Intrinsic value of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - AEM

Previous Close

$56.88

  Intrinsic Value

$5.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$56.88

 
Intrinsic value

$5.52

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,889
  2,947
  3,015
  3,092
  3,179
  3,275
  3,381
  3,496
  3,621
  3,755
  3,899
  4,054
  4,218
  4,393
  4,579
  4,777
  4,986
  5,208
  5,442
  5,690
  5,951
  6,227
  6,518
  6,825
  7,148
  7,488
  7,846
  8,223
  8,620
  9,038
  9,477
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,706
  2,766
  2,835
  2,912
  2,997
  3,091
  3,193
  3,304
  3,423
  3,551
  3,593
  3,739
  3,894
  4,059
  4,234
  4,420
  4,616
  4,824
  5,044
  5,275
  5,520
  5,778
  6,050
  6,336
  6,638
  6,955
  7,289
  7,641
  8,011
  8,400
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,403
  2,706
  2,766
  2,835
  2,912
  2,997
  3,091
  3,193
  3,304
  3,423
  3,551
  3,593
  3,739
  3,894
  4,059
  4,234
  4,420
  4,616
  4,824
  5,044
  5,275
  5,520
  5,778
  6,050
  6,336
  6,638
  6,955
  7,289
  7,641
  8,011
  8,400
Operating income, $m
  486
  241
  248
  257
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  349
  460
  479
  499
  520
  543
  566
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  740
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
EBITDA, $m
  1,314
  1,074
  1,099
  1,127
  1,159
  1,194
  1,232
  1,274
  1,320
  1,369
  1,421
  1,478
  1,538
  1,601
  1,669
  1,741
  1,818
  1,898
  1,984
  2,074
  2,169
  2,270
  2,376
  2,488
  2,605
  2,730
  2,860
  2,998
  3,142
  3,294
  3,454
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  87
  91
  95
  101
  107
  113
  121
  129
  137
  147
  157
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  247
  264
  281
  299
  318
  338
  360
  382
  406
  431
  457
  484
  513
Earnings before tax, $m
  363
  154
  158
  162
  166
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  304
  312
  320
  329
  339
  349
  359
  371
  382
  395
  408
  422
  437
  452
  468
  485
  503
  522
  542
  563
Tax expense, $m
  148
  41
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
Net income, $m
  215
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  142
  148
  222
  228
  234
  240
  247
  255
  262
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  319
  330
  342
  354
  367
  381
  396
  411

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  866
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,603
  8,903
  9,107
  9,341
  9,604
  9,895
  10,215
  10,563
  10,939
  11,345
  11,780
  12,246
  12,743
  13,272
  13,835
  14,432
  15,064
  15,734
  16,442
  17,190
  17,979
  18,813
  19,692
  20,618
  21,594
  22,622
  23,705
  24,844
  26,043
  27,304
  28,631
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,737
  8,903
  9,107
  9,341
  9,604
  9,895
  10,215
  10,563
  10,939
  11,345
  11,780
  12,246
  12,743
  13,272
  13,835
  14,432
  15,064
  15,734
  16,442
  17,190
  17,979
  18,813
  19,692
  20,618
  21,594
  22,622
  23,705
  24,844
  26,043
  27,304
  28,631
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  6,888
  7,025
  7,187
  7,371
  7,579
  7,809
  8,061
  8,335
  8,632
  8,952
  9,296
  9,664
  10,056
  10,473
  10,917
  11,388
  11,887
  12,415
  12,974
  13,564
  14,188
  14,845
  15,539
  16,270
  17,040
  17,851
  18,705
  19,604
  20,550
  21,546
  22,593
Working capital, $m
  1,090
  415
  425
  436
  448
  462
  477
  493
  511
  529
  550
  572
  595
  619
  646
  674
  703
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,274
  1,336
Total debt, $m
  1,632
  1,509
  1,587
  1,677
  1,777
  1,889
  2,011
  2,145
  2,289
  2,444
  2,611
  2,789
  2,980
  3,182
  3,398
  3,626
  3,869
  4,125
  4,396
  4,683
  4,985
  5,304
  5,641
  5,996
  6,370
  6,763
  7,178
  7,614
  8,073
  8,556
  9,065
Total liabilities, $m
  3,534
  3,410
  3,488
  3,578
  3,678
  3,790
  3,912
  4,046
  4,190
  4,345
  4,512
  4,690
  4,881
  5,083
  5,299
  5,527
  5,770
  6,026
  6,297
  6,584
  6,886
  7,205
  7,542
  7,897
  8,271
  8,664
  9,079
  9,515
  9,974
  10,457
  10,966
Total equity, $m
  6,070
  5,493
  5,619
  5,764
  5,926
  6,105
  6,303
  6,517
  6,750
  7,000
  7,269
  7,556
  7,863
  8,189
  8,536
  8,904
  9,295
  9,708
  10,144
  10,606
  11,093
  11,607
  12,150
  12,721
  13,324
  13,958
  14,626
  15,329
  16,068
  16,847
  17,665
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,604
  8,903
  9,107
  9,342
  9,604
  9,895
  10,215
  10,563
  10,940
  11,345
  11,781
  12,246
  12,744
  13,272
  13,835
  14,431
  15,065
  15,734
  16,441
  17,190
  17,979
  18,812
  19,692
  20,618
  21,595
  22,622
  23,705
  24,844
  26,042
  27,304
  28,631
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  142
  148
  222
  228
  234
  240
  247
  255
  262
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  319
  330
  342
  354
  367
  381
  396
  411
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  828
  834
  851
  870
  892
  916
  943
  971
  1,003
  1,036
  1,073
  1,017
  1,059
  1,102
  1,149
  1,199
  1,251
  1,307
  1,366
  1,428
  1,493
  1,563
  1,636
  1,713
  1,794
  1,879
  1,969
  2,064
  2,163
  2,268
  2,378
Funds from operations, $m
  1,139
  946
  966
  988
  1,013
  1,041
  1,071
  1,105
  1,140
  1,179
  1,220
  1,239
  1,286
  1,336
  1,389
  1,446
  1,506
  1,569
  1,636
  1,707
  1,782
  1,861
  1,944
  2,031
  2,124
  2,221
  2,323
  2,431
  2,544
  2,664
  2,789
Change in working capital, $m
  87
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Cash from operations, $m
  1,052
  938
  956
  977
  1,001
  1,027
  1,057
  1,088
  1,123
  1,160
  1,200
  1,217
  1,263
  1,311
  1,363
  1,418
  1,476
  1,538
  1,603
  1,672
  1,745
  1,822
  1,903
  1,988
  2,078
  2,173
  2,273
  2,378
  2,488
  2,605
  2,727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -725
  -739
  -756
  -776
  -798
  -822
  -848
  -877
  -909
  -942
  -979
  -1,017
  -1,059
  -1,102
  -1,149
  -1,199
  -1,251
  -1,307
  -1,366
  -1,428
  -1,493
  -1,563
  -1,636
  -1,713
  -1,794
  -1,879
  -1,969
  -2,064
  -2,163
  -2,268
New CAPEX, $m
  -697
  -138
  -162
  -185
  -207
  -230
  -252
  -275
  -297
  -320
  -344
  -368
  -392
  -418
  -444
  -471
  -499
  -528
  -559
  -590
  -623
  -658
  -694
  -731
  -770
  -811
  -854
  -899
  -946
  -995
  -1,047
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -748
  -863
  -901
  -941
  -983
  -1,028
  -1,074
  -1,123
  -1,174
  -1,229
  -1,286
  -1,347
  -1,409
  -1,477
  -1,546
  -1,620
  -1,698
  -1,779
  -1,866
  -1,956
  -2,051
  -2,151
  -2,257
  -2,367
  -2,483
  -2,605
  -2,733
  -2,868
  -3,010
  -3,158
  -3,315
Free cash flow, $m
  304
  75
  55
  36
  18
  0
  -17
  -35
  -52
  -69
  -86
  -129
  -147
  -165
  -183
  -202
  -221
  -242
  -262
  -284
  -306
  -329
  -353
  -379
  -405
  -432
  -460
  -490
  -521
  -554
  -588
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  76
  60
  78
  90
  101
  112
  122
  133
  144
  155
  167
  178
  190
  203
  215
  229
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
  319
  337
  355
  374
  394
  415
  436
  459
  483
  508
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  278
  0
  11
  26
  41
  55
  68
  82
  95
  108
  121
  66
  79
  93
  107
  121
  136
  151
  166
  182
  199
  216
  234
  253
  272
  292
  314
  336
  359
  383
  408
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  353
  60
  89
  116
  142
  167
  190
  215
  239
  263
  288
  244
  269
  296
  322
  350
  378
  407
  437
  469
  502
  535
  571
  608
  646
  686
  729
  772
  818
  866
  916
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  658
  135
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  156
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  296
  312
  328
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -475
  -106
  -126
  -144
  -162
  -180
  -197
  -215
  -232
  -250
  -269
  -287
  -307
  -327
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -462
  -487
  -514
  -542
  -572
  -602
  -634
  -668
  -703
  -740
  -778
  -819
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  683
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  712
  18
  8
  -3
  -14
  -24
  -35
  -45
  -56
  -67
  -172
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -400
  -421
  -443
  -466
  -490
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  682
  17
  7
  -3
  -11
  -17
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -82
  -78
  -74
  -70
  -65
  -59
  -54
  -48
  -43
  -37
  -32
  -27
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.4
  99.0
  98.4
  97.9
  97.2
  96.5
  95.7
  95.3
  94.9
  94.4
  93.8
  93.2
  92.6
  91.9
  91.2
  90.4
  89.6
  88.8
  88.0
  87.2
  86.3
  85.5
  84.6
  83.7
  82.8
  81.9
  81.0

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd is a Canada-based gold producer with mining operations in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut, as well as exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. It operates through the business units: Northern Business, which consists of its operations in Canada and Finland, such as the LaRonde mine, the Lapa mine, the Goldex mine, the Meadowbank mine, the Meliadine project and the Malartic Mine in Canada, as well as the Kittila mine in Finland; Southern Business, which consists of its operations in Mexico, such as the Pinos Altos mine that includes the Creston Mascota deposit and the La India mine owned by its indirect subsidiary, as well as Exploration Group, which focuses on the identification of new mineral reserves and mineral resources, and new development opportunities in gold producing regions. Its exploration activities are concentrated in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.5
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 36
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 40.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2889 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6070 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 232.149 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.2 billion.

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Financial statements of AEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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