Intrinsic value of Tricon Capital Group Inc. - TCN

Previous Close

$10.81

  Intrinsic Value

$11.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+2%

Previous close

$10.81

 
Intrinsic value

$11.06

 
Up/down potential

+2%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.42
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  151
  242
  373
  558
  810
  1,143
  1,571
  2,109
  2,769
  3,563
  4,500
  5,588
  6,832
  8,235
  9,798
  11,521
  13,402
  15,438
  17,625
  19,962
  22,443
  25,066
  27,827
  30,726
  33,760
  36,929
  40,234
  43,675
  47,256
  50,979
  54,848
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  126
  195
  292
  424
  598
  822
  1,103
  1,448
  1,863
  2,354
  2,923
  3,573
  4,307
  5,124
  6,025
  7,009
  8,074
  9,218
  10,440
  11,738
  13,109
  14,554
  16,070
  17,657
  19,314
  21,042
  22,842
  24,715
  26,662
  28,686
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  54
  126
  195
  292
  424
  598
  822
  1,103
  1,448
  1,863
  2,354
  2,923
  3,573
  4,307
  5,124
  6,025
  7,009
  8,074
  9,218
  10,440
  11,738
  13,109
  14,554
  16,070
  17,657
  19,314
  21,042
  22,842
  24,715
  26,662
  28,686
Operating income, $m
  96
  115
  178
  266
  386
  545
  749
  1,006
  1,321
  1,700
  2,147
  2,666
  3,259
  3,928
  4,674
  5,495
  6,393
  7,364
  8,407
  9,522
  10,705
  11,956
  13,274
  14,656
  16,104
  17,615
  19,192
  20,833
  22,541
  24,317
  26,163
EBITDA, $m
  104
  127
  197
  294
  427
  602
  827
  1,110
  1,458
  1,876
  2,370
  2,943
  3,598
  4,337
  5,160
  6,067
  7,057
  8,129
  9,282
  10,512
  11,818
  13,200
  14,654
  16,180
  17,778
  19,447
  21,187
  22,999
  24,885
  26,845
  28,883
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  16
  29
  48
  76
  113
  162
  225
  305
  402
  519
  658
  818
  1,002
  1,209
  1,440
  1,694
  1,972
  2,272
  2,595
  2,940
  3,306
  3,693
  4,101
  4,529
  4,977
  5,445
  5,933
  6,441
  6,969
  7,519
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  100
  149
  218
  311
  432
  587
  781
  1,016
  1,298
  1,627
  2,008
  2,441
  2,926
  3,465
  4,056
  4,699
  5,392
  6,135
  6,927
  7,765
  8,650
  9,580
  10,555
  11,574
  12,638
  13,747
  14,900
  16,100
  17,348
  18,644
Tax expense, $m
  16
  27
  40
  59
  84
  117
  159
  211
  274
  350
  439
  542
  659
  790
  936
  1,095
  1,269
  1,456
  1,656
  1,870
  2,097
  2,336
  2,587
  2,850
  3,125
  3,412
  3,712
  4,023
  4,347
  4,684
  5,034
Net income, $m
  80
  73
  109
  159
  227
  316
  429
  570
  742
  947
  1,188
  1,466
  1,782
  2,136
  2,529
  2,961
  3,430
  3,936
  4,479
  5,056
  5,669
  6,315
  6,994
  7,705
  8,449
  9,226
  10,035
  10,877
  11,753
  12,664
  13,610

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,314
  2,065
  3,190
  4,771
  6,923
  9,767
  13,427
  18,023
  23,666
  30,452
  38,464
  47,763
  58,395
  70,386
  83,745
  98,469
  114,544
  131,945
  150,644
  170,613
  191,819
  214,237
  237,841
  262,615
  288,548
  315,634
  343,878
  373,292
  403,896
  435,716
  468,790
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,290
  2,065
  3,190
  4,771
  6,923
  9,767
  13,427
  18,023
  23,666
  30,452
  38,464
  47,763
  58,395
  70,386
  83,745
  98,469
  114,544
  131,945
  150,644
  170,613
  191,819
  214,237
  237,841
  262,615
  288,548
  315,634
  343,878
  373,292
  403,896
  435,716
  468,790
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  38
  60
  93
  138
  201
  283
  390
  523
  687
  884
  1,116
  1,386
  1,694
  2,042
  2,430
  2,857
  3,324
  3,829
  4,371
  4,950
  5,566
  6,216
  6,901
  7,620
  8,372
  9,158
  9,978
  10,831
  11,719
  12,643
  13,602
Working capital, $m
  28
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  41
  55
  72
  93
  117
  145
  178
  214
  255
  300
  348
  401
  458
  519
  584
  652
  724
  799
  878
  960
  1,046
  1,136
  1,229
  1,325
  1,426
Total debt, $m
  228
  424
  710
  1,112
  1,658
  2,381
  3,311
  4,478
  5,911
  7,635
  9,670
  12,032
  14,732
  17,778
  21,171
  24,911
  28,994
  33,414
  38,164
  43,236
  48,622
  54,316
  60,312
  66,604
  73,191
  80,071
  87,245
  94,716
  102,490
  110,572
  118,973
Total liabilities, $m
  328
  524
  810
  1,212
  1,758
  2,481
  3,411
  4,578
  6,011
  7,735
  9,770
  12,132
  14,832
  17,878
  21,271
  25,011
  29,094
  33,514
  38,264
  43,336
  48,722
  54,416
  60,412
  66,704
  73,291
  80,171
  87,345
  94,816
  102,590
  110,672
  119,073
Total equity, $m
  986
  1,540
  2,380
  3,559
  5,164
  7,286
  10,017
  13,445
  17,655
  22,717
  28,694
  35,631
  43,563
  52,508
  62,474
  73,458
  85,450
  98,431
  112,381
  127,277
  143,097
  159,820
  177,430
  195,911
  215,257
  235,463
  256,533
  278,476
  301,306
  325,044
  349,717
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,314
  2,064
  3,190
  4,771
  6,922
  9,767
  13,428
  18,023
  23,666
  30,452
  38,464
  47,763
  58,395
  70,386
  83,745
  98,469
  114,544
  131,945
  150,645
  170,613
  191,819
  214,236
  237,842
  262,615
  288,548
  315,634
  343,878
  373,292
  403,896
  435,716
  468,790
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.231
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746
  0.746

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  80
  73
  109
  159
  227
  316
  429
  570
  742
  947
  1,188
  1,466
  1,782
  2,136
  2,529
  2,961
  3,430
  3,936
  4,479
  5,056
  5,669
  6,315
  6,994
  7,705
  8,449
  9,226
  10,035
  10,877
  11,753
  12,664
  13,610
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  12
  19
  28
  40
  57
  78
  105
  137
  177
  223
  277
  339
  408
  486
  571
  665
  766
  874
  990
  1,113
  1,243
  1,380
  1,524
  1,674
  1,832
  1,996
  2,166
  2,344
  2,529
  2,720
Funds from operations, $m
  200
  85
  127
  187
  267
  372
  507
  675
  879
  1,124
  1,411
  1,743
  2,121
  2,545
  3,015
  3,532
  4,095
  4,702
  5,353
  6,047
  6,782
  7,558
  8,374
  9,229
  10,124
  11,058
  12,031
  13,044
  14,097
  15,192
  16,330
Change in working capital, $m
  283
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
Cash from operations, $m
  -83
  82
  124
  182
  260
  364
  496
  661
  862
  1,103
  1,387
  1,715
  2,088
  2,508
  2,975
  3,487
  4,046
  4,649
  5,296
  5,986
  6,717
  7,490
  8,302
  9,154
  10,045
  10,975
  11,945
  12,954
  14,004
  15,096
  16,230
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -12
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -57
  -78
  -105
  -137
  -177
  -223
  -277
  -339
  -408
  -486
  -571
  -665
  -766
  -874
  -990
  -1,113
  -1,243
  -1,380
  -1,524
  -1,674
  -1,832
  -1,996
  -2,166
  -2,344
  -2,529
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -22
  -33
  -46
  -62
  -83
  -106
  -133
  -164
  -197
  -232
  -270
  -308
  -348
  -388
  -427
  -466
  -505
  -543
  -579
  -615
  -650
  -685
  -719
  -752
  -786
  -820
  -853
  -888
  -923
  -960
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -30
  -45
  -65
  -90
  -123
  -163
  -211
  -269
  -334
  -409
  -493
  -585
  -687
  -796
  -913
  -1,037
  -1,170
  -1,309
  -1,453
  -1,605
  -1,763
  -1,928
  -2,099
  -2,276
  -2,460
  -2,652
  -2,849
  -3,054
  -3,267
  -3,489
Free cash flow, $m
  -84
  53
  79
  118
  170
  241
  333
  449
  594
  769
  978
  1,222
  1,503
  1,821
  2,179
  2,574
  3,008
  3,479
  3,988
  4,532
  5,112
  5,726
  6,374
  7,055
  7,769
  8,515
  9,294
  10,105
  10,950
  11,828
  12,742
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  127
  196
  286
  402
  546
  722
  930
  1,167
  1,433
  1,724
  2,035
  2,362
  2,701
  3,046
  3,393
  3,740
  4,083
  4,420
  4,750
  5,072
  5,386
  5,694
  5,996
  6,293
  6,587
  6,880
  7,174
  7,471
  7,773
  8,082
  8,401
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  506
  731
  1,020
  1,378
  1,806
  2,302
  2,859
  3,467
  4,115
  4,788
  5,472
  6,150
  6,809
  7,437
  8,024
  8,561
  9,045
  9,471
  9,840
  10,152
  10,409
  10,616
  10,776
  10,896
  10,981
  11,035
  11,066
  11,077
  11,074
  11,063
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  125
  702
  1,017
  1,422
  1,924
  2,528
  3,232
  4,026
  4,900
  5,839
  6,823
  7,834
  8,851
  9,855
  10,830
  11,764
  12,644
  13,465
  14,221
  14,912
  15,538
  16,103
  16,612
  17,069
  17,483
  17,861
  18,209
  18,537
  18,850
  19,156
  19,464
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  755
  1,096
  1,539
  2,095
  2,770
  3,564
  4,475
  5,494
  6,608
  7,801
  9,055
  10,353
  11,676
  13,009
  14,338
  15,652
  16,944
  18,209
  19,444
  20,650
  21,829
  22,985
  24,124
  25,251
  26,375
  27,503
  28,642
  29,800
  30,985
  32,205
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -64
  -578
  -840
  -1,179
  -1,605
  -2,122
  -2,731
  -3,429
  -4,209
  -5,063
  -5,977
  -6,937
  -7,931
  -8,945
  -9,966
  -10,984
  -11,991
  -12,981
  -13,950
  -14,896
  -15,820
  -16,723
  -17,609
  -18,481
  -19,345
  -20,206
  -21,070
  -21,943
  -22,830
  -23,738
  -24,673
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  200
  256
  360
  490
  648
  834
  1,047
  1,285
  1,546
  1,825
  2,118
  2,421
  2,731
  3,043
  3,353
  3,661
  3,963
  4,259
  4,548
  4,830
  5,105
  5,376
  5,642
  5,906
  6,169
  6,433
  6,699
  6,970
  7,247
  7,532
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  187
  222
  288
  359
  431
  499
  559
  606
  637
  651
  646
  623
  586
  536
  479
  416
  353
  292
  236
  186
  143
  107
  78
  55
  38
  25
  17
  10
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.6
  55.5
  42.9
  33.9
  27.4
  22.5
  18.8
  16.0
  13.8
  12.1
  10.7
  9.6
  8.6
  7.9
  7.2
  6.7
  6.2
  5.9
  5.5
  5.2
  5.0
  4.8
  4.6
  4.4
  4.3
  4.1
  4.0
  3.9
  3.8
  3.7

Tricon Capital Group Inc. is a Canada-based company, which is a principal investor and asset manager focused on the residential real estate industry in North America. The Company operates through five segments: Private Funds and Advisory (PF&A), Principal Investing in Tricon Housing Partners (THP), Tricon American Homes (TAH), Tricon Lifestyle Communities (TLC) and Tricon Luxury Residences (TLR). In Private Funds and Advisory, the Company manages, on behalf of private investors, commingled funds, sidecars and separate investment accounts that invest in the development of real estate in North America. Tricon's investment activities are carried on through Tricon Housing Partners (land and homebuilding), Tricon American Homes (single-family rental), Tricon Lifestyle Communities (manufactured housing communities) and Tricon Luxury Residences (purpose-built multi-family apartments). It manages capital on behalf of third-party institutional and high net-worth accredited investors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tricon Capital Group Inc. (TCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.2
Price to Sales 8.1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 23.1%
Total Debt to Equity 23.1%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.1%
EBITDA Margin 76.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77%
Operating Margin 64.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 64.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
Net Profit Margin 53%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.3%
Effective Tax Rate 16.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Payout Ratio 28.8%

TCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $151 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tricon Capital Group Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tricon Capital Group Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for TCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tricon Capital Group Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tricon Capital Group Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Tricon Capital Group Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tricon Capital Group Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCN are equal to 24.8%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tricon Capital Group Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCN is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $986 million for Tricon Capital Group Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.333 million for Tricon Capital Group Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tricon Capital Group Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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Financial statements of TCN
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