Intrinsic value of Norbord Inc. - OSB

Previous Close

$48.96

  Intrinsic Value

$2.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$48.96

 
Intrinsic value

$2.56

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OSB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.02
  17.00
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,792
  3,233
  3,709
  4,218
  4,761
  5,337
  5,944
  6,582
  7,252
  7,951
  8,682
  9,443
  10,235
  11,059
  11,915
  12,805
  13,730
  14,692
  15,691
  16,730
  17,810
  18,935
  20,105
  21,324
  22,595
  23,919
  25,300
  26,742
  28,247
  29,819
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,842
  3,291
  3,775
  4,294
  4,847
  5,433
  6,051
  6,701
  7,382
  8,094
  8,838
  9,613
  10,419
  11,258
  12,130
  13,036
  13,977
  14,956
  15,973
  17,031
  18,131
  19,275
  20,467
  21,708
  23,001
  24,349
  25,756
  27,223
  28,755
  30,356
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,986
  2,842
  3,291
  3,775
  4,294
  4,847
  5,433
  6,051
  6,701
  7,382
  8,094
  8,838
  9,613
  10,419
  11,258
  12,130
  13,036
  13,977
  14,956
  15,973
  17,031
  18,131
  19,275
  20,467
  21,708
  23,001
  24,349
  25,756
  27,223
  28,755
  30,356
Operating income, $m
  400
  -50
  -58
  -67
  -76
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -131
  -143
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -199
  -214
  -230
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -384
  -407
  -431
  -455
  -481
  -508
  -537
EBITDA, $m
  527
  99
  115
  132
  150
  169
  189
  211
  234
  257
  282
  308
  335
  363
  392
  423
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  632
  672
  713
  757
  802
  849
  898
  949
  1,002
  1,058
Interest expense (income), $m
  68
  52
  67
  83
  101
  120
  140
  161
  183
  207
  232
  258
  285
  313
  342
  372
  404
  437
  471
  506
  543
  582
  622
  663
  706
  751
  798
  847
  898
  951
  1,007
Earnings before tax, $m
  330
  -102
  -125
  -150
  -177
  -205
  -236
  -268
  -302
  -338
  -375
  -414
  -455
  -497
  -541
  -587
  -634
  -684
  -735
  -789
  -844
  -902
  -962
  -1,025
  -1,090
  -1,158
  -1,229
  -1,302
  -1,379
  -1,460
  -1,544
Tax expense, $m
  83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  247
  -102
  -125
  -150
  -177
  -205
  -236
  -268
  -302
  -338
  -375
  -414
  -455
  -497
  -541
  -587
  -634
  -684
  -735
  -789
  -844
  -902
  -962
  -1,025
  -1,090
  -1,158
  -1,229
  -1,302
  -1,379
  -1,460
  -1,544

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  218
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,431
  2,590
  2,999
  3,440
  3,913
  4,417
  4,951
  5,514
  6,106
  6,727
  7,376
  8,053
  8,759
  9,494
  10,259
  11,053
  11,879
  12,737
  13,629
  14,556
  15,519
  16,522
  17,565
  18,650
  19,781
  20,960
  22,188
  23,470
  24,807
  26,203
  27,661
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,213
  2,590
  2,999
  3,440
  3,913
  4,417
  4,951
  5,514
  6,106
  6,727
  7,376
  8,053
  8,759
  9,494
  10,259
  11,053
  11,879
  12,737
  13,629
  14,556
  15,519
  16,522
  17,565
  18,650
  19,781
  20,960
  22,188
  23,470
  24,807
  26,203
  27,661
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
Average production assets, $m
  880
  1,030
  1,193
  1,368
  1,557
  1,757
  1,969
  2,193
  2,429
  2,676
  2,934
  3,204
  3,484
  3,777
  4,081
  4,397
  4,725
  5,066
  5,421
  5,790
  6,173
  6,572
  6,987
  7,419
  7,869
  8,337
  8,826
  9,336
  9,868
  10,423
  11,003
Working capital, $m
  105
  184
  213
  245
  278
  314
  352
  392
  434
  479
  525
  573
  623
  675
  730
  786
  845
  906
  970
  1,036
  1,104
  1,175
  1,250
  1,327
  1,407
  1,491
  1,579
  1,670
  1,765
  1,864
  1,968
Total debt, $m
  1,008
  1,017
  1,263
  1,529
  1,815
  2,118
  2,440
  2,780
  3,137
  3,511
  3,903
  4,311
  4,737
  5,180
  5,641
  6,120
  6,618
  7,135
  7,673
  8,232
  8,813
  9,418
  10,046
  10,701
  11,383
  12,094
  12,835
  13,607
  14,414
  15,255
  16,135
Total liabilities, $m
  1,552
  1,562
  1,808
  2,074
  2,360
  2,663
  2,985
  3,325
  3,682
  4,056
  4,448
  4,856
  5,282
  5,725
  6,186
  6,665
  7,163
  7,680
  8,218
  8,777
  9,358
  9,963
  10,591
  11,246
  11,928
  12,639
  13,380
  14,152
  14,959
  15,800
  16,680
Total equity, $m
  878
  1,028
  1,191
  1,366
  1,554
  1,754
  1,965
  2,189
  2,424
  2,671
  2,928
  3,197
  3,477
  3,769
  4,073
  4,388
  4,716
  5,057
  5,411
  5,779
  6,161
  6,559
  6,973
  7,404
  7,853
  8,321
  8,809
  9,317
  9,848
  10,403
  10,982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,430
  2,590
  2,999
  3,440
  3,914
  4,417
  4,950
  5,514
  6,106
  6,727
  7,376
  8,053
  8,759
  9,494
  10,259
  11,053
  11,879
  12,737
  13,629
  14,556
  15,519
  16,522
  17,564
  18,650
  19,781
  20,960
  22,189
  23,469
  24,807
  26,203
  27,662
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.148
  0.990
  1.060
  1.120
  1.170
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.298
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  247
  -102
  -125
  -150
  -177
  -205
  -236
  -268
  -302
  -338
  -375
  -414
  -455
  -497
  -541
  -587
  -634
  -684
  -735
  -789
  -844
  -902
  -962
  -1,025
  -1,090
  -1,158
  -1,229
  -1,302
  -1,379
  -1,460
  -1,544
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  127
  149
  173
  198
  226
  255
  285
  318
  352
  388
  425
  464
  505
  547
  591
  637
  685
  734
  786
  839
  895
  952
  1,013
  1,075
  1,140
  1,208
  1,279
  1,353
  1,430
  1,511
  1,595
Funds from operations, $m
  419
  47
  48
  48
  49
  49
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  51
  51
  51
  51
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
Cash from operations, $m
  423
  20
  18
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  2
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -53
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -127
  -149
  -173
  -198
  -226
  -255
  -285
  -318
  -352
  -388
  -425
  -464
  -505
  -547
  -591
  -637
  -685
  -734
  -786
  -839
  -895
  -952
  -1,013
  -1,075
  -1,140
  -1,208
  -1,279
  -1,353
  -1,430
  -1,511
New CAPEX, $m
  -136
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -510
  -532
  -555
  -580
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -278
  -312
  -349
  -386
  -426
  -467
  -509
  -554
  -599
  -646
  -694
  -745
  -797
  -851
  -907
  -965
  -1,026
  -1,089
  -1,155
  -1,222
  -1,294
  -1,367
  -1,445
  -1,525
  -1,609
  -1,697
  -1,789
  -1,885
  -1,985
  -2,091
Free cash flow, $m
  296
  -258
  -294
  -332
  -371
  -413
  -455
  -500
  -546
  -593
  -642
  -692
  -745
  -799
  -855
  -914
  -974
  -1,037
  -1,102
  -1,170
  -1,241
  -1,315
  -1,391
  -1,472
  -1,555
  -1,643
  -1,734
  -1,830
  -1,929
  -2,034
  -2,143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -41
  227
  247
  266
  285
  304
  322
  340
  357
  374
  391
  408
  426
  443
  461
  479
  498
  517
  538
  559
  581
  604
  629
  655
  682
  711
  741
  773
  806
  842
  879
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  252
  288
  325
  365
  405
  448
  492
  537
  584
  633
  683
  735
  789
  844
  902
  962
  1,025
  1,089
  1,157
  1,227
  1,300
  1,376
  1,456
  1,539
  1,626
  1,716
  1,811
  1,910
  2,014
  2,123
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  479
  535
  591
  650
  709
  770
  832
  894
  958
  1,024
  1,091
  1,161
  1,232
  1,305
  1,381
  1,460
  1,542
  1,627
  1,716
  1,808
  1,904
  2,005
  2,111
  2,221
  2,337
  2,457
  2,584
  2,716
  2,856
  3,002
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  240
  221
  241
  260
  278
  297
  314
  332
  349
  365
  382
  399
  416
  433
  450
  468
  486
  505
  525
  546
  567
  590
  614
  639
  666
  694
  723
  754
  787
  822
  859
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -177
  -252
  -288
  -325
  -365
  -405
  -448
  -492
  -537
  -584
  -633
  -683
  -735
  -789
  -844
  -902
  -962
  -1,025
  -1,089
  -1,157
  -1,227
  -1,300
  -1,376
  -1,456
  -1,539
  -1,626
  -1,716
  -1,811
  -1,910
  -2,014
  -2,123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -31
  -47
  -66
  -86
  -109
  -134
  -160
  -188
  -219
  -250
  -284
  -319
  -356
  -394
  -434
  -476
  -519
  -564
  -611
  -660
  -710
  -762
  -817
  -873
  -932
  -993
  -1,057
  -1,123
  -1,192
  -1,264
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -30
  -42
  -55
  -68
  -80
  -90
  -99
  -106
  -111
  -114
  -114
  -113
  -109
  -104
  -97
  -89
  -81
  -72
  -62
  -53
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.3
  89.1
  84.3
  79.9
  75.7
  71.9
  68.3
  65.0
  61.9
  59.0
  56.2
  53.7
  51.2
  49.0
  46.8
  44.7
  42.8
  41.0
  39.2
  37.5
  36.0
  34.5
  33.0
  31.6
  30.3
  29.1
  27.9
  26.7
  25.6
  24.6

Norbord Inc. is a Canada-based producer of wood-based panels. The Company is engaged in manufacturing, sales, marketing and distribution of panelboards and related products used in the construction of new homes or the renovation and repair of existing structures. Its geographic segments include North America and Europe. It also produces oriented strand board (OSB), and manufactures particleboard, medium density fiberboard (MDF) and related value-added products. It has over 20 plant locations in the United States, Canada and Europe. In North America, the Company owns over 10 OSB production facilities located in the Southern region of the United States, Western Canada, Quebec, Ontario and Minnesota. In Europe, it operates an OSB production facility, two particleboard mills and one MDF mill in the United Kingdom and one OSB production facility in Belgium. Its OSB products are sold in North America under the brand names, including SolarBord, TruDeck and StableDeck.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Norbord Inc. (OSB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.1%
Total Debt to Equity 114.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 31.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 10.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 25.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Payout Ratio 14.2%

OSB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OSB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Norbord Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Norbord Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OSB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for OSB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Norbord Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Norbord Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OSB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OSB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Norbord Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Norbord Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OSB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OSB are equal to 36.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Norbord Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OSB is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $878 million for Norbord Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.913 million for Norbord Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Norbord Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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Financial statements of OSB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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