Intrinsic value of Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co - CEU

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$6.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$6.45

 
Intrinsic value

$0.28

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -24.27
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.26
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  568
  647
  731
  820
  915
  1,014
  1,118
  1,226
  1,340
  1,458
  1,582
  1,710
  1,843
  1,981
  2,125
  2,275
  2,430
  2,592
  2,760
  2,935
  3,117
  3,306
  3,504
  3,710
  3,925
  4,149
  4,383
  4,627
  4,882
  5,149
  5,428
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  769
  866
  968
  1,076
  1,190
  1,309
  1,434
  1,564
  1,700
  1,841
  1,960
  2,113
  2,272
  2,437
  2,608
  2,787
  2,972
  3,165
  3,365
  3,574
  3,791
  4,018
  4,254
  4,500
  4,757
  5,025
  5,305
  5,598
  5,904
  6,224
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  600
  769
  866
  968
  1,076
  1,190
  1,309
  1,434
  1,564
  1,700
  1,841
  1,960
  2,113
  2,272
  2,437
  2,608
  2,787
  2,972
  3,165
  3,365
  3,574
  3,791
  4,018
  4,254
  4,500
  4,757
  5,025
  5,305
  5,598
  5,904
  6,224
Operating income, $m
  -32
  -122
  -135
  -148
  -162
  -176
  -191
  -207
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -251
  -270
  -290
  -312
  -333
  -356
  -380
  -405
  -430
  -457
  -485
  -514
  -544
  -575
  -608
  -642
  -678
  -716
  -755
  -796
EBITDA, $m
  29
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -121
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -165
  -177
  -189
  -202
  -216
  -229
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -291
  -308
  -326
  -345
  -364
  -385
  -406
  -428
  -451
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
  246
  259
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -145
  -161
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -237
  -258
  -280
  -304
  -328
  -325
  -352
  -379
  -407
  -436
  -467
  -499
  -532
  -566
  -602
  -639
  -678
  -718
  -760
  -804
  -850
  -898
  -948
  -1,000
  -1,055
Tax expense, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -65
  -145
  -161
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -237
  -258
  -280
  -304
  -328
  -325
  -352
  -379
  -407
  -436
  -467
  -499
  -532
  -566
  -602
  -639
  -678
  -718
  -760
  -804
  -850
  -898
  -948
  -1,000
  -1,055

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  979
  1,100
  1,243
  1,395
  1,555
  1,724
  1,901
  2,086
  2,279
  2,480
  2,690
  2,908
  3,134
  3,370
  3,615
  3,869
  4,133
  4,408
  4,694
  4,991
  5,301
  5,623
  5,959
  6,309
  6,674
  7,056
  7,453
  7,869
  8,303
  8,757
  9,232
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  966
  1,100
  1,243
  1,395
  1,555
  1,724
  1,901
  2,086
  2,279
  2,480
  2,690
  2,908
  3,134
  3,370
  3,615
  3,869
  4,133
  4,408
  4,694
  4,991
  5,301
  5,623
  5,959
  6,309
  6,674
  7,056
  7,453
  7,869
  8,303
  8,757
  9,232
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
Average production assets, $m
  368
  419
  473
  531
  592
  656
  723
  794
  867
  944
  1,023
  1,106
  1,192
  1,282
  1,375
  1,472
  1,572
  1,677
  1,786
  1,899
  2,017
  2,139
  2,267
  2,400
  2,539
  2,684
  2,836
  2,994
  3,159
  3,331
  3,512
Working capital, $m
  222
  246
  278
  312
  348
  385
  425
  466
  509
  554
  601
  650
  700
  753
  808
  864
  924
  985
  1,049
  1,115
  1,184
  1,256
  1,331
  1,410
  1,491
  1,577
  1,665
  1,758
  1,855
  1,957
  2,063
Total debt, $m
  313
  362
  421
  485
  552
  622
  696
  773
  853
  937
  1,025
  1,116
  1,210
  1,308
  1,410
  1,516
  1,627
  1,741
  1,860
  1,984
  2,113
  2,248
  2,388
  2,534
  2,686
  2,845
  3,011
  3,184
  3,365
  3,555
  3,753
Total liabilities, $m
  410
  459
  518
  582
  649
  719
  793
  870
  950
  1,034
  1,122
  1,213
  1,307
  1,405
  1,507
  1,613
  1,724
  1,838
  1,957
  2,081
  2,210
  2,345
  2,485
  2,631
  2,783
  2,942
  3,108
  3,281
  3,462
  3,652
  3,850
Total equity, $m
  569
  641
  725
  813
  907
  1,005
  1,108
  1,216
  1,329
  1,446
  1,568
  1,695
  1,827
  1,965
  2,107
  2,256
  2,410
  2,570
  2,736
  2,910
  3,090
  3,278
  3,474
  3,678
  3,891
  4,113
  4,345
  4,588
  4,841
  5,105
  5,382
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  979
  1,100
  1,243
  1,395
  1,556
  1,724
  1,901
  2,086
  2,279
  2,480
  2,690
  2,908
  3,134
  3,370
  3,614
  3,869
  4,134
  4,408
  4,693
  4,991
  5,300
  5,623
  5,959
  6,309
  6,674
  7,055
  7,453
  7,869
  8,303
  8,757
  9,232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.576
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -65
  -145
  -161
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -237
  -258
  -280
  -304
  -328
  -325
  -352
  -379
  -407
  -436
  -467
  -499
  -532
  -566
  -602
  -639
  -678
  -718
  -760
  -804
  -850
  -898
  -948
  -1,000
  -1,055
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  344
Funds from operations, $m
  94
  -76
  -87
  -99
  -111
  -125
  -138
  -153
  -168
  -184
  -200
  -217
  -235
  -253
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -334
  -357
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -483
  -511
  -541
  -572
  -605
  -638
  -674
  -711
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  -106
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -178
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -247
  -266
  -285
  -306
  -327
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -420
  -446
  -473
  -501
  -531
  -561
  -593
  -626
  -661
  -697
  -735
  -775
  -817
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -293
  -310
  -327
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -106
  -87
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -162
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -414
  -436
  -458
  -483
  -508
Free cash flow, $m
  -49
  -193
  -215
  -237
  -260
  -284
  -309
  -335
  -362
  -390
  -419
  -449
  -480
  -512
  -546
  -580
  -617
  -654
  -694
  -734
  -777
  -822
  -868
  -917
  -967
  -1,020
  -1,076
  -1,133
  -1,194
  -1,258
  -1,324
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  90
  209
  238
  262
  287
  312
  339
  366
  394
  424
  454
  485
  518
  551
  586
  623
  661
  700
  741
  784
  829
  875
  924
  975
  1,028
  1,083
  1,142
  1,202
  1,266
  1,333
  1,403
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  80
  265
  298
  325
  354
  382
  413
  443
  475
  508
  541
  576
  612
  649
  688
  729
  771
  815
  860
  908
  958
  1,009
  1,064
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
  1,308
  1,375
  1,447
  1,522
  1,601
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  -137
  -155
  -174
  -193
  -214
  -236
  -258
  -282
  -306
  -332
  -358
  -385
  -414
  -444
  -474
  -506
  -540
  -574
  -610
  -648
  -687
  -728
  -771
  -815
  -861
  -910
  -960
  -1,013
  -1,068
  -1,126
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.9
  79.0
  70.4
  62.9
  56.4
  50.6
  45.5
  41.1
  37.1
  33.5
  30.4
  27.5
  25.0
  22.7
  20.7
  18.8
  17.1
  15.6
  14.2
  13.0
  11.9
  10.8
  9.9
  9.0
  8.3
  7.6
  6.9
  6.3
  5.8
  5.3

Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides consumable chemical solutions throughout the life-cycle of the oilfield. The company provides solutions at the drill-bit, at the point of completion and stimulation, at the wellhead and pump-jack, and through to the pipeline and midstream market. Its solutions include corrosion inhibitors, demulsifiers, H2S scavengers, paraffin control products, surfactants, scale inhibitors, biocides, and other specialty products. The company also designs and implements drilling fluid systems and completion solutions for oil and gas producers; and designs and manufactures production specialty chemicals for use in the oil and natural gas industry, and other industrial applications, as well as offers fracture stimulation and production chemicals. In addition, it provides environmental consulting and drilling fluids waste disposal services; and trucks and trailers to transport and handle oilfield produced fluids to operators. Further, the company operates a captive insurance company. It serves oil and natural gas industry, including independent junior and intermediate oil and natural gas exploration and production entities, multinational producers and joint ventures, as well as pipeline and mid-stream markets in western Canada and the United States. Canadian Energy Services & Technology Corp. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co (CEU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -26
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 89
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 53.8%
Total Debt to Equity 55%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Total Capital -7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Return On Equity -11.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
EBITDA Margin 4.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin -5.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Net Profit Margin -11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Effective Tax Rate -10.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Payout Ratio -21.5%

CEU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $568 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for CEU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEU are equal to 64.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEU is equal to 38%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $569 million for Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 261.773 million for Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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Stock chart of CEU Financial statements of CEU
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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