Intrinsic value of Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh - EDV

Previous Close

$22.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$22.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.96

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EDV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.90
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
Revenue, $m
  910
  1,053
  1,207
  1,372
  1,547
  1,733
  1,930
  2,136
  2,352
  2,578
  2,814
  3,059
  3,315
  3,581
  3,857
  4,145
  4,443
  4,753
  5,076
  5,411
  5,760
  6,123
  6,501
  6,894
  7,304
  7,732
  8,178
  8,643
  9,129
  9,637
  10,167
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  943
  1,081
  1,229
  1,387
  1,553
  1,729
  1,914
  2,107
  2,310
  2,521
  2,741
  2,970
  3,209
  3,456
  3,714
  3,981
  4,259
  4,548
  4,849
  5,161
  5,486
  5,825
  6,177
  6,545
  6,928
  7,328
  7,745
  8,180
  8,635
  9,110
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  866
  943
  1,081
  1,229
  1,387
  1,553
  1,729
  1,914
  2,107
  2,310
  2,521
  2,741
  2,970
  3,209
  3,456
  3,714
  3,981
  4,259
  4,548
  4,849
  5,161
  5,486
  5,825
  6,177
  6,545
  6,928
  7,328
  7,745
  8,180
  8,635
  9,110
Operating income, $m
  44
  109
  126
  143
  161
  180
  201
  222
  245
  268
  293
  318
  345
  372
  401
  431
  462
  494
  528
  563
  599
  637
  676
  717
  760
  804
  851
  899
  949
  1,002
  1,057
EBITDA, $m
  185
  273
  314
  356
  402
  450
  501
  555
  611
  670
  731
  795
  861
  930
  1,002
  1,077
  1,154
  1,235
  1,319
  1,406
  1,496
  1,591
  1,689
  1,791
  1,897
  2,009
  2,124
  2,245
  2,372
  2,503
  2,641
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  11
  17
  22
  29
  35
  42
  50
  57
  65
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  180
  194
  207
  221
  236
  252
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  98
  109
  120
  132
  145
  158
  173
  187
  203
  219
  235
  253
  271
  290
  309
  329
  350
  372
  395
  419
  443
  469
  496
  523
  553
  583
  614
  648
  682
  718
Tax expense, $m
  57
  27
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
Net income, $m
  -90
  72
  79
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  172
  184
  198
  211
  226
  240
  256
  272
  288
  306
  324
  342
  362
  382
  403
  425
  449
  473
  498
  524

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  168
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,834
  1,928
  2,210
  2,513
  2,834
  3,175
  3,534
  3,912
  4,308
  4,721
  5,153
  5,603
  6,071
  6,559
  7,065
  7,591
  8,138
  8,706
  9,297
  9,911
  10,550
  11,214
  11,906
  12,627
  13,378
  14,161
  14,978
  15,831
  16,721
  17,650
  18,622
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,666
  1,928
  2,210
  2,513
  2,834
  3,175
  3,534
  3,912
  4,308
  4,721
  5,153
  5,603
  6,071
  6,559
  7,065
  7,591
  8,138
  8,706
  9,297
  9,911
  10,550
  11,214
  11,906
  12,627
  13,378
  14,161
  14,978
  15,831
  16,721
  17,650
  18,622
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
Average production assets, $m
  1,205
  1,394
  1,598
  1,816
  2,049
  2,295
  2,555
  2,828
  3,114
  3,413
  3,725
  4,051
  4,389
  4,741
  5,107
  5,488
  5,883
  6,294
  6,721
  7,165
  7,626
  8,107
  8,607
  9,128
  9,671
  10,237
  10,828
  11,444
  12,087
  12,759
  13,462
Working capital, $m
  181
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  202
  214
Total debt, $m
  204
  292
  394
  503
  618
  741
  870
  1,006
  1,149
  1,298
  1,453
  1,615
  1,784
  1,959
  2,141
  2,331
  2,528
  2,732
  2,945
  3,166
  3,396
  3,635
  3,884
  4,144
  4,414
  4,696
  4,990
  5,297
  5,617
  5,952
  6,302
Total liabilities, $m
  606
  694
  796
  905
  1,020
  1,143
  1,272
  1,408
  1,551
  1,700
  1,855
  2,017
  2,186
  2,361
  2,543
  2,733
  2,930
  3,134
  3,347
  3,568
  3,798
  4,037
  4,286
  4,546
  4,816
  5,098
  5,392
  5,699
  6,019
  6,354
  6,704
Total equity, $m
  1,228
  1,234
  1,415
  1,608
  1,814
  2,032
  2,262
  2,504
  2,757
  3,022
  3,298
  3,586
  3,886
  4,197
  4,521
  4,858
  5,208
  5,572
  5,950
  6,343
  6,752
  7,177
  7,620
  8,081
  8,562
  9,063
  9,586
  10,132
  10,701
  11,296
  11,918
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,834
  1,928
  2,211
  2,513
  2,834
  3,175
  3,534
  3,912
  4,308
  4,722
  5,153
  5,603
  6,072
  6,558
  7,064
  7,591
  8,138
  8,706
  9,297
  9,911
  10,550
  11,214
  11,906
  12,627
  13,378
  14,161
  14,978
  15,831
  16,720
  17,650
  18,622
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.166
  0.240
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.636
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -90
  72
  79
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  172
  184
  198
  211
  226
  240
  256
  272
  288
  306
  324
  342
  362
  382
  403
  425
  449
  473
  498
  524
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  164
  188
  214
  241
  270
  301
  333
  366
  402
  438
  477
  516
  558
  601
  646
  692
  740
  791
  843
  897
  954
  1,013
  1,074
  1,138
  1,204
  1,274
  1,346
  1,422
  1,501
  1,584
Funds from operations, $m
  166
  236
  267
  301
  338
  376
  416
  459
  503
  549
  598
  648
  701
  755
  812
  871
  932
  996
  1,062
  1,131
  1,203
  1,277
  1,355
  1,436
  1,520
  1,608
  1,699
  1,795
  1,895
  1,999
  2,108
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  208
  233
  264
  298
  334
  372
  412
  454
  499
  545
  593
  643
  695
  750
  806
  865
  926
  990
  1,056
  1,124
  1,195
  1,270
  1,347
  1,427
  1,511
  1,599
  1,690
  1,785
  1,885
  1,988
  2,097
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -142
  -164
  -188
  -214
  -241
  -270
  -301
  -333
  -366
  -402
  -438
  -477
  -516
  -558
  -601
  -646
  -692
  -740
  -791
  -843
  -897
  -954
  -1,013
  -1,074
  -1,138
  -1,204
  -1,274
  -1,346
  -1,422
  -1,501
New CAPEX, $m
  -313
  -189
  -204
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -339
  -352
  -366
  -380
  -395
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -500
  -521
  -543
  -566
  -590
  -616
  -643
  -672
  -702
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -243
  -331
  -368
  -406
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -574
  -619
  -665
  -714
  -763
  -816
  -868
  -924
  -981
  -1,041
  -1,103
  -1,167
  -1,235
  -1,305
  -1,378
  -1,454
  -1,534
  -1,617
  -1,704
  -1,794
  -1,890
  -1,989
  -2,094
  -2,203
Free cash flow, $m
  -35
  -98
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -121
  -120
  -120
  -119
  -117
  -116
  -115
  -113
  -112
  -110
  -109
  -108
  -107
  -106
  -106
  -105
  -105
  -105
  -105
  -106
  -107
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -148
  94
  102
  109
  116
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  250
  96
  101
  106
  109
  112
  114
  116
  117
  117
  117
  116
  115
  114
  113
  111
  110
  108
  106
  105
  103
  102
  101
  99
  99
  98
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  57
  190
  203
  215
  225
  235
  243
  252
  259
  266
  272
  278
  284
  289
  295
  300
  307
  313
  319
  326
  333
  341
  350
  358
  369
  380
  391
  404
  417
  432
  447
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  93
  99
  106
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  263
  275
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -466
  -168
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -443
  -461
  -481
  -501
  -523
  -546
  -570
  -595
  -622
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  86
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  83
  -75
  -76
  -77
  -76
  -75
  -74
  -72
  -69
  -65
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -36
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.4
  91.4
  87.8
  84.7
  82.0
  79.6
  77.5
  75.6
  73.9
  72.4
  71.1
  69.9
  68.8
  67.8
  66.9
  66.1
  65.4
  64.7
  64.1
  63.6
  63.1
  62.6
  62.2
  61.8
  61.4
  61.0
  60.7
  60.4
  60.1
  59.8

Endeavour Mining Corporation (Endeavour) is an intermediate gold producer. The Company is a gold mining company that operates five mines in Cote d'Ivoire (Agbaou and Ity), Burkina Faso (Karma), Mali (Tabakoto) and Ghana (Nzema), along with project development and exploration assets. The Company's segments include Agbaou Mine Cote d'Ivoire, Nzema Mine Ghana, Tabakoto Mine Mali, Ity Mine Cote d'Ivoire, Karma Mine Burkina Faso, Exploration and Non-Mining. Its portfolio includes over 40 exploration licenses covering approximately 7,190 square kilometers with over 200 identified targets. The Company also holds interest in the Hounde project, which is located 250 kilometers southwest of Ouagadougou, the capital city of Burkina Faso. The Hounde project is an open pit mine.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh (EDV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22.9
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 28
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 16.1%
Total Debt to Equity 16.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Total Capital -7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Return On Equity -9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -17%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Net Profit Margin -9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.8%
Effective Tax Rate -633.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -200.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

EDV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EDV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $910 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EDV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EDV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EDV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EDV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EDV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EDV are equal to 132.4%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EDV is equal to 2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1228 million for Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 103.782 million for Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endeavour Mining Corporation Ordinary Sh at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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Financial statements of EDV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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