Intrinsic value of Canfor Corporation - CFP

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$19.18

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$19.18

 
Intrinsic value

$55.51

 
Up/down potential

+189%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CFP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  4,235
  4,464
  4,703
  4,953
  5,215
  5,490
  5,777
  6,079
  6,394
  6,725
  7,071
  7,435
  7,816
  8,216
  8,635
  9,074
  9,536
  10,019
  10,527
  11,060
  11,619
  12,205
  12,821
  13,467
  14,145
  14,857
  15,604
  16,388
  17,211
  18,076
  18,983
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,128
  2,241
  2,359
  2,483
  2,612
  2,748
  2,890
  3,039
  3,195
  3,359
  3,510
  3,690
  3,878
  4,076
  4,284
  4,501
  4,730
  4,969
  5,221
  5,485
  5,762
  6,052
  6,357
  6,677
  7,013
  7,366
  7,736
  8,125
  8,533
  8,961
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2,007
  2,057
  2,109
  2,161
  2,215
  2,271
  2,327
  2,386
  2,445
  2,506
  2,569
  2,633
  2,699
  2,767
  2,836
  2,907
  2,979
  3,054
  3,130
  3,208
  3,289
  3,371
  3,455
  3,541
  3,630
  3,721
  3,814
  3,909
  4,007
  4,107
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,932
  4,135
  4,298
  4,468
  4,644
  4,827
  5,019
  5,217
  5,425
  5,640
  5,865
  6,079
  6,323
  6,577
  6,843
  7,120
  7,408
  7,709
  8,023
  8,351
  8,693
  9,051
  9,423
  9,812
  10,218
  10,643
  11,087
  11,550
  12,034
  12,540
  13,068
Operating income, $m
  303
  329
  405
  486
  571
  662
  758
  861
  969
  1,084
  1,206
  1,356
  1,493
  1,638
  1,792
  1,955
  2,127
  2,310
  2,504
  2,709
  2,925
  3,155
  3,398
  3,655
  3,926
  4,213
  4,517
  4,838
  5,177
  5,536
  5,915
EBITDA, $m
  545
  579
  668
  761
  860
  965
  1,076
  1,194
  1,319
  1,451
  1,590
  1,738
  1,895
  2,061
  2,236
  2,421
  2,618
  2,825
  3,045
  3,277
  3,523
  3,782
  4,057
  4,347
  4,653
  4,977
  5,319
  5,681
  6,062
  6,465
  6,891
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  78
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  208
  221
  234
  249
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  311
  383
  460
  541
  628
  720
  817
  920
  1,030
  1,146
  1,291
  1,422
  1,560
  1,708
  1,864
  2,029
  2,204
  2,389
  2,586
  2,794
  3,014
  3,247
  3,493
  3,754
  4,030
  4,322
  4,630
  4,957
  5,301
  5,666
Tax expense, $m
  64
  84
  103
  124
  146
  170
  194
  221
  249
  278
  310
  349
  384
  421
  461
  503
  548
  595
  645
  698
  754
  814
  877
  943
  1,014
  1,088
  1,167
  1,250
  1,338
  1,431
  1,530
Net income, $m
  151
  227
  280
  336
  395
  458
  525
  596
  672
  752
  837
  942
  1,038
  1,139
  1,247
  1,360
  1,481
  1,609
  1,744
  1,888
  2,039
  2,200
  2,370
  2,550
  2,741
  2,942
  3,155
  3,380
  3,618
  3,870
  4,136

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,277
  3,289
  3,466
  3,650
  3,843
  4,046
  4,257
  4,479
  4,712
  4,956
  5,211
  5,479
  5,760
  6,054
  6,363
  6,687
  7,027
  7,383
  7,758
  8,150
  8,562
  8,994
  9,448
  9,924
  10,424
  10,948
  11,499
  12,077
  12,683
  13,320
  13,989
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,120
  3,289
  3,466
  3,650
  3,843
  4,046
  4,257
  4,479
  4,712
  4,956
  5,211
  5,479
  5,760
  6,054
  6,363
  6,687
  7,027
  7,383
  7,758
  8,150
  8,562
  8,994
  9,448
  9,924
  10,424
  10,948
  11,499
  12,077
  12,683
  13,320
  13,989
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
Average production assets, $m
  2,005
  2,111
  2,224
  2,343
  2,467
  2,597
  2,733
  2,875
  3,024
  3,181
  3,345
  3,517
  3,697
  3,886
  4,084
  4,292
  4,510
  4,739
  4,979
  5,231
  5,496
  5,773
  6,064
  6,370
  6,691
  7,027
  7,381
  7,752
  8,141
  8,550
  8,979
Working capital, $m
  485
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  511
  537
  565
  594
  625
  657
  690
  725
  762
  801
  842
  884
  929
  976
  1,025
  1,077
  1,131
  1,188
  1,248
  1,311
  1,377
  1,446
  1,518
  1,595
Total debt, $m
  476
  545
  645
  749
  858
  973
  1,093
  1,218
  1,350
  1,488
  1,632
  1,784
  1,943
  2,110
  2,285
  2,468
  2,660
  2,862
  3,074
  3,296
  3,529
  3,774
  4,031
  4,300
  4,583
  4,880
  5,191
  5,518
  5,862
  6,222
  6,601
Total liabilities, $m
  1,793
  1,862
  1,962
  2,066
  2,175
  2,290
  2,410
  2,535
  2,667
  2,805
  2,949
  3,101
  3,260
  3,427
  3,602
  3,785
  3,977
  4,179
  4,391
  4,613
  4,846
  5,091
  5,348
  5,617
  5,900
  6,197
  6,508
  6,835
  7,179
  7,539
  7,918
Total equity, $m
  1,484
  1,428
  1,504
  1,584
  1,668
  1,756
  1,848
  1,944
  2,045
  2,151
  2,262
  2,378
  2,500
  2,628
  2,762
  2,902
  3,050
  3,204
  3,367
  3,537
  3,716
  3,904
  4,100
  4,307
  4,524
  4,752
  4,991
  5,241
  5,505
  5,781
  6,071
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,277
  3,290
  3,466
  3,650
  3,843
  4,046
  4,258
  4,479
  4,712
  4,956
  5,211
  5,479
  5,760
  6,055
  6,364
  6,687
  7,027
  7,383
  7,758
  8,150
  8,562
  8,995
  9,448
  9,924
  10,424
  10,949
  11,499
  12,076
  12,684
  13,320
  13,989
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.321
  0.380
  0.430
  0.470
  0.510
  0.550
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  227
  280
  336
  395
  458
  525
  596
  672
  752
  837
  942
  1,038
  1,139
  1,247
  1,360
  1,481
  1,609
  1,744
  1,888
  2,039
  2,200
  2,370
  2,550
  2,741
  2,942
  3,155
  3,380
  3,618
  3,870
  4,136
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  242
  250
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  350
  367
  384
  382
  402
  422
  444
  467
  490
  515
  541
  569
  597
  628
  659
  692
  727
  764
  802
  843
  885
  929
  976
Funds from operations, $m
  622
  477
  542
  611
  684
  761
  843
  930
  1,022
  1,119
  1,221
  1,325
  1,440
  1,562
  1,690
  1,827
  1,971
  2,124
  2,285
  2,456
  2,637
  2,828
  3,029
  3,243
  3,468
  3,706
  3,957
  4,223
  4,503
  4,799
  5,112
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  584
  477
  522
  590
  662
  738
  819
  905
  995
  1,091
  1,192
  1,294
  1,408
  1,528
  1,655
  1,790
  1,933
  2,083
  2,243
  2,411
  2,590
  2,778
  2,978
  3,188
  3,411
  3,646
  3,894
  4,157
  4,434
  4,727
  5,036
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -364
  -382
  -402
  -422
  -444
  -467
  -490
  -515
  -541
  -569
  -597
  -628
  -659
  -692
  -727
  -764
  -802
  -843
  -885
  -929
New CAPEX, $m
  -234
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -371
  -389
  -409
  -429
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -318
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -398
  -418
  -439
  -462
  -485
  -510
  -536
  -562
  -591
  -620
  -652
  -685
  -719
  -755
  -793
  -833
  -874
  -919
  -965
  -1,013
  -1,064
  -1,117
  -1,173
  -1,232
  -1,294
  -1,358
Free cash flow, $m
  266
  152
  180
  230
  284
  340
  401
  465
  533
  606
  683
  759
  845
  937
  1,035
  1,138
  1,248
  1,364
  1,488
  1,618
  1,757
  1,903
  2,059
  2,223
  2,398
  2,582
  2,777
  2,984
  3,202
  3,433
  3,677
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -130
  97
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -205
  97
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  59
  249
  279
  334
  393
  455
  521
  591
  665
  744
  827
  910
  1,004
  1,104
  1,209
  1,321
  1,440
  1,566
  1,699
  1,840
  1,990
  2,148
  2,316
  2,493
  2,681
  2,879
  3,089
  3,311
  3,545
  3,794
  4,056
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -153
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  129
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  305
  203
  254
  309
  367
  429
  494
  564
  638
  716
  794
  882
  976
  1,075
  1,181
  1,293
  1,411
  1,537
  1,670
  1,811
  1,961
  2,119
  2,286
  2,464
  2,651
  2,850
  3,060
  3,282
  3,517
  3,766
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  292
  186
  221
  254
  285
  311
  334
  352
  366
  376
  377
  376
  371
  361
  347
  328
  307
  283
  257
  230
  203
  176
  150
  125
  103
  83
  66
  51
  38
  28
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Canfor Corporation operates as an integrated forest products company in Canada, Asia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Lumber, and Pulp and Paper segments. The company manufactures and sells lumber, engineered wood products, wood chips, wood pellets, and logs, as well as generates green energy. It also produces and sells pulp and paper products, including northern bleached softwood kraft and bleached chemi-thermo mechanical pulp; and purchases and sells residual fiber products. Canfor Corporation was founded in 1938 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Canfor Corporation (CFP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.2%
Total Debt to Equity 32.1%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 7.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 23.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CFP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CFP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4235 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Canfor Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Canfor Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CFP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CFP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Canfor Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Canfor Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CFP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1958 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CFP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Canfor Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Canfor Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CFP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CFP are equal to 47.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Canfor Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CFP is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1484 million for Canfor Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.537 million for Canfor Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Canfor Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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Stock chart of CFP Financial statements of CFP
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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