Intrinsic value of Detour Gold Corporation - DGC

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$15.55

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.55

 
Intrinsic value

$3.52

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DGC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.82
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.12
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  889
  1,078
  1,290
  1,525
  1,783
  2,063
  2,364
  2,687
  3,031
  3,396
  3,780
  4,184
  4,607
  5,049
  5,511
  5,992
  6,493
  7,013
  7,555
  8,117
  8,702
  9,309
  9,941
  10,597
  11,280
  11,991
  12,731
  13,502
  14,305
  15,142
  16,015
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  223
  267
  316
  369
  427
  489
  556
  627
  703
  782
  866
  954
  1,045
  1,141
  1,240
  1,344
  1,452
  1,564
  1,680
  1,801
  1,927
  2,058
  2,194
  2,335
  2,482
  2,635
  2,795
  2,961
  3,134
  3,315
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  662
  679
  696
  713
  731
  749
  768
  787
  807
  827
  848
  869
  891
  913
  936
  959
  983
  1,008
  1,033
  1,059
  1,085
  1,112
  1,140
  1,168
  1,198
  1,228
  1,258
  1,290
  1,322
  1,355
Total operating expenses, $m
  814
  885
  946
  1,012
  1,082
  1,158
  1,238
  1,324
  1,414
  1,510
  1,609
  1,714
  1,823
  1,936
  2,054
  2,176
  2,303
  2,435
  2,572
  2,713
  2,860
  3,012
  3,170
  3,334
  3,503
  3,680
  3,863
  4,053
  4,251
  4,456
  4,670
Operating income, $m
  76
  193
  345
  514
  701
  905
  1,126
  1,363
  1,617
  1,886
  2,170
  2,470
  2,784
  3,113
  3,457
  3,816
  4,190
  4,579
  4,983
  5,404
  5,842
  6,297
  6,771
  7,264
  7,777
  8,311
  8,868
  9,448
  10,054
  10,685
  11,345
EBITDA, $m
  300
  464
  669
  898
  1,150
  1,424
  1,721
  2,040
  2,380
  2,741
  3,122
  3,523
  3,944
  4,384
  4,844
  5,324
  5,824
  6,344
  6,885
  7,447
  8,032
  8,641
  9,273
  9,931
  10,616
  11,330
  12,073
  12,847
  13,654
  14,497
  15,376
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  18
  25
  33
  42
  51
  62
  73
  85
  98
  112
  127
  142
  158
  175
  192
  210
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  335
  359
  384
  410
  436
  464
  493
  524
  555
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  175
  320
  481
  659
  854
  1,064
  1,290
  1,531
  1,788
  2,058
  2,343
  2,642
  2,956
  3,283
  3,624
  3,980
  4,350
  4,735
  5,135
  5,552
  5,985
  6,436
  6,905
  7,393
  7,902
  8,432
  8,984
  9,560
  10,162
  10,790
Tax expense, $m
  -24
  47
  86
  130
  178
  230
  287
  348
  413
  483
  556
  633
  713
  798
  886
  978
  1,074
  1,174
  1,278
  1,386
  1,499
  1,616
  1,738
  1,864
  1,996
  2,133
  2,277
  2,426
  2,581
  2,744
  2,913
Net income, $m
  -9
  128
  234
  351
  481
  623
  777
  942
  1,118
  1,305
  1,503
  1,711
  1,929
  2,158
  2,396
  2,646
  2,905
  3,175
  3,456
  3,749
  4,053
  4,369
  4,698
  5,040
  5,397
  5,768
  6,155
  6,558
  6,979
  7,418
  7,877

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,202
  3,668
  4,389
  5,188
  6,064
  7,016
  8,042
  9,141
  10,311
  11,550
  12,856
  14,230
  15,669
  17,174
  18,744
  20,381
  22,084
  23,855
  25,696
  27,609
  29,598
  31,664
  33,812
  36,045
  38,368
  40,786
  43,302
  45,923
  48,655
  51,503
  54,473
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,027
  3,668
  4,389
  5,188
  6,064
  7,016
  8,042
  9,141
  10,311
  11,550
  12,856
  14,230
  15,669
  17,174
  18,744
  20,381
  22,084
  23,855
  25,696
  27,609
  29,598
  31,664
  33,812
  36,045
  38,368
  40,786
  43,302
  45,923
  48,655
  51,503
  54,473
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
Average production assets, $m
  2,864
  3,474
  4,158
  4,915
  5,744
  6,646
  7,618
  8,659
  9,767
  10,941
  12,178
  13,480
  14,843
  16,268
  17,756
  19,306
  20,919
  22,597
  24,341
  26,153
  28,037
  29,994
  32,029
  34,145
  36,345
  38,635
  41,019
  43,502
  46,089
  48,787
  51,601
Working capital, $m
  -214
  67
  80
  95
  111
  128
  147
  167
  188
  211
  234
  259
  286
  313
  342
  371
  403
  435
  468
  503
  540
  577
  616
  657
  699
  743
  789
  837
  887
  939
  993
Total debt, $m
  444
  375
  496
  631
  778
  938
  1,110
  1,295
  1,491
  1,699
  1,919
  2,150
  2,391
  2,644
  2,908
  3,183
  3,469
  3,767
  4,076
  4,397
  4,731
  5,079
  5,439
  5,815
  6,205
  6,611
  7,034
  7,474
  7,933
  8,411
  8,911
Total liabilities, $m
  685
  616
  737
  872
  1,019
  1,179
  1,351
  1,536
  1,732
  1,940
  2,160
  2,391
  2,632
  2,885
  3,149
  3,424
  3,710
  4,008
  4,317
  4,638
  4,972
  5,320
  5,680
  6,056
  6,446
  6,852
  7,275
  7,715
  8,174
  8,652
  9,152
Total equity, $m
  2,517
  3,052
  3,652
  4,317
  5,045
  5,837
  6,691
  7,605
  8,578
  9,609
  10,697
  11,839
  13,037
  14,289
  15,595
  16,957
  18,373
  19,847
  21,379
  22,971
  24,625
  26,345
  28,132
  29,990
  31,923
  33,934
  36,028
  38,208
  40,481
  42,850
  45,322
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,202
  3,668
  4,389
  5,189
  6,064
  7,016
  8,042
  9,141
  10,310
  11,549
  12,857
  14,230
  15,669
  17,174
  18,744
  20,381
  22,083
  23,855
  25,696
  27,609
  29,597
  31,665
  33,812
  36,046
  38,369
  40,786
  43,303
  45,923
  48,655
  51,502
  54,474
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.176
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.774
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  128
  234
  351
  481
  623
  777
  942
  1,118
  1,305
  1,503
  1,711
  1,929
  2,158
  2,396
  2,646
  2,905
  3,175
  3,456
  3,749
  4,053
  4,369
  4,698
  5,040
  5,397
  5,768
  6,155
  6,558
  6,979
  7,418
  7,877
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  224
  271
  325
  384
  449
  519
  595
  676
  763
  855
  951
  1,053
  1,160
  1,271
  1,387
  1,508
  1,634
  1,765
  1,902
  2,043
  2,190
  2,343
  2,502
  2,668
  2,839
  3,018
  3,205
  3,399
  3,601
  3,811
  4,031
Funds from operations, $m
  241
  399
  558
  735
  930
  1,142
  1,372
  1,618
  1,881
  2,160
  2,454
  2,764
  3,089
  3,429
  3,784
  4,154
  4,539
  4,941
  5,358
  5,792
  6,243
  6,712
  7,200
  7,708
  8,236
  8,787
  9,360
  9,957
  10,580
  11,230
  11,908
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  266
  340
  545
  721
  914
  1,125
  1,353
  1,598
  1,860
  2,137
  2,430
  2,739
  3,062
  3,401
  3,755
  4,124
  4,508
  4,908
  5,324
  5,757
  6,207
  6,675
  7,161
  7,667
  8,194
  8,743
  9,314
  9,909
  10,530
  11,178
  11,854
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -224
  -271
  -325
  -384
  -449
  -519
  -595
  -676
  -763
  -855
  -951
  -1,053
  -1,160
  -1,271
  -1,387
  -1,508
  -1,634
  -1,765
  -1,902
  -2,043
  -2,190
  -2,343
  -2,502
  -2,668
  -2,839
  -3,018
  -3,205
  -3,399
  -3,601
  -3,811
New CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -610
  -683
  -757
  -830
  -902
  -972
  -1,041
  -1,108
  -1,174
  -1,238
  -1,301
  -1,363
  -1,425
  -1,487
  -1,550
  -1,613
  -1,678
  -1,744
  -1,813
  -1,884
  -1,957
  -2,035
  -2,116
  -2,201
  -2,290
  -2,384
  -2,483
  -2,587
  -2,698
  -2,814
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -834
  -954
  -1,082
  -1,214
  -1,351
  -1,491
  -1,636
  -1,784
  -1,937
  -2,093
  -2,252
  -2,416
  -2,585
  -2,758
  -2,937
  -3,121
  -3,312
  -3,509
  -3,715
  -3,927
  -4,147
  -4,378
  -4,618
  -4,869
  -5,129
  -5,402
  -5,688
  -5,986
  -6,299
  -6,625
Free cash flow, $m
  126
  -495
  -410
  -361
  -300
  -225
  -138
  -38
  75
  200
  338
  486
  646
  816
  997
  1,187
  1,387
  1,596
  1,815
  2,043
  2,280
  2,527
  2,783
  3,049
  3,326
  3,613
  3,912
  4,222
  4,544
  4,879
  5,228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -197
  106
  121
  134
  147
  160
  172
  185
  197
  208
  220
  231
  242
  253
  264
  275
  286
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  375
  390
  406
  423
  440
  459
  478
  499
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  64
  923
  889
  892
  881
  857
  819
  767
  702
  622
  530
  426
  310
  183
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -168
  1,029
  1,010
  1,026
  1,028
  1,017
  991
  952
  899
  830
  750
  657
  552
  436
  310
  275
  286
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  361
  375
  390
  406
  423
  440
  459
  478
  499
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -42
  -388
  -288
  -227
  -153
  -66
  34
  147
  272
  408
  557
  717
  888
  1,069
  1,260
  1,462
  1,673
  1,894
  2,124
  2,364
  2,614
  2,874
  3,144
  3,425
  3,716
  4,019
  4,334
  4,662
  5,003
  5,358
  5,727
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -535
  -600
  -665
  -729
  -792
  -854
  -914
  -973
  -1,031
  -1,087
  -1,143
  -1,198
  -1,252
  -1,306
  -1,361
  -1,417
  -1,474
  -1,532
  -1,592
  -1,654
  -1,719
  -1,787
  -1,858
  -1,933
  -2,011
  -2,094
  -2,181
  -2,273
  -2,369
  -2,471
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  100
  256
  420
  592
  772
  960
  1,155
  1,357
  1,567
  1,784
  2,008
  2,241
  2,481
  2,730
  2,988
  3,256
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  29
  65
  91
  109
  119
  122
  119
  113
  103
  91
  78
  65
  53
  42
  33
  25
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.1
  59.4
  48.7
  41.1
  35.6
  31.6
  28.6
  26.4
  24.8
  23.6
  22.8
  22.2
  22.0
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9
  21.9

Detour Gold Corporation, an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties in Canada. The company’s primary asset is the Detour Lake property located in Northeastern Ontario. Its Detour Lake property consists of a contiguous group of mining claims and leases totaling 625 square kilometers in the District of Cochrane. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Detour Gold Corporation (DGC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -301.6
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 17.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Total Capital -0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Return On Equity -0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
EBITDA Margin 25.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Net Profit Margin -1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.3%
Effective Tax Rate 72.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

DGC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DGC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $889 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Detour Gold Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Detour Gold Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DGC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for DGC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Detour Gold Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Detour Gold Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DGC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $646 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DGC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Detour Gold Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Detour Gold Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DGC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DGC are equal to 322.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Detour Gold Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DGC is equal to 6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2517 million for Detour Gold Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 178.778 million for Detour Gold Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Detour Gold Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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