Intrinsic value of Constellation Software Inc. - CSU

Previous Close

$696.57

  Intrinsic Value

$692.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-1%

  Value-price divergence*

+428%

Previous close

$696.57

 
Intrinsic value

$692.46

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+428%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.58
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  2,871
  3,273
  3,702
  4,157
  4,637
  5,143
  5,673
  6,228
  6,808
  7,412
  8,041
  8,695
  9,376
  10,083
  10,818
  11,581
  12,375
  13,200
  14,058
  14,951
  15,880
  16,848
  17,857
  18,908
  20,004
  21,148
  22,342
  23,589
  24,891
  26,253
  27,677
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,424
  2,738
  3,071
  3,422
  3,792
  4,180
  4,586
  5,009
  5,451
  5,911
  6,359
  6,857
  7,374
  7,911
  8,470
  9,050
  9,654
  10,281
  10,934
  11,614
  12,322
  13,059
  13,828
  14,630
  15,466
  16,339
  17,251
  18,204
  19,200
  20,242
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  355
  363
  373
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  514
  526
  539
  553
  567
  581
  596
  610
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,413
  2,722
  3,044
  3,384
  3,743
  4,121
  4,517
  4,932
  5,364
  5,814
  6,284
  6,741
  7,248
  7,775
  8,322
  8,891
  9,482
  10,097
  10,735
  11,399
  12,091
  12,811
  13,560
  14,342
  15,156
  16,005
  16,892
  17,818
  18,785
  19,796
  20,852
Operating income, $m
  459
  550
  658
  773
  894
  1,022
  1,156
  1,297
  1,444
  1,597
  1,757
  1,954
  2,128
  2,308
  2,495
  2,690
  2,893
  3,104
  3,323
  3,552
  3,790
  4,038
  4,296
  4,566
  4,848
  5,142
  5,449
  5,770
  6,106
  6,458
  6,825
EBITDA, $m
  746
  826
  966
  1,115
  1,272
  1,438
  1,612
  1,795
  1,985
  2,184
  2,391
  2,606
  2,831
  3,064
  3,306
  3,559
  3,821
  4,094
  4,377
  4,673
  4,981
  5,301
  5,636
  5,984
  6,348
  6,728
  7,125
  7,540
  7,973
  8,427
  8,901
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  30
  43
  61
  80
  100
  121
  144
  167
  191
  217
  243
  271
  299
  329
  360
  392
  425
  460
  496
  533
  573
  613
  656
  700
  746
  794
  844
  896
  951
  1,008
Earnings before tax, $m
  387
  521
  615
  712
  814
  922
  1,035
  1,153
  1,277
  1,406
  1,541
  1,711
  1,857
  2,009
  2,166
  2,330
  2,501
  2,678
  2,863
  3,056
  3,256
  3,465
  3,683
  3,911
  4,148
  4,396
  4,655
  4,926
  5,210
  5,506
  5,817
Tax expense, $m
  108
  141
  166
  192
  220
  249
  279
  311
  345
  380
  416
  462
  501
  542
  585
  629
  675
  723
  773
  825
  879
  936
  994
  1,056
  1,120
  1,187
  1,257
  1,330
  1,407
  1,487
  1,571
Net income, $m
  279
  380
  449
  520
  594
  673
  755
  842
  932
  1,026
  1,125
  1,249
  1,356
  1,466
  1,581
  1,701
  1,826
  1,955
  2,090
  2,231
  2,377
  2,530
  2,689
  2,855
  3,028
  3,209
  3,398
  3,596
  3,803
  4,020
  4,246

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  483
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,545
  2,351
  2,659
  2,986
  3,331
  3,695
  4,076
  4,474
  4,891
  5,325
  5,777
  6,247
  6,735
  7,243
  7,771
  8,320
  8,890
  9,483
  10,099
  10,741
  11,408
  12,104
  12,828
  13,583
  14,371
  15,192
  16,050
  16,946
  17,882
  18,860
  19,883
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,062
  2,351
  2,659
  2,986
  3,331
  3,695
  4,076
  4,474
  4,891
  5,325
  5,777
  6,247
  6,735
  7,243
  7,771
  8,320
  8,890
  9,483
  10,099
  10,741
  11,408
  12,104
  12,828
  13,583
  14,371
  15,192
  16,050
  16,946
  17,882
  18,860
  19,883
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
Average production assets, $m
  1,076
  1,227
  1,388
  1,559
  1,739
  1,929
  2,127
  2,336
  2,553
  2,780
  3,015
  3,261
  3,516
  3,781
  4,057
  4,343
  4,641
  4,950
  5,272
  5,607
  5,955
  6,318
  6,696
  7,090
  7,501
  7,930
  8,378
  8,846
  9,334
  9,845
  10,379
Working capital, $m
  -135
  -694
  -785
  -881
  -983
  -1,090
  -1,203
  -1,320
  -1,443
  -1,571
  -1,705
  -1,843
  -1,988
  -2,138
  -2,293
  -2,455
  -2,623
  -2,798
  -2,980
  -3,170
  -3,367
  -3,572
  -3,786
  -4,008
  -4,241
  -4,483
  -4,736
  -5,001
  -5,277
  -5,566
  -5,868
Total debt, $m
  468
  657
  934
  1,228
  1,539
  1,866
  2,209
  2,568
  2,943
  3,333
  3,740
  4,163
  4,603
  5,060
  5,535
  6,029
  6,542
  7,076
  7,630
  8,208
  8,809
  9,434
  10,086
  10,766
  11,474
  12,214
  12,986
  13,792
  14,635
  15,515
  16,436
Total liabilities, $m
  1,927
  2,116
  2,393
  2,687
  2,998
  3,325
  3,668
  4,027
  4,402
  4,792
  5,199
  5,622
  6,062
  6,519
  6,994
  7,488
  8,001
  8,535
  9,089
  9,667
  10,268
  10,893
  11,545
  12,225
  12,933
  13,673
  14,445
  15,251
  16,094
  16,974
  17,895
Total equity, $m
  618
  235
  266
  299
  333
  369
  408
  447
  489
  532
  578
  625
  674
  724
  777
  832
  889
  948
  1,010
  1,074
  1,141
  1,210
  1,283
  1,358
  1,437
  1,519
  1,605
  1,695
  1,788
  1,886
  1,988
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,545
  2,351
  2,659
  2,986
  3,331
  3,694
  4,076
  4,474
  4,891
  5,324
  5,777
  6,247
  6,736
  7,243
  7,771
  8,320
  8,890
  9,483
  10,099
  10,741
  11,409
  12,103
  12,828
  13,583
  14,370
  15,192
  16,050
  16,946
  17,882
  18,860
  19,883
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.757
  2.790
  3.510
  4.110
  4.620
  5.050
  5.420
  5.740
  6.020
  6.260
  6.470
  6.660
  6.830
  6.990
  7.120
  7.250
  7.360
  7.460
  7.560
  7.640
  7.720
  7.790
  7.860
  7.930
  7.980
  8.040
  8.090
  8.140
  8.180
  8.230
  8.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.070
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  279
  380
  449
  520
  594
  673
  755
  842
  932
  1,026
  1,125
  1,249
  1,356
  1,466
  1,581
  1,701
  1,826
  1,955
  2,090
  2,231
  2,377
  2,530
  2,689
  2,855
  3,028
  3,209
  3,398
  3,596
  3,803
  4,020
  4,246
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  287
  276
  308
  342
  378
  416
  456
  498
  541
  587
  634
  652
  703
  756
  811
  869
  928
  990
  1,054
  1,121
  1,191
  1,264
  1,339
  1,418
  1,500
  1,586
  1,676
  1,769
  1,867
  1,969
  2,076
Funds from operations, $m
  580
  656
  758
  862
  973
  1,089
  1,212
  1,340
  1,473
  1,613
  1,758
  1,901
  2,059
  2,222
  2,393
  2,570
  2,754
  2,945
  3,144
  3,352
  3,568
  3,793
  4,028
  4,273
  4,528
  4,795
  5,074
  5,365
  5,670
  5,989
  6,322
Change in working capital, $m
  -83
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -289
  -302
Cash from operations, $m
  663
  741
  848
  959
  1,075
  1,196
  1,324
  1,457
  1,596
  1,741
  1,892
  2,040
  2,203
  2,372
  2,548
  2,732
  2,922
  3,120
  3,326
  3,541
  3,765
  3,998
  4,242
  4,496
  4,761
  5,038
  5,327
  5,630
  5,946
  6,277
  6,624
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -215
  -245
  -278
  -312
  -348
  -386
  -425
  -467
  -511
  -556
  -603
  -652
  -703
  -756
  -811
  -869
  -928
  -990
  -1,054
  -1,121
  -1,191
  -1,264
  -1,339
  -1,418
  -1,500
  -1,586
  -1,676
  -1,769
  -1,867
  -1,969
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -286
  -298
  -309
  -322
  -335
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -534
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -263
  -367
  -406
  -449
  -492
  -538
  -585
  -633
  -684
  -738
  -792
  -848
  -907
  -968
  -1,032
  -1,097
  -1,167
  -1,237
  -1,312
  -1,389
  -1,469
  -1,554
  -1,642
  -1,733
  -1,829
  -1,929
  -2,034
  -2,144
  -2,258
  -2,378
  -2,503
Free cash flow, $m
  400
  374
  442
  510
  583
  659
  739
  824
  912
  1,004
  1,100
  1,192
  1,296
  1,404
  1,517
  1,634
  1,756
  1,883
  2,015
  2,152
  2,295
  2,444
  2,600
  2,762
  2,932
  3,109
  3,293
  3,487
  3,689
  3,900
  4,121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  199
  277
  294
  311
  327
  343
  359
  375
  391
  407
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  555
  577
  601
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  772
  806
  842
  880
  921
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -44
  199
  277
  294
  311
  327
  343
  359
  375
  391
  407
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  555
  577
  601
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  772
  806
  842
  880
  921
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  351
  574
  719
  804
  893
  986
  1,082
  1,182
  1,286
  1,394
  1,507
  1,615
  1,736
  1,861
  1,992
  2,128
  2,269
  2,416
  2,569
  2,729
  2,896
  3,070
  3,252
  3,442
  3,640
  3,848
  4,065
  4,293
  4,531
  4,780
  5,042
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -90
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  473
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  956
  689
  772
  859
  950
  1,044
  1,143
  1,245
  1,351
  1,461
  1,568
  1,687
  1,810
  1,939
  2,073
  2,212
  2,357
  2,508
  2,665
  2,829
  3,001
  3,179
  3,366
  3,562
  3,766
  3,980
  4,203
  4,437
  4,682
  4,939
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  917
  630
  672
  707
  736
  758
  772
  778
  776
  766
  744
  720
  688
  651
  609
  562
  513
  462
  410
  360
  310
  264
  221
  181
  146
  116
  90
  69
  51
  37
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Constellation Software Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides software and services to various industries in the public and private sector markets primarily in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company operates through two segments, Public Sector and Private Sector. It acquires, manages, and builds vertical market software businesses that develop mission critical software solutions; and offers related professional services and support. The company provides software solutions primarily to government and government-related customers, and commercial customers. Constellation Software Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 52.9
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 23.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 48
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 74.1%
Total Debt to Equity 75.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 27.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Return On Equity 52%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.5%
EBITDA Margin 24.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Operating Margin 16%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 9.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 41.2%

CSU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2871 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Constellation Software Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Constellation Software Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Constellation Software Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Constellation Software Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $291 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Constellation Software Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Constellation Software Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSU are equal to 37.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Constellation Software Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSU is equal to -21.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $618 million for Constellation Software Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.365 million for Constellation Software Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Constellation Software Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.9 billion.

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Stock chart of CSU Financial statements of CSU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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