Intrinsic value of Intact Financial Corporation - IFC

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$94.77

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$94.77

 
Intrinsic value

$116.95

 
Up/down potential

+23%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IFC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.08
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  0
  8,685
  8,955
  9,250
  9,571
  9,918
  10,291
  10,690
  11,118
  11,573
  12,057
  12,572
  13,118
  13,696
  14,308
  14,954
  15,637
  16,358
  17,119
  17,921
  18,766
  19,657
  20,594
  21,581
  22,620
  23,713
  24,863
  26,073
  27,344
  28,682
  30,087
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,734
  7,970
  8,229
  8,509
  8,812
  9,138
  9,488
  9,861
  10,259
  10,683
  10,993
  11,470
  11,975
  12,510
  13,076
  13,673
  14,303
  14,968
  15,670
  16,409
  17,187
  18,007
  18,870
  19,779
  20,734
  21,740
  22,797
  23,909
  25,079
  26,308
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,754
  7,734
  7,970
  8,229
  8,509
  8,812
  9,138
  9,488
  9,861
  10,259
  10,683
  10,993
  11,470
  11,975
  12,510
  13,076
  13,673
  14,303
  14,968
  15,670
  16,409
  17,187
  18,007
  18,870
  19,779
  20,734
  21,740
  22,797
  23,909
  25,079
  26,308
Operating income, $m
  686
  951
  985
  1,022
  1,062
  1,106
  1,152
  1,203
  1,256
  1,314
  1,374
  1,579
  1,648
  1,721
  1,797
  1,879
  1,964
  2,055
  2,151
  2,251
  2,357
  2,469
  2,587
  2,711
  2,842
  2,979
  3,123
  3,275
  3,435
  3,603
  3,780
EBITDA, $m
  773
  1,135
  1,171
  1,209
  1,251
  1,296
  1,345
  1,397
  1,453
  1,513
  1,576
  1,643
  1,715
  1,790
  1,870
  1,955
  2,044
  2,138
  2,238
  2,343
  2,453
  2,570
  2,692
  2,821
  2,957
  3,100
  3,250
  3,408
  3,575
  3,749
  3,933
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  49
  66
  85
  106
  128
  152
  178
  207
  236
  268
  302
  338
  377
  417
  460
  505
  553
  604
  657
  713
  773
  835
  901
  970
  1,043
  1,119
  1,200
  1,285
  1,374
  1,468
Earnings before tax, $m
  686
  902
  919
  937
  957
  978
  1,000
  1,024
  1,050
  1,077
  1,106
  1,277
  1,310
  1,344
  1,380
  1,419
  1,459
  1,502
  1,547
  1,594
  1,644
  1,697
  1,752
  1,810
  1,872
  1,936
  2,004
  2,075
  2,150
  2,229
  2,312
Tax expense, $m
  145
  244
  248
  253
  258
  264
  270
  277
  283
  291
  299
  345
  354
  363
  373
  383
  394
  405
  418
  430
  444
  458
  473
  489
  505
  523
  541
  560
  581
  602
  624
Net income, $m
  541
  658
  671
  684
  698
  714
  730
  748
  766
  786
  807
  932
  956
  981
  1,008
  1,036
  1,065
  1,096
  1,129
  1,164
  1,200
  1,239
  1,279
  1,322
  1,366
  1,413
  1,463
  1,515
  1,570
  1,627
  1,688

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22,991
  23,664
  24,400
  25,205
  26,080
  27,024
  28,040
  29,129
  30,293
  31,534
  32,854
  34,256
  35,743
  37,319
  38,985
  40,747
  42,608
  44,573
  46,646
  48,831
  51,134
  53,560
  56,115
  58,805
  61,635
  64,614
  67,747
  71,043
  74,508
  78,152
  81,982
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22,991
  23,664
  24,400
  25,205
  26,080
  27,024
  28,040
  29,129
  30,293
  31,534
  32,854
  34,256
  35,743
  37,319
  38,985
  40,747
  42,608
  44,573
  46,646
  48,831
  51,134
  53,560
  56,115
  58,805
  61,635
  64,614
  67,747
  71,043
  74,508
  78,152
  81,982
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
  0.367
Average production assets, $m
  1,294
  1,329
  1,370
  1,415
  1,464
  1,517
  1,574
  1,636
  1,701
  1,771
  1,845
  1,924
  2,007
  2,095
  2,189
  2,288
  2,393
  2,503
  2,619
  2,742
  2,871
  3,007
  3,151
  3,302
  3,461
  3,628
  3,804
  3,989
  4,184
  4,388
  4,603
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  1,393
  1,883
  2,424
  3,016
  3,658
  4,353
  5,100
  5,900
  6,756
  7,668
  8,638
  9,668
  10,761
  11,919
  13,144
  14,439
  15,807
  17,251
  18,775
  20,381
  22,073
  23,857
  25,734
  27,711
  29,792
  31,981
  34,284
  36,706
  39,253
  41,931
  44,747
Total liabilities, $m
  16,903
  17,393
  17,934
  18,526
  19,168
  19,863
  20,610
  21,410
  22,266
  23,178
  24,148
  25,178
  26,271
  27,429
  28,654
  29,949
  31,317
  32,761
  34,285
  35,891
  37,583
  39,367
  41,244
  43,221
  45,302
  47,491
  49,794
  52,216
  54,763
  57,441
  60,257
Total equity, $m
  6,088
  6,271
  6,466
  6,679
  6,911
  7,161
  7,431
  7,719
  8,028
  8,357
  8,706
  9,078
  9,472
  9,889
  10,331
  10,798
  11,291
  11,812
  12,361
  12,940
  13,550
  14,193
  14,870
  15,583
  16,333
  17,123
  17,953
  18,826
  19,745
  20,710
  21,725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  22,991
  23,664
  24,400
  25,205
  26,079
  27,024
  28,041
  29,129
  30,294
  31,535
  32,854
  34,256
  35,743
  37,318
  38,985
  40,747
  42,608
  44,573
  46,646
  48,831
  51,133
  53,560
  56,114
  58,804
  61,635
  64,614
  67,747
  71,042
  74,508
  78,151
  81,982
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.229
  0.300
  0.370
  0.450
  0.530
  0.610
  0.690
  0.760
  0.840
  0.920
  0.990
  1.070
  1.140
  1.210
  1.270
  1.340
  1.400
  1.460
  1.520
  1.570
  1.630
  1.680
  1.730
  1.780
  1.820
  1.870
  1.910
  1.950
  1.990
  2.020
  2.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265
  0.265

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  541
  658
  671
  684
  698
  714
  730
  748
  766
  786
  807
  932
  956
  981
  1,008
  1,036
  1,065
  1,096
  1,129
  1,164
  1,200
  1,239
  1,279
  1,322
  1,366
  1,413
  1,463
  1,515
  1,570
  1,627
  1,688
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  185
  186
  187
  189
  191
  193
  195
  197
  199
  202
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
Funds from operations, $m
  1,043
  843
  857
  871
  887
  905
  923
  942
  963
  986
  1,009
  996
  1,023
  1,051
  1,081
  1,112
  1,145
  1,180
  1,216
  1,255
  1,296
  1,339
  1,384
  1,432
  1,482
  1,534
  1,590
  1,648
  1,709
  1,774
  1,841
Change in working capital, $m
  118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  925
  852
  857
  871
  887
  905
  923
  942
  963
  986
  1,009
  996
  1,023
  1,051
  1,081
  1,112
  1,145
  1,180
  1,216
  1,255
  1,296
  1,339
  1,384
  1,432
  1,482
  1,534
  1,590
  1,648
  1,709
  1,774
  1,841
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -120
  -35
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -759
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -232
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -361
Free cash flow, $m
  166
  773
  771
  781
  791
  803
  815
  829
  843
  859
  876
  856
  875
  896
  917
  940
  964
  990
  1,017
  1,045
  1,075
  1,107
  1,140
  1,176
  1,213
  1,252
  1,293
  1,336
  1,382
  1,430
  1,480
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  248
  490
  541
  592
  643
  694
  747
  800
  855
  912
  970
  1,031
  1,093
  1,158
  1,225
  1,295
  1,368
  1,444
  1,523
  1,606
  1,693
  1,783
  1,878
  1,977
  2,081
  2,189
  2,303
  2,422
  2,547
  2,678
  2,815
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  185
  490
  541
  592
  643
  694
  747
  800
  855
  912
  970
  1,031
  1,093
  1,158
  1,225
  1,295
  1,368
  1,444
  1,523
  1,606
  1,693
  1,783
  1,878
  1,977
  2,081
  2,189
  2,303
  2,422
  2,547
  2,678
  2,815
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  351
  1,263
  1,312
  1,372
  1,434
  1,497
  1,562
  1,629
  1,699
  1,771
  1,846
  1,887
  1,968
  2,053
  2,142
  2,235
  2,332
  2,434
  2,540
  2,651
  2,768
  2,890
  3,018
  3,153
  3,293
  3,441
  3,596
  3,758
  3,929
  4,108
  4,295
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -364
  -183
  -195
  -213
  -232
  -250
  -269
  -289
  -308
  -329
  -350
  -372
  -394
  -417
  -442
  -467
  -493
  -521
  -549
  -579
  -610
  -643
  -677
  -713
  -750
  -789
  -830
  -873
  -918
  -966
  -1,015
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,080
  1,117
  1,159
  1,202
  1,247
  1,293
  1,341
  1,391
  1,442
  1,497
  1,515
  1,574
  1,636
  1,700
  1,768
  1,839
  1,913
  1,991
  2,072
  2,158
  2,247
  2,341
  2,440
  2,543
  2,652
  2,766
  2,885
  3,010
  3,142
  3,280
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,036
  1,023
  1,009
  990
  966
  938
  906
  869
  829
  785
  720
  672
  622
  571
  519
  467
  416
  367
  319
  274
  232
  194
  160
  130
  103
  81
  62
  47
  34
  25
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Intact Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products for individuals and businesses in Canada. It principally underwrites automobile, home, and commercial property and casualty insurance contracts. The company distributes its products through a network of insurance brokers, as well as sells its products directly to consumers through call centers and the Internet. Intact Financial Corporation offers its products and services under the Intact Insurance, belairdirect, Grey Power, and Novex Group Insurance brands. The company was formerly known as ING Canada Inc. and changed its name to Intact Financial Corporation in 2009. Intact Financial Corporation was founded in 1809 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intact Financial Corporation (IFC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 22.9%
Total Debt to Equity 22.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Payout Ratio 59.9%

IFC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IFC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8440 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intact Financial Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Intact Financial Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IFC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IFC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intact Financial Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intact Financial Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IFC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IFC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Intact Financial Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intact Financial Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IFC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IFC are equal to 15.3%.

Life of production assets of 30.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intact Financial Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IFC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6088 million for Intact Financial Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.792 million for Intact Financial Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intact Financial Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.5 billion.


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Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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