Intrinsic value of Linamar Corporation - LNR

Previous Close

$74.94

  Intrinsic Value

$109.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+47%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$74.94

 
Intrinsic value

$109.79

 
Up/down potential

+47%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LNR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.35
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  6,006
  6,402
  6,815
  7,244
  7,690
  8,156
  8,641
  9,146
  9,673
  10,224
  10,798
  11,398
  12,025
  12,681
  13,367
  14,084
  14,835
  15,620
  16,443
  17,305
  18,207
  19,153
  20,144
  21,183
  22,272
  23,414
  24,612
  25,868
  27,186
  28,568
  30,017
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,637
  5,998
  6,372
  6,762
  7,169
  7,592
  8,034
  8,494
  8,975
  9,477
  9,955
  10,503
  11,076
  11,674
  12,301
  12,956
  13,643
  14,361
  15,114
  15,902
  16,728
  17,594
  18,501
  19,452
  20,450
  21,496
  22,593
  23,744
  24,951
  26,217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,309
  5,652
  6,014
  6,388
  6,779
  7,186
  7,609
  8,052
  8,512
  8,994
  9,496
  9,975
  10,523
  11,097
  11,695
  12,323
  12,978
  13,666
  14,384
  15,138
  15,927
  16,753
  17,620
  18,527
  19,479
  20,478
  21,525
  22,622
  23,774
  24,982
  26,248
Operating income, $m
  697
  750
  801
  855
  911
  970
  1,031
  1,094
  1,161
  1,230
  1,302
  1,423
  1,502
  1,585
  1,671
  1,761
  1,856
  1,955
  2,058
  2,167
  2,281
  2,400
  2,525
  2,656
  2,793
  2,937
  3,088
  3,246
  3,412
  3,586
  3,769
EBITDA, $m
  1,030
  1,110
  1,182
  1,257
  1,335
  1,416
  1,501
  1,589
  1,682
  1,778
  1,878
  1,983
  2,093
  2,208
  2,328
  2,453
  2,585
  2,722
  2,866
  3,017
  3,175
  3,341
  3,514
  3,696
  3,887
  4,087
  4,297
  4,517
  4,748
  4,990
  5,244
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
  166
  177
  189
  202
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
Earnings before tax, $m
  673
  704
  750
  798
  848
  899
  953
  1,010
  1,068
  1,130
  1,194
  1,306
  1,376
  1,449
  1,526
  1,606
  1,690
  1,777
  1,869
  1,965
  2,066
  2,172
  2,283
  2,399
  2,520
  2,648
  2,782
  2,922
  3,069
  3,224
  3,386
Tax expense, $m
  150
  190
  203
  215
  229
  243
  257
  273
  288
  305
  322
  353
  372
  391
  412
  434
  456
  480
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  648
  680
  715
  751
  789
  829
  870
  914
Net income, $m
  522
  514
  548
  582
  619
  657
  696
  737
  780
  825
  871
  954
  1,005
  1,058
  1,114
  1,172
  1,233
  1,297
  1,365
  1,435
  1,508
  1,585
  1,666
  1,751
  1,840
  1,933
  2,031
  2,133
  2,241
  2,353
  2,472

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  405
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,227
  5,138
  5,469
  5,814
  6,172
  6,546
  6,935
  7,340
  7,764
  8,205
  8,666
  9,148
  9,651
  10,177
  10,728
  11,303
  11,906
  12,536
  13,197
  13,888
  14,613
  15,372
  16,167
  17,001
  17,875
  18,792
  19,753
  20,761
  21,818
  22,927
  24,091
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,822
  5,138
  5,469
  5,814
  6,172
  6,546
  6,935
  7,340
  7,764
  8,205
  8,666
  9,148
  9,651
  10,177
  10,728
  11,303
  11,906
  12,536
  13,197
  13,888
  14,613
  15,372
  16,167
  17,001
  17,875
  18,792
  19,753
  20,761
  21,818
  22,927
  24,091
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
Average production assets, $m
  2,039
  2,170
  2,310
  2,456
  2,607
  2,765
  2,929
  3,101
  3,279
  3,466
  3,661
  3,864
  4,077
  4,299
  4,531
  4,774
  5,029
  5,295
  5,574
  5,866
  6,172
  6,493
  6,829
  7,181
  7,550
  7,937
  8,343
  8,769
  9,216
  9,684
  10,176
Working capital, $m
  877
  723
  770
  819
  869
  922
  976
  1,034
  1,093
  1,155
  1,220
  1,288
  1,359
  1,433
  1,510
  1,591
  1,676
  1,765
  1,858
  1,955
  2,057
  2,164
  2,276
  2,394
  2,517
  2,646
  2,781
  2,923
  3,072
  3,228
  3,392
Total debt, $m
  1,433
  1,386
  1,553
  1,726
  1,907
  2,095
  2,291
  2,496
  2,709
  2,931
  3,164
  3,407
  3,660
  3,925
  4,203
  4,493
  4,797
  5,114
  5,447
  5,796
  6,161
  6,543
  6,944
  7,364
  7,805
  8,267
  8,751
  9,259
  9,792
  10,351
  10,938
Total liabilities, $m
  2,637
  2,590
  2,757
  2,930
  3,111
  3,299
  3,495
  3,700
  3,913
  4,135
  4,368
  4,611
  4,864
  5,129
  5,407
  5,697
  6,001
  6,318
  6,651
  7,000
  7,365
  7,747
  8,148
  8,568
  9,009
  9,471
  9,955
  10,463
  10,996
  11,555
  12,142
Total equity, $m
  2,590
  2,549
  2,713
  2,884
  3,061
  3,247
  3,440
  3,641
  3,851
  4,070
  4,298
  4,537
  4,787
  5,048
  5,321
  5,606
  5,905
  6,218
  6,546
  6,889
  7,248
  7,624
  8,019
  8,432
  8,866
  9,321
  9,797
  10,297
  10,822
  11,372
  11,949
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,227
  5,139
  5,470
  5,814
  6,172
  6,546
  6,935
  7,341
  7,764
  8,205
  8,666
  9,148
  9,651
  10,177
  10,728
  11,303
  11,906
  12,536
  13,197
  13,889
  14,613
  15,371
  16,167
  17,000
  17,875
  18,792
  19,752
  20,760
  21,818
  22,927
  24,091
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.553
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.455
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  522
  514
  548
  582
  619
  657
  696
  737
  780
  825
  871
  954
  1,005
  1,058
  1,114
  1,172
  1,233
  1,297
  1,365
  1,435
  1,508
  1,585
  1,666
  1,751
  1,840
  1,933
  2,031
  2,133
  2,241
  2,353
  2,472
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  333
  360
  381
  402
  424
  446
  470
  495
  521
  548
  576
  560
  591
  623
  657
  692
  729
  767
  808
  850
  895
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,094
  1,150
  1,209
  1,271
  1,336
  1,404
  1,475
Funds from operations, $m
  896
  874
  928
  984
  1,042
  1,103
  1,166
  1,232
  1,301
  1,373
  1,448
  1,514
  1,596
  1,681
  1,771
  1,864
  1,962
  2,065
  2,172
  2,285
  2,403
  2,526
  2,656
  2,792
  2,934
  3,083
  3,240
  3,404
  3,576
  3,757
  3,947
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
Cash from operations, $m
  898
  829
  881
  936
  992
  1,050
  1,111
  1,175
  1,241
  1,311
  1,383
  1,446
  1,525
  1,607
  1,693
  1,783
  1,877
  1,976
  2,079
  2,188
  2,301
  2,420
  2,544
  2,674
  2,811
  2,954
  3,105
  3,262
  3,427
  3,601
  3,783
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -296
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -401
  -425
  -449
  -475
  -502
  -531
  -560
  -591
  -623
  -657
  -692
  -729
  -767
  -808
  -850
  -895
  -941
  -990
  -1,041
  -1,094
  -1,150
  -1,209
  -1,271
  -1,336
  -1,404
New CAPEX, $m
  -343
  -131
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -469
  -492
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,575
  -427
  -455
  -480
  -507
  -536
  -565
  -596
  -628
  -662
  -697
  -734
  -773
  -813
  -855
  -900
  -946
  -995
  -1,046
  -1,100
  -1,156
  -1,216
  -1,277
  -1,342
  -1,410
  -1,481
  -1,556
  -1,635
  -1,718
  -1,805
  -1,896
Free cash flow, $m
  -677
  403
  427
  455
  484
  515
  546
  579
  613
  649
  686
  712
  752
  794
  838
  883
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,088
  1,145
  1,204
  1,267
  1,332
  1,401
  1,473
  1,548
  1,627
  1,710
  1,797
  1,888
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  836
  158
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
  508
  533
  559
  586
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  816
  158
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
  508
  533
  559
  586
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  92
  560
  594
  629
  665
  703
  742
  784
  827
  871
  918
  955
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,235
  1,299
  1,366
  1,436
  1,510
  1,587
  1,668
  1,753
  1,842
  1,935
  2,033
  2,135
  2,243
  2,356
  2,474
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -331
  -159
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -577
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  602
  430
  458
  487
  518
  549
  582
  617
  652
  689
  716
  756
  798
  842
  888
  936
  986
  1,038
  1,093
  1,150
  1,210
  1,273
  1,339
  1,408
  1,480
  1,556
  1,635
  1,718
  1,806
  1,897
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  577
  393
  399
  401
  401
  399
  393
  385
  375
  361
  340
  323
  303
  283
  261
  238
  215
  191
  168
  146
  125
  106
  88
  72
  58
  45
  35
  27
  20
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Linamar Corporation is a Canada-based diversified manufacturing company of engineered products powering vehicles, motion, work and lives. The Company operates through two segments: the Powertrain/Driveline and the Industrial. The segments are divided into four operating groups: Machining & Assembly, Light Metal Casting, Forging and Skyjack. The Company's Machining and Assembly, Casting and Forging operating groups focus on precision metallic components, modules and systems for engine, transmission, driveline and body systems designed for global vehicle and industrial markets. The Company's Skyjack operating group is noted for its mobile industrial equipment, notably its aerial work platforms and tele handlers. The Company provides core engine components, including cylinder blocks and heads, camshafts and connecting rods. For transmission, it builds differential assemblies, gear sets, shaft and shell assemblies, as well as clutch modules.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Linamar Corporation (LNR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.4
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 47.4%
Total Debt to Equity 55.3%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Total Capital 15.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Return On Equity 21.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
EBITDA Margin 17.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Operating Margin 11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 22.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 5%

LNR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LNR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6006 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Linamar Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Linamar Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LNR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LNR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Linamar Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Linamar Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LNR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LNR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Linamar Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Linamar Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LNR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LNR are equal to 33.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Linamar Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LNR is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2590 million for Linamar Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.316 million for Linamar Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Linamar Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MRE Martinrea Inte 11.54 11.83  hold
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Financial statements of LNR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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