Intrinsic value of TFI International Inc. - TFII

Previous Close

$31.82

  Intrinsic Value

$50.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+58%

Previous close

$31.82

 
Intrinsic value

$50.18

 
Up/down potential

+58%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TFII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.12
  18.40
  17.06
  15.85
  14.77
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.77
  10.19
  9.67
  9.21
  8.78
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
Revenue, $m
  4,025
  4,766
  5,579
  6,463
  7,418
  8,441
  9,530
  10,686
  11,905
  13,187
  14,531
  15,936
  17,403
  18,932
  20,523
  22,179
  23,899
  25,688
  27,546
  29,478
  31,485
  33,572
  35,743
  38,002
  40,353
  42,802
  45,354
  48,015
  50,789
  53,685
  56,708
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,409
  5,135
  5,924
  6,777
  7,690
  8,664
  9,695
  10,784
  11,929
  13,129
  14,231
  15,541
  16,906
  18,327
  19,805
  21,342
  22,939
  24,598
  26,323
  28,116
  29,980
  31,918
  33,935
  36,035
  38,222
  40,501
  42,876
  45,354
  47,940
  50,640
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,767
  4,409
  5,135
  5,924
  6,777
  7,690
  8,664
  9,695
  10,784
  11,929
  13,129
  14,231
  15,541
  16,906
  18,327
  19,805
  21,342
  22,939
  24,598
  26,323
  28,116
  29,980
  31,918
  33,935
  36,035
  38,222
  40,501
  42,876
  45,354
  47,940
  50,640
Operating income, $m
  258
  357
  444
  539
  641
  750
  867
  990
  1,121
  1,258
  1,402
  1,705
  1,862
  2,026
  2,196
  2,373
  2,558
  2,749
  2,948
  3,154
  3,369
  3,593
  3,825
  4,067
  4,318
  4,580
  4,853
  5,138
  5,435
  5,745
  6,068
EBITDA, $m
  451
  635
  743
  861
  988
  1,124
  1,269
  1,423
  1,585
  1,756
  1,935
  2,122
  2,317
  2,521
  2,733
  2,953
  3,182
  3,420
  3,668
  3,925
  4,192
  4,470
  4,759
  5,060
  5,373
  5,699
  6,039
  6,393
  6,763
  7,148
  7,551
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  55
  72
  90
  110
  131
  154
  179
  205
  232
  261
  291
  323
  355
  390
  425
  463
  501
  541
  583
  626
  671
  718
  767
  818
  870
  925
  983
  1,042
  1,104
  1,169
Earnings before tax, $m
  203
  302
  372
  448
  531
  619
  712
  812
  916
  1,026
  1,141
  1,414
  1,540
  1,670
  1,806
  1,948
  2,095
  2,248
  2,406
  2,571
  2,743
  2,921
  3,107
  3,300
  3,501
  3,710
  3,928
  4,156
  4,393
  4,641
  4,899
Tax expense, $m
  46
  81
  100
  121
  143
  167
  192
  219
  247
  277
  308
  382
  416
  451
  488
  526
  566
  607
  650
  694
  741
  789
  839
  891
  945
  1,002
  1,061
  1,122
  1,186
  1,253
  1,323
Net income, $m
  640
  220
  272
  327
  387
  452
  520
  592
  669
  749
  833
  1,032
  1,124
  1,219
  1,319
  1,422
  1,529
  1,641
  1,757
  1,877
  2,002
  2,133
  2,268
  2,409
  2,556
  2,708
  2,868
  3,034
  3,207
  3,388
  3,576

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,041
  4,780
  5,595
  6,482
  7,440
  8,466
  9,559
  10,718
  11,941
  13,226
  14,574
  15,984
  17,455
  18,989
  20,585
  22,245
  23,971
  25,765
  27,629
  29,566
  31,580
  33,673
  35,851
  38,116
  40,475
  42,931
  45,491
  48,159
  50,942
  53,847
  56,879
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,037
  4,780
  5,595
  6,482
  7,440
  8,466
  9,559
  10,718
  11,941
  13,226
  14,574
  15,984
  17,455
  18,989
  20,585
  22,245
  23,971
  25,765
  27,629
  29,566
  31,580
  33,673
  35,851
  38,116
  40,475
  42,931
  45,491
  48,159
  50,942
  53,847
  56,879
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
  0.997
Average production assets, $m
  1,611
  1,906
  2,231
  2,585
  2,967
  3,376
  3,812
  4,274
  4,762
  5,275
  5,812
  6,374
  6,961
  7,573
  8,209
  8,871
  9,560
  10,275
  11,018
  11,791
  12,594
  13,429
  14,297
  15,201
  16,141
  17,121
  18,142
  19,206
  20,316
  21,474
  22,683
Working capital, $m
  57
  110
  128
  149
  171
  194
  219
  246
  274
  303
  334
  367
  400
  435
  472
  510
  550
  591
  634
  678
  724
  772
  822
  874
  928
  984
  1,043
  1,104
  1,168
  1,235
  1,304
Total debt, $m
  1,585
  2,057
  2,578
  3,145
  3,757
  4,413
  5,111
  5,852
  6,633
  7,455
  8,316
  9,217
  10,157
  11,137
  12,157
  13,218
  14,321
  15,467
  16,658
  17,896
  19,182
  20,520
  21,912
  23,359
  24,866
  26,436
  28,072
  29,777
  31,555
  33,411
  35,349
Total liabilities, $m
  2,582
  3,054
  3,575
  4,142
  4,754
  5,410
  6,108
  6,849
  7,630
  8,452
  9,313
  10,214
  11,154
  12,134
  13,154
  14,215
  15,318
  16,464
  17,655
  18,893
  20,179
  21,517
  22,909
  24,356
  25,863
  27,433
  29,069
  30,774
  32,552
  34,408
  36,346
Total equity, $m
  1,459
  1,726
  2,020
  2,340
  2,686
  3,056
  3,451
  3,869
  4,311
  4,775
  5,261
  5,770
  6,301
  6,855
  7,431
  8,031
  8,654
  9,301
  9,974
  10,673
  11,400
  12,156
  12,942
  13,760
  14,611
  15,498
  16,422
  17,385
  18,390
  19,439
  20,533
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,041
  4,780
  5,595
  6,482
  7,440
  8,466
  9,559
  10,718
  11,941
  13,227
  14,574
  15,984
  17,455
  18,989
  20,585
  22,246
  23,972
  25,765
  27,629
  29,566
  31,579
  33,673
  35,851
  38,116
  40,474
  42,931
  45,491
  48,159
  50,942
  53,847
  56,879
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.086
  1.190
  1.280
  1.340
  1.400
  1.440
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  640
  220
  272
  327
  387
  452
  520
  592
  669
  749
  833
  1,032
  1,124
  1,219
  1,319
  1,422
  1,529
  1,641
  1,757
  1,877
  2,002
  2,133
  2,268
  2,409
  2,556
  2,708
  2,868
  3,034
  3,207
  3,388
  3,576
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  193
  278
  299
  322
  347
  374
  402
  432
  464
  498
  533
  417
  455
  495
  537
  580
  625
  672
  720
  771
  823
  878
  934
  994
  1,055
  1,119
  1,186
  1,255
  1,328
  1,404
  1,483
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  498
  570
  649
  734
  825
  922
  1,025
  1,133
  1,247
  1,366
  1,449
  1,579
  1,714
  1,855
  2,002
  2,154
  2,312
  2,477
  2,648
  2,825
  3,010
  3,202
  3,402
  3,611
  3,827
  4,053
  4,289
  4,535
  4,791
  5,059
Change in working capital, $m
  -105
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
Cash from operations, $m
  336
  481
  552
  629
  712
  802
  897
  998
  1,105
  1,217
  1,335
  1,417
  1,545
  1,679
  1,819
  1,964
  2,115
  2,271
  2,434
  2,603
  2,779
  2,962
  3,152
  3,350
  3,556
  3,771
  3,995
  4,228
  4,471
  4,725
  4,989
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -105
  -125
  -146
  -169
  -194
  -221
  -249
  -279
  -311
  -345
  -380
  -417
  -455
  -495
  -537
  -580
  -625
  -672
  -720
  -771
  -823
  -878
  -934
  -994
  -1,055
  -1,119
  -1,186
  -1,255
  -1,328
  -1,404
New CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -296
  -325
  -354
  -382
  -409
  -436
  -462
  -488
  -513
  -538
  -562
  -587
  -612
  -637
  -662
  -688
  -715
  -743
  -773
  -803
  -835
  -868
  -904
  -941
  -980
  -1,021
  -1,064
  -1,110
  -1,158
  -1,209
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -95
  -401
  -450
  -500
  -551
  -603
  -657
  -711
  -767
  -824
  -883
  -942
  -1,004
  -1,067
  -1,132
  -1,199
  -1,268
  -1,340
  -1,415
  -1,493
  -1,574
  -1,658
  -1,746
  -1,838
  -1,935
  -2,035
  -2,140
  -2,250
  -2,365
  -2,486
  -2,613
Free cash flow, $m
  241
  80
  102
  129
  162
  199
  241
  287
  338
  393
  453
  475
  542
  613
  687
  765
  846
  931
  1,019
  1,111
  1,206
  1,304
  1,406
  1,512
  1,622
  1,736
  1,855
  1,978
  2,106
  2,238
  2,377
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -26
  476
  521
  567
  612
  656
  699
  740
  781
  822
  861
  901
  940
  980
  1,020
  1,061
  1,103
  1,146
  1,191
  1,238
  1,287
  1,338
  1,391
  1,448
  1,507
  1,570
  1,636
  1,705
  1,778
  1,856
  1,938
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -145
  46
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -174
  522
  544
  567
  612
  656
  699
  740
  781
  822
  861
  901
  940
  980
  1,020
  1,061
  1,103
  1,146
  1,191
  1,238
  1,287
  1,338
  1,391
  1,448
  1,507
  1,570
  1,636
  1,705
  1,778
  1,856
  1,938
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  602
  646
  696
  773
  854
  939
  1,027
  1,119
  1,215
  1,314
  1,375
  1,482
  1,593
  1,707
  1,826
  1,949
  2,077
  2,210
  2,349
  2,492
  2,642
  2,798
  2,960
  3,129
  3,306
  3,490
  3,683
  3,884
  4,094
  4,314
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -432
  -267
  -294
  -320
  -346
  -370
  -395
  -418
  -441
  -464
  -487
  -509
  -531
  -554
  -576
  -599
  -623
  -648
  -673
  -699
  -727
  -756
  -786
  -818
  -851
  -887
  -924
  -963
  -1,005
  -1,048
  -1,095
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  336
  351
  376
  428
  484
  544
  609
  678
  751
  827
  867
  951
  1,039
  1,131
  1,227
  1,326
  1,430
  1,537
  1,649
  1,765
  1,886
  2,012
  2,142
  2,278
  2,419
  2,566
  2,720
  2,879
  3,046
  3,220
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  312
  302
  296
  307
  313
  315
  312
  304
  292
  275
  244
  223
  201
  177
  154
  131
  109
  88
  70
  55
  42
  31
  22
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.4
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7

TFI International Inc., formerly TransForce Inc., is engaged in transportation and logistics services across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The Company's segments include Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload, Truckload and Logistics. The Package and Courier segment consists of pickup, transport and delivery of items across North America. The Less-Than-Truckload segment offers pickup, consolidation, transport and delivery of smaller loads. The Truckload segment consists of full loads carried directly from the customer to the destination using a closed van or specialized equipment to meet customer's specific need. The Truckload segment also includes expedited transportation, flatbed, container and dedicated services. The Logistics segment offers logistics services. The Company has approximately 400 terminals. It also has approximately 100 terminals in the United States and over 10 terminals in Mexico. It offers services to retail, energy, and metals and mining industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TFI International Inc. (TFII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 105.8%
Total Debt to Equity 108.6%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Total Capital 22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 51.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
EBITDA Margin 10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 15.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Payout Ratio 10%

TFII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TFII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4025 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TFI International Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TFI International Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TFII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for TFII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TFI International Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TFI International Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TFII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TFII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TFI International Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TFI International Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TFII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TFII are equal to 40%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TFI International Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TFII is equal to 2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1459 million for TFI International Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 90.032 million for TFI International Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TFI International Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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Financial statements of TFII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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