101
  121
  146
  173
  204
  237
  273
  313
  356
  401
  449
  499
  553
  609
  668
  729
  794
  860
  930
  1,002
  1,076
Operating income, $m
  -1
  3
  11
  22
  37
  56
  82
  114
  153
  201
  257
  322
  397
  481
  575
  678
  791
  914
  1,045
  1,185
  1,334
  1,492
  1,658
  1,832
  2,015
  2,205
  2,404
  2,611
  2,826
  3,050
  3,282
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  4
  12
  23
  38
  59
  85
  118
  159
  208
  266
  333
  411
  497
  594
  701
  818
  944
  1,080
  1,225
  1,379
  1,542
  1,713
  1,893
  2,082
  2,279
  2,484
  2,697
  2,920
  3,151
  3,391
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  -2
  3
  11
  22
  36
  56
  81
  113
  152
  199
  255
  319
  393
  476
  569
  672
  783
  904
  1,034
  1,173
  1,321
  1,477
  1,641
  1,813
  1,993
  2,182
  2,378
  2,583
  2,796
  3,017
  3,247
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  3
  6
  10
  15
  22
  30
  41
  54
  69
  86
  106
  129
  154
  181
  212
  244
  279
  317
  357
  399
  443
  490
  538
  589
  642
  697
  755
  815
  877
Net income, $m
  -2
  2
  8
  16
  26
  41
  59
  82
  111
  145
  186
  233
  287
  348
  416
  490
  572
  660
  755
  856
  964
  1,078
  1,198
  1,324
  1,455
  1,593
  1,736
  1,885
  2,041
  2,202
  2,370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,124
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,181
  3,442
  3,713
  3,995
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,124
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,181
  3,442
  3,713
  3,995
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.091
  1.056
  1.111
  1.073
  1.085
  1.096
  1.096
  1.091
  1.089
  1.088
  1.091
  1.091
  1.090
  1.090
  1.091
  1.092
  1.091
  1.092
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
Average production assets, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  610
  671
  734
  799
  868
  939
  1,013
  1,090
Working capital, $m
  4
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  259
  305
  355
  409
  466
  528
  594
  663
  736
  813
  893
  977
  1,065
  1,156
  1,251
  1,349
  1,451
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  8
  13
  20
  28
  39
  52
  68
  86
  108
  133
  161
  192
  226
  264
  304
  347
  394
  443
  495
  550
  608
  668
  731
  797
  866
  937
  1,011
  1,088
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  267
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  611
  671
  734
  800
  869
  940
  1,014
  1,091
Total equity, $m
  8
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  933
  1,057
  1,188
  1,327
  1,474
  1,627
  1,788
  1,956
  2,131
  2,313
  2,502
  2,700
  2,905
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  84
  114
  154
  202
  260
  327
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  977
  1,125
  1,283
  1,454
  1,634
  1,825
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,182
  3,442
  3,714
  3,996
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.140
  0.220
  0.270
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727
  0.727

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  2
  8
  16
  26
  41
  59
  82
  111
  145
  186
  233
  287
  348
  416
  490
  572
  660
  755
  856
  964
  1,078
  1,198
  1,324
  1,455
  1,593
  1,736
  1,885
  2,041
  2,202
  2,370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  3
  9
  17
  28
  43
  62
  87
  117
  152
  195
  244
  301
  364
  435
  513
  599
  691
  790
  896
  1,009
  1,128
  1,253
  1,385
  1,522
  1,666
  1,816
  1,972
  2,135
  2,304
  2,479
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  102
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  1
  5
  12
  22
  34
  51
  72
  99
  131
  170
  215
  268
  327
  394
  468
  549
  637
  732
  834
  943
  1,058
  1,180
  1,308
  1,442
  1,582
  1,729
  1,881
  2,040
  2,205
  2,377
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -178
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -2
  2
  8
  15
  26
  40
  59
  82
  110
  144
  185
  232
  286
  346
  414
  488
  570
  658
  753
  854
  962
  1,075
  1,195
  1,321
  1,452
  1,590
  1,733
  1,882
  2,037
  2,199
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  4
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  3
  5
  11
  20
  33
  49
  69
  95
  126
  163
  206
  257
  314
  377
  448
  526
  610
  702
  799
  903
  1,014
  1,130
  1,253
  1,381
  1,515
  1,655
  1,801
  1,953
  2,111
  2,276
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -197
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -2
  2
  7
  15
  26
  41
  60
  84
  113
  149
  191
  239
  295
  357
  426
  503
  586
  676
  772
  875
  984
  1,099
  1,220
  1,347
  1,480
  1,619
  1,764
  1,914
  2,071
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -2
  1
  6
  12
  19
  28
  37
  48
  59
  71
  81
  91
  99
  105
  108
  109
  108
  104
  98
  90
  82
  72
  62
  52
  43
  35
  27
  21
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7
  95.7

Siyata Mobile Inc, formerly Teslin River Resources Corp, is a Canada-based company engaged in the phones and smartphones sector. Its offering includes: Truckfone, a communications device for commercial vehicles, trucks and fleets, allowing drivers to talk and drive; Voyager, a Third Generation (3G) smartphone for personal and commercial vehicles, vans, trucks and fleets, and Bagfone, a mobile communications companion for remote locations where cellular signal strength is weak. Truckfone is a vehicle-dedicated mobile phone that combines a speaker, a directional microphone and an external antenna for cellular coverage. Voyager integrates hands-free voice dialing, Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation, GPS tracking, a physical keypad, a color touchscreen, in-vehicle audio system connectivity and supports a number of applications. Bagfone is housed in a rugged, waterproof container so that it can take a beating and still function properly to provide a clear cellular connection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Siyata Mobile Inc (SIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.8
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -20.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -20%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -20%
Return On Total Capital -28.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.5%
Return On Equity -28.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
EBITDA Margin -16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Operating Margin -16.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Net Profit Margin -16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Siyata Mobile Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Siyata Mobile Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Siyata Mobile Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Siyata Mobile Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Siyata Mobile Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Siyata Mobile Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIM are equal to 25%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Siyata Mobile Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIM is equal to 33.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8 million for Siyata Mobile Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.379 million for Siyata Mobile Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Siyata Mobile Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
Financial statements of SIM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.