Intrinsic value of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ - IAG

Previous Close

$53.22

  Intrinsic Value

$219.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+313%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$53.22

 
Intrinsic value

$219.55

 
Up/down potential

+313%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IAG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.50
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  9,534
  9,753
  10,004
  10,285
  10,597
  10,939
  11,312
  11,715
  12,150
  12,616
  13,115
  13,647
  14,214
  14,816
  15,455
  16,132
  16,849
  17,607
  18,408
  19,254
  20,147
  21,088
  22,080
  23,125
  24,226
  25,385
  26,606
  27,889
  29,240
  30,661
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,064
  7,226
  7,411
  7,618
  7,848
  8,101
  8,375
  8,673
  8,993
  9,337
  9,674
  10,067
  10,485
  10,929
  11,400
  11,900
  12,429
  12,988
  13,579
  14,203
  14,861
  15,556
  16,287
  17,058
  17,871
  18,726
  19,626
  20,573
  21,569
  22,617
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,733
  1,777
  1,821
  1,867
  1,913
  1,961
  2,010
  2,060
  2,112
  2,165
  2,219
  2,274
  2,331
  2,389
  2,449
  2,510
  2,573
  2,637
  2,703
  2,771
  2,840
  2,911
  2,984
  3,059
  3,135
  3,213
  3,294
  3,376
  3,460
  3,547
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,576
  8,797
  9,003
  9,232
  9,485
  9,761
  10,062
  10,385
  10,733
  11,105
  11,502
  11,893
  12,341
  12,816
  13,318
  13,849
  14,410
  15,002
  15,625
  16,282
  16,974
  17,701
  18,467
  19,271
  20,117
  21,006
  21,939
  22,920
  23,949
  25,029
  26,164
Operating income, $m
  771
  737
  751
  772
  800
  836
  878
  926
  982
  1,044
  1,114
  1,222
  1,306
  1,398
  1,498
  1,606
  1,722
  1,847
  1,982
  2,126
  2,280
  2,445
  2,621
  2,809
  3,008
  3,221
  3,446
  3,686
  3,941
  4,211
  4,497
EBITDA, $m
  882
  845
  861
  884
  915
  952
  997
  1,049
  1,107
  1,173
  1,247
  1,327
  1,416
  1,512
  1,617
  1,730
  1,852
  1,983
  2,124
  2,274
  2,435
  2,607
  2,791
  2,986
  3,194
  3,416
  3,651
  3,900
  4,165
  4,446
  4,743
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  35
  36
  78
  126
  180
  240
  306
  378
  455
  538
  628
  724
  826
  935
  1,051
  1,173
  1,303
  1,441
  1,587
  1,741
  1,903
  2,075
  2,255
  2,446
  2,647
  2,858
  3,081
  3,315
  3,562
  3,821
Earnings before tax, $m
  694
  702
  715
  694
  674
  655
  637
  620
  604
  589
  575
  594
  582
  572
  563
  555
  549
  544
  541
  539
  540
  542
  547
  553
  563
  574
  588
  605
  626
  649
  676
Tax expense, $m
  146
  189
  193
  187
  182
  177
  172
  167
  163
  159
  155
  160
  157
  154
  152
  150
  148
  147
  146
  146
  146
  146
  148
  149
  152
  155
  159
  163
  169
  175
  182
Net income, $m
  548
  512
  522
  507
  492
  478
  465
  453
  441
  430
  420
  434
  425
  417
  411
  405
  401
  397
  395
  394
  394
  396
  399
  404
  411
  419
  430
  442
  457
  474
  493

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  57,050
  58,134
  59,471
  60,999
  62,715
  64,617
  66,703
  68,974
  71,433
  74,083
  76,926
  79,967
  83,213
  86,668
  90,341
  94,238
  98,368
  102,739
  107,362
  112,247
  117,404
  122,846
  128,585
  134,635
  141,009
  147,722
  154,789
  162,229
  170,057
  178,293
  186,956
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  57,050
  58,134
  59,471
  60,999
  62,715
  64,617
  66,703
  68,974
  71,433
  74,083
  76,926
  79,967
  83,213
  86,668
  90,341
  94,238
  98,368
  102,739
  107,362
  112,247
  117,404
  122,846
  128,585
  134,635
  141,009
  147,722
  154,789
  162,229
  170,057
  178,293
  186,956
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
  0.164
Average production assets, $m
  694
  706
  722
  740
  761
  784
  810
  837
  867
  899
  934
  970
  1,010
  1,052
  1,096
  1,144
  1,194
  1,247
  1,303
  1,362
  1,425
  1,491
  1,561
  1,634
  1,711
  1,793
  1,879
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
  2,269
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  995
  1,030
  2,234
  3,609
  5,154
  6,865
  8,742
  10,787
  13,000
  15,384
  17,943
  20,681
  23,601
  26,712
  30,017
  33,524
  37,241
  41,175
  45,336
  49,732
  54,374
  59,272
  64,437
  69,881
  75,618
  81,659
  88,021
  94,716
  101,762
  109,174
  116,970
Total liabilities, $m
  52,285
  52,320
  53,524
  54,899
  56,444
  58,155
  60,032
  62,077
  64,290
  66,674
  69,233
  71,971
  74,891
  78,002
  81,307
  84,814
  88,531
  92,465
  96,626
  101,022
  105,664
  110,562
  115,727
  121,171
  126,908
  132,949
  139,311
  146,006
  153,052
  160,464
  168,260
Total equity, $m
  4,765
  5,813
  5,947
  6,100
  6,272
  6,462
  6,670
  6,897
  7,143
  7,408
  7,693
  7,997
  8,321
  8,667
  9,034
  9,424
  9,837
  10,274
  10,736
  11,225
  11,740
  12,285
  12,859
  13,463
  14,101
  14,772
  15,479
  16,223
  17,006
  17,829
  18,696
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  57,050
  58,133
  59,471
  60,999
  62,716
  64,617
  66,702
  68,974
  71,433
  74,082
  76,926
  79,968
  83,212
  86,669
  90,341
  94,238
  98,368
  102,739
  107,362
  112,247
  117,404
  122,847
  128,586
  134,634
  141,009
  147,721
  154,790
  162,229
  170,058
  178,293
  186,956
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.209
  0.180
  0.380
  0.590
  0.820
  1.060
  1.310
  1.560
  1.820
  2.080
  2.330
  2.590
  2.840
  3.080
  3.320
  3.560
  3.790
  4.010
  4.220
  4.430
  4.630
  4.820
  5.010
  5.190
  5.360
  5.530
  5.690
  5.840
  5.980
  6.120
  6.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.084
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  548
  512
  522
  507
  492
  478
  465
  453
  441
  430
  420
  434
  425
  417
  411
  405
  401
  397
  395
  394
  394
  396
  399
  404
  411
  419
  430
  442
  457
  474
  493
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  108
  110
  112
  114
  117
  119
  122
  126
  129
  133
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
Funds from operations, $m
  -844
  620
  632
  618
  606
  595
  585
  575
  567
  559
  553
  539
  535
  532
  530
  529
  530
  533
  536
  542
  549
  558
  569
  582
  597
  614
  634
  656
  681
  709
  740
Change in working capital, $m
  -748
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -96
  620
  632
  618
  606
  595
  585
  575
  567
  559
  553
  539
  535
  532
  530
  529
  530
  533
  536
  542
  549
  558
  569
  582
  597
  614
  634
  656
  681
  709
  740
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -112
  -87
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -281
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -340
Free cash flow, $m
  -208
  533
  539
  521
  505
  489
  474
  460
  446
  433
  421
  401
  390
  380
  371
  363
  356
  350
  345
  341
  338
  337
  337
  339
  342
  346
  353
  362
  372
  385
  400
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  148
  35
  1,203
  1,376
  1,544
  1,711
  1,878
  2,045
  2,213
  2,384
  2,559
  2,737
  2,921
  3,110
  3,305
  3,507
  3,717
  3,934
  4,161
  4,396
  4,642
  4,898
  5,165
  5,444
  5,736
  6,042
  6,361
  6,695
  7,046
  7,412
  7,796
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  182
  536
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  12
  40
  68
  95
  122
  148
  175
  201
  227
  252
  277
  302
  326
  350
  373
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  298
  571
  1,203
  1,376
  1,544
  1,711
  1,878
  2,045
  2,213
  2,384
  2,559
  2,737
  2,921
  3,110
  3,305
  3,507
  3,729
  3,974
  4,229
  4,491
  4,764
  5,046
  5,340
  5,645
  5,963
  6,294
  6,638
  6,997
  7,372
  7,762
  8,169
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  1,104
  1,742
  1,897
  2,049
  2,200
  2,351
  2,504
  2,659
  2,817
  2,979
  3,138
  3,311
  3,490
  3,676
  3,870
  4,085
  4,324
  4,573
  4,832
  5,102
  5,383
  5,677
  5,984
  6,305
  6,640
  6,991
  7,359
  7,744
  8,147
  8,569
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -581
  -1,048
  -134
  -153
  -172
  -190
  -209
  -227
  -246
  -265
  -284
  -304
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -462
  -488
  -516
  -544
  -574
  -605
  -637
  -671
  -707
  -744
  -783
  -824
  -866
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  56
  1,608
  1,744
  1,878
  2,010
  2,143
  2,277
  2,413
  2,552
  2,695
  2,834
  2,986
  3,145
  3,309
  3,481
  3,672
  3,887
  4,111
  4,343
  4,586
  4,839
  5,103
  5,379
  5,667
  5,969
  6,285
  6,615
  6,961
  7,323
  7,703
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  54
  1,472
  1,518
  1,546
  1,558
  1,555
  1,538
  1,508
  1,466
  1,413
  1,346
  1,274
  1,196
  1,111
  1,022
  933
  846
  757
  669
  583
  501
  423
  353
  289
  232
  183
  142
  108
  80
  58
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.4
  91.3
  91.0
  90.5
  89.8
  89.0
  88.0
  87.0
  85.9
  84.7
  83.4
  82.1
  80.8
  79.5
  78.1
  76.8

Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. is a Canada-based company, which offers a range of life and health insurance products, savings and retirement plans, mutual funds, securities, auto and home insurance, mortgage loans, and other financial products and services. The Company's segments include Individual Insurance, which includes life, health, disability and mortgage insurance products; Individual Wealth Management, which includes individual products and services for savings plans, retirement funds and segregated funds, as well as securities brokerage, trust operations and mutual funds; Group Insurance, which includes life, health, accidental death and dismemberment, creditor insurance, replacement warranties and extended warranties, and specialized products for special markets solutions; Group Savings and Retirement, which includes retirement funds and segregated funds, and Other, which includes auto and home insurance products, asset management and financing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ (IAG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -58.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.9%
Total Debt to Equity 20.9%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Effective Tax Rate 21%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Payout Ratio 26.6%

IAG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IAG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9347 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IAG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IAG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IAG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1691 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IAG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IAG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IAG are equal to 7.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IAG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4765 million for Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 106.62 million for Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financ at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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Financial statements of IAG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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