Intrinsic value of Keyera Corp. - KEY

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$38.44

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$38.44

 
Intrinsic value

$2.40

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.48
  11.70
  11.03
  10.43
  9.88
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  2,509
  2,803
  3,112
  3,436
  3,776
  4,131
  4,500
  4,886
  5,287
  5,703
  6,137
  6,587
  7,055
  7,541
  8,046
  8,572
  9,119
  9,688
  10,281
  10,898
  11,542
  12,213
  12,913
  13,644
  14,407
  15,204
  16,038
  16,909
  17,820
  18,774
  19,772
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,466
  2,737
  3,022
  3,320
  3,631
  3,956
  4,294
  4,646
  5,012
  5,392
  5,782
  6,193
  6,620
  7,063
  7,525
  8,005
  8,505
  9,025
  9,567
  10,132
  10,721
  11,336
  11,977
  12,647
  13,347
  14,079
  14,843
  15,643
  16,480
  17,356
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,202
  2,466
  2,737
  3,022
  3,320
  3,631
  3,956
  4,294
  4,646
  5,012
  5,392
  5,782
  6,193
  6,620
  7,063
  7,525
  8,005
  8,505
  9,025
  9,567
  10,132
  10,721
  11,336
  11,977
  12,647
  13,347
  14,079
  14,843
  15,643
  16,480
  17,356
Operating income, $m
  307
  337
  375
  414
  456
  499
  544
  591
  640
  691
  744
  805
  862
  921
  983
  1,047
  1,114
  1,183
  1,256
  1,331
  1,410
  1,492
  1,577
  1,667
  1,760
  1,857
  1,959
  2,065
  2,177
  2,293
  2,415
EBITDA, $m
  479
  532
  591
  652
  717
  784
  854
  928
  1,004
  1,083
  1,165
  1,250
  1,339
  1,432
  1,528
  1,627
  1,731
  1,839
  1,952
  2,069
  2,191
  2,319
  2,451
  2,590
  2,735
  2,886
  3,045
  3,210
  3,383
  3,564
  3,754
Interest expense (income), $m
  84
  86
  104
  123
  143
  164
  186
  209
  232
  257
  283
  310
  337
  366
  396
  427
  460
  494
  529
  565
  603
  643
  685
  728
  773
  820
  869
  921
  974
  1,031
  1,089
Earnings before tax, $m
  307
  251
  271
  291
  313
  335
  359
  383
  408
  434
  461
  495
  524
  555
  587
  620
  654
  690
  727
  766
  806
  849
  893
  939
  987
  1,037
  1,090
  1,145
  1,202
  1,263
  1,326
Tax expense, $m
  90
  68
  73
  79
  84
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  358
Net income, $m
  217
  183
  198
  213
  228
  245
  262
  279
  298
  317
  337
  361
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  652
  685
  721
  757
  796
  836
  878
  922
  968

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,957
  5,517
  6,125
  6,764
  7,433
  8,131
  8,859
  9,618
  10,407
  11,227
  12,080
  12,966
  13,887
  14,844
  15,839
  16,874
  17,950
  19,071
  20,237
  21,453
  22,720
  24,041
  25,419
  26,858
  28,360
  29,930
  31,570
  33,285
  35,079
  36,956
  38,920
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,941
  5,517
  6,125
  6,764
  7,433
  8,131
  8,859
  9,618
  10,407
  11,227
  12,080
  12,966
  13,887
  14,844
  15,839
  16,874
  17,950
  19,071
  20,237
  21,453
  22,720
  24,041
  25,419
  26,858
  28,360
  29,930
  31,570
  33,285
  35,079
  36,956
  38,920
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
Average production assets, $m
  3,906
  4,364
  4,845
  5,350
  5,879
  6,431
  7,007
  7,607
  8,231
  8,880
  9,555
  10,256
  10,984
  11,741
  12,528
  13,347
  14,198
  15,084
  16,007
  16,968
  17,970
  19,015
  20,105
  21,243
  22,432
  23,673
  24,970
  26,327
  27,746
  29,231
  30,784
Working capital, $m
  46
  101
  112
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  190
  205
  221
  237
  254
  271
  290
  309
  328
  349
  370
  392
  415
  440
  465
  491
  519
  547
  577
  609
  642
  676
  712
Total debt, $m
  1,732
  2,076
  2,458
  2,858
  3,277
  3,715
  4,172
  4,647
  5,142
  5,656
  6,191
  6,747
  7,324
  7,924
  8,548
  9,197
  9,872
  10,574
  11,306
  12,068
  12,862
  13,691
  14,555
  15,457
  16,399
  17,383
  18,411
  19,487
  20,612
  21,788
  23,020
Total liabilities, $m
  3,115
  3,459
  3,841
  4,241
  4,660
  5,098
  5,555
  6,030
  6,525
  7,039
  7,574
  8,130
  8,707
  9,307
  9,931
  10,580
  11,255
  11,957
  12,689
  13,451
  14,245
  15,074
  15,938
  16,840
  17,782
  18,766
  19,794
  20,870
  21,995
  23,171
  24,403
Total equity, $m
  1,842
  2,058
  2,285
  2,523
  2,772
  3,033
  3,304
  3,587
  3,882
  4,188
  4,506
  4,836
  5,180
  5,537
  5,908
  6,294
  6,696
  7,113
  7,549
  8,002
  8,474
  8,967
  9,481
  10,018
  10,578
  11,164
  11,776
  12,415
  13,085
  13,785
  14,517
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,957
  5,517
  6,126
  6,764
  7,432
  8,131
  8,859
  9,617
  10,407
  11,227
  12,080
  12,966
  13,887
  14,844
  15,839
  16,874
  17,951
  19,070
  20,238
  21,453
  22,719
  24,041
  25,419
  26,858
  28,360
  29,930
  31,570
  33,285
  35,080
  36,956
  38,920
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.940
  1.010
  1.080
  1.130
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.320
  1.350
  1.370
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.370
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  217
  183
  198
  213
  228
  245
  262
  279
  298
  317
  337
  361
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  652
  685
  721
  757
  796
  836
  878
  922
  968
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  172
  195
  216
  238
  261
  285
  310
  336
  363
  391
  421
  446
  478
  510
  545
  580
  617
  656
  696
  738
  781
  827
  874
  924
  975
  1,029
  1,086
  1,145
  1,206
  1,271
  1,338
Funds from operations, $m
  284
  378
  414
  451
  489
  530
  572
  616
  661
  708
  758
  807
  860
  916
  973
  1,033
  1,095
  1,159
  1,227
  1,297
  1,370
  1,446
  1,526
  1,609
  1,696
  1,786
  1,881
  1,980
  2,084
  2,193
  2,306
Change in working capital, $m
  -129
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  413
  662
  403
  439
  477
  517
  559
  602
  647
  693
  742
  791
  844
  898
  955
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,205
  1,275
  1,347
  1,422
  1,501
  1,583
  1,668
  1,758
  1,851
  1,949
  2,051
  2,158
  2,270
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -170
  -190
  -211
  -233
  -256
  -280
  -305
  -331
  -358
  -386
  -415
  -446
  -478
  -510
  -545
  -580
  -617
  -656
  -696
  -738
  -781
  -827
  -874
  -924
  -975
  -1,029
  -1,086
  -1,145
  -1,206
  -1,271
New CAPEX, $m
  -567
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -529
  -552
  -576
  -600
  -624
  -649
  -675
  -701
  -728
  -757
  -787
  -818
  -851
  -886
  -923
  -961
  -1,002
  -1,045
  -1,090
  -1,138
  -1,188
  -1,241
  -1,298
  -1,357
  -1,419
  -1,485
  -1,554
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -761
  -628
  -671
  -716
  -762
  -808
  -856
  -905
  -955
  -1,007
  -1,061
  -1,116
  -1,174
  -1,235
  -1,297
  -1,363
  -1,431
  -1,503
  -1,579
  -1,657
  -1,740
  -1,826
  -1,917
  -2,012
  -2,112
  -2,216
  -2,327
  -2,443
  -2,564
  -2,691
  -2,825
Free cash flow, $m
  -348
  34
  -268
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -297
  -303
  -308
  -313
  -319
  -325
  -331
  -337
  -343
  -349
  -357
  -365
  -373
  -383
  -393
  -404
  -416
  -429
  -444
  -459
  -475
  -493
  -512
  -533
  -554
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  127
  360
  382
  400
  419
  438
  457
  476
  495
  514
  535
  556
  577
  600
  624
  649
  675
  702
  731
  762
  794
  828
  864
  902
  942
  984
  1,029
  1,075
  1,125
  1,177
  1,232
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  515
  0
  114
  115
  114
  114
  112
  110
  108
  105
  102
  100
  97
  93
  90
  87
  83
  80
  77
  74
  71
  69
  66
  64
  62
  60
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  625
  360
  496
  515
  533
  552
  569
  586
  603
  619
  637
  656
  674
  693
  714
  736
  758
  782
  808
  836
  865
  897
  930
  966
  1,004
  1,044
  1,088
  1,133
  1,182
  1,233
  1,287
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  277
  395
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  173
  187
  201
  216
  230
  247
  264
  281
  299
  318
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  473
  498
  525
  553
  582
  613
  644
  677
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -444
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -331
  -344
  -357
  -371
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -453
  -473
  -493
  -514
  -537
  -560
  -585
  -612
  -640
  -669
  -700
  -733
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  167
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  98.6
  97.3
  96.2
  95.2
  94.3
  93.5
  92.8
  92.2
  91.6
  91.1
  90.6
  90.2
  89.8
  89.5
  89.2
  88.9
  88.7
  88.4
  88.2
  88.1
  87.9
  87.7
  87.6
  87.5
  87.3
  87.2
  87.1
  87.0
  87.0

Keyera Corp. operates as an energy midstream company in Canada and the United States. It owns and operates 15 raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants with approximately 5,000 kilometers to collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components. The company is also involved in the processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminalling of natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as ethane, propane, butane, and condensate, as well as crude oil to customers through a network of facilities, including underground NGL storage caverns, ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation facilities, pipeline terminals, rail and truck terminals, NGL and crude oil pipelines, and AEF facilities; and produces iso-octane. In addition, it engages in marketing NGLs, crude oil, iso-octane, and sulphur, as well as propane, butane, and condensate, as well as the crude oil midstream activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keyera Corp. (KEY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.9
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -46.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 90.8%
Total Debt to Equity 94%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
EBITDA Margin 22.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 126.3%

KEY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2509 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keyera Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Keyera Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for KEY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keyera Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keyera Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Keyera Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keyera Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEY are equal to 155.7%.

Life of production assets of 23 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keyera Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEY is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1842 million for Keyera Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 186.571 million for Keyera Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keyera Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.


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Stock chart of KEY Financial statements of KEY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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