Intrinsic value of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V - CCA

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$79.41

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,176
  2,220
  2,271
  2,329
  2,394
  2,467
  2,547
  2,633
  2,727
  2,828
  2,937
  3,053
  3,177
  3,309
  3,449
  3,598
  3,756
  3,923
  4,099
  4,286
  4,482
  4,690
  4,909
  5,140
  5,384
  5,640
  5,910
  6,194
  6,493
  6,807
  7,138
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,700
  1,737
  1,779
  1,826
  1,878
  1,935
  1,998
  2,065
  2,138
  2,216
  2,193
  2,282
  2,377
  2,477
  2,584
  2,697
  2,817
  2,944
  3,078
  3,219
  3,369
  3,526
  3,692
  3,867
  4,051
  4,245
  4,449
  4,663
  4,889
  5,127
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,160
  1,700
  1,737
  1,779
  1,826
  1,878
  1,935
  1,998
  2,065
  2,138
  2,216
  2,193
  2,282
  2,377
  2,477
  2,584
  2,697
  2,817
  2,944
  3,078
  3,219
  3,369
  3,526
  3,692
  3,867
  4,051
  4,245
  4,449
  4,663
  4,889
  5,127
Operating income, $m
  16
  519
  534
  550
  569
  589
  611
  636
  662
  691
  721
  860
  895
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,263
  1,322
  1,383
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,918
  2,011
EBITDA, $m
  514
  983
  1,006
  1,031
  1,060
  1,093
  1,128
  1,166
  1,208
  1,253
  1,301
  1,352
  1,407
  1,466
  1,528
  1,594
  1,663
  1,737
  1,815
  1,898
  1,985
  2,077
  2,174
  2,277
  2,384
  2,498
  2,617
  2,743
  2,876
  3,015
  3,161
Interest expense (income), $m
  134
  122
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  244
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
Earnings before tax, $m
  -120
  397
  408
  421
  435
  450
  467
  485
  505
  526
  549
  680
  706
  733
  763
  794
  827
  862
  899
  938
  979
  1,022
  1,068
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,277
  1,336
  1,399
  1,464
  1,533
Tax expense, $m
  70
  107
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  395
  414
Net income, $m
  -190
  290
  298
  307
  317
  329
  341
  354
  369
  384
  401
  496
  515
  535
  557
  579
  604
  629
  656
  684
  714
  746
  780
  815
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,333
  5,374
  5,498
  5,639
  5,798
  5,973
  6,166
  6,376
  6,604
  6,849
  7,111
  7,393
  7,693
  8,012
  8,352
  8,712
  9,094
  9,498
  9,925
  10,377
  10,853
  11,356
  11,887
  12,446
  13,035
  13,656
  14,309
  14,997
  15,721
  16,482
  17,283
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,271
  5,374
  5,498
  5,639
  5,798
  5,973
  6,166
  6,376
  6,604
  6,849
  7,111
  7,393
  7,693
  8,012
  8,352
  8,712
  9,094
  9,498
  9,925
  10,377
  10,853
  11,356
  11,887
  12,446
  13,035
  13,656
  14,309
  14,997
  15,721
  16,482
  17,283
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
Average production assets, $m
  3,085
  3,147
  3,220
  3,302
  3,395
  3,498
  3,611
  3,734
  3,867
  4,011
  4,165
  4,329
  4,505
  4,692
  4,891
  5,102
  5,325
  5,562
  5,812
  6,077
  6,356
  6,651
  6,961
  7,289
  7,634
  7,997
  8,380
  8,783
  9,207
  9,653
  10,122
Working capital, $m
  -267
  -266
  -272
  -279
  -287
  -296
  -306
  -316
  -327
  -339
  -352
  -366
  -381
  -397
  -414
  -432
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -514
  -538
  -563
  -589
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -709
  -743
  -779
  -817
  -857
Total debt, $m
  2,905
  2,918
  3,009
  3,114
  3,231
  3,360
  3,503
  3,658
  3,825
  4,006
  4,200
  4,408
  4,629
  4,865
  5,115
  5,381
  5,663
  5,961
  6,277
  6,610
  6,962
  7,333
  7,725
  8,137
  8,572
  9,030
  9,512
  10,020
  10,554
  11,116
  11,707
Total liabilities, $m
  3,953
  3,966
  4,057
  4,162
  4,279
  4,408
  4,551
  4,706
  4,873
  5,054
  5,248
  5,456
  5,677
  5,913
  6,163
  6,429
  6,711
  7,009
  7,325
  7,658
  8,010
  8,381
  8,773
  9,185
  9,620
  10,078
  10,560
  11,068
  11,602
  12,164
  12,755
Total equity, $m
  1,380
  1,408
  1,440
  1,477
  1,519
  1,565
  1,616
  1,671
  1,730
  1,794
  1,863
  1,937
  2,015
  2,099
  2,188
  2,282
  2,383
  2,488
  2,600
  2,719
  2,844
  2,975
  3,114
  3,261
  3,415
  3,578
  3,749
  3,929
  4,119
  4,318
  4,528
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,333
  5,374
  5,497
  5,639
  5,798
  5,973
  6,167
  6,377
  6,603
  6,848
  7,111
  7,393
  7,692
  8,012
  8,351
  8,711
  9,094
  9,497
  9,925
  10,377
  10,854
  11,356
  11,887
  12,446
  13,035
  13,656
  14,309
  14,997
  15,721
  16,482
  17,283
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.105
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.190
  2.210
  2.230
  2.250
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.460
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.520
  2.540
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
  2.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.258
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -190
  290
  298
  307
  317
  329
  341
  354
  369
  384
  401
  496
  515
  535
  557
  579
  604
  629
  656
  684
  714
  746
  780
  815
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  498
  464
  472
  481
  492
  504
  516
  530
  546
  562
  579
  492
  512
  533
  556
  580
  605
  632
  661
  691
  722
  756
  791
  828
  868
  909
  952
  998
  1,046
  1,097
  1,150
Funds from operations, $m
  512
  754
  770
  788
  809
  832
  857
  885
  914
  946
  980
  988
  1,027
  1,068
  1,113
  1,159
  1,209
  1,261
  1,316
  1,375
  1,437
  1,502
  1,571
  1,643
  1,719
  1,800
  1,884
  1,973
  2,067
  2,166
  2,269
Change in working capital, $m
  -233
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from operations, $m
  745
  -266
  776
  795
  817
  841
  867
  895
  926
  958
  993
  1,002
  1,042
  1,084
  1,129
  1,177
  1,228
  1,281
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,527
  1,597
  1,671
  1,749
  1,831
  1,917
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -351
  -358
  -366
  -375
  -386
  -398
  -410
  -424
  -439
  -456
  -473
  -492
  -512
  -533
  -556
  -580
  -605
  -632
  -661
  -691
  -722
  -756
  -791
  -828
  -868
  -909
  -952
  -998
  -1,046
  -1,097
New CAPEX, $m
  -468
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -383
  -403
  -424
  -446
  -469
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -465
  -413
  -430
  -449
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -533
  -557
  -582
  -610
  -638
  -668
  -699
  -732
  -767
  -804
  -842
  -882
  -925
  -970
  -1,017
  -1,067
  -1,119
  -1,173
  -1,231
  -1,292
  -1,355
  -1,422
  -1,492
  -1,566
Free cash flow, $m
  280
  -679
  346
  347
  349
  352
  356
  362
  368
  375
  384
  364
  374
  385
  397
  410
  424
  439
  455
  472
  491
  510
  530
  552
  575
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -304
  75
  91
  104
  117
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  194
  208
  221
  236
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  632
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -304
  707
  91
  104
  117
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  194
  208
  221
  236
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -24
  -604
  437
  451
  466
  482
  499
  517
  536
  556
  578
  572
  596
  621
  648
  676
  706
  738
  771
  806
  842
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,058
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  379
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -210
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  405
  414
  424
  436
  448
  462
  476
  492
  509
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  606
  632
  659
  687
  718
  749
  783
  818
  856
  895
  936
  980
  1,026
  1,074
  1,124
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  343
  319
  295
  271
  247
  223
  199
  176
  154
  125
  107
  90
  75
  61
  49
  38
  30
  22
  17
  12
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0
  81.0

Cogeco Communications Inc. operates as a communications corporation in North America. The company operates in three segments: Canadian Broadband Services, American Broadband Services and Business Information and Communications Technology Services. It offers video services and programming, such as basic services, pay and discretionary services, On-demand services, high definition television, and advanced video services; Internet services; and telephony services to residential customers. The company also provides a range of broadband Internet, telephony services and other advanced network connectivity services, such as session initiation protocol, primary rate interface, trunk solutions, hosted private branch exchange solutions, and business and software efficiency services for business customers. In addition, it offers colocation, network connectivity, hosting, cloud services, and a portfolio of managed services to small, medium and large enterprises operating in online retail, financial services, technology, public sector, education, health care, business services, manufacturing, media, and online gaming markets in Canada, the United States, Europe, and internationally. As of August 31, 2016, it offered video service to 739,323 customers, Internet service to 733,701 customers, and telephony service to 440,993 customers in Canada; and video service to 243,632 customers, Internet service to 253,664 customers, and telephony service to 96,437 customers. The company was formerly known as Cogeco Cable Inc. and changed its name to Cogeco Communications Inc. in January 2016. Cogeco Communications Inc. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V (CCA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.6
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 205.7%
Total Debt to Equity 210.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity -12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Operating Margin 0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin -8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate -58.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.9%
Payout Ratio -40.5%

CCA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for CCA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCA are equal to 141.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCA is equal to -12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1380 million for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.831 million for Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cogeco Communications Inc. Subordinate V at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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