Intrinsic value of Gildan Activewear Inc. - GIL

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$37.38

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.38

 
Intrinsic value

$2.81

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GIL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.63
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  3,493
  3,772
  4,063
  4,365
  4,678
  5,005
  5,343
  5,696
  6,062
  6,444
  6,841
  7,254
  7,685
  8,135
  8,603
  9,093
  9,604
  10,137
  10,695
  11,278
  11,887
  12,525
  13,192
  13,891
  14,622
  15,388
  16,191
  17,032
  17,913
  18,837
  19,805
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,352
  3,607
  3,873
  4,150
  4,437
  4,736
  5,046
  5,369
  5,705
  6,055
  6,392
  6,772
  7,168
  7,581
  8,012
  8,462
  8,933
  9,424
  9,938
  10,475
  11,037
  11,625
  12,240
  12,885
  13,560
  14,267
  15,008
  15,785
  16,599
  17,452
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,991
  3,352
  3,607
  3,873
  4,150
  4,437
  4,736
  5,046
  5,369
  5,705
  6,055
  6,392
  6,772
  7,168
  7,581
  8,012
  8,462
  8,933
  9,424
  9,938
  10,475
  11,037
  11,625
  12,240
  12,885
  13,560
  14,267
  15,008
  15,785
  16,599
  17,452
Operating income, $m
  502
  421
  455
  491
  529
  567
  608
  649
  693
  738
  785
  862
  913
  967
  1,022
  1,080
  1,141
  1,204
  1,271
  1,340
  1,412
  1,488
  1,567
  1,650
  1,737
  1,828
  1,924
  2,024
  2,128
  2,238
  2,353
EBITDA, $m
  692
  628
  677
  727
  779
  833
  890
  949
  1,010
  1,073
  1,139
  1,208
  1,280
  1,355
  1,433
  1,514
  1,599
  1,688
  1,781
  1,878
  1,980
  2,086
  2,197
  2,313
  2,435
  2,563
  2,696
  2,836
  2,983
  3,137
  3,298
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
Earnings before tax, $m
  475
  393
  424
  456
  490
  525
  561
  599
  639
  680
  722
  794
  840
  889
  939
  992
  1,047
  1,104
  1,164
  1,227
  1,292
  1,361
  1,433
  1,508
  1,586
  1,669
  1,755
  1,846
  1,940
  2,040
  2,144
Tax expense, $m
  7
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  367
  387
  407
  428
  451
  474
  498
  524
  551
  579
Net income, $m
  468
  287
  309
  333
  358
  383
  410
  437
  466
  496
  527
  580
  613
  649
  686
  724
  764
  806
  850
  895
  943
  993
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,347
  1,416
  1,489
  1,565

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,040
  4,306
  4,638
  4,983
  5,341
  5,713
  6,100
  6,502
  6,920
  7,356
  7,809
  8,281
  8,773
  9,286
  9,821
  10,380
  10,963
  11,572
  12,208
  12,874
  13,570
  14,298
  15,060
  15,857
  16,692
  17,567
  18,483
  19,443
  20,449
  21,503
  22,609
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,988
  4,306
  4,638
  4,983
  5,341
  5,713
  6,100
  6,502
  6,920
  7,356
  7,809
  8,281
  8,773
  9,286
  9,821
  10,380
  10,963
  11,572
  12,208
  12,874
  13,570
  14,298
  15,060
  15,857
  16,692
  17,567
  18,483
  19,443
  20,449
  21,503
  22,609
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
  0.876
Average production assets, $m
  1,900
  2,052
  2,210
  2,374
  2,545
  2,722
  2,907
  3,098
  3,298
  3,505
  3,721
  3,946
  4,181
  4,425
  4,680
  4,946
  5,224
  5,515
  5,818
  6,135
  6,467
  6,813
  7,177
  7,557
  7,954
  8,371
  8,808
  9,265
  9,745
  10,247
  10,774
Working capital, $m
  1,492
  1,554
  1,674
  1,798
  1,928
  2,062
  2,201
  2,347
  2,498
  2,655
  2,818
  2,989
  3,166
  3,352
  3,545
  3,746
  3,957
  4,176
  4,406
  4,646
  4,897
  5,160
  5,435
  5,723
  6,024
  6,340
  6,671
  7,017
  7,380
  7,761
  8,160
Total debt, $m
  811
  905
  1,003
  1,105
  1,211
  1,320
  1,434
  1,553
  1,677
  1,805
  1,939
  2,078
  2,223
  2,374
  2,532
  2,697
  2,869
  3,049
  3,237
  3,433
  3,638
  3,853
  4,078
  4,313
  4,559
  4,817
  5,087
  5,371
  5,667
  5,978
  6,305
Total liabilities, $m
  1,176
  1,270
  1,368
  1,470
  1,576
  1,685
  1,799
  1,918
  2,042
  2,170
  2,304
  2,443
  2,588
  2,739
  2,897
  3,062
  3,234
  3,414
  3,602
  3,798
  4,003
  4,218
  4,443
  4,678
  4,924
  5,182
  5,452
  5,736
  6,032
  6,343
  6,670
Total equity, $m
  2,864
  3,036
  3,270
  3,513
  3,765
  4,028
  4,300
  4,584
  4,879
  5,186
  5,505
  5,838
  6,185
  6,547
  6,924
  7,318
  7,729
  8,158
  8,607
  9,076
  9,567
  10,080
  10,617
  11,179
  11,768
  12,384
  13,030
  13,707
  14,416
  15,160
  15,939
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,040
  4,306
  4,638
  4,983
  5,341
  5,713
  6,099
  6,502
  6,921
  7,356
  7,809
  8,281
  8,773
  9,286
  9,821
  10,380
  10,963
  11,572
  12,209
  12,874
  13,570
  14,298
  15,060
  15,857
  16,692
  17,566
  18,482
  19,443
  20,448
  21,503
  22,609
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.283
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705
  0.705

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  468
  287
  309
  333
  358
  383
  410
  437
  466
  496
  527
  580
  613
  649
  686
  724
  764
  806
  850
  895
  943
  993
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,218
  1,281
  1,347
  1,416
  1,489
  1,565
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  190
  207
  221
  236
  251
  266
  282
  299
  317
  335
  354
  346
  367
  388
  411
  434
  458
  484
  510
  538
  567
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  773
  813
  855
  899
  945
Funds from operations, $m
  771
  494
  531
  569
  608
  649
  692
  737
  783
  831
  881
  926
  980
  1,037
  1,096
  1,158
  1,222
  1,290
  1,360
  1,434
  1,511
  1,591
  1,675
  1,763
  1,856
  1,953
  2,054
  2,160
  2,271
  2,388
  2,510
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  170
  178
  185
  193
  202
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
  346
  363
  381
  399
Cash from operations, $m
  727
  413
  411
  444
  479
  515
  552
  591
  632
  674
  717
  755
  803
  852
  903
  956
  1,012
  1,070
  1,130
  1,193
  1,259
  1,328
  1,400
  1,476
  1,554
  1,637
  1,723
  1,814
  1,908
  2,007
  2,111
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -167
  -180
  -194
  -208
  -223
  -239
  -255
  -272
  -289
  -307
  -326
  -346
  -367
  -388
  -411
  -434
  -458
  -484
  -510
  -538
  -567
  -598
  -630
  -663
  -698
  -734
  -773
  -813
  -855
  -899
New CAPEX, $m
  -189
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -503
  -527
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -410
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -423
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -523
  -551
  -580
  -611
  -643
  -677
  -712
  -748
  -787
  -827
  -870
  -914
  -961
  -1,010
  -1,061
  -1,115
  -1,171
  -1,230
  -1,292
  -1,358
  -1,426
Free cash flow, $m
  317
  94
  73
  86
  100
  114
  129
  145
  161
  177
  194
  204
  222
  241
  260
  280
  300
  321
  343
  366
  390
  414
  440
  466
  494
  522
  552
  583
  616
  650
  685
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -101
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -530
  0
  63
  55
  47
  38
  29
  20
  11
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -233
  94
  161
  157
  153
  148
  143
  139
  134
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  83
  188
  171
  188
  206
  224
  243
  263
  284
  305
  328
  343
  367
  392
  418
  444
  472
  501
  531
  562
  595
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,012
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  93
  -224
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -362
  -377
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -449
  -469
  -491
  -513
  -537
  -562
  -589
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -709
  -743
  -779
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  10
  20
  30
  40
  51
  61
  72
  82
  93
  104
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  177
  190
  204
  218
  232
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  5
  9
  12
  14
  15
  16
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.3
  98.8
  98.3
  98.0
  97.8
  97.6
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5

Gildan Activewear Inc. manufactures and sells apparel products in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. It operates in two segments, Printwear and Branded Apparel. The Printwear segment designs, manufactures, sources, and distributes undecorated activewear products comprising T-shirts, fleece, and sport shirts under Gildan, Gildan Performance, Anvil, Comfort Colors, and New Balance brands. Its activewear products are used in various activities by individuals, including work and school uniforms and athletic team wear, and other purposes to convey individual, group, and team identity. The Branded Apparel segment designs, manufactures, sources, markets, and distributes branded family apparel, which includes athletic, casual, and dress socks, as well as underwear, activewear, sheer hosiery, legwear, and shapewear products. This segment markets its products under various brands, including Gildan, Gildan Platinum, Gold Toe, Smart Basics, G, PowerSox, Silver Toe, All Pro, Secret, Silks, Therapy Plus, Kushyfoot, and Secret Silky brands, as well as under licensing agreements under the Under Armour and Mossy Oak brands. Gildan Activewear Inc. serves wholesale distributors, mass-market retailers, department stores, national and regional chains, sports specialty stores, and price clubs. The company was formerly known as Textiles Gildan Inc. and changed its name to Gildan Activewear Inc. in March 1995. Gildan Activewear Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.4
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 16
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 28.3%
Total Debt to Equity 28.3%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Net Profit Margin 13.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Effective Tax Rate 1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

GIL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GIL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3493 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gildan Activewear Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Gildan Activewear Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GIL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GIL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gildan Activewear Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gildan Activewear Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GIL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GIL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gildan Activewear Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gildan Activewear Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GIL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GIL are equal to 54.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gildan Activewear Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GIL is equal to 41.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2864 million for Gildan Activewear Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 230.271 million for Gildan Activewear Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gildan Activewear Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.6 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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