Intrinsic value of CAE Inc. - CAE

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$20.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$20.90

 
Intrinsic value

$18.65

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.89
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  2,513
  2,787
  3,074
  3,375
  3,689
  4,016
  4,357
  4,711
  5,080
  5,463
  5,861
  6,274
  6,704
  7,151
  7,616
  8,099
  8,603
  9,127
  9,673
  10,242
  10,836
  11,456
  12,103
  12,778
  13,484
  14,221
  14,993
  15,799
  16,644
  17,527
  18,452
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,368
  2,607
  2,856
  3,117
  3,388
  3,671
  3,965
  4,271
  4,589
  4,919
  5,207
  5,563
  5,934
  6,320
  6,721
  7,139
  7,574
  8,027
  8,500
  8,992
  9,506
  10,043
  10,604
  11,189
  11,801
  12,441
  13,111
  13,811
  14,545
  15,312
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,177
  2,368
  2,607
  2,856
  3,117
  3,388
  3,671
  3,965
  4,271
  4,589
  4,919
  5,207
  5,563
  5,934
  6,320
  6,721
  7,139
  7,574
  8,027
  8,500
  8,992
  9,506
  10,043
  10,604
  11,189
  11,801
  12,441
  13,111
  13,811
  14,545
  15,312
Operating income, $m
  336
  419
  467
  519
  572
  628
  686
  746
  809
  874
  942
  1,068
  1,141
  1,217
  1,296
  1,378
  1,464
  1,553
  1,646
  1,743
  1,844
  1,949
  2,059
  2,174
  2,294
  2,420
  2,551
  2,689
  2,832
  2,983
  3,140
EBITDA, $m
  554
  662
  731
  802
  877
  954
  1,035
  1,120
  1,207
  1,298
  1,393
  1,491
  1,593
  1,700
  1,810
  1,925
  2,045
  2,169
  2,299
  2,434
  2,575
  2,723
  2,876
  3,037
  3,205
  3,380
  3,563
  3,755
  3,956
  4,166
  4,385
Interest expense (income), $m
  65
  59
  76
  93
  111
  130
  150
  171
  192
  215
  238
  262
  287
  313
  341
  369
  398
  429
  460
  494
  528
  564
  602
  641
  682
  725
  770
  817
  866
  917
  970
Earnings before tax, $m
  260
  360
  392
  426
  461
  497
  535
  575
  616
  659
  704
  805
  854
  903
  955
  1,010
  1,066
  1,124
  1,186
  1,249
  1,316
  1,385
  1,458
  1,533
  1,612
  1,695
  1,781
  1,872
  1,967
  2,066
  2,170
Tax expense, $m
  20
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  355
  374
  394
  414
  435
  458
  481
  505
  531
  558
  586
Net income, $m
  230
  263
  286
  311
  336
  363
  391
  420
  450
  481
  514
  588
  623
  660
  697
  737
  778
  821
  865
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,064
  1,119
  1,177
  1,237
  1,300
  1,367
  1,436
  1,508
  1,584

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  486
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,997
  5,003
  5,519
  6,059
  6,623
  7,210
  7,822
  8,458
  9,120
  9,807
  10,522
  11,264
  12,036
  12,839
  13,673
  14,541
  15,445
  16,386
  17,367
  18,389
  19,455
  20,567
  21,728
  22,941
  24,208
  25,532
  26,917
  28,365
  29,881
  31,467
  33,128
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,511
  5,003
  5,519
  6,059
  6,623
  7,210
  7,822
  8,458
  9,120
  9,807
  10,522
  11,264
  12,036
  12,839
  13,673
  14,541
  15,445
  16,386
  17,367
  18,389
  19,455
  20,567
  21,728
  22,941
  24,208
  25,532
  26,917
  28,365
  29,881
  31,467
  33,128
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
Average production assets, $m
  1,832
  2,032
  2,241
  2,460
  2,689
  2,928
  3,176
  3,434
  3,703
  3,982
  4,272
  4,574
  4,887
  5,213
  5,552
  5,904
  6,271
  6,654
  7,052
  7,467
  7,900
  8,351
  8,823
  9,315
  9,830
  10,367
  10,930
  11,518
  12,133
  12,777
  13,452
Working capital, $m
  557
  212
  234
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  415
  445
  477
  510
  543
  579
  616
  654
  694
  735
  778
  824
  871
  920
  971
  1,025
  1,081
  1,139
  1,201
  1,265
  1,332
  1,402
Total debt, $m
  1,273
  1,482
  1,824
  2,182
  2,556
  2,945
  3,351
  3,773
  4,211
  4,667
  5,141
  5,633
  6,145
  6,677
  7,230
  7,806
  8,405
  9,029
  9,679
  10,357
  11,063
  11,801
  12,571
  13,375
  14,215
  15,093
  16,011
  16,971
  17,976
  19,028
  20,129
Total liabilities, $m
  3,108
  3,317
  3,659
  4,017
  4,391
  4,780
  5,186
  5,608
  6,046
  6,502
  6,976
  7,468
  7,980
  8,512
  9,065
  9,641
  10,240
  10,864
  11,514
  12,192
  12,898
  13,636
  14,406
  15,210
  16,050
  16,928
  17,846
  18,806
  19,811
  20,863
  21,964
Total equity, $m
  1,889
  1,686
  1,860
  2,042
  2,232
  2,430
  2,636
  2,850
  3,073
  3,305
  3,546
  3,796
  4,056
  4,327
  4,608
  4,900
  5,205
  5,522
  5,853
  6,197
  6,556
  6,931
  7,322
  7,731
  8,158
  8,604
  9,071
  9,559
  10,070
  10,604
  11,164
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,997
  5,003
  5,519
  6,059
  6,623
  7,210
  7,822
  8,458
  9,119
  9,807
  10,522
  11,264
  12,036
  12,839
  13,673
  14,541
  15,445
  16,386
  17,367
  18,389
  19,454
  20,567
  21,728
  22,941
  24,208
  25,532
  26,917
  28,365
  29,881
  31,467
  33,128
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.674
  0.880
  0.980
  1.070
  1.150
  1.210
  1.270
  1.320
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  230
  263
  286
  311
  336
  363
  391
  420
  450
  481
  514
  588
  623
  660
  697
  737
  778
  821
  865
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,064
  1,119
  1,177
  1,237
  1,300
  1,367
  1,436
  1,508
  1,584
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  218
  244
  263
  284
  305
  327
  350
  374
  399
  424
  451
  424
  453
  483
  514
  547
  581
  616
  653
  691
  731
  773
  817
  863
  910
  960
  1,012
  1,066
  1,123
  1,183
  1,246
Funds from operations, $m
  318
  506
  549
  594
  641
  690
  741
  794
  848
  906
  965
  1,012
  1,076
  1,142
  1,212
  1,284
  1,359
  1,437
  1,518
  1,603
  1,692
  1,784
  1,881
  1,982
  2,087
  2,197
  2,312
  2,433
  2,559
  2,691
  2,829
Change in working capital, $m
  -28
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
Cash from operations, $m
  346
  500
  527
  571
  617
  665
  715
  767
  820
  876
  935
  980
  1,043
  1,108
  1,176
  1,247
  1,320
  1,397
  1,477
  1,560
  1,647
  1,737
  1,832
  1,930
  2,034
  2,141
  2,254
  2,372
  2,495
  2,624
  2,759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -170
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -249
  -271
  -294
  -318
  -343
  -369
  -396
  -424
  -453
  -483
  -514
  -547
  -581
  -616
  -653
  -691
  -731
  -773
  -817
  -863
  -910
  -960
  -1,012
  -1,066
  -1,123
  -1,183
New CAPEX, $m
  -118
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -313
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -433
  -452
  -471
  -492
  -514
  -538
  -562
  -588
  -615
  -644
  -674
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -105
  -370
  -397
  -427
  -457
  -488
  -519
  -552
  -587
  -622
  -659
  -698
  -737
  -779
  -822
  -867
  -914
  -963
  -1,014
  -1,068
  -1,124
  -1,183
  -1,244
  -1,309
  -1,377
  -1,448
  -1,522
  -1,600
  -1,681
  -1,767
  -1,857
Free cash flow, $m
  241
  130
  130
  145
  161
  177
  195
  214
  234
  254
  276
  283
  306
  330
  355
  380
  407
  434
  463
  492
  523
  554
  587
  621
  657
  693
  732
  772
  813
  856
  902
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -43
  328
  342
  358
  374
  390
  406
  422
  439
  456
  474
  492
  512
  532
  553
  576
  599
  624
  650
  678
  707
  737
  770
  804
  840
  878
  918
  960
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  328
  342
  358
  374
  390
  406
  422
  439
  456
  474
  492
  512
  532
  553
  576
  599
  624
  650
  678
  707
  737
  770
  804
  840
  878
  918
  960
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  212
  459
  472
  502
  534
  567
  601
  636
  672
  710
  750
  775
  818
  862
  908
  956
  1,006
  1,058
  1,113
  1,170
  1,229
  1,292
  1,357
  1,425
  1,497
  1,571
  1,650
  1,732
  1,818
  1,908
  2,003
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -254
  -164
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -391
  -409
  -427
  -446
  -467
  -488
  -511
  -535
  -560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  367
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  661
  298
  321
  344
  369
  395
  422
  449
  479
  509
  525
  558
  591
  627
  663
  701
  741
  782
  825
  870
  917
  966
  1,016
  1,070
  1,125
  1,183
  1,244
  1,307
  1,373
  1,443
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  631
  270
  275
  277
  278
  276
  272
  266
  258
  248
  229
  216
  202
  186
  170
  153
  136
  120
  103
  88
  74
  61
  50
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies simulation equipment worldwide. It operates in three segments: Civil Aviation Training Solutions, Defence and Security, and Healthcare. The Civil Aviation Training Solutions segment provides a range of training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, and ground personnel in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services. The Defence and Security segment operates as a training systems integrator for defence forces in the air, land, and naval domains, as well as for government organizations responsible for public safety. The Healthcare segment designs, manufactures, and markets simulators; offers audiovisual and simulation center management solutions; and provides consulting and courseware services for training of medical and allied healthcare students, as well as clinicians in educational institutions, hospitals, and defence organizations. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in June 1993. CAE Inc. was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAE Inc. (CAE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.5
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 67.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Equity 13.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
EBITDA Margin 21.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin 13.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 7.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Payout Ratio 24.8%

CAE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2513 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAE Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAE Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for CAE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAE Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAE Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for CAE Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAE Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAE are equal to 72.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAE Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAE is equal to 7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1889 million for CAE Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 267.751 million for CAE Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAE Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.6 billion.


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Stock chart of CAE Financial statements of CAE
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