Intrinsic value of Northland Power Inc. - NPI

Previous Close

$25.02

  Intrinsic Value

$13.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$25.02

 
Intrinsic value

$13.57

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  50.96
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  1,099
  1,219
  1,344
  1,476
  1,613
  1,756
  1,905
  2,060
  2,221
  2,389
  2,563
  2,744
  2,932
  3,127
  3,331
  3,542
  3,762
  3,991
  4,230
  4,479
  4,739
  5,010
  5,293
  5,588
  5,897
  6,219
  6,557
  6,909
  7,279
  7,665
  8,070
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  438
  481
  526
  573
  622
  673
  726
  781
  838
  898
  939
  1,003
  1,070
  1,140
  1,212
  1,287
  1,366
  1,447
  1,533
  1,622
  1,714
  1,811
  1,912
  2,018
  2,128
  2,243
  2,364
  2,491
  2,623
  2,761
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  241
  246
  252
  257
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  293
  300
  306
  313
  320
  327
  334
  342
  349
  357
  365
  373
  381
  389
  398
  407
  416
  425
  434
  444
  453
Total operating expenses, $m
  627
  679
  727
  778
  830
  885
  942
  1,001
  1,062
  1,125
  1,191
  1,239
  1,309
  1,383
  1,460
  1,539
  1,621
  1,708
  1,796
  1,890
  1,987
  2,087
  2,192
  2,301
  2,416
  2,535
  2,659
  2,789
  2,925
  3,067
  3,214
Operating income, $m
  472
  540
  617
  698
  783
  872
  964
  1,060
  1,160
  1,264
  1,372
  1,505
  1,622
  1,744
  1,871
  2,003
  2,141
  2,284
  2,434
  2,590
  2,753
  2,923
  3,101
  3,287
  3,481
  3,685
  3,898
  4,121
  4,354
  4,599
  4,855
EBITDA, $m
  720
  827
  932
  1,042
  1,157
  1,277
  1,401
  1,531
  1,667
  1,807
  1,954
  2,106
  2,264
  2,428
  2,600
  2,778
  2,964
  3,158
  3,359
  3,570
  3,790
  4,019
  4,259
  4,510
  4,772
  5,046
  5,332
  5,633
  5,947
  6,276
  6,621
Interest expense (income), $m
  197
  213
  238
  268
  299
  332
  366
  402
  439
  477
  517
  559
  602
  647
  693
  742
  792
  845
  899
  956
  1,016
  1,078
  1,142
  1,210
  1,280
  1,354
  1,431
  1,512
  1,596
  1,684
  1,776
Earnings before tax, $m
  219
  326
  379
  431
  484
  540
  598
  658
  721
  787
  855
  947
  1,021
  1,098
  1,178
  1,261
  1,348
  1,439
  1,534
  1,633
  1,737
  1,845
  1,958
  2,077
  2,201
  2,331
  2,467
  2,609
  2,758
  2,915
  3,079
Tax expense, $m
  28
  88
  102
  116
  131
  146
  161
  178
  195
  212
  231
  256
  276
  296
  318
  341
  364
  389
  414
  441
  469
  498
  529
  561
  594
  629
  666
  704
  745
  787
  831
Net income, $m
  121
  238
  277
  314
  353
  394
  436
  481
  526
  574
  624
  691
  745
  801
  860
  921
  984
  1,051
  1,120
  1,192
  1,268
  1,347
  1,430
  1,516
  1,607
  1,701
  1,801
  1,905
  2,014
  2,128
  2,248

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  308
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,663
  9,233
  10,185
  11,181
  12,221
  13,305
  14,434
  15,608
  16,829
  18,098
  19,417
  20,787
  22,211
  23,692
  25,232
  26,834
  28,502
  30,238
  32,048
  33,934
  35,901
  37,954
  40,097
  42,334
  44,672
  47,116
  49,672
  52,345
  55,141
  58,069
  61,134
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,355
  9,233
  10,185
  11,181
  12,221
  13,305
  14,434
  15,608
  16,829
  18,098
  19,417
  20,787
  22,211
  23,692
  25,232
  26,834
  28,502
  30,238
  32,048
  33,934
  35,901
  37,954
  40,097
  42,334
  44,672
  47,116
  49,672
  52,345
  55,141
  58,069
  61,134
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
  0.132
Average production assets, $m
  6,807
  7,548
  8,326
  9,140
  9,991
  10,877
  11,800
  12,760
  13,758
  14,795
  15,873
  16,993
  18,157
  19,368
  20,626
  21,936
  23,299
  24,719
  26,198
  27,740
  29,348
  31,026
  32,778
  34,607
  36,519
  38,516
  40,605
  42,790
  45,077
  47,470
  49,975
Working capital, $m
  190
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Total debt, $m
  6,212
  6,793
  7,650
  8,546
  9,482
  10,458
  11,474
  12,531
  13,629
  14,771
  15,958
  17,191
  18,473
  19,806
  21,192
  22,634
  24,135
  25,698
  27,326
  29,024
  30,794
  32,641
  34,570
  36,584
  38,688
  40,888
  43,188
  45,593
  48,110
  50,745
  53,503
Total liabilities, $m
  7,729
  8,310
  9,167
  10,063
  10,999
  11,975
  12,991
  14,048
  15,146
  16,288
  17,475
  18,708
  19,990
  21,323
  22,709
  24,151
  25,652
  27,215
  28,843
  30,541
  32,311
  34,158
  36,087
  38,101
  40,205
  42,405
  44,705
  47,110
  49,627
  52,262
  55,020
Total equity, $m
  934
  923
  1,019
  1,118
  1,222
  1,331
  1,443
  1,561
  1,683
  1,810
  1,942
  2,079
  2,221
  2,369
  2,523
  2,683
  2,850
  3,024
  3,205
  3,393
  3,590
  3,795
  4,010
  4,233
  4,467
  4,712
  4,967
  5,234
  5,514
  5,807
  6,113
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,663
  9,233
  10,186
  11,181
  12,221
  13,306
  14,434
  15,609
  16,829
  18,098
  19,417
  20,787
  22,211
  23,692
  25,232
  26,834
  28,502
  30,239
  32,048
  33,934
  35,901
  37,953
  40,097
  42,334
  44,672
  47,117
  49,672
  52,344
  55,141
  58,069
  61,133
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.651
  7.360
  7.510
  7.640
  7.760
  7.860
  7.950
  8.030
  8.100
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.075
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  238
  277
  314
  353
  394
  436
  481
  526
  574
  624
  691
  745
  801
  860
  921
  984
  1,051
  1,120
  1,192
  1,268
  1,347
  1,430
  1,516
  1,607
  1,701
  1,801
  1,905
  2,014
  2,128
  2,248
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  248
  287
  315
  344
  374
  405
  438
  472
  507
  543
  582
  600
  642
  684
  729
  775
  823
  873
  926
  980
  1,037
  1,096
  1,158
  1,223
  1,290
  1,361
  1,435
  1,512
  1,593
  1,677
  1,766
Funds from operations, $m
  722
  526
  592
  658
  727
  799
  874
  952
  1,033
  1,118
  1,206
  1,292
  1,387
  1,486
  1,589
  1,696
  1,808
  1,924
  2,046
  2,173
  2,305
  2,443
  2,588
  2,739
  2,897
  3,062
  3,235
  3,417
  3,606
  3,805
  4,014
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  720
  526
  592
  658
  727
  799
  874
  953
  1,034
  1,118
  1,206
  1,292
  1,387
  1,486
  1,589
  1,697
  1,808
  1,925
  2,046
  2,173
  2,306
  2,444
  2,589
  2,740
  2,898
  3,063
  3,236
  3,418
  3,608
  3,806
  4,015
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -241
  -267
  -294
  -323
  -353
  -384
  -417
  -451
  -486
  -523
  -561
  -600
  -642
  -684
  -729
  -775
  -823
  -873
  -926
  -980
  -1,037
  -1,096
  -1,158
  -1,223
  -1,290
  -1,361
  -1,435
  -1,512
  -1,593
  -1,677
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,626
  -741
  -778
  -814
  -850
  -886
  -923
  -960
  -998
  -1,037
  -1,078
  -1,120
  -1,164
  -1,210
  -1,259
  -1,310
  -1,363
  -1,420
  -1,479
  -1,542
  -1,608
  -1,678
  -1,752
  -1,829
  -1,911
  -1,998
  -2,089
  -2,185
  -2,286
  -2,393
  -2,505
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,536
  -982
  -1,045
  -1,108
  -1,173
  -1,239
  -1,307
  -1,377
  -1,449
  -1,523
  -1,601
  -1,681
  -1,764
  -1,852
  -1,943
  -2,039
  -2,138
  -2,243
  -2,352
  -2,468
  -2,588
  -2,715
  -2,848
  -2,987
  -3,134
  -3,288
  -3,450
  -3,620
  -3,798
  -3,986
  -4,182
Free cash flow, $m
  -816
  -456
  -453
  -450
  -446
  -440
  -433
  -424
  -415
  -405
  -394
  -389
  -378
  -366
  -354
  -342
  -330
  -318
  -306
  -294
  -283
  -271
  -259
  -248
  -236
  -225
  -214
  -202
  -191
  -179
  -168
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,303
  696
  857
  896
  936
  976
  1,016
  1,057
  1,099
  1,142
  1,187
  1,233
  1,282
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,501
  1,563
  1,629
  1,698
  1,770
  1,847
  1,928
  2,014
  2,104
  2,199
  2,300
  2,406
  2,517
  2,635
  2,758
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,122
  696
  857
  896
  936
  976
  1,016
  1,057
  1,099
  1,142
  1,187
  1,233
  1,282
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,501
  1,563
  1,629
  1,698
  1,770
  1,847
  1,928
  2,014
  2,104
  2,199
  2,300
  2,406
  2,517
  2,635
  2,758
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  307
  240
  404
  446
  490
  536
  583
  633
  684
  737
  792
  844
  904
  967
  1,032
  1,100
  1,171
  1,245
  1,322
  1,403
  1,488
  1,576
  1,669
  1,766
  1,868
  1,975
  2,086
  2,203
  2,326
  2,455
  2,590
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  59
  -182
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -256
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -306
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  193
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  309
  347
  386
  427
  470
  515
  562
  610
  660
  707
  762
  819
  878
  940
  1,004
  1,071
  1,141
  1,215
  1,291
  1,371
  1,455
  1,543
  1,634
  1,730
  1,831
  1,936
  2,047
  2,162
  2,284
Discount rate, %
 
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  224
  243
  238
  229
  215
  199
  180
  160
  139
  118
  98
  80
  64
  49
  37
  28
  20
  14
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Northland Power Inc. (Northland) is an independent power producer. The Company develops, finances, builds, owns and operates facilities in Canada and internationally that produce clean and green energy using natural gas, biomass, wind and solar technology. Northland segments include thermal; renewable; managed, which includes management and operations services for Kirkland Lake, Cochrane and Canadian Environmental Energy Corporation (CEEC); offshore wind, including Gemini and Nordsee, and other, which includes investment income and administration of Northland. Northland owns power-producing facilities with a total capacity of approximately 1,340 megawatts (MW). Northland's offshore wind facilities consist of the 600 MW Gemini wind farm, located off the coast of the Netherlands, and the 332 MW Nordsee One wind farm, located off the coast of Germany. The Company's other projects include Grand Bend 100 MW Wind Project, Ground-Mounted Solar Projects and Frampton 24 MW Wind Project.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northland Power Inc. (NPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.6
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 51%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 31.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 652.8%
Total Debt to Equity 665.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71%
EBITDA Margin 60.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Operating Margin 42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Effective Tax Rate 12.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Payout Ratio 124.8%

NPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1099 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northland Power Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Northland Power Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for NPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northland Power Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northland Power Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $236 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Northland Power Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northland Power Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NPI are equal to 619.3%.

Life of production assets of 28.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northland Power Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NPI is equal to -0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $934 million for Northland Power Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 173.876 million for Northland Power Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northland Power Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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Financial statements of NPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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