Intrinsic value of Constellation Software Inc. - CSU

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$637.24

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$637.24

 
Intrinsic value

$535.93

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CSU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.58
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  2,871
  3,167
  3,476
  3,799
  4,136
  4,486
  4,851
  5,230
  5,625
  6,034
  6,460
  6,902
  7,362
  7,840
  8,338
  8,856
  9,395
  9,957
  10,543
  11,154
  11,792
  12,457
  13,153
  13,879
  14,638
  15,432
  16,262
  17,131
  18,040
  18,992
  19,989
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,347
  2,573
  2,809
  3,055
  3,312
  3,579
  3,856
  4,144
  4,444
  4,755
  5,048
  5,384
  5,734
  6,098
  6,477
  6,871
  7,282
  7,711
  8,158
  8,624
  9,111
  9,619
  10,150
  10,705
  11,286
  11,893
  12,528
  13,193
  13,890
  14,619
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  355
  363
  373
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  514
  526
  539
  553
  567
  581
  596
  610
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,413
  2,645
  2,879
  3,122
  3,376
  3,641
  3,916
  4,202
  4,499
  4,807
  5,128
  5,430
  5,775
  6,135
  6,509
  6,898
  7,303
  7,725
  8,165
  8,623
  9,101
  9,600
  10,120
  10,664
  11,231
  11,825
  12,446
  13,095
  13,774
  14,486
  15,229
Operating income, $m
  459
  522
  598
  677
  759
  845
  935
  1,029
  1,126
  1,227
  1,332
  1,472
  1,586
  1,705
  1,829
  1,958
  2,092
  2,232
  2,379
  2,531
  2,691
  2,858
  3,033
  3,215
  3,406
  3,606
  3,816
  4,036
  4,266
  4,507
  4,760
EBITDA, $m
  746
  790
  889
  992
  1,100
  1,213
  1,330
  1,452
  1,578
  1,710
  1,847
  1,990
  2,139
  2,293
  2,454
  2,622
  2,797
  2,979
  3,169
  3,368
  3,576
  3,792
  4,019
  4,256
  4,504
  4,764
  5,036
  5,320
  5,619
  5,931
  6,259
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  30
  38
  51
  65
  79
  94
  109
  125
  142
  159
  177
  195
  215
  235
  256
  277
  300
  324
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  488
  520
  554
  589
  625
  663
  703
Earnings before tax, $m
  387
  492
  559
  625
  695
  767
  842
  920
  1,001
  1,086
  1,174
  1,296
  1,391
  1,491
  1,594
  1,702
  1,815
  1,932
  2,055
  2,183
  2,317
  2,457
  2,604
  2,757
  2,918
  3,086
  3,262
  3,447
  3,641
  3,844
  4,057
Tax expense, $m
  108
  133
  151
  169
  188
  207
  227
  248
  270
  293
  317
  350
  376
  402
  430
  460
  490
  522
  555
  589
  626
  663
  703
  744
  788
  833
  881
  931
  983
  1,038
  1,095
Net income, $m
  279
  359
  408
  457
  507
  560
  614
  671
  731
  792
  857
  946
  1,016
  1,088
  1,164
  1,243
  1,325
  1,411
  1,500
  1,594
  1,692
  1,794
  1,901
  2,013
  2,130
  2,253
  2,381
  2,516
  2,658
  2,806
  2,961

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  483
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,545
  2,275
  2,497
  2,729
  2,971
  3,223
  3,485
  3,757
  4,041
  4,335
  4,641
  4,958
  5,289
  5,632
  5,990
  6,362
  6,749
  7,153
  7,574
  8,013
  8,471
  8,949
  9,449
  9,970
  10,516
  11,086
  11,682
  12,307
  12,960
  13,644
  14,360
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,062
  2,275
  2,497
  2,729
  2,971
  3,223
  3,485
  3,757
  4,041
  4,335
  4,641
  4,958
  5,289
  5,632
  5,990
  6,362
  6,749
  7,153
  7,574
  8,013
  8,471
  8,949
  9,449
  9,970
  10,516
  11,086
  11,682
  12,307
  12,960
  13,644
  14,360
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
  1.392
Average production assets, $m
  1,076
  1,188
  1,304
  1,425
  1,551
  1,682
  1,819
  1,961
  2,109
  2,263
  2,422
  2,588
  2,761
  2,940
  3,127
  3,321
  3,523
  3,734
  3,954
  4,183
  4,422
  4,672
  4,932
  5,205
  5,489
  5,787
  6,098
  6,424
  6,765
  7,122
  7,496
Working capital, $m
  -135
  -671
  -737
  -805
  -877
  -951
  -1,028
  -1,109
  -1,192
  -1,279
  -1,369
  -1,463
  -1,561
  -1,662
  -1,768
  -1,877
  -1,992
  -2,111
  -2,235
  -2,365
  -2,500
  -2,641
  -2,788
  -2,942
  -3,103
  -3,272
  -3,448
  -3,632
  -3,825
  -4,026
  -4,238
Total debt, $m
  468
  588
  788
  997
  1,215
  1,442
  1,678
  1,923
  2,178
  2,442
  2,718
  3,004
  3,301
  3,610
  3,932
  4,267
  4,616
  4,979
  5,358
  5,753
  6,165
  6,595
  7,045
  7,514
  8,005
  8,518
  9,055
  9,617
  10,205
  10,820
  11,465
Total liabilities, $m
  1,927
  2,047
  2,247
  2,456
  2,674
  2,901
  3,137
  3,382
  3,637
  3,901
  4,177
  4,463
  4,760
  5,069
  5,391
  5,726
  6,075
  6,438
  6,817
  7,212
  7,624
  8,054
  8,504
  8,973
  9,464
  9,977
  10,514
  11,076
  11,664
  12,279
  12,924
Total equity, $m
  618
  227
  250
  273
  297
  322
  349
  376
  404
  433
  464
  496
  529
  563
  599
  636
  675
  715
  757
  801
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,231
  1,296
  1,364
  1,436
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,545
  2,274
  2,497
  2,729
  2,971
  3,223
  3,486
  3,758
  4,041
  4,334
  4,641
  4,959
  5,289
  5,632
  5,990
  6,362
  6,750
  7,153
  7,574
  8,013
  8,471
  8,949
  9,449
  9,970
  10,516
  11,086
  11,682
  12,307
  12,960
  13,643
  14,360
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.757
  2.590
  3.160
  3.650
  4.090
  4.470
  4.810
  5.120
  5.390
  5.630
  5.860
  6.060
  6.240
  6.410
  6.560
  6.710
  6.840
  6.960
  7.070
  7.180
  7.280
  7.370
  7.460
  7.540
  7.610
  7.680
  7.750
  7.810
  7.870
  7.930
  7.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.070
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  279
  359
  408
  457
  507
  560
  614
  671
  731
  792
  857
  946
  1,016
  1,088
  1,164
  1,243
  1,325
  1,411
  1,500
  1,594
  1,692
  1,794
  1,901
  2,013
  2,130
  2,253
  2,381
  2,516
  2,658
  2,806
  2,961
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  287
  268
  291
  316
  341
  367
  394
  423
  452
  483
  515
  518
  552
  588
  625
  664
  705
  747
  791
  837
  884
  934
  986
  1,041
  1,098
  1,157
  1,220
  1,285
  1,353
  1,424
  1,499
Funds from operations, $m
  580
  627
  700
  772
  848
  927
  1,009
  1,094
  1,183
  1,276
  1,372
  1,464
  1,568
  1,676
  1,789
  1,907
  2,029
  2,157
  2,291
  2,430
  2,576
  2,728
  2,887
  3,054
  3,228
  3,410
  3,601
  3,801
  4,011
  4,230
  4,460
Change in working capital, $m
  -83
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
Cash from operations, $m
  663
  715
  765
  841
  919
  1,001
  1,086
  1,175
  1,267
  1,362
  1,462
  1,557
  1,665
  1,778
  1,895
  2,017
  2,144
  2,277
  2,415
  2,560
  2,711
  2,869
  3,035
  3,208
  3,389
  3,578
  3,777
  3,985
  4,203
  4,432
  4,672
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -215
  -238
  -261
  -285
  -310
  -336
  -364
  -392
  -422
  -453
  -484
  -518
  -552
  -588
  -625
  -664
  -705
  -747
  -791
  -837
  -884
  -934
  -986
  -1,041
  -1,098
  -1,157
  -1,220
  -1,285
  -1,353
  -1,424
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -263
  -327
  -354
  -382
  -411
  -441
  -473
  -506
  -540
  -576
  -613
  -650
  -690
  -731
  -775
  -819
  -866
  -916
  -967
  -1,020
  -1,076
  -1,134
  -1,195
  -1,258
  -1,326
  -1,396
  -1,468
  -1,546
  -1,626
  -1,710
  -1,798
Free cash flow, $m
  400
  387
  412
  459
  508
  559
  613
  669
  727
  787
  850
  907
  975
  1,046
  1,120
  1,197
  1,277
  1,361
  1,449
  1,540
  1,635
  1,735
  1,840
  1,949
  2,063
  2,183
  2,308
  2,440
  2,578
  2,722
  2,874
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  130
  200
  209
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  470
  491
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -44
  130
  200
  209
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  470
  491
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  351
  518
  612
  668
  726
  786
  849
  914
  981
  1,052
  1,125
  1,193
  1,272
  1,355
  1,442
  1,532
  1,626
  1,725
  1,827
  1,935
  2,048
  2,166
  2,289
  2,418
  2,554
  2,696
  2,845
  3,002
  3,166
  3,338
  3,518
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -82
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  473
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  908
  589
  644
  701
  761
  822
  887
  953
  1,022
  1,094
  1,161
  1,239
  1,321
  1,406
  1,495
  1,587
  1,684
  1,785
  1,891
  2,002
  2,118
  2,239
  2,366
  2,499
  2,639
  2,786
  2,939
  3,100
  3,269
  3,447
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  871
  540
  561
  578
  590
  597
  599
  596
  587
  574
  551
  529
  502
  472
  439
  403
  366
  329
  291
  254
  219
  186
  155
  127
  103
  81
  63
  48
  36
  26
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Constellation Software Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides software and services to various industries in the public and private sector markets primarily in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company operates through two segments, Public Sector and Private Sector. It acquires, manages, and builds vertical market software businesses that develop mission critical software solutions; and offers related professional services and support. The company provides software solutions primarily to government and government-related customers, and commercial customers. Constellation Software Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.4
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 21.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 48
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 74.1%
Total Debt to Equity 75.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 27.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Return On Equity 52%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.5%
EBITDA Margin 24.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Operating Margin 16%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 9.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 41.2%

CSU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CSU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2871 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Constellation Software Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Constellation Software Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CSU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CSU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Constellation Software Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Constellation Software Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CSU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $291 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CSU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Constellation Software Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Constellation Software Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CSU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CSU are equal to 37.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Constellation Software Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CSU is equal to -21.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $618 million for Constellation Software Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.135 million for Constellation Software Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Constellation Software Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.5 billion.


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