Intrinsic value of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. - FVI

Previous Close

$6.35

  Intrinsic Value

$34.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+446%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$6.35

 
Intrinsic value

$34.70

 
Up/down potential

+446%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of FVI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.89
  35.90
  32.81
  30.03
  27.53
  25.27
  23.25
  21.42
  19.78
  18.30
  16.97
  15.77
  14.70
  13.73
  12.85
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.17
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  284
  386
  513
  667
  850
  1,065
  1,312
  1,593
  1,909
  2,258
  2,641
  3,058
  3,507
  3,989
  4,501
  5,044
  5,618
  6,220
  6,852
  7,512
  8,201
  8,919
  9,667
  10,444
  11,253
  12,093
  12,966
  13,873
  14,816
  15,796
  16,816
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  79
  105
  136
  173
  217
  268
  325
  389
  461
  539
  624
  715
  814
  918
  1,029
  1,146
  1,269
  1,398
  1,532
  1,673
  1,820
  1,972
  2,131
  2,296
  2,467
  2,645
  2,830
  3,022
  3,222
  3,430
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  223
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
  258
  265
  271
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  347
  356
  365
Total operating expenses, $m
  218
  257
  288
  323
  365
  414
  470
  532
  601
  678
  762
  852
  949
  1,054
  1,164
  1,281
  1,404
  1,534
  1,669
  1,810
  1,958
  2,112
  2,272
  2,438
  2,611
  2,790
  2,976
  3,169
  3,369
  3,578
  3,795
Operating income, $m
  66
  129
  225
  343
  485
  651
  843
  1,062
  1,307
  1,580
  1,880
  2,206
  2,558
  2,935
  3,337
  3,763
  4,213
  4,687
  5,183
  5,701
  6,243
  6,808
  7,395
  8,007
  8,642
  9,303
  9,990
  10,704
  11,446
  12,218
  13,020
EBITDA, $m
  111
  190
  306
  448
  619
  819
  1,050
  1,313
  1,608
  1,936
  2,296
  2,688
  3,111
  3,564
  4,047
  4,559
  5,099
  5,667
  6,263
  6,886
  7,537
  8,214
  8,920
  9,654
  10,417
  11,210
  12,035
  12,892
  13,782
  14,709
  15,672
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  7
  12
  17
  24
  32
  41
  52
  64
  77
  91
  106
  123
  141
  160
  180
  202
  224
  247
  272
  298
  324
  352
  381
  411
  443
  475
  509
  544
  580
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  126
  218
  332
  467
  627
  811
  1,020
  1,255
  1,516
  1,803
  2,115
  2,451
  2,812
  3,196
  3,603
  4,033
  4,485
  4,959
  5,454
  5,971
  6,510
  7,071
  7,655
  8,261
  8,892
  9,547
  10,229
  10,937
  11,674
  12,440
Tax expense, $m
  40
  34
  59
  90
  126
  169
  219
  275
  339
  409
  487
  571
  662
  759
  863
  973
  1,089
  1,211
  1,339
  1,473
  1,612
  1,758
  1,909
  2,067
  2,231
  2,401
  2,578
  2,762
  2,953
  3,152
  3,359
Net income, $m
  24
  92
  159
  242
  341
  457
  592
  745
  916
  1,107
  1,316
  1,544
  1,789
  2,053
  2,333
  2,630
  2,944
  3,274
  3,620
  3,981
  4,359
  4,752
  5,162
  5,588
  6,031
  6,491
  6,970
  7,467
  7,984
  8,522
  9,081

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  169
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  761
  804
  1,068
  1,389
  1,771
  2,218
  2,734
  3,320
  3,976
  4,704
  5,502
  6,370
  7,306
  8,309
  9,378
  10,509
  11,703
  12,959
  14,274
  15,650
  17,086
  18,582
  20,140
  21,759
  23,443
  25,193
  27,012
  28,902
  30,866
  32,908
  35,033
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  592
  804
  1,068
  1,389
  1,771
  2,218
  2,734
  3,320
  3,976
  4,704
  5,502
  6,370
  7,306
  8,309
  9,378
  10,509
  11,703
  12,959
  14,274
  15,650
  17,086
  18,582
  20,140
  21,759
  23,443
  25,193
  27,012
  28,902
  30,866
  32,908
  35,033
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
Average production assets, $m
  430
  584
  776
  1,009
  1,287
  1,612
  1,987
  2,412
  2,890
  3,418
  3,999
  4,629
  5,310
  6,039
  6,815
  7,637
  8,505
  9,417
  10,374
  11,373
  12,417
  13,504
  14,636
  15,813
  17,037
  18,308
  19,630
  21,003
  22,431
  23,915
  25,459
Working capital, $m
  147
  -30
  -39
  -51
  -65
  -82
  -101
  -123
  -147
  -174
  -203
  -235
  -270
  -307
  -347
  -388
  -433
  -479
  -528
  -578
  -631
  -687
  -744
  -804
  -866
  -931
  -998
  -1,068
  -1,141
  -1,216
  -1,295
Total debt, $m
  55
  122
  207
  309
  431
  574
  738
  925
  1,134
  1,367
  1,621
  1,898
  2,197
  2,517
  2,857
  3,218
  3,599
  4,000
  4,420
  4,858
  5,316
  5,794
  6,291
  6,807
  7,344
  7,903
  8,483
  9,086
  9,712
  10,364
  11,041
Total liabilities, $m
  189
  256
  341
  443
  565
  708
  872
  1,059
  1,268
  1,501
  1,755
  2,032
  2,331
  2,651
  2,991
  3,352
  3,733
  4,134
  4,554
  4,992
  5,450
  5,928
  6,425
  6,941
  7,478
  8,037
  8,617
  9,220
  9,846
  10,498
  11,175
Total equity, $m
  572
  548
  727
  946
  1,206
  1,511
  1,862
  2,261
  2,708
  3,203
  3,747
  4,338
  4,976
  5,659
  6,386
  7,157
  7,970
  8,825
  9,721
  10,658
  11,636
  12,654
  13,715
  14,818
  15,965
  17,157
  18,395
  19,682
  21,020
  22,411
  23,857
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  761
  804
  1,068
  1,389
  1,771
  2,219
  2,734
  3,320
  3,976
  4,704
  5,502
  6,370
  7,307
  8,310
  9,377
  10,509
  11,703
  12,959
  14,275
  15,650
  17,086
  18,582
  20,140
  21,759
  23,443
  25,194
  27,012
  28,902
  30,866
  32,909
  35,032
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.096
  0.220
  0.280
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  92
  159
  242
  341
  457
  592
  745
  916
  1,107
  1,316
  1,544
  1,789
  2,053
  2,333
  2,630
  2,944
  3,274
  3,620
  3,981
  4,359
  4,752
  5,162
  5,588
  6,031
  6,491
  6,970
  7,467
  7,984
  8,522
  9,081
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  61
  81
  105
  134
  168
  207
  251
  301
  356
  417
  482
  553
  629
  710
  796
  886
  981
  1,081
  1,185
  1,293
  1,407
  1,525
  1,647
  1,775
  1,907
  2,045
  2,188
  2,337
  2,491
  2,652
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  153
  240
  347
  475
  625
  799
  996
  1,217
  1,463
  1,733
  2,026
  2,343
  2,682
  3,043
  3,426
  3,830
  4,255
  4,700
  5,166
  5,652
  6,159
  6,686
  7,235
  7,805
  8,398
  9,014
  9,655
  10,321
  11,013
  11,733
Change in working capital, $m
  -39
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -79
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  264
  250
  359
  489
  642
  818
  1,018
  1,242
  1,490
  1,762
  2,058
  2,377
  2,719
  3,083
  3,468
  3,874
  4,301
  4,749
  5,217
  5,705
  6,214
  6,744
  7,295
  7,868
  8,463
  9,082
  9,725
  10,393
  11,088
  11,812
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -45
  -61
  -81
  -105
  -134
  -168
  -207
  -251
  -301
  -356
  -417
  -482
  -553
  -629
  -710
  -796
  -886
  -981
  -1,081
  -1,185
  -1,293
  -1,407
  -1,525
  -1,647
  -1,775
  -1,907
  -2,045
  -2,188
  -2,337
  -2,491
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -154
  -192
  -233
  -278
  -325
  -375
  -426
  -477
  -529
  -580
  -631
  -680
  -729
  -776
  -822
  -868
  -912
  -956
  -1,000
  -1,043
  -1,087
  -1,132
  -1,177
  -1,224
  -1,272
  -1,322
  -1,373
  -1,428
  -1,484
  -1,544
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -199
  -253
  -314
  -383
  -459
  -543
  -633
  -728
  -830
  -936
  -1,048
  -1,162
  -1,282
  -1,405
  -1,532
  -1,664
  -1,798
  -1,937
  -2,081
  -2,228
  -2,380
  -2,539
  -2,702
  -2,871
  -3,047
  -3,229
  -3,418
  -3,616
  -3,821
  -4,035
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  64
  -3
  45
  106
  183
  275
  385
  513
  660
  826
  1,011
  1,215
  1,437
  1,677
  1,936
  2,211
  2,503
  2,812
  3,137
  3,477
  3,833
  4,205
  4,593
  4,997
  5,417
  5,853
  6,307
  6,778
  7,268
  7,777
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  67
  84
  102
  122
  143
  165
  187
  209
  232
  255
  277
  299
  320
  341
  361
  381
  400
  420
  439
  458
  477
  497
  517
  537
  558
  580
  603
  627
  652
  678
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  0
  98
  71
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  67
  182
  173
  154
  143
  165
  187
  209
  232
  255
  277
  299
  320
  341
  361
  381
  400
  420
  439
  458
  477
  497
  517
  537
  558
  580
  603
  627
  652
  678
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  132
  82
  147
  228
  325
  440
  572
  723
  892
  1,081
  1,288
  1,513
  1,757
  2,018
  2,297
  2,592
  2,904
  3,232
  3,575
  3,935
  4,311
  4,702
  5,110
  5,534
  5,975
  6,433
  6,909
  7,404
  7,919
  8,454
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -215
  -145
  -180
  -218
  -260
  -305
  -351
  -399
  -447
  -496
  -544
  -591
  -638
  -683
  -727
  -771
  -813
  -855
  -896
  -937
  -978
  -1,019
  -1,061
  -1,103
  -1,147
  -1,192
  -1,238
  -1,287
  -1,338
  -1,391
  -1,447
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  169
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  156
  0
  0
  0
  21
  88
  173
  276
  397
  537
  697
  876
  1,074
  1,291
  1,526
  1,779
  2,049
  2,336
  2,639
  2,957
  3,292
  3,642
  4,007
  4,387
  4,783
  5,195
  5,622
  6,067
  6,528
  7,008
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  150
  0
  0
  0
  16
  64
  117
  172
  228
  282
  331
  374
  408
  433
  448
  452
  446
  430
  406
  376
  340
  302
  263
  223
  186
  152
  121
  94
  71
  53
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  91.5
  87.2
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7
  85.7

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in Latin America. The company explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc deposits. It holds interests in the Caylloma mine located in the Arequipa Department in southern Peru; and the San Jose mine located in the State of Oaxaca in southern Mexico. The company was formerly known as Fortuna Ventures Inc. and changed its name to Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. in June 2005. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FVI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.9
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 9.6%
Total Debt to Equity 9.6%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 39.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Operating Margin 23.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 62.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

FVI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FVI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $284 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FVI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FVI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FVI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $174 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FVI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FVI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FVI are equal to 151.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FVI is equal to -7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $572 million for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 174.727 million for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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Stock chart of FVI Financial statements of FVI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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