Intrinsic value of Ensign Energy Services Inc. - ESI

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$6.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -38.17
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  860
  877
  897
  920
  946
  975
  1,006
  1,041
  1,078
  1,118
  1,161
  1,207
  1,256
  1,308
  1,363
  1,422
  1,484
  1,550
  1,620
  1,694
  1,772
  1,854
  1,940
  2,032
  2,128
  2,229
  2,336
  2,448
  2,566
  2,690
  2,821
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  763
  781
  801
  823
  848
  876
  905
  938
  973
  1,010
  1,050
  1,092
  1,138
  1,186
  1,237
  1,291
  1,349
  1,409
  1,474
  1,541
  1,613
  1,688
  1,767
  1,851
  1,939
  2,032
  2,130
  2,232
  2,341
  2,454
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  300
  308
  316
  323
  332
  340
  348
  357
  366
  375
  384
  394
  404
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  468
  480
  492
  504
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,034
  1,063
  1,089
  1,117
  1,146
  1,180
  1,216
  1,253
  1,295
  1,339
  1,385
  1,434
  1,486
  1,542
  1,600
  1,661
  1,726
  1,795
  1,866
  1,942
  2,021
  2,105
  2,192
  2,284
  2,381
  2,482
  2,589
  2,701
  2,817
  2,941
  3,069
Operating income, $m
  -174
  -186
  -191
  -196
  -200
  -205
  -209
  -213
  -217
  -221
  -224
  -228
  -231
  -234
  -237
  -239
  -242
  -244
  -246
  -248
  -250
  -251
  -252
  -253
  -253
  -253
  -253
  -252
  -251
  -250
  -248
EBITDA, $m
  176
  172
  175
  180
  186
  193
  202
  212
  223
  236
  250
  265
  282
  300
  320
  341
  364
  389
  415
  443
  474
  506
  540
  577
  615
  657
  700
  747
  796
  849
  904
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  131
  138
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  -205
  -214
  -221
  -227
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -269
  -275
  -281
  -288
  -294
  -300
  -307
  -313
  -319
  -326
  -332
  -338
  -345
  -351
  -357
  -363
  -370
  -376
  -382
  -388
  -394
Tax expense, $m
  -54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -151
  -214
  -221
  -227
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -269
  -275
  -281
  -288
  -294
  -300
  -307
  -313
  -319
  -326
  -332
  -338
  -345
  -351
  -357
  -363
  -370
  -376
  -382
  -388
  -394

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,214
  3,249
  3,324
  3,409
  3,505
  3,611
  3,728
  3,855
  3,992
  4,140
  4,299
  4,469
  4,650
  4,844
  5,049
  5,267
  5,497
  5,742
  6,000
  6,273
  6,561
  6,865
  7,186
  7,524
  7,880
  8,256
  8,651
  9,066
  9,504
  9,964
  10,448
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,184
  3,249
  3,324
  3,409
  3,505
  3,611
  3,728
  3,855
  3,992
  4,140
  4,299
  4,469
  4,650
  4,844
  5,049
  5,267
  5,497
  5,742
  6,000
  6,273
  6,561
  6,865
  7,186
  7,524
  7,880
  8,256
  8,651
  9,066
  9,504
  9,964
  10,448
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
Average production assets, $m
  3,090
  3,152
  3,224
  3,307
  3,400
  3,503
  3,616
  3,740
  3,873
  4,016
  4,171
  4,336
  4,511
  4,699
  4,898
  5,109
  5,333
  5,570
  5,821
  6,086
  6,365
  6,660
  6,971
  7,299
  7,645
  8,009
  8,392
  8,795
  9,220
  9,666
  10,136
Working capital, $m
  -11
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
Total debt, $m
  717
  716
  748
  784
  825
  870
  919
  973
  1,032
  1,095
  1,162
  1,234
  1,311
  1,394
  1,481
  1,573
  1,671
  1,775
  1,885
  2,001
  2,124
  2,253
  2,389
  2,533
  2,684
  2,844
  3,012
  3,188
  3,374
  3,570
  3,776
Total liabilities, $m
  1,382
  1,381
  1,413
  1,449
  1,490
  1,535
  1,584
  1,638
  1,697
  1,760
  1,827
  1,899
  1,976
  2,059
  2,146
  2,238
  2,336
  2,440
  2,550
  2,666
  2,789
  2,918
  3,054
  3,198
  3,349
  3,509
  3,677
  3,853
  4,039
  4,235
  4,441
Total equity, $m
  1,832
  1,868
  1,911
  1,960
  2,015
  2,076
  2,143
  2,216
  2,295
  2,381
  2,472
  2,570
  2,674
  2,785
  2,903
  3,028
  3,161
  3,301
  3,450
  3,607
  3,773
  3,948
  4,132
  4,326
  4,531
  4,747
  4,974
  5,213
  5,465
  5,729
  6,008
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,214
  3,249
  3,324
  3,409
  3,505
  3,611
  3,727
  3,854
  3,992
  4,141
  4,299
  4,469
  4,650
  4,844
  5,049
  5,266
  5,497
  5,741
  6,000
  6,273
  6,562
  6,866
  7,186
  7,524
  7,880
  8,256
  8,651
  9,066
  9,504
  9,964
  10,449
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.391
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.566
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575
  0.575

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -151
  -214
  -221
  -227
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -269
  -275
  -281
  -288
  -294
  -300
  -307
  -313
  -319
  -326
  -332
  -338
  -345
  -351
  -357
  -363
  -370
  -376
  -382
  -388
  -394
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  350
  358
  366
  376
  386
  398
  411
  425
  440
  456
  474
  493
  513
  534
  557
  581
  606
  633
  661
  692
  723
  757
  792
  829
  869
  910
  954
  999
  1,048
  1,098
  1,152
Funds from operations, $m
  160
  144
  146
  149
  154
  160
  166
  174
  183
  194
  205
  217
  231
  246
  263
  280
  300
  320
  342
  366
  391
  419
  448
  479
  512
  547
  584
  624
  666
  710
  758
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  165
  -34
  144
  147
  151
  156
  163
  171
  179
  189
  200
  212
  226
  241
  257
  274
  293
  313
  335
  358
  383
  410
  438
  469
  501
  536
  572
  611
  653
  697
  743
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -351
  -358
  -366
  -376
  -386
  -398
  -411
  -425
  -440
  -456
  -474
  -493
  -513
  -534
  -557
  -581
  -606
  -633
  -661
  -692
  -723
  -757
  -792
  -829
  -869
  -910
  -954
  -999
  -1,048
  -1,098
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -62
  -72
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -144
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -403
  -424
  -447
  -470
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -413
  -430
  -449
  -469
  -489
  -511
  -534
  -558
  -584
  -610
  -639
  -669
  -700
  -733
  -768
  -805
  -843
  -884
  -926
  -972
  -1,018
  -1,068
  -1,120
  -1,175
  -1,233
  -1,293
  -1,357
  -1,423
  -1,495
  -1,568
Free cash flow, $m
  112
  -447
  -287
  -302
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -379
  -395
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -459
  -476
  -494
  -512
  -530
  -549
  -568
  -588
  -609
  -630
  -651
  -674
  -697
  -721
  -746
  -771
  -797
  -825
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  454
  298
  315
  332
  349
  366
  383
  400
  417
  434
  452
  470
  488
  507
  526
  546
  567
  588
  609
  631
  654
  678
  702
  727
  753
  780
  808
  837
  866
  897
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -53
  483
  330
  351
  373
  394
  416
  437
  458
  480
  502
  524
  547
  570
  594
  619
  644
  671
  698
  725
  753
  783
  814
  846
  878
  912
  948
  985
  1,023
  1,062
  1,103
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  -418
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -321
  -332
  -343
  -354
  -366
  -377
  -389
  -401
  -414
  -426
  -439
  -452
  -466
  -479
  -493
  -508
  -522
  -538
  -553
  -569
  -585
  -602
  -619
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  255
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.8
  60.1
  48.7
  39.2
  31.4
  25.1
  20.0
  15.9
  12.6
  10.0
  7.9
  6.3
  5.0
  4.0
  3.1
  2.5
  2.0
  1.6
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1

Ensign Energy Services Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides oilfield services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. Its oilfield services include drilling and well servicing, oil sands coring, directional services, underbalanced and managed pressure drilling, equipment rentals, wireline services, and production testing/fracturing fluid services. The company offers shallow, intermediate, and deep well drilling, as well as specialized drilling services, including horizontal and underbalanced drilling, horizontal re-entry, and slant drilling for steam assisted gravity drainage applications; and coring and oil sands drilling services to the mining, and oil and natural gas industries. It also provides directional drilling and related services for conventional and horizontal drilling applications; shallow to deep well services to oil and natural gas producers, such as completions, abandonments, production workovers, and bottom hole pump changes; and interactive pressure drilling packages with self-contained systems comprising nitrogen generation, compression equipment, and surface control systems. In addition, the company rents drill strings, loaders, tanks, pumps, rig matting, blow-out preventers, waste bins, and wastewater treatment equipment for the drilling and completions segments of the oilfield industry; and wireline and production testing services to the oil and natural gas industry. Further, it offers contract directional drilling and well servicing services. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated a fleet of 222 land drilling rigs, 27 specialty rigs, and 116 well servicing rigs. Ensign Energy Services Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ensign Energy Services Inc. (ESI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -38.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -74.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 31.8%
Total Debt to Equity 39.1%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Total Capital -5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Return On Equity -7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
EBITDA Margin 20.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Operating Margin -20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -23.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -17.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio -43.7%

ESI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $860 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ensign Energy Services Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ensign Energy Services Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for ESI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ensign Energy Services Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ensign Energy Services Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $293 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Ensign Energy Services Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ensign Energy Services Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESI are equal to 359.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ensign Energy Services Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESI is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1832 million for Ensign Energy Services Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 149.275 million for Ensign Energy Services Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ensign Energy Services Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.


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