Intrinsic value of Brookfield Business Partners L.P. - BBU-UN

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$32.86

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$32.86

 
Intrinsic value

$178.90

 
Up/down potential

+444%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBU-UN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.88
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  10,755
  11,508
  12,290
  13,104
  13,950
  14,831
  15,748
  16,702
  17,697
  18,734
  19,816
  20,945
  22,124
  23,355
  24,642
  25,986
  27,393
  28,864
  30,403
  32,015
  33,702
  35,469
  37,320
  39,260
  41,292
  43,423
  45,656
  47,998
  50,454
  53,029
  55,731
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  10,968
  11,703
  12,467
  13,262
  14,090
  14,951
  15,848
  16,783
  17,757
  18,774
  19,679
  20,786
  21,943
  23,152
  24,415
  25,736
  27,119
  28,565
  30,079
  31,664
  33,324
  35,064
  36,886
  38,795
  40,797
  42,896
  45,096
  47,403
  49,823
  52,361
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,005
  10,968
  11,703
  12,467
  13,262
  14,090
  14,951
  15,848
  16,783
  17,757
  18,774
  19,679
  20,786
  21,943
  23,152
  24,415
  25,736
  27,119
  28,565
  30,079
  31,664
  33,324
  35,064
  36,886
  38,795
  40,797
  42,896
  45,096
  47,403
  49,823
  52,361
Operating income, $m
  -250
  540
  588
  637
  688
  741
  797
  854
  915
  977
  1,043
  1,267
  1,338
  1,412
  1,490
  1,571
  1,656
  1,745
  1,838
  1,936
  2,038
  2,145
  2,257
  2,374
  2,497
  2,626
  2,761
  2,902
  3,051
  3,207
  3,370
EBITDA, $m
  136
  984
  1,051
  1,121
  1,193
  1,269
  1,347
  1,429
  1,514
  1,603
  1,695
  1,792
  1,893
  1,998
  2,108
  2,223
  2,343
  2,469
  2,601
  2,739
  2,883
  3,034
  3,193
  3,358
  3,532
  3,715
  3,906
  4,106
  4,316
  4,536
  4,767
Interest expense (income), $m
  100
  63
  84
  105
  127
  150
  174
  199
  225
  252
  281
  310
  341
  373
  406
  441
  478
  516
  556
  598
  642
  688
  736
  786
  839
  894
  952
  1,013
  1,077
  1,144
  1,214
Earnings before tax, $m
  -295
  477
  504
  532
  561
  591
  622
  655
  689
  725
  762
  957
  997
  1,039
  1,084
  1,130
  1,178
  1,229
  1,282
  1,338
  1,396
  1,457
  1,521
  1,588
  1,658
  1,731
  1,808
  1,889
  1,974
  2,063
  2,156
Tax expense, $m
  -22
  129
  136
  144
  151
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  258
  269
  281
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
  361
  377
  393
  411
  429
  448
  467
  488
  510
  533
  557
  582
Net income, $m
  -39
  348
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  556
  698
  728
  759
  791
  825
  860
  897
  936
  977
  1,019
  1,063
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,264
  1,320
  1,379
  1,441
  1,506
  1,574

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,871
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,069
  9,844
  10,514
  11,210
  11,934
  12,687
  13,471
  14,288
  15,139
  16,026
  16,951
  17,917
  18,926
  19,979
  21,079
  22,230
  23,433
  24,691
  26,008
  27,387
  28,830
  30,341
  31,925
  33,584
  35,323
  37,145
  39,056
  41,059
  43,160
  45,363
  47,674
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,198
  9,844
  10,514
  11,210
  11,934
  12,687
  13,471
  14,288
  15,139
  16,026
  16,951
  17,917
  18,926
  19,979
  21,079
  22,230
  23,433
  24,691
  26,008
  27,387
  28,830
  30,341
  31,925
  33,584
  35,323
  37,145
  39,056
  41,059
  43,160
  45,363
  47,674
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
Average production assets, $m
  3,564
  3,809
  4,068
  4,337
  4,618
  4,909
  5,212
  5,528
  5,858
  6,201
  6,559
  6,933
  7,323
  7,731
  8,156
  8,602
  9,067
  9,554
  10,064
  10,597
  11,155
  11,740
  12,353
  12,995
  13,668
  14,373
  15,112
  15,887
  16,700
  17,553
  18,447
Working capital, $m
  2,054
  794
  848
  904
  963
  1,023
  1,087
  1,152
  1,221
  1,293
  1,367
  1,445
  1,527
  1,612
  1,700
  1,793
  1,890
  1,992
  2,098
  2,209
  2,325
  2,447
  2,575
  2,709
  2,849
  2,996
  3,150
  3,312
  3,481
  3,659
  3,845
Total debt, $m
  2,096
  2,045
  2,565
  3,105
  3,666
  4,251
  4,859
  5,493
  6,154
  6,842
  7,560
  8,310
  9,092
  9,910
  10,763
  11,656
  12,590
  13,566
  14,588
  15,658
  16,778
  17,951
  19,180
  20,467
  21,816
  23,231
  24,713
  26,268
  27,898
  29,608
  31,401
Total liabilities, $m
  7,690
  7,639
  8,159
  8,699
  9,260
  9,845
  10,453
  11,087
  11,748
  12,436
  13,154
  13,904
  14,686
  15,504
  16,357
  17,250
  18,184
  19,160
  20,182
  21,252
  22,372
  23,545
  24,774
  26,061
  27,410
  28,825
  30,307
  31,862
  33,492
  35,202
  36,995
Total equity, $m
  3,379
  2,205
  2,355
  2,511
  2,673
  2,842
  3,017
  3,200
  3,391
  3,590
  3,797
  4,013
  4,239
  4,475
  4,722
  4,979
  5,249
  5,531
  5,826
  6,135
  6,458
  6,796
  7,151
  7,523
  7,912
  8,321
  8,749
  9,197
  9,668
  10,161
  10,679
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,069
  9,844
  10,514
  11,210
  11,933
  12,687
  13,470
  14,287
  15,139
  16,026
  16,951
  17,917
  18,925
  19,979
  21,079
  22,229
  23,433
  24,691
  26,008
  27,387
  28,830
  30,341
  31,925
  33,584
  35,322
  37,146
  39,056
  41,059
  43,160
  45,363
  47,674
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.620
  0.930
  1.090
  1.240
  1.370
  1.500
  1.610
  1.720
  1.810
  1.910
  1.990
  2.070
  2.140
  2.210
  2.280
  2.340
  2.400
  2.450
  2.500
  2.550
  2.600
  2.640
  2.680
  2.720
  2.760
  2.790
  2.820
  2.860
  2.890
  2.910
  2.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.164
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -39
  348
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  556
  698
  728
  759
  791
  825
  860
  897
  936
  977
  1,019
  1,063
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,264
  1,320
  1,379
  1,441
  1,506
  1,574
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  386
  444
  464
  484
  505
  527
  550
  574
  599
  625
  653
  525
  555
  586
  618
  652
  687
  724
  762
  803
  845
  889
  936
  984
  1,035
  1,089
  1,145
  1,204
  1,265
  1,330
  1,397
Funds from operations, $m
  321
  792
  832
  872
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,103
  1,155
  1,209
  1,223
  1,283
  1,344
  1,409
  1,477
  1,547
  1,621
  1,698
  1,779
  1,864
  1,953
  2,046
  2,143
  2,246
  2,353
  2,465
  2,583
  2,706
  2,836
  2,971
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  169
  178
  186
Cash from operations, $m
  309
  509
  778
  816
  856
  898
  942
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,134
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
  1,450
  1,520
  1,592
  1,668
  1,748
  1,831
  1,918
  2,010
  2,105
  2,206
  2,311
  2,421
  2,537
  2,658
  2,785
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -270
  -289
  -308
  -329
  -350
  -372
  -395
  -419
  -444
  -470
  -497
  -525
  -555
  -586
  -618
  -652
  -687
  -724
  -762
  -803
  -845
  -889
  -936
  -984
  -1,035
  -1,089
  -1,145
  -1,204
  -1,265
  -1,330
New CAPEX, $m
  -195
  -245
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -374
  -390
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -465
  -487
  -510
  -533
  -558
  -585
  -613
  -642
  -673
  -705
  -739
  -775
  -813
  -852
  -894
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -130
  -515
  -548
  -577
  -609
  -641
  -675
  -711
  -748
  -787
  -828
  -871
  -915
  -963
  -1,012
  -1,063
  -1,117
  -1,174
  -1,234
  -1,295
  -1,361
  -1,430
  -1,502
  -1,578
  -1,657
  -1,740
  -1,828
  -1,920
  -2,017
  -2,117
  -2,224
Free cash flow, $m
  179
  -6
  230
  239
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  296
  306
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  333
  346
  359
  372
  386
  401
  416
  432
  448
  465
  483
  501
  520
  540
  561
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -721
  504
  519
  540
  562
  585
  609
  634
  660
  689
  718
  749
  782
  817
  854
  893
  934
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
  1,555
  1,630
  1,710
  1,793
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  742
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  807
  504
  519
  540
  562
  585
  609
  634
  660
  689
  718
  749
  782
  817
  854
  893
  934
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
  1,555
  1,630
  1,710
  1,793
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  955
  498
  749
  779
  809
  841
  875
  910
  946
  984
  1,024
  1,024
  1,068
  1,114
  1,163
  1,213
  1,267
  1,322
  1,381
  1,442
  1,506
  1,574
  1,645
  1,719
  1,797
  1,879
  1,965
  2,056
  2,150
  2,250
  2,354
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -965
  -142
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -389
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -518
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,316
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,672
  599
  623
  647
  673
  699
  727
  756
  786
  817
  808
  843
  879
  916
  956
  997
  1,040
  1,086
  1,133
  1,183
  1,235
  1,290
  1,348
  1,408
  1,471
  1,537
  1,607
  1,680
  1,756
  1,837
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,603
  549
  542
  533
  521
  507
  491
  472
  451
  428
  384
  360
  334
  308
  281
  253
  226
  200
  174
  150
  128
  107
  88
  72
  57
  45
  34
  26
  19
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Brookfield Business Partners L.P. seeks returns of at least 15% on its investments. Brookfield Business Partners L.P. is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Brookfield Business Partners L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brookfield Business Partners L.P. (BBU-UN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -43.7
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 45.6%
Total Debt to Equity 62%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Equity -1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
EBITDA Margin 1.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin -2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin -0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 7.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Payout Ratio -38.5%

BBU-UN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBU-UN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10755 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brookfield Business Partners L.P.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Brookfield Business Partners L.P.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBU-UN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BBU-UN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brookfield Business Partners L.P., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brookfield Business Partners L.P..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBU-UN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBU-UN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Brookfield Business Partners L.P..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brookfield Business Partners L.P.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBU-UN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBU-UN are equal to 33.1%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brookfield Business Partners L.P. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBU-UN is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3379 million for Brookfield Business Partners L.P. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.473 million for Brookfield Business Partners L.P. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brookfield Business Partners L.P. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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