Intrinsic value of Gibson Energy Inc. - GEI

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$18.47

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.47

 
Intrinsic value

$1.07

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GEI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,594
  4,686
  4,794
  4,917
  5,055
  5,208
  5,377
  5,560
  5,758
  5,971
  6,201
  6,446
  6,707
  6,986
  7,282
  7,596
  7,929
  8,281
  8,654
  9,048
  9,463
  9,902
  10,365
  10,852
  11,366
  11,907
  12,477
  13,076
  13,707
  14,371
  15,070
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,366
  4,466
  4,579
  4,707
  4,848
  5,003
  5,172
  5,355
  5,552
  5,763
  5,944
  6,185
  6,442
  6,715
  7,004
  7,311
  7,636
  7,980
  8,343
  8,726
  9,131
  9,557
  10,007
  10,481
  10,980
  11,505
  12,058
  12,640
  13,252
  13,896
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  508
  521
  534
  547
  561
  575
  590
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
  701
  718
  736
  755
  774
  793
  813
  833
  854
  875
  897
  920
  943
  966
  990
  1,015
  1,040
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,766
  4,874
  4,987
  5,113
  5,254
  5,409
  5,578
  5,762
  5,959
  6,171
  6,398
  6,595
  6,852
  7,126
  7,416
  7,722
  8,047
  8,391
  8,754
  9,136
  9,539
  9,964
  10,411
  10,882
  11,378
  11,900
  12,448
  13,024
  13,630
  14,267
  14,936
Operating income, $m
  -172
  -189
  -193
  -197
  -199
  -201
  -202
  -202
  -201
  -200
  -197
  -149
  -145
  -140
  -134
  -127
  -119
  -110
  -100
  -88
  -76
  -62
  -47
  -30
  -12
  8
  29
  52
  77
  104
  133
EBITDA, $m
  72
  47
  47
  49
  52
  57
  62
  70
  79
  89
  100
  114
  128
  145
  163
  183
  204
  227
  253
  280
  310
  341
  375
  412
  451
  493
  537
  585
  636
  689
  747
Interest expense (income), $m
  90
  91
  94
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  188
  198
  210
  222
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  344
  364
  384
  405
Earnings before tax, $m
  -235
  -280
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -307
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -328
  -333
  -291
  -295
  -299
  -302
  -304
  -306
  -308
  -309
  -310
  -310
  -309
  -308
  -307
  -304
  -301
  -297
  -292
  -286
  -280
  -272
Tax expense, $m
  -57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -160
  -280
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -307
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -328
  -333
  -291
  -295
  -299
  -302
  -304
  -306
  -308
  -309
  -310
  -310
  -309
  -308
  -307
  -304
  -301
  -297
  -292
  -286
  -280
  -272

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,261
  3,263
  3,338
  3,424
  3,520
  3,627
  3,744
  3,872
  4,010
  4,158
  4,318
  4,489
  4,671
  4,865
  5,071
  5,290
  5,522
  5,767
  6,026
  6,301
  6,590
  6,896
  7,218
  7,557
  7,915
  8,292
  8,689
  9,106
  9,546
  10,008
  10,494
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,199
  3,263
  3,338
  3,424
  3,520
  3,627
  3,744
  3,872
  4,010
  4,158
  4,318
  4,489
  4,671
  4,865
  5,071
  5,290
  5,522
  5,767
  6,026
  6,301
  6,590
  6,896
  7,218
  7,557
  7,915
  8,292
  8,689
  9,106
  9,546
  10,008
  10,494
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
  1.436
Average production assets, $m
  1,813
  1,851
  1,893
  1,942
  1,997
  2,057
  2,124
  2,196
  2,274
  2,359
  2,449
  2,546
  2,649
  2,759
  2,876
  3,000
  3,132
  3,271
  3,418
  3,574
  3,738
  3,911
  4,094
  4,287
  4,490
  4,703
  4,928
  5,165
  5,414
  5,677
  5,952
Working capital, $m
  363
  309
  316
  325
  334
  344
  355
  367
  380
  394
  409
  425
  443
  461
  481
  501
  523
  547
  571
  597
  625
  654
  684
  716
  750
  786
  823
  863
  905
  949
  995
Total debt, $m
  1,359
  1,403
  1,455
  1,514
  1,580
  1,654
  1,735
  1,823
  1,918
  2,020
  2,130
  2,248
  2,373
  2,507
  2,649
  2,800
  2,959
  3,128
  3,307
  3,496
  3,696
  3,906
  4,128
  4,362
  4,608
  4,868
  5,141
  5,429
  5,732
  6,050
  6,385
Total liabilities, $m
  2,204
  2,248
  2,300
  2,359
  2,425
  2,499
  2,580
  2,668
  2,763
  2,865
  2,975
  3,093
  3,218
  3,352
  3,494
  3,645
  3,804
  3,973
  4,152
  4,341
  4,541
  4,751
  4,973
  5,207
  5,453
  5,713
  5,986
  6,274
  6,577
  6,895
  7,230
Total equity, $m
  1,057
  1,015
  1,038
  1,065
  1,095
  1,128
  1,164
  1,204
  1,247
  1,293
  1,343
  1,396
  1,453
  1,513
  1,577
  1,645
  1,717
  1,794
  1,874
  1,959
  2,050
  2,145
  2,245
  2,350
  2,462
  2,579
  2,702
  2,832
  2,969
  3,112
  3,264
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,261
  3,263
  3,338
  3,424
  3,520
  3,627
  3,744
  3,872
  4,010
  4,158
  4,318
  4,489
  4,671
  4,865
  5,071
  5,290
  5,521
  5,767
  6,026
  6,300
  6,591
  6,896
  7,218
  7,557
  7,915
  8,292
  8,688
  9,106
  9,546
  10,007
  10,494
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.286
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -160
  -280
  -287
  -294
  -301
  -307
  -313
  -318
  -323
  -328
  -333
  -291
  -295
  -299
  -302
  -304
  -306
  -308
  -309
  -310
  -310
  -309
  -308
  -307
  -304
  -301
  -297
  -292
  -286
  -280
  -272
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  244
  236
  241
  246
  251
  257
  264
  272
  280
  289
  298
  262
  273
  284
  297
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  614
Funds from operations, $m
  161
  -44
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -46
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -5
  5
  17
  29
  43
  59
  75
  94
  114
  135
  159
  184
  211
  240
  272
  305
  342
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  208
  -153
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -59
  -59
  -58
  -57
  -54
  -50
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -25
  -16
  -5
  6
  19
  33
  48
  65
  83
  103
  125
  148
  173
  201
  230
  262
  295
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -187
  -191
  -195
  -200
  -206
  -212
  -219
  -226
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -297
  -309
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -532
  -558
  -585
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -247
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -383
  -401
  -421
  -440
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -615
  -645
  -677
  -710
  -745
  -781
  -820
  -861
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  -378
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -338
  -350
  -361
  -373
  -384
  -395
  -405
  -416
  -426
  -436
  -446
  -456
  -466
  -475
  -485
  -494
  -503
  -512
  -520
  -528
  -536
  -544
  -552
  -559
  -566
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  44
  52
  59
  66
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
  335
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  231
  291
  259
  268
  277
  285
  294
  302
  309
  316
  323
  330
  336
  342
  348
  354
  359
  363
  368
  372
  375
  378
  381
  383
  385
  386
  386
  386
  386
  384
  382
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  194
  335
  311
  327
  343
  359
  375
  390
  404
  418
  433
  448
  462
  476
  490
  505
  519
  532
  547
  561
  574
  588
  603
  617
  632
  646
  659
  674
  689
  703
  717
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  153
  -333
  -235
  -241
  -247
  -252
  -257
  -262
  -266
  -270
  -274
  -277
  -280
  -282
  -284
  -286
  -287
  -287
  -287
  -286
  -285
  -283
  -281
  -278
  -274
  -269
  -263
  -256
  -249
  -240
  -231
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  110
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.4
  81.0
  73.3
  66.3
  60.0
  54.2
  49.1
  44.4
  40.3
  36.6
  33.3
  30.3
  27.7
  25.3
  23.2
  21.3
  19.6
  18.1
  16.8
  15.5
  14.5
  13.5
  12.6
  11.8
  11.1
  10.5
  9.9
  9.4
  8.9
  8.5

Gibson Energy Inc. provides movement, storage, blending, processing, marketing, and distribution of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, water, oilfield waste, and refined products in Canada and the United States. It operates through Terminals and Pipelines, Environmental Services, Truck Transportation, Propane and NGL Marketing and Distribution, Processing and Wellsite Fluids, and Marketing segments. The Terminals and Pipelines segment offers storage, terminalling, and pipeline services for crude oil, condensate, and refined products. It owns and operates storage terminals at Edmonton and Hardisty for aggregating and exporting oil and refined products; pipelines connected to the Hardisty Terminal; and injection stations located in the United States. The Environmental Services segment offers environmental and production services, such as emulsion hauling and treating, water hauling and disposal services, oilfield waste management, exploration support services, and accommodation facilities to the oil and gas industry. The Truck Transportation segment provides hauling services for crude oil, condensate, propane, butane, asphalt, sulfur, petroleum coke, gypsum, emulsion, waste water, and drilling fluids. The Propane and NGL Marketing and Distribution segment engages in the distribution of propane; NGL marketing business; and selling propane to oil and gas, industrial, and residential customers. The Processing and Wellsite Fluids segment processes crude oil and markets various products, such as road asphalt, roofing flux, frac oils, light and heavy straight run distillates, combined vacuum gas oil, oil based mud products, and tops. The Marketing segment purchases, sells, stores, and blends crude oil and condensate, as well as provides aggregation services to producers. The company was formerly known as Gibson Energy Holdings ULC and changed its name to Gibson Energy Inc. in April 2011. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -55.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 128.6%
Total Debt to Equity 128.6%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Return On Total Capital -6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Return On Equity -14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
EBITDA Margin 2.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin -3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Net Profit Margin -3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 24.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Payout Ratio -110%

GEI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GEI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4594 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gibson Energy Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gibson Energy Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GEI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for GEI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gibson Energy Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gibson Energy Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GEI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $496 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GEI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Gibson Energy Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gibson Energy Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GEI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GEI are equal to 39.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gibson Energy Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GEI is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1057 million for Gibson Energy Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 140.978 million for Gibson Energy Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gibson Energy Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.


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Stock chart of GEI Financial statements of GEI
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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