Intrinsic value of Genworth MI Canada Inc. - MIC

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$33.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$33.90

 
Intrinsic value

$288.32

 
Up/down potential

+751%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.87
  36.10
  32.99
  30.19
  27.67
  25.40
  23.36
  21.53
  19.88
  18.39
  17.05
  15.84
  14.76
  13.78
  12.91
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  0
  924
  1,229
  1,600
  2,043
  2,562
  3,160
  3,841
  4,604
  5,451
  6,380
  7,391
  8,481
  9,650
  10,896
  12,216
  13,609
  15,073
  16,609
  18,215
  19,891
  21,637
  23,455
  25,347
  27,313
  29,356
  31,479
  33,685
  35,979
  38,363
  40,844
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  128
  167
  212
  266
  328
  398
  477
  565
  661
  764
  877
  998
  1,126
  1,263
  1,407
  1,558
  1,717
  1,883
  2,056
  2,237
  2,425
  2,620
  2,824
  3,035
  3,254
  3,482
  3,719
  3,966
  4,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  103
  97
  128
  167
  212
  266
  328
  398
  477
  565
  661
  764
  877
  998
  1,126
  1,263
  1,407
  1,558
  1,717
  1,883
  2,056
  2,237
  2,425
  2,620
  2,824
  3,035
  3,254
  3,482
  3,719
  3,966
  4,222
Operating income, $m
  575
  827
  1,101
  1,434
  1,831
  2,296
  2,832
  3,442
  4,127
  4,886
  5,719
  6,627
  7,605
  8,653
  9,769
  10,953
  12,202
  13,515
  14,892
  16,332
  17,834
  19,400
  21,031
  22,726
  24,489
  26,321
  28,225
  30,203
  32,259
  34,397
  36,621
EBITDA, $m
  641
  831
  1,105
  1,439
  1,837
  2,304
  2,842
  3,454
  4,141
  4,902
  5,738
  6,647
  7,628
  8,680
  9,800
  10,987
  12,240
  13,557
  14,938
  16,383
  17,890
  19,461
  21,096
  22,797
  24,565
  26,403
  28,313
  30,297
  32,360
  34,505
  36,735
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  22
  76
  144
  226
  324
  439
  572
  723
  892
  1,080
  1,286
  1,510
  1,752
  2,012
  2,288
  2,581
  2,890
  3,215
  3,555
  3,911
  4,283
  4,671
  5,074
  5,493
  5,930
  6,383
  6,854
  7,343
  7,852
  8,381
Earnings before tax, $m
  566
  805
  1,025
  1,290
  1,605
  1,972
  2,393
  2,870
  3,404
  3,994
  4,639
  5,340
  6,094
  6,900
  7,758
  8,665
  9,621
  10,625
  11,677
  12,776
  13,923
  15,117
  16,360
  17,652
  18,995
  20,391
  21,842
  23,349
  24,916
  26,545
  28,240
Tax expense, $m
  149
  217
  277
  348
  433
  532
  646
  775
  919
  1,078
  1,253
  1,442
  1,645
  1,863
  2,095
  2,340
  2,598
  2,869
  3,153
  3,450
  3,759
  4,082
  4,417
  4,766
  5,129
  5,506
  5,897
  6,304
  6,727
  7,167
  7,625
Net income, $m
  417
  588
  748
  942
  1,171
  1,439
  1,747
  2,095
  2,485
  2,915
  3,387
  3,898
  4,449
  5,037
  5,663
  6,325
  7,023
  7,757
  8,524
  9,327
  10,164
  11,036
  11,943
  12,886
  13,867
  14,886
  15,945
  17,045
  18,189
  19,378
  20,615

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,612
  8,972
  11,932
  15,534
  19,833
  24,871
  30,682
  37,288
  44,699
  52,918
  61,939
  71,753
  82,343
  93,693
  105,784
  118,600
  132,124
  146,344
  161,252
  176,842
  193,113
  210,070
  227,723
  246,083
  265,170
  285,007
  305,620
  327,043
  349,309
  372,460
  396,539
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,612
  8,972
  11,932
  15,534
  19,833
  24,871
  30,682
  37,288
  44,699
  52,918
  61,939
  71,753
  82,343
  93,693
  105,784
  118,600
  132,124
  146,344
  161,252
  176,842
  193,113
  210,070
  227,723
  246,083
  265,170
  285,007
  305,620
  327,043
  349,309
  372,460
  396,539
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  10
  13
  17
  22
  29
  36
  44
  54
  64
  76
  89
  103
  119
  135
  153
  171
  191
  211
  233
  255
  278
  303
  328
  355
  382
  411
  441
  472
  504
  537
  572
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  433
  1,489
  2,815
  4,429
  6,355
  8,612
  11,216
  14,175
  17,495
  21,177
  25,219
  29,615
  34,360
  39,445
  44,861
  50,603
  56,662
  63,032
  69,711
  76,695
  83,985
  91,582
  99,490
  107,715
  116,266
  125,153
  134,388
  143,985
  153,960
  164,332
  175,119
Total liabilities, $m
  2,963
  4,019
  5,345
  6,959
  8,885
  11,142
  13,746
  16,705
  20,025
  23,707
  27,749
  32,145
  36,890
  41,975
  47,391
  53,133
  59,192
  65,562
  72,241
  79,225
  86,515
  94,112
  102,020
  110,245
  118,796
  127,683
  136,918
  146,515
  156,490
  166,862
  177,649
Total equity, $m
  3,649
  4,953
  6,586
  8,575
  10,948
  13,729
  16,937
  20,583
  24,674
  29,210
  34,190
  39,608
  45,453
  51,719
  58,393
  65,467
  72,932
  80,782
  89,011
  97,617
  106,598
  115,959
  125,703
  135,838
  146,374
  157,324
  168,702
  180,527
  192,819
  205,598
  218,889
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,612
  8,972
  11,931
  15,534
  19,833
  24,871
  30,683
  37,288
  44,699
  52,917
  61,939
  71,753
  82,343
  93,694
  105,784
  118,600
  132,124
  146,344
  161,252
  176,842
  193,113
  210,071
  227,723
  246,083
  265,170
  285,007
  305,620
  327,042
  349,309
  372,460
  396,538
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.119
  0.300
  0.430
  0.520
  0.580
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  417
  588
  748
  942
  1,171
  1,439
  1,747
  2,095
  2,485
  2,915
  3,387
  3,898
  4,449
  5,037
  5,663
  6,325
  7,023
  7,757
  8,524
  9,327
  10,164
  11,036
  11,943
  12,886
  13,867
  14,886
  15,945
  17,045
  18,189
  19,378
  20,615
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  643
  592
  753
  947
  1,178
  1,448
  1,757
  2,107
  2,499
  2,932
  3,405
  3,919
  4,472
  5,064
  5,694
  6,360
  7,062
  7,799
  8,571
  9,378
  10,219
  11,096
  12,008
  12,957
  13,943
  14,968
  16,033
  17,139
  18,289
  19,486
  20,730
Change in working capital, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  544
  592
  753
  947
  1,178
  1,448
  1,757
  2,107
  2,499
  2,932
  3,405
  3,919
  4,472
  5,064
  5,694
  6,360
  7,062
  7,799
  8,571
  9,378
  10,219
  11,096
  12,008
  12,957
  13,943
  14,968
  16,033
  17,139
  18,289
  19,486
  20,730
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -654
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
Free cash flow, $m
  -110
  587
  746
  939
  1,168
  1,435
  1,741
  2,089
  2,477
  2,907
  3,377
  3,887
  4,437
  5,024
  5,649
  6,311
  7,008
  7,740
  8,507
  9,309
  10,145
  11,016
  11,922
  12,865
  13,845
  14,863
  15,921
  17,020
  18,163
  19,351
  20,588
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1,056
  1,326
  1,614
  1,926
  2,257
  2,603
  2,959
  3,320
  3,682
  4,042
  4,396
  4,744
  5,085
  5,417
  5,741
  6,059
  6,371
  6,679
  6,984
  7,290
  7,597
  7,908
  8,225
  8,551
  8,887
  9,235
  9,597
  9,975
  10,372
  10,787
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  1,056
  1,326
  1,614
  1,926
  2,257
  2,603
  2,959
  3,320
  3,682
  4,042
  4,396
  4,744
  5,085
  5,417
  5,741
  6,059
  6,371
  6,679
  6,984
  7,290
  7,597
  7,908
  8,225
  8,551
  8,887
  9,235
  9,597
  9,975
  10,372
  10,787
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -109
  1,643
  2,072
  2,552
  3,093
  3,692
  4,345
  5,048
  5,798
  6,589
  7,419
  8,284
  9,181
  10,109
  11,066
  12,052
  13,067
  14,111
  15,186
  16,293
  17,435
  18,613
  19,831
  21,090
  22,396
  23,750
  25,156
  26,617
  28,138
  29,723
  31,375
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -229
  -1,304
  -1,634
  -1,989
  -2,373
  -2,781
  -3,208
  -3,646
  -4,091
  -4,537
  -4,980
  -5,417
  -5,846
  -6,265
  -6,674
  -7,074
  -7,465
  -7,850
  -8,229
  -8,606
  -8,982
  -9,360
  -9,744
  -10,135
  -10,536
  -10,950
  -11,379
  -11,825
  -12,291
  -12,779
  -13,292
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  340
  438
  564
  720
  911
  1,137
  1,402
  1,707
  2,052
  2,439
  2,867
  3,335
  3,844
  4,392
  4,978
  5,601
  6,261
  6,957
  7,687
  8,453
  9,252
  10,087
  10,955
  11,860
  12,800
  13,777
  14,792
  15,847
  16,944
  18,083
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  326
  401
  491
  593
  706
  825
  947
  1,067
  1,179
  1,279
  1,361
  1,423
  1,461
  1,474
  1,461
  1,423
  1,362
  1,281
  1,184
  1,074
  957
  837
  718
  604
  498
  402
  317
  245
  185
  136
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Genworth MI Canada Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a private residential mortgage insurer in Canada. It underwrites mortgage default insurance to residential mortgage lenders, brokers, homebuyers, and realtors. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Oakville, Canada. Genworth MI Canada Inc. is a subsidiary of Genworth Financial Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Genworth MI Canada Inc. (MIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.5
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 11.9%
Total Debt to Equity 11.9%
Interest Coverage 27
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Return On Equity 11.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 96.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.8%
Operating Margin 84.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 83.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.6%
Net Profit Margin 61.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Payout Ratio 37.4%

MIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $679 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Genworth MI Canada Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Genworth MI Canada Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Genworth MI Canada Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Genworth MI Canada Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 10.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Genworth MI Canada Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Genworth MI Canada Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIC are equal to 1.4%.

Life of production assets of 0.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Genworth MI Canada Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3649 million for Genworth MI Canada Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.948 million for Genworth MI Canada Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Genworth MI Canada Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.


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Stock chart of MIC Financial statements of MIC
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