Intrinsic value of Amaya Inc. - AYA

Previous Close

$22.52

  Intrinsic Value

$46.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+105%

  Value-price divergence*

-105%

Previous close

$22.52

 
Intrinsic value

$46.25

 
Up/down potential

+105%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-105%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AYA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.80
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  1,562
  1,718
  1,881
  2,052
  2,229
  2,414
  2,606
  2,805
  3,012
  3,228
  3,452
  3,685
  3,927
  4,178
  4,440
  4,713
  4,997
  5,294
  5,602
  5,925
  6,261
  6,612
  6,979
  7,362
  7,763
  8,182
  8,620
  9,079
  9,560
  10,063
  10,589
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,356
  1,448
  1,545
  1,646
  1,751
  1,860
  1,973
  2,091
  2,214
  2,341
  2,094
  2,232
  2,375
  2,524
  2,679
  2,840
  3,009
  3,184
  3,367
  3,558
  3,758
  3,966
  4,184
  4,412
  4,650
  4,899
  5,160
  5,433
  5,719
  6,019
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,164
  1,356
  1,448
  1,545
  1,646
  1,751
  1,860
  1,973
  2,091
  2,214
  2,341
  2,094
  2,232
  2,375
  2,524
  2,679
  2,840
  3,009
  3,184
  3,367
  3,558
  3,758
  3,966
  4,184
  4,412
  4,650
  4,899
  5,160
  5,433
  5,719
  6,019
Operating income, $m
  398
  363
  433
  507
  583
  663
  746
  832
  921
  1,014
  1,111
  1,590
  1,695
  1,804
  1,917
  2,034
  2,157
  2,285
  2,418
  2,557
  2,702
  2,854
  3,012
  3,178
  3,351
  3,532
  3,721
  3,919
  4,126
  4,343
  4,571
EBITDA, $m
  579
  833
  912
  995
  1,081
  1,170
  1,263
  1,360
  1,461
  1,565
  1,674
  1,787
  1,904
  2,026
  2,153
  2,285
  2,423
  2,567
  2,717
  2,873
  3,036
  3,206
  3,384
  3,570
  3,764
  3,967
  4,180
  4,403
  4,635
  4,879
  5,135
Interest expense (income), $m
  177
  170
  193
  217
  242
  268
  295
  324
  353
  383
  415
  448
  482
  518
  555
  594
  634
  675
  719
  764
  812
  861
  913
  967
  1,023
  1,082
  1,144
  1,208
  1,276
  1,347
  1,421
Earnings before tax, $m
  189
  192
  240
  289
  341
  395
  450
  508
  568
  631
  696
  1,142
  1,213
  1,286
  1,362
  1,441
  1,523
  1,609
  1,699
  1,793
  1,891
  1,993
  2,099
  2,211
  2,327
  2,449
  2,577
  2,711
  2,850
  2,997
  3,150
Tax expense, $m
  6
  52
  65
  78
  92
  107
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  308
  327
  347
  368
  389
  411
  435
  459
  484
  510
  538
  567
  597
  628
  661
  696
  732
  770
  809
  851
Net income, $m
  184
  140
  175
  211
  249
  288
  329
  371
  415
  460
  508
  834
  885
  938
  994
  1,052
  1,112
  1,175
  1,240
  1,309
  1,380
  1,455
  1,532
  1,614
  1,699
  1,788
  1,881
  1,979
  2,081
  2,188
  2,300

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  751
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,380
  7,281
  7,972
  8,694
  9,445
  10,227
  11,041
  11,886
  12,765
  13,678
  14,626
  15,613
  16,638
  17,705
  18,815
  19,971
  21,176
  22,431
  23,739
  25,104
  26,529
  28,017
  29,571
  31,195
  32,893
  34,669
  36,527
  38,471
  40,507
  42,638
  44,870
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,629
  7,281
  7,972
  8,694
  9,445
  10,227
  11,041
  11,886
  12,765
  13,678
  14,626
  15,613
  16,638
  17,705
  18,815
  19,971
  21,176
  22,431
  23,739
  25,104
  26,529
  28,017
  29,571
  31,195
  32,893
  34,669
  36,527
  38,471
  40,507
  42,638
  44,870
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
Average production assets, $m
  2,497
  2,746
  3,007
  3,279
  3,562
  3,857
  4,164
  4,483
  4,814
  5,158
  5,516
  5,888
  6,275
  6,677
  7,096
  7,532
  7,986
  8,459
  8,953
  9,468
  10,005
  10,566
  11,152
  11,765
  12,405
  13,075
  13,775
  14,509
  15,276
  16,080
  16,922
Working capital, $m
  -213
  -990
  -1,084
  -1,182
  -1,284
  -1,390
  -1,501
  -1,616
  -1,735
  -1,859
  -1,988
  -2,122
  -2,262
  -2,407
  -2,558
  -2,715
  -2,879
  -3,049
  -3,227
  -3,413
  -3,606
  -3,808
  -4,020
  -4,241
  -4,471
  -4,713
  -4,965
  -5,230
  -5,506
  -5,796
  -6,099
Total debt, $m
  3,281
  3,644
  4,097
  4,569
  5,062
  5,574
  6,107
  6,660
  7,236
  7,834
  8,455
  9,101
  9,773
  10,472
  11,199
  11,956
  12,745
  13,567
  14,424
  15,318
  16,252
  17,226
  18,244
  19,308
  20,420
  21,583
  22,800
  24,074
  25,407
  26,803
  28,265
Total liabilities, $m
  4,407
  4,769
  5,222
  5,694
  6,187
  6,699
  7,232
  7,785
  8,361
  8,959
  9,580
  10,226
  10,898
  11,597
  12,324
  13,081
  13,870
  14,692
  15,549
  16,443
  17,377
  18,351
  19,369
  20,433
  21,545
  22,708
  23,925
  25,199
  26,532
  27,928
  29,390
Total equity, $m
  2,974
  2,512
  2,750
  2,999
  3,259
  3,528
  3,809
  4,101
  4,404
  4,719
  5,046
  5,386
  5,740
  6,108
  6,491
  6,890
  7,306
  7,739
  8,190
  8,661
  9,153
  9,666
  10,202
  10,762
  11,348
  11,961
  12,602
  13,273
  13,975
  14,710
  15,480
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,381
  7,281
  7,972
  8,693
  9,446
  10,227
  11,041
  11,886
  12,765
  13,678
  14,626
  15,612
  16,638
  17,705
  18,815
  19,971
  21,176
  22,431
  23,739
  25,104
  26,530
  28,017
  29,571
  31,195
  32,893
  34,669
  36,527
  38,472
  40,507
  42,638
  44,870
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.103
  1.450
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.335
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  184
  140
  175
  211
  249
  288
  329
  371
  415
  460
  508
  834
  885
  938
  994
  1,052
  1,112
  1,175
  1,240
  1,309
  1,380
  1,455
  1,532
  1,614
  1,699
  1,788
  1,881
  1,979
  2,081
  2,188
  2,300
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  181
  471
  479
  488
  498
  508
  518
  528
  539
  551
  563
  196
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
  333
  352
  372
  392
  413
  436
  459
  484
  509
  536
  564
Funds from operations, $m
  332
  611
  654
  700
  747
  796
  846
  899
  954
  1,011
  1,071
  1,030
  1,094
  1,161
  1,231
  1,303
  1,378
  1,457
  1,539
  1,624
  1,714
  1,807
  1,904
  2,006
  2,112
  2,224
  2,340
  2,462
  2,590
  2,724
  2,864
Change in working capital, $m
  -141
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -303
Cash from operations, $m
  473
  701
  748
  798
  849
  902
  957
  1,014
  1,074
  1,136
  1,200
  1,164
  1,234
  1,306
  1,381
  1,460
  1,542
  1,627
  1,717
  1,810
  1,907
  2,009
  2,115
  2,227
  2,343
  2,465
  2,593
  2,727
  2,867
  3,013
  3,167
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -83
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -119
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -316
  -333
  -352
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -436
  -459
  -484
  -509
  -536
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -249
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -419
  -436
  -454
  -473
  -493
  -515
  -537
  -561
  -586
  -613
  -640
  -670
  -701
  -733
  -768
  -804
  -842
Cash from investing activities, $m
  39
  -332
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -414
  -436
  -458
  -480
  -504
  -530
  -556
  -583
  -611
  -642
  -673
  -705
  -739
  -775
  -813
  -853
  -894
  -938
  -985
  -1,032
  -1,083
  -1,137
  -1,192
  -1,252
  -1,313
  -1,378
Free cash flow, $m
  512
  368
  396
  425
  456
  488
  522
  557
  593
  631
  670
  608
  651
  695
  740
  788
  837
  888
  941
  997
  1,054
  1,115
  1,177
  1,243
  1,311
  1,382
  1,456
  1,534
  1,615
  1,700
  1,789
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -333
  428
  453
  473
  492
  512
  533
  554
  575
  598
  621
  646
  672
  699
  727
  757
  789
  822
  857
  894
  933
  974
  1,018
  1,064
  1,112
  1,163
  1,217
  1,274
  1,333
  1,396
  1,462
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  83
  63
  38
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -507
  511
  516
  511
  502
  512
  533
  554
  575
  598
  621
  646
  672
  699
  727
  757
  789
  822
  857
  894
  933
  974
  1,018
  1,064
  1,112
  1,163
  1,217
  1,274
  1,333
  1,396
  1,462
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  880
  913
  936
  959
  1,001
  1,054
  1,110
  1,168
  1,229
  1,291
  1,254
  1,322
  1,393
  1,467
  1,545
  1,626
  1,710
  1,798
  1,891
  1,988
  2,089
  2,195
  2,306
  2,423
  2,545
  2,673
  2,808
  2,949
  3,096
  3,251
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -247
  -224
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -399
  -415
  -433
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -513
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -641
  -671
  -702
  -735
  -770
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  686
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,342
  674
  687
  699
  731
  774
  819
  865
  914
  964
  914
  969
  1,025
  1,084
  1,146
  1,210
  1,277
  1,347
  1,420
  1,496
  1,576
  1,659
  1,746
  1,837
  1,933
  2,032
  2,137
  2,246
  2,361
  2,481
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,255
  586
  551
  514
  488
  466
  441
  412
  381
  349
  283
  254
  225
  196
  168
  142
  118
  96
  77
  60
  46
  35
  25
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.8
  94.7
  93.5
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2
  93.2

Amaya Inc. provides technology-based products and services to the global gaming and interactive entertainment industries. The company operates through two segments, Real-Money Online Poker, and Real-Money Online Casino and Sportsbook. It owns and operates gaming and related interactive entertainment businesses under the PokerStars, Full Tilt, BetStars, StarsDraft, European Poker Tour, PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, LatinAmerican Poker Tour, and Asia Pacific Poker Tour brand names. The company was formerly known as Amaya Gaming Group Inc. and changed its name to Amaya, Inc. in December 2014. Amaya, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Montréal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amaya Inc. (AYA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.8
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 108.1%
Total Debt to Equity 110.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 35%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Operating Margin 25.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 11.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 3.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -81.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AYA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AYA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1562 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amaya Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amaya Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AYA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for AYA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amaya Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amaya Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AYA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AYA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Amaya Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amaya Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AYA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AYA are equal to 159.8%.

Life of production assets of 34.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amaya Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AYA is equal to -57.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2974 million for Amaya Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 146.8 million for Amaya Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amaya Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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Stock chart of AYA Financial statements of AYA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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