Intrinsic value of Franco-Nevada Corporation - FNV

Previous Close

$99.51

  Intrinsic Value

$7.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$99.51

 
Intrinsic value

$7.55

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FNV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.56
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  824
  892
  964
  1,037
  1,114
  1,194
  1,277
  1,363
  1,453
  1,546
  1,643
  1,744
  1,850
  1,960
  2,074
  2,193
  2,318
  2,448
  2,584
  2,726
  2,874
  3,029
  3,192
  3,362
  3,540
  3,726
  3,921
  4,126
  4,340
  4,564
  4,800
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  334
  360
  388
  417
  447
  478
  510
  543
  578
  615
  652
  692
  733
  776
  820
  867
  916
  966
  1,019
  1,075
  1,133
  1,194
  1,257
  1,324
  1,394
  1,467
  1,543
  1,623
  1,707
  1,795
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
  383
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  466
  478
  490
  502
  515
  527
  541
  554
  568
  582
  597
  612
  627
  643
  659
Total operating expenses, $m
  614
  656
  690
  726
  764
  802
  842
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,275
  1,333
  1,394
  1,456
  1,521
  1,590
  1,660
  1,735
  1,811
  1,892
  1,976
  2,064
  2,155
  2,250
  2,350
  2,454
Operating income, $m
  210
  237
  273
  311
  351
  392
  435
  480
  527
  576
  627
  680
  736
  794
  855
  918
  985
  1,055
  1,128
  1,204
  1,285
  1,369
  1,458
  1,550
  1,648
  1,750
  1,858
  1,971
  2,090
  2,215
  2,346
EBITDA, $m
  580
  639
  707
  779
  853
  930
  1,011
  1,095
  1,182
  1,273
  1,367
  1,466
  1,569
  1,677
  1,789
  1,907
  2,029
  2,158
  2,292
  2,433
  2,580
  2,734
  2,896
  3,065
  3,243
  3,429
  3,625
  3,830
  4,045
  4,271
  4,509
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  227
  237
  273
  311
  350
  391
  434
  478
  525
  573
  624
  677
  732
  789
  850
  913
  979
  1,048
  1,121
  1,197
  1,277
  1,360
  1,448
  1,540
  1,637
  1,739
  1,845
  1,958
  2,076
  2,199
  2,330
Tax expense, $m
  62
  64
  74
  84
  95
  106
  117
  129
  142
  155
  168
  183
  198
  213
  229
  246
  264
  283
  303
  323
  345
  367
  391
  416
  442
  469
  498
  529
  560
  594
  629
Net income, $m
  165
  173
  199
  227
  256
  285
  317
  349
  383
  418
  455
  494
  534
  576
  620
  666
  715
  765
  818
  874
  932
  993
  1,057
  1,124
  1,195
  1,269
  1,347
  1,429
  1,515
  1,606
  1,701

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  342
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,704
  5,795
  6,257
  6,737
  7,236
  7,754
  8,293
  8,853
  9,435
  10,041
  10,671
  11,328
  12,012
  12,724
  13,467
  14,242
  15,051
  15,895
  16,778
  17,700
  18,664
  19,672
  20,726
  21,830
  22,985
  24,195
  25,462
  26,789
  28,180
  29,638
  31,166
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,362
  5,795
  6,257
  6,737
  7,236
  7,754
  8,293
  8,853
  9,435
  10,041
  10,671
  11,328
  12,012
  12,724
  13,467
  14,242
  15,051
  15,895
  16,778
  17,700
  18,664
  19,672
  20,726
  21,830
  22,985
  24,195
  25,462
  26,789
  28,180
  29,638
  31,166
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
Average production assets, $m
  4,679
  5,067
  5,471
  5,891
  6,327
  6,780
  7,251
  7,741
  8,250
  8,780
  9,331
  9,905
  10,503
  11,126
  11,776
  12,453
  13,161
  13,899
  14,671
  15,477
  16,320
  17,201
  18,123
  19,088
  20,099
  21,156
  22,264
  23,425
  24,641
  25,916
  27,252
Working capital, $m
  437
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  239
  252
  267
  282
  297
  313
  331
  348
  367
  387
  407
  428
  451
  474
  499
  525
  552
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  17
  26
  35
  45
  56
  66
  77
  89
  101
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  217
  234
  253
  272
  292
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  461
  490
Total liabilities, $m
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
  460
  484
  509
  535
  563
  592
Total equity, $m
  5,602
  5,685
  6,138
  6,609
  7,098
  7,607
  8,135
  8,685
  9,256
  9,850
  10,469
  11,113
  11,783
  12,482
  13,211
  13,971
  14,765
  15,593
  16,459
  17,363
  18,309
  19,298
  20,332
  21,415
  22,549
  23,735
  24,978
  26,280
  27,645
  29,075
  30,574
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,703
  5,795
  6,257
  6,737
  7,235
  7,754
  8,293
  8,853
  9,435
  10,041
  10,672
  11,328
  12,011
  12,724
  13,467
  14,242
  15,051
  15,895
  16,778
  17,699
  18,664
  19,672
  20,726
  21,830
  22,986
  24,195
  25,462
  26,789
  28,180
  29,638
  31,166
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
  0.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981
  0.981

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  165
  173
  199
  227
  256
  285
  317
  349
  383
  418
  455
  494
  534
  576
  620
  666
  715
  765
  818
  874
  932
  993
  1,057
  1,124
  1,195
  1,269
  1,347
  1,429
  1,515
  1,606
  1,701
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  370
  402
  434
  468
  502
  538
  576
  614
  655
  697
  741
  786
  834
  883
  935
  988
  1,044
  1,103
  1,164
  1,228
  1,295
  1,365
  1,438
  1,515
  1,595
  1,679
  1,767
  1,859
  1,956
  2,057
  2,163
Funds from operations, $m
  645
  575
  633
  694
  758
  824
  892
  963
  1,038
  1,115
  1,196
  1,280
  1,368
  1,459
  1,555
  1,655
  1,759
  1,868
  1,982
  2,102
  2,227
  2,358
  2,495
  2,639
  2,790
  2,948
  3,114
  3,288
  3,471
  3,662
  3,864
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  636
  567
  625
  686
  749
  814
  883
  954
  1,028
  1,104
  1,185
  1,268
  1,356
  1,447
  1,542
  1,641
  1,745
  1,853
  1,967
  2,086
  2,210
  2,340
  2,477
  2,620
  2,770
  2,927
  3,092
  3,265
  3,446
  3,637
  3,837
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -371
  -402
  -434
  -468
  -502
  -538
  -576
  -614
  -655
  -697
  -741
  -786
  -834
  -883
  -935
  -988
  -1,044
  -1,103
  -1,164
  -1,228
  -1,295
  -1,365
  -1,438
  -1,515
  -1,595
  -1,679
  -1,767
  -1,859
  -1,956
  -2,057
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,009
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -436
  -453
  -471
  -490
  -509
  -530
  -551
  -574
  -598
  -623
  -650
  -678
  -707
  -739
  -771
  -806
  -843
  -881
  -922
  -965
  -1,010
  -1,058
  -1,108
  -1,161
  -1,216
  -1,275
  -1,336
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -932
  -759
  -806
  -854
  -904
  -955
  -1,009
  -1,066
  -1,123
  -1,185
  -1,248
  -1,315
  -1,384
  -1,457
  -1,533
  -1,613
  -1,695
  -1,783
  -1,874
  -1,970
  -2,071
  -2,176
  -2,287
  -2,403
  -2,525
  -2,653
  -2,787
  -2,928
  -3,075
  -3,231
  -3,393
Free cash flow, $m
  -296
  -192
  -181
  -168
  -155
  -141
  -127
  -112
  -96
  -80
  -63
  -46
  -28
  -10
  9
  29
  49
  70
  92
  115
  139
  164
  189
  216
  244
  274
  305
  337
  371
  406
  444
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -621
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,216
  252
  254
  244
  234
  223
  212
  200
  188
  176
  163
  150
  137
  123
  109
  94
  79
  63
  47
  31
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  595
  260
  263
  253
  243
  233
  222
  211
  199
  188
  175
  162
  150
  137
  123
  109
  94
  79
  64
  49
  32
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  300
  68
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  183
  209
  237
  266
  297
  329
  362
  397
  434
  473
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,329
  -425
  -453
  -471
  -489
  -509
  -529
  -549
  -571
  -594
  -618
  -644
  -671
  -699
  -729
  -760
  -793
  -829
  -865
  -904
  -946
  -989
  -1,035
  -1,083
  -1,133
  -1,187
  -1,243
  -1,302
  -1,364
  -1,430
  -1,499
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  342
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -15
  -371
  -386
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -450
  -468
  -487
  -507
  -528
  -550
  -573
  -597
  -623
  -650
  -679
  -709
  -741
  -775
  -806
  -825
  -845
  -867
  -890
  -914
  -940
  -967
  -996
  -1,026
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -14
  -340
  -336
  -330
  -323
  -314
  -304
  -293
  -280
  -266
  -251
  -234
  -218
  -200
  -183
  -165
  -148
  -131
  -114
  -98
  -83
  -68
  -55
  -44
  -35
  -27
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.6
  97.3
  96.1
  95.1
  94.2
  93.4
  92.7
  92.1
  91.6
  91.1
  90.7
  90.4
  90.1
  89.8
  89.6
  89.5
  89.4
  89.3
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2

Franco-Nevada Corporation (Franco-Nevada) is a gold-focused royalty and stream company. The Company has interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets. The Company is engaged in resource sector royalty/stream acquisitions and management activities. It has a portfolio of properties in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Its properties in the United States include Goldstrike, Stillwater, Gold Quarry, Marigold, Fire Creek/Midas, Bald Mountain, South Arturo and Other. Its properties in Canada include Sudbury, Detour Lake, Golden Highway, Musselwhite, Hemlo, Kirkland Lake, Timmins West, Canadian Malartic and Other. Its properties in Latin America include Antapaccay, Antamina, Candelaria, Guadalupe-Palmarejo and Other. Its properties in Rest of World include Mine Waste Solutions (MWS), Sabodala, Subika, Tasiast, Karma, Duketon, Edikan and Other.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 107.6
Price to Sales 21.6
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -47.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 39.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
EBITDA Margin 72.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.6%
Operating Margin 25.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 97%

FNV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FNV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $824 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Franco-Nevada Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Franco-Nevada Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FNV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FNV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Franco-Nevada Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Franco-Nevada Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FNV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $314 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FNV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Franco-Nevada Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Franco-Nevada Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FNV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FNV are equal to 567.8%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Franco-Nevada Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FNV is equal to 11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5602 million for Franco-Nevada Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 185.484 million for Franco-Nevada Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Franco-Nevada Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.5 billion.

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Financial statements of FNV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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