Intrinsic value of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - AEM

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$65.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$65.00

 
Intrinsic value

$5.49

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.72
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  2,889
  2,987
  3,094
  3,208
  3,331
  3,463
  3,603
  3,753
  3,912
  4,080
  4,259
  4,448
  4,648
  4,860
  5,083
  5,318
  5,567
  5,829
  6,104
  6,395
  6,701
  7,023
  7,362
  7,718
  8,093
  8,488
  8,902
  9,338
  9,796
  10,278
  10,784
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,742
  2,836
  2,938
  3,047
  3,164
  3,288
  3,421
  3,561
  3,711
  3,869
  3,943
  4,120
  4,308
  4,506
  4,714
  4,935
  5,167
  5,411
  5,669
  5,940
  6,225
  6,526
  6,842
  7,174
  7,524
  7,891
  8,278
  8,684
  9,111
  9,559
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,403
  2,742
  2,836
  2,938
  3,047
  3,164
  3,288
  3,421
  3,561
  3,711
  3,869
  3,943
  4,120
  4,308
  4,506
  4,714
  4,935
  5,167
  5,411
  5,669
  5,940
  6,225
  6,526
  6,842
  7,174
  7,524
  7,891
  8,278
  8,684
  9,111
  9,559
Operating income, $m
  486
  245
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  390
  505
  528
  552
  577
  604
  632
  662
  693
  726
  761
  798
  836
  877
  919
  964
  1,011
  1,061
  1,113
  1,167
  1,225
EBITDA, $m
  1,314
  1,089
  1,128
  1,169
  1,214
  1,262
  1,313
  1,368
  1,426
  1,487
  1,552
  1,621
  1,694
  1,771
  1,853
  1,939
  2,029
  2,125
  2,225
  2,331
  2,443
  2,560
  2,684
  2,813
  2,950
  3,094
  3,245
  3,404
  3,571
  3,747
  3,931
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  87
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  136
  146
  158
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  239
  255
  272
  291
  310
  330
  351
  374
  397
  422
  448
  475
  504
  534
  566
  600
Earnings before tax, $m
  363
  158
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  324
  333
  343
  354
  365
  377
  390
  403
  417
  431
  446
  463
  480
  497
  516
  536
  557
  578
  601
  625
Tax expense, $m
  148
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
Net income, $m
  215
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  236
  243
  251
  258
  267
  275
  284
  294
  304
  315
  326
  338
  350
  363
  377
  391
  406
  422
  439
  456

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  866
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,603
  9,025
  9,346
  9,692
  10,064
  10,461
  10,886
  11,337
  11,817
  12,327
  12,867
  13,438
  14,043
  14,682
  15,356
  16,068
  16,818
  17,609
  18,443
  19,320
  20,245
  21,217
  22,241
  23,318
  24,451
  25,642
  26,895
  28,212
  29,596
  31,051
  32,581
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,737
  9,025
  9,346
  9,692
  10,064
  10,461
  10,886
  11,337
  11,817
  12,327
  12,867
  13,438
  14,043
  14,682
  15,356
  16,068
  16,818
  17,609
  18,443
  19,320
  20,245
  21,217
  22,241
  23,318
  24,451
  25,642
  26,895
  28,212
  29,596
  31,051
  32,581
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  6,888
  7,122
  7,375
  7,648
  7,941
  8,255
  8,590
  8,946
  9,325
  9,727
  10,153
  10,604
  11,081
  11,585
  12,117
  12,679
  13,271
  13,895
  14,553
  15,246
  15,975
  16,743
  17,551
  18,400
  19,294
  20,235
  21,223
  22,262
  23,355
  24,503
  25,709
Working capital, $m
  1,090
  421
  436
  452
  470
  488
  508
  529
  552
  575
  601
  627
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  990
  1,038
  1,088
  1,141
  1,197
  1,255
  1,317
  1,381
  1,449
  1,521
Total debt, $m
  1,632
  1,556
  1,679
  1,811
  1,953
  2,106
  2,268
  2,441
  2,625
  2,820
  3,027
  3,246
  3,477
  3,722
  3,980
  4,253
  4,540
  4,843
  5,162
  5,499
  5,853
  6,225
  6,617
  7,030
  7,464
  7,920
  8,400
  8,904
  9,434
  9,992
  10,577
Total liabilities, $m
  3,534
  3,457
  3,580
  3,712
  3,854
  4,007
  4,169
  4,342
  4,526
  4,721
  4,928
  5,147
  5,378
  5,623
  5,881
  6,154
  6,441
  6,744
  7,063
  7,400
  7,754
  8,126
  8,518
  8,931
  9,365
  9,821
  10,301
  10,805
  11,335
  11,893
  12,478
Total equity, $m
  6,070
  5,568
  5,767
  5,980
  6,209
  6,455
  6,716
  6,995
  7,291
  7,606
  7,939
  8,292
  8,664
  9,059
  9,475
  9,914
  10,377
  10,865
  11,379
  11,921
  12,491
  13,091
  13,723
  14,387
  15,086
  15,821
  16,594
  17,407
  18,261
  19,159
  20,102
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,604
  9,025
  9,347
  9,692
  10,063
  10,462
  10,885
  11,337
  11,817
  12,327
  12,867
  13,439
  14,042
  14,682
  15,356
  16,068
  16,818
  17,609
  18,442
  19,321
  20,245
  21,217
  22,241
  23,318
  24,451
  25,642
  26,895
  28,212
  29,596
  31,052
  32,580
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  236
  243
  251
  258
  267
  275
  284
  294
  304
  315
  326
  338
  350
  363
  377
  391
  406
  422
  439
  456
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  828
  844
  870
  899
  930
  963
  998
  1,036
  1,076
  1,118
  1,163
  1,116
  1,166
  1,220
  1,276
  1,335
  1,397
  1,463
  1,532
  1,605
  1,682
  1,762
  1,847
  1,937
  2,031
  2,130
  2,234
  2,343
  2,458
  2,579
  2,706
Funds from operations, $m
  1,139
  959
  990
  1,023
  1,058
  1,096
  1,136
  1,179
  1,224
  1,273
  1,324
  1,352
  1,410
  1,470
  1,534
  1,601
  1,672
  1,747
  1,826
  1,909
  1,996
  2,088
  2,185
  2,287
  2,394
  2,507
  2,625
  2,750
  2,881
  3,018
  3,163
Change in working capital, $m
  87
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  71
Cash from operations, $m
  1,052
  957
  975
  1,007
  1,041
  1,077
  1,116
  1,158
  1,202
  1,249
  1,299
  1,326
  1,381
  1,440
  1,502
  1,568
  1,637
  1,710
  1,787
  1,868
  1,953
  2,043
  2,137
  2,237
  2,341
  2,451
  2,567
  2,688
  2,816
  2,950
  3,091
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -725
  -750
  -776
  -805
  -836
  -869
  -904
  -942
  -982
  -1,024
  -1,069
  -1,116
  -1,166
  -1,220
  -1,276
  -1,335
  -1,397
  -1,463
  -1,532
  -1,605
  -1,682
  -1,762
  -1,847
  -1,937
  -2,031
  -2,130
  -2,234
  -2,343
  -2,458
  -2,579
New CAPEX, $m
  -697
  -234
  -254
  -273
  -293
  -314
  -335
  -356
  -379
  -402
  -426
  -451
  -477
  -504
  -532
  -562
  -592
  -624
  -658
  -693
  -729
  -768
  -808
  -850
  -894
  -940
  -988
  -1,039
  -1,092
  -1,148
  -1,207
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -748
  -959
  -1,004
  -1,049
  -1,098
  -1,150
  -1,204
  -1,260
  -1,321
  -1,384
  -1,450
  -1,520
  -1,593
  -1,670
  -1,752
  -1,838
  -1,927
  -2,021
  -2,121
  -2,225
  -2,334
  -2,450
  -2,570
  -2,697
  -2,831
  -2,971
  -3,118
  -3,273
  -3,435
  -3,606
  -3,786
Free cash flow, $m
  304
  -2
  -28
  -43
  -57
  -72
  -87
  -103
  -119
  -135
  -151
  -194
  -212
  -230
  -249
  -269
  -290
  -311
  -333
  -357
  -381
  -406
  -433
  -461
  -490
  -520
  -552
  -585
  -620
  -656
  -695
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  76
  107
  123
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  258
  273
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  373
  392
  412
  434
  456
  480
  504
  530
  557
  586
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  278
  0
  103
  124
  144
  165
  187
  209
  231
  254
  278
  328
  353
  380
  407
  436
  465
  496
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  713
  755
  799
  845
  893
  944
  997
  1,052
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  353
  107
  226
  257
  286
  317
  349
  382
  415
  449
  485
  547
  585
  625
  665
  709
  752
  799
  847
  898
  951
  1,007
  1,064
  1,125
  1,189
  1,255
  1,325
  1,397
  1,474
  1,554
  1,638
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  658
  104
  95
  90
  85
  80
  75
  70
  65
  60
  55
  25
  20
  14
  9
  4
  -2
  -8
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -475
  -181
  -198
  -214
  -229
  -245
  -262
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -373
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -514
  -542
  -570
  -600
  -632
  -665
  -699
  -735
  -773
  -813
  -854
  -898
  -943
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  683
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  606
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  581
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.3
  98.4
  97.5
  96.5
  95.3
  94.2
  92.9
  91.7
  90.4
  88.9
  87.4
  85.9
  84.4
  82.8
  81.3
  79.8
  78.3
  76.8
  75.2
  73.8
  72.3
  70.8
  69.3
  67.9
  66.5
  65.1
  63.7
  62.3
  61.0

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Northern Business, Southern Business, and Exploration. The company primarily produces and sells gold, as well as explores for silver, zinc, and copper. Its flagship property is the LaRonde mine located in the Abitibi region of northwestern Quebec, Canada. As of December, 31, 2015, the LaRonde mine had a proven and probable mineral reserve of approximately 3.1 million ounces. The company has exploration activities in Canada, the European Union, Latin America, and the United States. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 68
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 40.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2889 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6070 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 233.448 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.2 billion.


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Stock chart of AEM Financial statements of AEM
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