Intrinsic value of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. - INE

Previous Close

$14.30

  Intrinsic Value

$1.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

  Value-price divergence*

-63%

Previous close

$14.30

 
Intrinsic value

$1.07

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-63%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.62
  21.00
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
Revenue, $m
  293
  355
  423
  499
  583
  673
  770
  874
  985
  1,102
  1,225
  1,355
  1,490
  1,632
  1,780
  1,934
  2,095
  2,262
  2,435
  2,615
  2,803
  2,997
  3,200
  3,410
  3,629
  3,857
  4,094
  4,341
  4,598
  4,867
  5,147
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  269
  321
  378
  441
  509
  582
  661
  744
  833
  926
  1,023
  1,126
  1,233
  1,345
  1,461
  1,582
  1,708
  1,839
  1,975
  2,117
  2,264
  2,417
  2,575
  2,741
  2,913
  3,092
  3,278
  3,473
  3,676
  3,887
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  167
  269
  321
  378
  441
  509
  582
  661
  744
  833
  926
  1,023
  1,126
  1,233
  1,345
  1,461
  1,582
  1,708
  1,839
  1,975
  2,117
  2,264
  2,417
  2,575
  2,741
  2,913
  3,092
  3,278
  3,473
  3,676
  3,887
Operating income, $m
  125
  86
  103
  121
  142
  164
  188
  213
  240
  269
  299
  332
  365
  399
  436
  473
  513
  553
  596
  640
  686
  734
  783
  835
  888
  944
  1,002
  1,062
  1,125
  1,191
  1,260
EBITDA, $m
  216
  206
  245
  290
  338
  390
  446
  507
  571
  639
  710
  785
  864
  946
  1,032
  1,122
  1,215
  1,311
  1,412
  1,516
  1,625
  1,738
  1,855
  1,977
  2,104
  2,236
  2,374
  2,517
  2,666
  2,822
  2,984
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  93
  114
  140
  167
  198
  231
  266
  304
  345
  388
  433
  480
  530
  582
  636
  692
  751
  812
  875
  941
  1,010
  1,081
  1,155
  1,232
  1,312
  1,395
  1,482
  1,572
  1,666
  1,764
Earnings before tax, $m
  37
  -7
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -101
  -115
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -320
  -343
  -368
  -393
  -419
  -447
  -475
  -505
Tax expense, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  36
  -7
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -101
  -115
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -320
  -343
  -368
  -393
  -419
  -447
  -475
  -505

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,604
  4,271
  5,100
  6,016
  7,019
  8,106
  9,278
  10,530
  11,863
  13,273
  14,759
  16,321
  17,956
  19,665
  21,448
  23,306
  25,239
  27,249
  29,339
  31,510
  33,767
  36,112
  38,550
  41,084
  43,721
  46,465
  49,322
  52,298
  55,400
  58,634
  62,007
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,548
  4,271
  5,100
  6,016
  7,019
  8,106
  9,278
  10,530
  11,863
  13,273
  14,759
  16,321
  17,956
  19,665
  21,448
  23,306
  25,239
  27,249
  29,339
  31,510
  33,767
  36,112
  38,550
  41,084
  43,721
  46,465
  49,322
  52,298
  55,400
  58,634
  62,007
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
  0.083
Average production assets, $m
  2,946
  3,564
  4,256
  5,020
  5,856
  6,764
  7,741
  8,786
  9,898
  11,075
  12,315
  13,618
  14,982
  16,409
  17,896
  19,446
  21,059
  22,737
  24,480
  26,292
  28,175
  30,132
  32,166
  34,281
  36,481
  38,771
  41,154
  43,638
  46,226
  48,924
  51,739
Working capital, $m
  32
  91
  108
  128
  149
  172
  197
  224
  252
  282
  314
  347
  382
  418
  456
  495
  536
  579
  623
  670
  717
  767
  819
  873
  929
  987
  1,048
  1,111
  1,177
  1,246
  1,318
Total debt, $m
  2,701
  3,271
  3,990
  4,784
  5,653
  6,596
  7,612
  8,698
  9,853
  11,076
  12,364
  13,718
  15,136
  16,618
  18,164
  19,774
  21,450
  23,193
  25,005
  26,887
  28,844
  30,877
  32,990
  35,188
  37,474
  39,853
  42,330
  44,911
  47,600
  50,403
  53,328
Total liabilities, $m
  3,134
  3,703
  4,422
  5,216
  6,085
  7,028
  8,044
  9,130
  10,285
  11,508
  12,796
  14,150
  15,568
  17,050
  18,596
  20,206
  21,882
  23,625
  25,437
  27,319
  29,276
  31,309
  33,422
  35,620
  37,906
  40,285
  42,762
  45,343
  48,032
  50,835
  53,760
Total equity, $m
  471
  568
  678
  800
  933
  1,078
  1,234
  1,401
  1,578
  1,765
  1,963
  2,171
  2,388
  2,615
  2,853
  3,100
  3,357
  3,624
  3,902
  4,191
  4,491
  4,803
  5,127
  5,464
  5,815
  6,180
  6,560
  6,956
  7,368
  7,798
  8,247
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,605
  4,271
  5,100
  6,016
  7,018
  8,106
  9,278
  10,531
  11,863
  13,273
  14,759
  16,321
  17,956
  19,665
  21,449
  23,306
  25,239
  27,249
  29,339
  31,510
  33,767
  36,112
  38,549
  41,084
  43,721
  46,465
  49,322
  52,299
  55,400
  58,633
  62,007
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.735
  5.760
  5.880
  5.980
  6.060
  6.120
  6.170
  6.210
  6.240
  6.270
  6.300
  6.320
  6.340
  6.350
  6.370
  6.380
  6.390
  6.400
  6.410
  6.420
  6.420
  6.430
  6.430
  6.440
  6.440
  6.450
  6.450
  6.460
  6.460
  6.460
  6.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.117
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  -7
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -101
  -115
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -197
  -216
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -320
  -343
  -368
  -393
  -419
  -447
  -475
  -505
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  91
  120
  143
  168
  196
  226
  259
  294
  331
  370
  411
  454
  499
  547
  597
  648
  702
  758
  816
  876
  939
  1,004
  1,072
  1,143
  1,216
  1,292
  1,372
  1,455
  1,541
  1,631
  1,725
Funds from operations, $m
  -61
  113
  131
  150
  170
  192
  216
  240
  266
  294
  323
  353
  384
  417
  451
  486
  523
  561
  600
  641
  684
  728
  775
  823
  873
  925
  979
  1,035
  1,094
  1,156
  1,220
Change in working capital, $m
  -138
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
Cash from operations, $m
  77
  97
  113
  130
  149
  169
  191
  214
  238
  264
  291
  320
  349
  380
  413
  446
  481
  518
  556
  595
  636
  679
  723
  769
  817
  866
  918
  972
  1,028
  1,087
  1,148
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -98
  -119
  -142
  -167
  -195
  -225
  -258
  -293
  -330
  -369
  -411
  -454
  -499
  -547
  -597
  -648
  -702
  -758
  -816
  -876
  -939
  -1,004
  -1,072
  -1,143
  -1,216
  -1,292
  -1,372
  -1,455
  -1,541
  -1,631
New CAPEX, $m
  -366
  -619
  -691
  -764
  -837
  -908
  -977
  -1,045
  -1,112
  -1,177
  -1,240
  -1,303
  -1,365
  -1,426
  -1,488
  -1,550
  -1,613
  -1,677
  -1,744
  -1,812
  -1,883
  -1,957
  -2,034
  -2,115
  -2,200
  -2,290
  -2,384
  -2,483
  -2,588
  -2,698
  -2,815
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -255
  -717
  -810
  -906
  -1,004
  -1,103
  -1,202
  -1,303
  -1,405
  -1,507
  -1,609
  -1,714
  -1,819
  -1,925
  -2,035
  -2,147
  -2,261
  -2,379
  -2,502
  -2,628
  -2,759
  -2,896
  -3,038
  -3,187
  -3,343
  -3,506
  -3,676
  -3,855
  -4,043
  -4,239
  -4,446
Free cash flow, $m
  -178
  -620
  -697
  -776
  -855
  -934
  -1,012
  -1,090
  -1,166
  -1,243
  -1,318
  -1,394
  -1,469
  -1,545
  -1,622
  -1,700
  -1,780
  -1,861
  -1,946
  -2,033
  -2,123
  -2,217
  -2,316
  -2,419
  -2,526
  -2,639
  -2,758
  -2,883
  -3,014
  -3,152
  -3,297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  215
  626
  718
  794
  869
  943
  1,015
  1,086
  1,155
  1,223
  1,289
  1,354
  1,418
  1,482
  1,546
  1,610
  1,676
  1,743
  1,812
  1,883
  1,956
  2,033
  2,114
  2,198
  2,286
  2,379
  2,477
  2,580
  2,689
  2,804
  2,925
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  51
  104
  122
  140
  159
  179
  199
  220
  241
  264
  286
  309
  333
  358
  383
  409
  437
  465
  494
  524
  555
  588
  622
  657
  694
  733
  773
  815
  859
  905
  953
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  265
  730
  840
  934
  1,028
  1,122
  1,214
  1,306
  1,396
  1,487
  1,575
  1,663
  1,751
  1,840
  1,929
  2,019
  2,113
  2,208
  2,306
  2,407
  2,511
  2,621
  2,736
  2,855
  2,980
  3,112
  3,250
  3,395
  3,548
  3,709
  3,878
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  111
  143
  159
  173
  188
  202
  216
  230
  244
  257
  269
  282
  294
  307
  320
  333
  346
  360
  374
  389
  404
  420
  436
  454
  472
  492
  512
  534
  557
  581
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -104
  -122
  -140
  -159
  -179
  -199
  -220
  -241
  -264
  -286
  -309
  -333
  -358
  -383
  -409
  -437
  -465
  -494
  -524
  -555
  -588
  -622
  -657
  -694
  -733
  -773
  -815
  -859
  -905
  -953
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  7
  22
  18
  14
  9
  3
  -3
  -11
  -20
  -30
  -40
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -134
  -150
  -167
  -184
  -202
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -281
  -303
  -325
  -348
  -372
Discount rate, %
 
  12.70
  13.34
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.69
  21.72
  22.81
  23.95
  25.15
  26.40
  27.72
  29.11
  30.56
  32.09
  33.70
  35.38
  37.15
  39.01
  40.96
  43.01
  45.16
  47.41
  49.79
  52.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  6
  17
  12
  8
  5
  1
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.7
  88.0
  82.8
  78.0
  73.8
  69.8
  66.2
  62.9
  59.9
  57.1
  54.5
  52.0
  49.8
  47.6
  45.6
  43.8
  42.0
  40.3
  38.7
  37.2
  35.8
  34.5
  33.2
  31.9
  30.7
  29.6
  28.5
  27.5
  26.5
  25.6

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. operates as an independent renewable power producer in North America and France. It develops, owns, and operates run-of-river hydroelectric facilities, wind farms, and solar photovoltaic farms. The company operates through four segments: Hydroelectric Generation, Wind Power Generation, Solar Power Generation, and Site Development. It holds interests in 45 operating facilities with an aggregate net installed capacity of 834 MW, including 29 hydroelectric facilities, 15 wind farms, and 1 solar farm; 3 projects under development with an aggregate net installed capacity of 146 MW; and prospective projects with an aggregate net capacity totaling 3,280 MW. The company has operations in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, Canada, as well as in Idaho, the United States. Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Longueuil, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (INE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 552.4%
Total Debt to Equity 573.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.3%
EBITDA Margin 71.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Operating Margin 43%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Net Profit Margin 12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 13.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 194.4%

INE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $293 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.7%, whose default value for INE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Innergex Renewable Energy Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INE are equal to 1005.3%.

Life of production assets of 32.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INE is equal to 25.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $471 million for Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 108.201 million for Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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Stock chart of INE Financial statements of INE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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