Intrinsic value of Dollarama Inc. - DOL

Previous Close

$153.64

  Intrinsic Value

$60.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$153.64

 
Intrinsic value

$60.48

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of DOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.81
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  2,963
  3,301
  3,656
  4,028
  4,418
  4,824
  5,248
  5,688
  6,147
  6,624
  7,119
  7,634
  8,169
  8,725
  9,303
  9,904
  10,530
  11,182
  11,860
  12,567
  13,304
  14,073
  14,875
  15,712
  16,587
  17,501
  18,457
  19,456
  20,501
  21,595
  22,739
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,279
  2,517
  2,765
  3,026
  3,297
  3,580
  3,875
  4,182
  4,500
  4,831
  5,103
  5,460
  5,832
  6,218
  6,620
  7,039
  7,474
  7,928
  8,400
  8,893
  9,407
  9,943
  10,503
  11,087
  11,698
  12,337
  13,005
  13,703
  14,435
  15,200
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  278
  285
  292
  299
  307
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  356
  364
  374
  383
  392
  402
  412
  423
  433
  444
  455
  467
  478
  490
  502
  515
  528
  541
  555
  568
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,318
  2,557
  2,802
  3,057
  3,325
  3,604
  3,894
  4,197
  4,512
  4,838
  5,178
  5,459
  5,824
  6,206
  6,601
  7,012
  7,441
  7,886
  8,351
  8,833
  9,337
  9,862
  10,410
  10,981
  11,577
  12,200
  12,852
  13,533
  14,244
  14,990
  15,768
Operating income, $m
  646
  744
  855
  971
  1,093
  1,220
  1,353
  1,491
  1,635
  1,785
  1,941
  2,176
  2,344
  2,519
  2,702
  2,892
  3,089
  3,295
  3,510
  3,734
  3,967
  4,211
  4,466
  4,732
  5,010
  5,300
  5,605
  5,923
  6,256
  6,606
  6,971
EBITDA, $m
  704
  844
  957
  1,077
  1,202
  1,332
  1,469
  1,611
  1,758
  1,912
  2,072
  2,238
  2,411
  2,591
  2,778
  2,973
  3,175
  3,387
  3,607
  3,837
  4,076
  4,326
  4,587
  4,860
  5,146
  5,444
  5,756
  6,083
  6,424
  6,783
  7,158
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  44
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  199
  212
  225
  240
  254
  270
  286
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
Earnings before tax, $m
  612
  700
  807
  916
  1,031
  1,151
  1,276
  1,406
  1,541
  1,682
  1,829
  2,054
  2,213
  2,378
  2,550
  2,729
  2,915
  3,109
  3,311
  3,522
  3,742
  3,971
  4,211
  4,462
  4,724
  4,998
  5,285
  5,585
  5,899
  6,228
  6,573
Tax expense, $m
  166
  189
  218
  247
  278
  311
  344
  380
  416
  454
  494
  555
  598
  642
  688
  737
  787
  839
  894
  951
  1,010
  1,072
  1,137
  1,205
  1,275
  1,349
  1,427
  1,508
  1,593
  1,682
  1,775
Net income, $m
  446
  511
  589
  669
  753
  840
  931
  1,026
  1,125
  1,228
  1,335
  1,500
  1,616
  1,736
  1,861
  1,992
  2,128
  2,269
  2,417
  2,571
  2,731
  2,899
  3,074
  3,257
  3,448
  3,649
  3,858
  4,077
  4,306
  4,547
  4,798

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,863
  2,007
  2,222
  2,449
  2,685
  2,933
  3,190
  3,458
  3,737
  4,027
  4,328
  4,641
  4,966
  5,304
  5,655
  6,021
  6,401
  6,797
  7,210
  7,639
  8,088
  8,555
  9,042
  9,552
  10,083
  10,639
  11,220
  11,827
  12,463
  13,127
  13,823
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,801
  2,007
  2,222
  2,449
  2,685
  2,933
  3,190
  3,458
  3,737
  4,027
  4,328
  4,641
  4,966
  5,304
  5,655
  6,021
  6,401
  6,797
  7,210
  7,639
  8,088
  8,555
  9,042
  9,552
  10,083
  10,639
  11,220
  11,827
  12,463
  13,127
  13,823
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
Average production assets, $m
  523
  584
  647
  713
  782
  854
  929
  1,007
  1,088
  1,172
  1,260
  1,351
  1,446
  1,544
  1,647
  1,753
  1,864
  1,979
  2,099
  2,224
  2,355
  2,491
  2,633
  2,781
  2,936
  3,098
  3,267
  3,444
  3,629
  3,822
  4,025
Working capital, $m
  46
  294
  325
  359
  393
  429
  467
  506
  547
  590
  634
  679
  727
  777
  828
  881
  937
  995
  1,056
  1,118
  1,184
  1,252
  1,324
  1,398
  1,476
  1,558
  1,643
  1,732
  1,825
  1,922
  2,024
Total debt, $m
  1,329
  1,372
  1,566
  1,770
  1,983
  2,205
  2,437
  2,678
  2,929
  3,190
  3,461
  3,743
  4,035
  4,340
  4,656
  4,985
  5,327
  5,684
  6,055
  6,442
  6,845
  7,265
  7,704
  8,162
  8,641
  9,141
  9,664
  10,210
  10,782
  11,381
  12,007
Total liabilities, $m
  1,763
  1,806
  2,000
  2,204
  2,417
  2,639
  2,871
  3,112
  3,363
  3,624
  3,895
  4,177
  4,469
  4,774
  5,090
  5,419
  5,761
  6,118
  6,489
  6,876
  7,279
  7,699
  8,138
  8,596
  9,075
  9,575
  10,098
  10,644
  11,216
  11,815
  12,441
Total equity, $m
  100
  201
  222
  245
  269
  293
  319
  346
  374
  403
  433
  464
  497
  530
  566
  602
  640
  680
  721
  764
  809
  855
  904
  955
  1,008
  1,064
  1,122
  1,183
  1,246
  1,313
  1,382
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,863
  2,007
  2,222
  2,449
  2,686
  2,932
  3,190
  3,458
  3,737
  4,027
  4,328
  4,641
  4,966
  5,304
  5,656
  6,021
  6,401
  6,798
  7,210
  7,640
  8,088
  8,554
  9,042
  9,551
  10,083
  10,639
  11,220
  11,827
  12,462
  13,128
  13,823
Debt-to-equity ratio
  13.290
  6.840
  7.050
  7.230
  7.380
  7.520
  7.640
  7.740
  7.840
  7.920
  8.000
  8.060
  8.130
  8.180
  8.230
  8.280
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.021
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  446
  511
  589
  669
  753
  840
  931
  1,026
  1,125
  1,228
  1,335
  1,500
  1,616
  1,736
  1,861
  1,992
  2,128
  2,269
  2,417
  2,571
  2,731
  2,899
  3,074
  3,257
  3,448
  3,649
  3,858
  4,077
  4,306
  4,547
  4,798
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
Funds from operations, $m
  501
  610
  692
  775
  862
  952
  1,047
  1,146
  1,248
  1,355
  1,466
  1,562
  1,682
  1,808
  1,938
  2,073
  2,214
  2,361
  2,514
  2,674
  2,840
  3,014
  3,196
  3,386
  3,584
  3,792
  4,009
  4,236
  4,474
  4,724
  4,985
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
Cash from operations, $m
  505
  580
  660
  741
  827
  916
  1,009
  1,106
  1,208
  1,313
  1,422
  1,516
  1,635
  1,758
  1,886
  2,020
  2,158
  2,303
  2,454
  2,611
  2,775
  2,946
  3,125
  3,311
  3,507
  3,711
  3,924
  4,147
  4,381
  4,626
  4,883
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -166
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -166
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -380
Free cash flow, $m
  339
  495
  570
  646
  725
  808
  895
  985
  1,080
  1,178
  1,280
  1,367
  1,478
  1,593
  1,712
  1,837
  1,966
  2,101
  2,242
  2,389
  2,541
  2,701
  2,867
  3,041
  3,223
  3,413
  3,612
  3,819
  4,037
  4,265
  4,503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  404
  105
  194
  204
  213
  222
  232
  241
  251
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  598
  626
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -692
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -290
  105
  194
  204
  213
  222
  232
  241
  251
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  547
  572
  598
  626
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  600
  764
  849
  938
  1,030
  1,127
  1,227
  1,331
  1,439
  1,551
  1,649
  1,770
  1,897
  2,029
  2,166
  2,309
  2,458
  2,613
  2,775
  2,945
  3,121
  3,306
  3,499
  3,702
  3,913
  4,134
  4,366
  4,609
  4,863
  5,129
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  367
  -101
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  499
  743
  827
  914
  1,006
  1,101
  1,200
  1,303
  1,410
  1,521
  1,617
  1,738
  1,863
  1,994
  2,129
  2,271
  2,418
  2,572
  2,732
  2,900
  3,075
  3,258
  3,449
  3,648
  3,857
  4,076
  4,305
  4,545
  4,796
  5,060
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  455
  612
  610
  597
  576
  546
  510
  468
  422
  374
  322
  275
  231
  190
  153
  120
  92
  69
  51
  36
  25
  17
  11
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dollarama Inc. is a Canada-based holding company. The Company operates dollar stores. It has approximately 1,030 stores in operation in Canada. Its stores have an average area of approximately 9,942 square feet, and offer a range of consumer products, general merchandise and seasonal items, including private label and nationally branded products. Its merchandise is sold in individual or multiple units. The Company's stores are located in metropolitan areas, mid-sized cities and towns. Its general merchandise includes party supplies, office supplies, arts and craft supplies, greeting cards and stationery, giftware, household wares, kitchenware, glassware, hardware and electronics, toys and apparel. Its consumable products include household consumables, such as paper, plastics, foils and cleaning supplies, basic health and beauty care products, pet food, confectionery, drinks, snacks and other food products. Its seasonal products include Halloween and the winter holidays merchandise.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dollarama Inc. (DOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.6
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 176.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 76.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1050%
Total Debt to Equity 1329%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 25.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Return On Total Capital 31.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Return On Equity 157.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 86%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 23.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin 21.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 27.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Payout Ratio 10.5%

DOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2963 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dollarama Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dollarama Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for DOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dollarama Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dollarama Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $271 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dollarama Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dollarama Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DOL are equal to 17.7%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dollarama Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DOL is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $100 million for Dollarama Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 112.114 million for Dollarama Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dollarama Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.2 billion.

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Financial statements of DOL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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