Intrinsic value of Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm - MST-UN

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$21.77

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$21.77

 
Intrinsic value

$116.41

 
Up/down potential

+435%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MST-UN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.28
  32.50
  29.75
  27.28
  25.05
  23.04
  21.24
  19.61
  18.15
  16.84
  15.65
  14.59
  13.63
  12.77
  11.99
  11.29
  10.66
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
Revenue, $m
  381
  505
  655
  834
  1,042
  1,283
  1,555
  1,860
  2,198
  2,568
  2,970
  3,403
  3,867
  4,361
  4,884
  5,435
  6,014
  6,622
  7,256
  7,919
  8,609
  9,327
  10,074
  10,851
  11,658
  12,496
  13,368
  14,274
  15,215
  16,195
  17,215
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -50
  -61
  -73
  -86
  -100
  -116
  -133
  -151
  -170
  -190
  -212
  -235
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -336
  -364
  -393
  -423
  -455
  -487
  -521
  -557
  -593
  -632
  -671
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  311
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -50
  -61
  -73
  -86
  -100
  -116
  -133
  -151
  -170
  -190
  -212
  -235
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -336
  -364
  -393
  -423
  -455
  -487
  -521
  -557
  -593
  -632
  -671
Operating income, $m
  70
  525
  681
  866
  1,083
  1,333
  1,616
  1,933
  2,284
  2,668
  3,086
  3,536
  4,018
  4,531
  5,074
  5,647
  6,249
  6,880
  7,539
  8,227
  8,945
  9,691
  10,467
  11,274
  12,112
  12,983
  13,889
  14,830
  15,809
  16,827
  17,886
EBITDA, $m
  71
  525
  681
  867
  1,084
  1,334
  1,617
  1,934
  2,285
  2,670
  3,088
  3,539
  4,021
  4,534
  5,078
  5,651
  6,254
  6,885
  7,545
  8,234
  8,951
  9,698
  10,475
  11,282
  12,122
  12,993
  13,900
  14,842
  15,821
  16,840
  17,900
Interest expense (income), $m
  67
  78
  107
  143
  186
  236
  293
  359
  431
  512
  601
  697
  800
  911
  1,029
  1,154
  1,286
  1,424
  1,570
  1,721
  1,880
  2,045
  2,216
  2,395
  2,580
  2,773
  2,974
  3,182
  3,399
  3,624
  3,858
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  447
  573
  723
  897
  1,097
  1,322
  1,574
  1,852
  2,156
  2,485
  2,839
  3,218
  3,620
  4,045
  4,493
  4,963
  5,455
  5,970
  6,506
  7,065
  7,646
  8,251
  8,879
  9,532
  10,210
  10,915
  11,648
  12,410
  13,203
  14,028
Tax expense, $m
  2
  121
  155
  195
  242
  296
  357
  425
  500
  582
  671
  767
  869
  977
  1,092
  1,213
  1,340
  1,473
  1,612
  1,757
  1,908
  2,064
  2,228
  2,397
  2,574
  2,757
  2,947
  3,145
  3,351
  3,565
  3,788
Net income, $m
  50
  326
  418
  528
  655
  801
  965
  1,149
  1,352
  1,574
  1,814
  2,073
  2,349
  2,642
  2,953
  3,280
  3,623
  3,982
  4,358
  4,750
  5,157
  5,582
  6,023
  6,482
  6,958
  7,453
  7,968
  8,503
  9,060
  9,638
  10,241

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,754
  4,949
  6,422
  8,173
  10,220
  12,575
  15,246
  18,237
  21,547
  25,175
  29,116
  33,364
  37,911
  42,752
  47,878
  53,283
  58,965
  64,917
  71,141
  77,634
  84,400
  91,441
  98,765
  106,378
  114,290
  122,511
  131,055
  139,937
  149,171
  158,777
  168,772
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,728
  4,949
  6,422
  8,173
  10,220
  12,575
  15,246
  18,237
  21,547
  25,175
  29,116
  33,364
  37,911
  42,752
  47,878
  53,283
  58,965
  64,917
  71,141
  77,634
  84,400
  91,441
  98,765
  106,378
  114,290
  122,511
  131,055
  139,937
  149,171
  158,777
  168,772
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
Working capital, $m
  -91
  -77
  -100
  -127
  -158
  -195
  -236
  -283
  -334
  -390
  -451
  -517
  -588
  -663
  -742
  -826
  -914
  -1,006
  -1,103
  -1,204
  -1,309
  -1,418
  -1,531
  -1,649
  -1,772
  -1,899
  -2,032
  -2,170
  -2,313
  -2,462
  -2,617
Total debt, $m
  1,831
  2,499
  3,334
  4,327
  5,488
  6,823
  8,338
  10,033
  11,910
  13,967
  16,202
  18,610
  21,189
  23,933
  26,840
  29,905
  33,126
  36,501
  40,030
  43,711
  47,548
  51,540
  55,693
  60,009
  64,495
  69,157
  74,001
  79,037
  84,273
  89,719
  95,387
Total liabilities, $m
  2,138
  2,806
  3,641
  4,634
  5,795
  7,130
  8,645
  10,340
  12,217
  14,274
  16,509
  18,917
  21,496
  24,240
  27,147
  30,212
  33,433
  36,808
  40,337
  44,018
  47,855
  51,847
  56,000
  60,316
  64,802
  69,464
  74,308
  79,344
  84,580
  90,026
  95,694
Total equity, $m
  1,616
  2,143
  2,781
  3,539
  4,425
  5,445
  6,602
  7,897
  9,330
  10,901
  12,607
  14,447
  16,416
  18,511
  20,731
  23,072
  25,532
  28,109
  30,804
  33,616
  36,545
  39,594
  42,765
  46,062
  49,487
  53,047
  56,747
  60,593
  64,591
  68,750
  73,078
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,754
  4,949
  6,422
  8,173
  10,220
  12,575
  15,247
  18,237
  21,547
  25,175
  29,116
  33,364
  37,912
  42,751
  47,878
  53,284
  58,965
  64,917
  71,141
  77,634
  84,400
  91,441
  98,765
  106,378
  114,289
  122,511
  131,055
  139,937
  149,171
  158,776
  168,772
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.133
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  50
  326
  418
  528
  655
  801
  965
  1,149
  1,352
  1,574
  1,814
  2,073
  2,349
  2,642
  2,953
  3,280
  3,623
  3,982
  4,358
  4,750
  5,157
  5,582
  6,023
  6,482
  6,958
  7,453
  7,968
  8,503
  9,060
  9,638
  10,241
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  162
  327
  419
  528
  656
  802
  967
  1,151
  1,354
  1,576
  1,816
  2,075
  2,352
  2,646
  2,957
  3,284
  3,628
  3,988
  4,364
  4,756
  5,164
  5,589
  6,031
  6,490
  6,968
  7,463
  7,979
  8,515
  9,072
  9,651
  10,254
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
Cash from operations, $m
  142
  345
  442
  555
  687
  838
  1,008
  1,197
  1,405
  1,632
  1,878
  2,141
  2,422
  2,721
  3,036
  3,368
  3,716
  4,080
  4,460
  4,857
  5,269
  5,698
  6,145
  6,608
  7,090
  7,591
  8,111
  8,652
  9,215
  9,800
  10,409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -363
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Free cash flow, $m
  -221
  344
  441
  554
  686
  836
  1,006
  1,195
  1,402
  1,629
  1,874
  2,137
  2,418
  2,716
  3,031
  3,362
  3,709
  4,073
  4,452
  4,848
  5,260
  5,689
  6,134
  6,597
  7,078
  7,578
  8,098
  8,638
  9,200
  9,784
  10,392
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  694
  835
  993
  1,161
  1,335
  1,514
  1,696
  1,877
  2,057
  2,235
  2,408
  2,578
  2,744
  2,906
  3,065
  3,221
  3,375
  3,529
  3,682
  3,836
  3,993
  4,152
  4,317
  4,486
  4,662
  4,845
  5,036
  5,236
  5,446
  5,667
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  318
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  241
  694
  835
  993
  1,161
  1,335
  1,514
  1,696
  1,877
  2,057
  2,235
  2,408
  2,578
  2,744
  2,906
  3,065
  3,221
  3,375
  3,529
  3,682
  3,836
  3,993
  4,152
  4,317
  4,486
  4,662
  4,845
  5,036
  5,236
  5,446
  5,667
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  1,038
  1,276
  1,547
  1,847
  2,172
  2,520
  2,890
  3,279
  3,686
  4,108
  4,545
  4,996
  5,460
  5,937
  6,427
  6,930
  7,448
  7,981
  8,530
  9,096
  9,681
  10,287
  10,914
  11,564
  12,240
  12,942
  13,674
  14,436
  15,230
  16,060
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -314
  -527
  -638
  -758
  -886
  -1,020
  -1,156
  -1,295
  -1,433
  -1,571
  -1,706
  -1,839
  -1,969
  -2,096
  -2,220
  -2,341
  -2,460
  -2,578
  -2,695
  -2,812
  -2,930
  -3,049
  -3,171
  -3,296
  -3,426
  -3,560
  -3,700
  -3,846
  -3,999
  -4,159
  -4,328
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  511
  638
  789
  960
  1,152
  1,364
  1,595
  1,846
  2,115
  2,402
  2,706
  3,027
  3,364
  3,717
  4,086
  4,471
  4,870
  5,286
  5,718
  6,167
  6,632
  7,116
  7,617
  8,138
  8,680
  9,243
  9,828
  10,437
  11,071
  11,732
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  467
  529
  587
  635
  671
  691
  695
  683
  656
  616
  565
  506
  443
  379
  316
  257
  204
  158
  119
  87
  62
  43
  29
  18
  12
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investment Trust focuses on acquiring and owning multifamily properties in the United States. It intends to acquire and manage 52-property portfolio of multifamily assets comprising 16,944 units located in the Southeast and Southwest United States. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm (MST-UN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 109.7%
Total Debt to Equity 113.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Equity 3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55%
EBITDA Margin 31.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.8%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.3%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.9%
Effective Tax Rate 3.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Payout Ratio 116%

MST-UN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MST-UN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $381 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MST-UN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for MST-UN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MST-UN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to -3.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MST-UN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MST-UN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MST-UN are equal to 0.4%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MST-UN is equal to -15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1616 million for Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.106 million for Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investm at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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