Intrinsic value of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - AEM

Previous Close

$57.67

  Intrinsic Value

$5.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$57.67

 
Intrinsic value

$5.53

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.72
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  2,889
  2,955
  3,031
  3,117
  3,211
  3,315
  3,428
  3,550
  3,682
  3,823
  3,974
  4,135
  4,307
  4,490
  4,683
  4,888
  5,106
  5,335
  5,578
  5,834
  6,105
  6,390
  6,691
  7,008
  7,341
  7,692
  8,062
  8,451
  8,860
  9,291
  9,744
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,714
  2,781
  2,857
  2,941
  3,032
  3,133
  3,241
  3,358
  3,483
  3,617
  3,666
  3,818
  3,980
  4,151
  4,333
  4,526
  4,729
  4,945
  5,172
  5,412
  5,664
  5,931
  6,212
  6,507
  6,819
  7,146
  7,491
  7,854
  8,236
  8,637
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,403
  2,714
  2,781
  2,857
  2,941
  3,032
  3,133
  3,241
  3,358
  3,483
  3,617
  3,666
  3,818
  3,980
  4,151
  4,333
  4,526
  4,729
  4,945
  5,172
  5,412
  5,664
  5,931
  6,212
  6,507
  6,819
  7,146
  7,491
  7,854
  8,236
  8,637
Operating income, $m
  486
  242
  250
  260
  271
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  357
  470
  489
  510
  532
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  693
  726
  760
  796
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,107
EBITDA, $m
  1,314
  1,077
  1,105
  1,136
  1,171
  1,208
  1,249
  1,294
  1,342
  1,394
  1,449
  1,507
  1,570
  1,637
  1,707
  1,782
  1,861
  1,945
  2,033
  2,127
  2,225
  2,329
  2,439
  2,554
  2,676
  2,804
  2,939
  3,081
  3,230
  3,387
  3,552
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  87
  91
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  142
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  256
  273
  291
  310
  330
  350
  372
  396
  420
  446
  473
  501
  531
Earnings before tax, $m
  363
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  206
  308
  316
  325
  334
  344
  355
  366
  377
  389
  402
  416
  430
  445
  461
  478
  496
  514
  534
  554
  576
Tax expense, $m
  148
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  155
Net income, $m
  215
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  225
  231
  237
  244
  251
  259
  267
  275
  284
  294
  304
  314
  325
  337
  349
  362
  375
  390
  404
  420

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  866
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,603
  8,929
  9,158
  9,416
  9,701
  10,015
  10,356
  10,725
  11,123
  11,549
  12,006
  12,493
  13,012
  13,564
  14,149
  14,769
  15,425
  16,119
  16,853
  17,627
  18,444
  19,306
  20,214
  21,171
  22,179
  23,240
  24,357
  25,532
  26,769
  28,069
  29,437
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,737
  8,929
  9,158
  9,416
  9,701
  10,015
  10,356
  10,725
  11,123
  11,549
  12,006
  12,493
  13,012
  13,564
  14,149
  14,769
  15,425
  16,119
  16,853
  17,627
  18,444
  19,306
  20,214
  21,171
  22,179
  23,240
  24,357
  25,532
  26,769
  28,069
  29,437
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
Average production assets, $m
  6,888
  7,046
  7,227
  7,430
  7,655
  7,903
  8,172
  8,463
  8,777
  9,114
  9,474
  9,859
  10,268
  10,703
  11,165
  11,654
  12,172
  12,720
  13,298
  13,909
  14,554
  15,234
  15,951
  16,706
  17,501
  18,339
  19,220
  20,147
  21,123
  22,150
  23,229
Working capital, $m
  1,090
  417
  427
  439
  453
  467
  483
  501
  519
  539
  560
  583
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  787
  823
  861
  901
  943
  988
  1,035
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
  1,374
Total debt, $m
  1,632
  1,519
  1,607
  1,705
  1,815
  1,935
  2,065
  2,207
  2,359
  2,522
  2,697
  2,884
  3,083
  3,294
  3,518
  3,755
  4,007
  4,273
  4,554
  4,850
  5,163
  5,493
  5,841
  6,207
  6,593
  7,000
  7,428
  7,878
  8,351
  8,850
  9,373
Total liabilities, $m
  3,534
  3,420
  3,508
  3,606
  3,716
  3,836
  3,966
  4,108
  4,260
  4,423
  4,598
  4,785
  4,984
  5,195
  5,419
  5,656
  5,908
  6,174
  6,455
  6,751
  7,064
  7,394
  7,742
  8,108
  8,494
  8,901
  9,329
  9,779
  10,252
  10,751
  11,274
Total equity, $m
  6,070
  5,509
  5,651
  5,810
  5,986
  6,179
  6,389
  6,617
  6,863
  7,126
  7,408
  7,708
  8,029
  8,369
  8,730
  9,112
  9,517
  9,946
  10,398
  10,876
  11,380
  11,912
  12,472
  13,062
  13,684
  14,339
  15,028
  15,753
  16,516
  17,319
  18,163
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,604
  8,929
  9,159
  9,416
  9,702
  10,015
  10,355
  10,725
  11,123
  11,549
  12,006
  12,493
  13,013
  13,564
  14,149
  14,768
  15,425
  16,120
  16,853
  17,627
  18,444
  19,306
  20,214
  21,170
  22,178
  23,240
  24,357
  25,532
  26,768
  28,070
  29,437
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.269
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  225
  231
  237
  244
  251
  259
  267
  275
  284
  294
  304
  314
  325
  337
  349
  362
  375
  390
  404
  420
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  828
  836
  855
  876
  900
  926
  954
  985
  1,018
  1,053
  1,091
  1,038
  1,081
  1,127
  1,175
  1,227
  1,281
  1,339
  1,400
  1,464
  1,532
  1,604
  1,679
  1,759
  1,842
  1,930
  2,023
  2,121
  2,223
  2,332
  2,445
Funds from operations, $m
  1,139
  949
  971
  996
  1,023
  1,053
  1,085
  1,120
  1,158
  1,198
  1,242
  1,262
  1,312
  1,364
  1,419
  1,478
  1,540
  1,606
  1,675
  1,748
  1,826
  1,907
  1,993
  2,084
  2,179
  2,279
  2,385
  2,496
  2,613
  2,736
  2,865
Change in working capital, $m
  87
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Cash from operations, $m
  1,052
  939
  960
  984
  1,009
  1,038
  1,069
  1,103
  1,139
  1,178
  1,220
  1,240
  1,287
  1,338
  1,392
  1,449
  1,509
  1,573
  1,641
  1,712
  1,788
  1,867
  1,951
  2,039
  2,132
  2,230
  2,333
  2,441
  2,555
  2,675
  2,802
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -725
  -742
  -761
  -782
  -806
  -832
  -860
  -891
  -924
  -959
  -997
  -1,038
  -1,081
  -1,127
  -1,175
  -1,227
  -1,281
  -1,339
  -1,400
  -1,464
  -1,532
  -1,604
  -1,679
  -1,759
  -1,842
  -1,930
  -2,023
  -2,121
  -2,223
  -2,332
New CAPEX, $m
  -697
  -158
  -181
  -203
  -225
  -247
  -269
  -291
  -314
  -337
  -360
  -385
  -409
  -435
  -462
  -489
  -518
  -548
  -579
  -611
  -645
  -680
  -717
  -755
  -795
  -837
  -881
  -927
  -976
  -1,026
  -1,079
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -748
  -883
  -923
  -964
  -1,007
  -1,053
  -1,101
  -1,151
  -1,205
  -1,261
  -1,319
  -1,382
  -1,447
  -1,516
  -1,589
  -1,664
  -1,745
  -1,829
  -1,918
  -2,011
  -2,109
  -2,212
  -2,321
  -2,434
  -2,554
  -2,679
  -2,811
  -2,950
  -3,097
  -3,249
  -3,411
Free cash flow, $m
  304
  56
  37
  20
  2
  -15
  -32
  -49
  -65
  -82
  -99
  -142
  -160
  -178
  -196
  -216
  -235
  -256
  -277
  -299
  -321
  -345
  -370
  -395
  -422
  -450
  -479
  -509
  -541
  -574
  -609
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  76
  70
  88
  99
  109
  120
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  367
  386
  406
  428
  450
  474
  498
  524
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  278
  9
  25
  40
  53
  67
  80
  93
  106
  118
  131
  76
  89
  103
  117
  131
  146
  161
  177
  193
  210
  228
  246
  265
  285
  306
  327
  350
  373
  398
  424
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  353
  79
  113
  139
  162
  187
  211
  234
  258
  281
  306
  263
  288
  314
  341
  368
  397
  427
  458
  490
  523
  558
  594
  632
  671
  712
  755
  800
  847
  896
  948
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  658
  135
  151
  158
  165
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  207
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  162
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
  338
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -475
  -122
  -142
  -159
  -176
  -193
  -210
  -228
  -245
  -263
  -282
  -301
  -320
  -340
  -361
  -383
  -405
  -428
  -452
  -478
  -504
  -532
  -560
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -689
  -725
  -763
  -802
  -844
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  683
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  696
  9
  -1
  -11
  -22
  -32
  -42
  -53
  -64
  -75
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -506
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  667
  8
  -1
  -9
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -39
  -86
  -82
  -78
  -73
  -67
  -62
  -56
  -50
  -44
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.7
  99.4
  99.0
  98.5
  97.9
  97.3
  96.6
  95.8
  95.0
  94.6
  94.1
  93.6
  93.0
  92.3
  91.7
  91.0
  90.2
  89.5
  88.7
  87.9
  87.1
  86.3
  85.4
  84.5
  83.7
  82.8
  81.9
  81.0
  80.1

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with mining operations in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut and exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States. The Company operates through three business units. The Northern Business consists of its operations in Canada and Finland. The Company's Canadian properties include the LaRonde mine, the Lapa mine, the Goldex mine, the Meadowbank mine and the Meliadine project, and Canadian Malartic Mine. The operations in Finland include the Kittila mine. The Southern Business consists of its operations in Mexico. Its Pinos Altos mine includes the Creston Mascota deposit. The La India mine is owned by its indirect subsidiary. Its Exploration group focuses on the identification of new mineral reserves and mineral resources, and new development opportunities in gold producing regions. Its exploration activities are concentrated in Canada, Europe, Latin America and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60.3
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 26.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 3.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 44.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 40.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
Payout Ratio 44.7%

AEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2889 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AEM are equal to 238.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AEM is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6070 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 231.938 million for Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.4 billion.

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Financial statements of AEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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