Intrinsic value of Dollarama Inc. - DOL

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$119.03

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$119.03

 
Intrinsic value

$61.34

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.81
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  2,963
  3,313
  3,681
  4,068
  4,473
  4,896
  5,337
  5,797
  6,276
  6,773
  7,290
  7,828
  8,386
  8,966
  9,570
  10,197
  10,850
  11,529
  12,236
  12,973
  13,740
  14,541
  15,376
  16,248
  17,158
  18,109
  19,103
  20,142
  21,229
  22,366
  23,556
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,287
  2,533
  2,792
  3,063
  3,345
  3,640
  3,948
  4,268
  4,600
  4,946
  5,232
  5,605
  5,993
  6,397
  6,816
  7,252
  7,706
  8,179
  8,671
  9,184
  9,720
  10,278
  10,861
  11,469
  12,105
  12,769
  13,464
  14,190
  14,950
  15,745
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  278
  285
  292
  299
  307
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  356
  364
  374
  383
  392
  402
  412
  423
  433
  444
  455
  467
  478
  490
  502
  515
  528
  541
  555
  568
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,318
  2,565
  2,818
  3,084
  3,362
  3,652
  3,954
  4,270
  4,598
  4,938
  5,293
  5,588
  5,969
  6,367
  6,780
  7,208
  7,654
  8,118
  8,602
  9,104
  9,628
  10,175
  10,745
  11,339
  11,959
  12,607
  13,284
  13,992
  14,731
  15,505
  16,313
Operating income, $m
  646
  748
  863
  984
  1,111
  1,244
  1,383
  1,527
  1,678
  1,835
  1,997
  2,240
  2,416
  2,599
  2,790
  2,988
  3,195
  3,410
  3,634
  3,868
  4,112
  4,366
  4,632
  4,909
  5,199
  5,502
  5,819
  6,151
  6,498
  6,861
  7,242
EBITDA, $m
  704
  848
  966
  1,090
  1,221
  1,357
  1,499
  1,648
  1,802
  1,963
  2,130
  2,304
  2,485
  2,673
  2,868
  3,072
  3,284
  3,505
  3,735
  3,974
  4,224
  4,485
  4,758
  5,042
  5,340
  5,650
  5,976
  6,316
  6,672
  7,045
  7,435
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  44
  48
  55
  63
  70
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  124
  135
  145
  157
  168
  180
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
  332
  351
  371
  391
  413
Earnings before tax, $m
  612
  703
  815
  929
  1,048
  1,174
  1,304
  1,440
  1,582
  1,730
  1,883
  2,115
  2,281
  2,454
  2,634
  2,820
  3,015
  3,218
  3,429
  3,649
  3,879
  4,118
  4,368
  4,630
  4,903
  5,189
  5,487
  5,800
  6,127
  6,470
  6,829
Tax expense, $m
  166
  190
  220
  251
  283
  317
  352
  389
  427
  467
  508
  571
  616
  663
  711
  762
  814
  869
  926
  985
  1,047
  1,112
  1,179
  1,250
  1,324
  1,401
  1,482
  1,566
  1,654
  1,747
  1,844
Net income, $m
  446
  514
  595
  678
  765
  857
  952
  1,051
  1,155
  1,263
  1,375
  1,544
  1,665
  1,791
  1,922
  2,059
  2,201
  2,349
  2,503
  2,664
  2,831
  3,006
  3,189
  3,380
  3,579
  3,788
  4,006
  4,234
  4,473
  4,723
  4,985

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,863
  2,014
  2,238
  2,473
  2,719
  2,976
  3,245
  3,524
  3,815
  4,117
  4,432
  4,758
  5,098
  5,451
  5,817
  6,199
  6,595
  7,008
  7,438
  7,886
  8,353
  8,839
  9,347
  9,877
  10,431
  11,009
  11,613
  12,245
  12,905
  13,596
  14,320
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,801
  2,014
  2,238
  2,473
  2,719
  2,976
  3,245
  3,524
  3,815
  4,117
  4,432
  4,758
  5,098
  5,451
  5,817
  6,199
  6,595
  7,008
  7,438
  7,886
  8,353
  8,839
  9,347
  9,877
  10,431
  11,009
  11,613
  12,245
  12,905
  13,596
  14,320
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
  1.645
Average production assets, $m
  523
  586
  652
  720
  792
  867
  945
  1,026
  1,111
  1,199
  1,290
  1,385
  1,484
  1,587
  1,694
  1,805
  1,920
  2,041
  2,166
  2,296
  2,432
  2,574
  2,722
  2,876
  3,037
  3,205
  3,381
  3,565
  3,758
  3,959
  4,169
Working capital, $m
  46
  295
  328
  362
  398
  436
  475
  516
  559
  603
  649
  697
  746
  798
  852
  908
  966
  1,026
  1,089
  1,155
  1,223
  1,294
  1,368
  1,446
  1,527
  1,612
  1,700
  1,793
  1,889
  1,991
  2,096
Total debt, $m
  1,329
  1,378
  1,580
  1,792
  2,013
  2,245
  2,486
  2,738
  2,999
  3,272
  3,555
  3,849
  4,154
  4,472
  4,802
  5,145
  5,502
  5,873
  6,260
  6,663
  7,084
  7,522
  7,979
  8,455
  8,954
  9,474
  10,018
  10,586
  11,181
  11,803
  12,454
Total liabilities, $m
  1,763
  1,812
  2,014
  2,226
  2,447
  2,679
  2,920
  3,172
  3,433
  3,706
  3,989
  4,283
  4,588
  4,906
  5,236
  5,579
  5,936
  6,307
  6,694
  7,097
  7,518
  7,956
  8,413
  8,889
  9,388
  9,908
  10,452
  11,020
  11,615
  12,237
  12,888
Total equity, $m
  100
  201
  224
  247
  272
  298
  324
  352
  381
  412
  443
  476
  510
  545
  582
  620
  660
  701
  744
  789
  835
  884
  935
  988
  1,043
  1,101
  1,161
  1,224
  1,291
  1,360
  1,432
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,863
  2,013
  2,238
  2,473
  2,719
  2,977
  3,244
  3,524
  3,814
  4,118
  4,432
  4,759
  5,098
  5,451
  5,818
  6,199
  6,596
  7,008
  7,438
  7,886
  8,353
  8,840
  9,348
  9,877
  10,431
  11,009
  11,613
  12,244
  12,906
  13,597
  14,320
Debt-to-equity ratio
  13.290
  6.840
  7.060
  7.240
  7.400
  7.540
  7.660
  7.770
  7.860
  7.950
  8.020
  8.090
  8.150
  8.200
  8.250
  8.300
  8.340
  8.380
  8.420
  8.450
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.560
  8.580
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.021
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  446
  514
  595
  678
  765
  857
  952
  1,051
  1,155
  1,263
  1,375
  1,544
  1,665
  1,791
  1,922
  2,059
  2,201
  2,349
  2,503
  2,664
  2,831
  3,006
  3,189
  3,380
  3,579
  3,788
  4,006
  4,234
  4,473
  4,723
  4,985
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  64
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  148
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
Funds from operations, $m
  501
  613
  698
  784
  875
  970
  1,069
  1,172
  1,279
  1,391
  1,507
  1,608
  1,734
  1,865
  2,001
  2,142
  2,290
  2,443
  2,603
  2,770
  2,944
  3,125
  3,315
  3,513
  3,720
  3,936
  4,162
  4,399
  4,647
  4,906
  5,178
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  505
  636
  665
  750
  839
  932
  1,029
  1,131
  1,236
  1,347
  1,461
  1,561
  1,684
  1,813
  1,947
  2,087
  2,232
  2,383
  2,540
  2,704
  2,876
  3,054
  3,241
  3,435
  3,639
  3,852
  4,074
  4,307
  4,550
  4,805
  5,072
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
New CAPEX, $m
  -166
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -166
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -139
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -357
  -375
  -394
Free cash flow, $m
  339
  549
  573
  651
  734
  820
  911
  1,006
  1,104
  1,207
  1,314
  1,406
  1,521
  1,642
  1,767
  1,897
  2,033
  2,174
  2,321
  2,474
  2,633
  2,800
  2,974
  3,155
  3,345
  3,543
  3,750
  3,966
  4,193
  4,430
  4,678
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  404
  111
  202
  212
  222
  232
  241
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  568
  595
  622
  651
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -692
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -290
  111
  202
  212
  222
  232
  241
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  544
  568
  595
  622
  651
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  660
  774
  863
  955
  1,052
  1,152
  1,257
  1,366
  1,479
  1,597
  1,700
  1,827
  1,959
  2,097
  2,240
  2,390
  2,545
  2,708
  2,877
  3,054
  3,238
  3,431
  3,632
  3,843
  4,063
  4,293
  4,535
  4,787
  5,052
  5,329
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  367
  -101
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  559
  752
  839
  931
  1,026
  1,126
  1,229
  1,337
  1,449
  1,566
  1,667
  1,793
  1,924
  2,060
  2,202
  2,350
  2,504
  2,665
  2,832
  3,007
  3,189
  3,380
  3,579
  3,787
  4,005
  4,233
  4,472
  4,721
  4,983
  5,257
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  509
  619
  619
  608
  588
  559
  523
  480
  434
  385
  332
  284
  239
  196
  158
  124
  96
  72
  53
  37
  26
  18
  11
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dollarama Inc. operates a chain of dollar stores in Canada. The company’s stores offer consumer products, general merchandise, and seasonal items, including private label and branded products. As of September 1, 2016, it operated 1,051 stores. The company was formerly known as Dollarama Capital Corporation and changed its name to Dollarama Inc. in September 2009. Dollarama Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dollarama Inc. (DOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.7
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 136.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 76.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1050%
Total Debt to Equity 1329%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 25.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Return On Total Capital 31.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Return On Equity 157.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 86%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 23.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin 21.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 27.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
Payout Ratio 10.5%

DOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2963 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dollarama Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dollarama Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for DOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dollarama Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dollarama Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $271 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dollarama Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dollarama Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DOL are equal to 17.7%.

Life of production assets of 21.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dollarama Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DOL is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $100 million for Dollarama Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.911 million for Dollarama Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dollarama Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.6 billion.


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Stock chart of DOL Financial statements of DOL
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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