Intrinsic value of Canopy Growth Corporation - WEED

Previous Close

$36.96

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$36.96

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of WEED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  207.69
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  40
  64
  99
  148
  215
  303
  416
  559
  733
  944
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,945
  6,640
  7,372
  8,139
  8,943
  9,783
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  86
  116
  158
  213
  283
  372
  481
  612
  766
  922
  1,127
  1,358
  1,616
  1,900
  2,210
  2,546
  2,906
  3,292
  3,701
  4,133
  4,589
  5,067
  5,567
  6,090
  6,635
  7,202
  7,793
  8,406
  9,045
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  55
  64
  86
  116
  158
  213
  283
  372
  481
  612
  766
  922
  1,127
  1,358
  1,616
  1,900
  2,210
  2,546
  2,906
  3,292
  3,701
  4,133
  4,589
  5,067
  5,567
  6,090
  6,635
  7,202
  7,793
  8,406
  9,045
Operating income, $m
  -15
  0
  13
  32
  57
  90
  133
  187
  253
  332
  426
  559
  683
  824
  980
  1,152
  1,340
  1,544
  1,763
  1,996
  2,244
  2,507
  2,783
  3,073
  3,376
  3,693
  4,023
  4,368
  4,726
  5,098
  5,485
EBITDA, $m
  -9
  33
  51
  76
  111
  157
  215
  289
  379
  488
  616
  765
  936
  1,128
  1,342
  1,578
  1,836
  2,115
  2,414
  2,734
  3,074
  3,433
  3,812
  4,209
  4,624
  5,059
  5,511
  5,983
  6,473
  6,983
  7,513
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  3
  6
  9
  14
  20
  28
  37
  48
  61
  76
  94
  113
  135
  159
  185
  214
  244
  277
  312
  348
  387
  428
  470
  514
  560
  609
  659
  711
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  0
  12
  28
  51
  81
  119
  167
  225
  295
  378
  498
  607
  730
  867
  1,017
  1,181
  1,358
  1,549
  1,752
  1,967
  2,195
  2,434
  2,686
  2,948
  3,223
  3,509
  3,807
  4,117
  4,439
  4,774
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  0
  3
  8
  14
  22
  32
  45
  61
  80
  102
  134
  164
  197
  234
  275
  319
  367
  418
  473
  531
  593
  657
  725
  796
  870
  947
  1,028
  1,112
  1,199
  1,289
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  9
  21
  37
  59
  87
  122
  164
  216
  276
  363
  443
  533
  633
  742
  862
  992
  1,131
  1,279
  1,436
  1,602
  1,777
  1,960
  2,152
  2,353
  2,562
  2,779
  3,005
  3,241
  3,485

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  703
  955
  1,476
  2,207
  3,202
  4,518
  6,211
  8,337
  10,948
  14,087
  17,793
  22,095
  27,013
  32,560
  38,739
  45,551
  52,986
  61,036
  69,686
  78,923
  88,733
  99,103
  110,022
  121,483
  133,479
  146,008
  159,074
  172,680
  186,837
  201,557
  216,856
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  601
  955
  1,476
  2,207
  3,202
  4,518
  6,211
  8,337
  10,948
  14,087
  17,793
  22,095
  27,013
  32,560
  38,739
  45,551
  52,986
  61,036
  69,686
  78,923
  88,733
  99,103
  110,022
  121,483
  133,479
  146,008
  159,074
  172,680
  186,837
  201,557
  216,856
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
  0.067
Average production assets, $m
  168
  268
  414
  619
  899
  1,268
  1,743
  2,339
  3,072
  3,953
  4,993
  6,200
  7,580
  9,136
  10,870
  12,781
  14,868
  17,126
  19,554
  22,146
  24,898
  27,808
  30,872
  34,088
  37,454
  40,969
  44,636
  48,453
  52,426
  56,556
  60,849
Working capital, $m
  161
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,334
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,891
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Total debt, $m
  10
  43
  96
  170
  270
  403
  574
  789
  1,053
  1,370
  1,744
  2,179
  2,675
  3,236
  3,860
  4,548
  5,299
  6,112
  6,985
  7,918
  8,909
  9,956
  11,059
  12,217
  13,428
  14,694
  16,013
  17,388
  18,818
  20,304
  21,849
Total liabilities, $m
  63
  96
  149
  223
  323
  456
  627
  842
  1,106
  1,423
  1,797
  2,232
  2,728
  3,289
  3,913
  4,601
  5,352
  6,165
  7,038
  7,971
  8,962
  10,009
  11,112
  12,270
  13,481
  14,747
  16,066
  17,441
  18,871
  20,357
  21,902
Total equity, $m
  640
  859
  1,327
  1,984
  2,879
  4,062
  5,584
  7,495
  9,842
  12,664
  15,996
  19,863
  24,285
  29,271
  34,827
  40,950
  47,635
  54,871
  62,648
  70,952
  79,771
  89,094
  98,910
  109,213
  119,997
  131,262
  143,007
  155,240
  167,967
  181,200
  194,954
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  703
  955
  1,476
  2,207
  3,202
  4,518
  6,211
  8,337
  10,948
  14,087
  17,793
  22,095
  27,013
  32,560
  38,740
  45,551
  52,987
  61,036
  69,686
  78,923
  88,733
  99,103
  110,022
  121,483
  133,478
  146,009
  159,073
  172,681
  186,838
  201,557
  216,856
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.016
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.895
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899
  0.899

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  9
  21
  37
  59
  87
  122
  164
  216
  276
  363
  443
  533
  633
  742
  862
  992
  1,131
  1,279
  1,436
  1,602
  1,777
  1,960
  2,152
  2,353
  2,562
  2,779
  3,005
  3,241
  3,485
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  33
  38
  45
  54
  66
  82
  102
  126
  156
  191
  207
  253
  305
  362
  426
  496
  571
  652
  738
  830
  927
  1,029
  1,136
  1,248
  1,366
  1,488
  1,615
  1,748
  1,885
  2,028
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  33
  46
  65
  91
  125
  169
  224
  291
  371
  466
  570
  696
  837
  995
  1,168
  1,358
  1,562
  1,782
  2,017
  2,266
  2,529
  2,806
  3,097
  3,401
  3,718
  4,049
  4,394
  4,753
  5,126
  5,513
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  57
  71
  87
  105
  124
  144
  165
  186
  207
  228
  249
  270
  290
  309
  329
  347
  366
  384
  402
  420
  438
  456
  474
  493
  513
Cash from operations, $m
  -27
  21
  29
  41
  58
  81
  112
  153
  203
  266
  342
  426
  531
  652
  788
  940
  1,109
  1,293
  1,493
  1,707
  1,937
  2,182
  2,440
  2,713
  2,999
  3,299
  3,612
  3,938
  4,279
  4,633
  5,001
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -30
  -42
  -58
  -78
  -102
  -132
  -166
  -207
  -253
  -305
  -362
  -426
  -496
  -571
  -652
  -738
  -830
  -927
  -1,029
  -1,136
  -1,248
  -1,366
  -1,488
  -1,615
  -1,748
  -1,885
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -101
  -146
  -205
  -279
  -369
  -475
  -597
  -732
  -881
  -1,040
  -1,207
  -1,380
  -1,556
  -1,734
  -1,911
  -2,086
  -2,259
  -2,427
  -2,592
  -2,753
  -2,910
  -3,064
  -3,216
  -3,366
  -3,516
  -3,666
  -3,818
  -3,972
  -4,130
  -4,293
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -107
  -155
  -219
  -300
  -399
  -517
  -655
  -810
  -983
  -1,172
  -1,373
  -1,587
  -1,809
  -2,039
  -2,273
  -2,512
  -2,755
  -2,998
  -3,244
  -3,491
  -3,740
  -3,991
  -4,245
  -4,502
  -4,764
  -5,032
  -5,306
  -5,587
  -5,878
  -6,178
Free cash flow, $m
  -46
  -85
  -126
  -178
  -242
  -318
  -405
  -502
  -607
  -717
  -829
  -948
  -1,056
  -1,158
  -1,251
  -1,333
  -1,404
  -1,461
  -1,506
  -1,536
  -1,553
  -1,558
  -1,551
  -1,532
  -1,503
  -1,466
  -1,420
  -1,367
  -1,309
  -1,245
  -1,177
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  35
  53
  74
  101
  133
  171
  215
  264
  317
  374
  434
  497
  560
  624
  688
  751
  813
  874
  933
  991
  1,047
  1,103
  1,157
  1,212
  1,266
  1,320
  1,374
  1,430
  1,487
  1,545
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  137
  319
  459
  637
  858
  1,124
  1,435
  1,790
  2,182
  2,607
  3,056
  3,504
  3,978
  4,454
  4,923
  5,381
  5,823
  6,245
  6,646
  7,025
  7,383
  7,720
  8,039
  8,342
  8,632
  8,912
  9,184
  9,453
  9,722
  9,992
  10,269
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  132
  354
  512
  711
  959
  1,257
  1,606
  2,005
  2,446
  2,924
  3,430
  3,938
  4,475
  5,014
  5,547
  6,069
  6,574
  7,058
  7,520
  7,958
  8,374
  8,767
  9,142
  9,499
  9,844
  10,178
  10,504
  10,827
  11,152
  11,479
  11,814
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  269
  386
  533
  716
  939
  1,201
  1,502
  1,839
  2,207
  2,601
  2,991
  3,419
  3,856
  4,297
  4,736
  5,170
  5,596
  6,014
  6,422
  6,820
  7,210
  7,592
  7,968
  8,340
  8,711
  9,084
  9,460
  9,843
  10,234
  10,637
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -516
  -319
  -468
  -657
  -895
  -1,183
  -1,522
  -1,911
  -2,347
  -2,822
  -3,332
  -3,867
  -4,421
  -4,987
  -5,556
  -6,123
  -6,685
  -7,236
  -7,777
  -8,304
  -8,819
  -9,323
  -9,816
  -10,303
  -10,784
  -11,264
  -11,746
  -12,232
  -12,727
  -13,233
  -13,754
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  50
  -82
  -125
  -179
  -244
  -321
  -409
  -508
  -616
  -731
  -876
  -1,002
  -1,130
  -1,259
  -1,388
  -1,515
  -1,640
  -1,762
  -1,882
  -1,999
  -2,113
  -2,225
  -2,335
  -2,444
  -2,553
  -2,662
  -2,772
  -2,884
  -2,999
  -3,117
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  48
  -75
  -109
  -147
  -189
  -233
  -276
  -317
  -354
  -383
  -416
  -428
  -430
  -423
  -407
  -385
  -357
  -325
  -290
  -254
  -219
  -185
  -153
  -124
  -99
  -78
  -60
  -45
  -33
  -23
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.4
  89.6
  85.5
  82.0
  78.9
  76.2
  73.8
  71.8
  69.9
  68.3
  66.8
  65.5
  64.3
  63.2
  62.3
  61.4
  60.6
  59.9
  59.2
  58.6
  58.0
  57.5
  57.0
  56.6
  56.2
  55.8
  55.4
  55.1
  54.8
  54.4

Canopy Growth Corporation, formerly Tweed Marijuana Inc., is a diversified cannabis company. The Company, through its subsidiaries Tweed Inc. (Tweed), Bedrocan Canada Inc. (Bedrocan) and Tweed Farms Inc. (Tweed Farms), is engaged in the business of producing and selling legal marijuana in the Canadian medical market. It is also focusing on producing and selling marijuana in the recreational market in Canada. Its core brands are Tweed and Bedrocan. Tweed is a licensed producer of medical marijuana. Tweed's commercial license covers approximately 168,000 square feet of its Smiths Falls facility and allows Tweed to produce and sell approximately 3,540 kilograms of medical marijuana per year. Tweed's built-out production capacity is over 10 climate controlled indoor growing rooms. Bedrocan is a medical-grade cannabis. Bedrocan's over 52,000 square feet production facility in Toronto, Ontario is licensed, and includes over 30 vegetative and growing rooms, and over three dispensing rooms.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canopy Growth Corporation (WEED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -749.3
Price to Sales 149.9
Price to Book 9.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -222
Price to Free Cash Flow -105.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 207.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 51
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 1.3%
Total Debt to Equity 1.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Return On Total Capital -2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Return On Equity -2.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -55%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -169.6%
EBITDA Margin -10%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -139.2%
Operating Margin -37.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -170.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166%
Net Profit Margin -20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -166.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

WEED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the WEED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $40 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canopy Growth Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Canopy Growth Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our WEED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for WEED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canopy Growth Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canopy Growth Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of WEED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 122.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for WEED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Canopy Growth Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canopy Growth Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the WEED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for WEED are equal to 418.8%.

Life of production assets of 49.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canopy Growth Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for WEED is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $640 million for Canopy Growth Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 190.989 million for Canopy Growth Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canopy Growth Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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