Intrinsic value of Norbord Inc. - OSB

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$38.91

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$38.91

 
Intrinsic value

$7.48

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OSB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.02
  16.00
  14.90
  13.91
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.26
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
Revenue, $m
  2,386
  2,768
  3,180
  3,623
  4,094
  4,594
  5,122
  5,678
  6,261
  6,870
  7,506
  8,170
  8,860
  9,578
  10,325
  11,101
  11,908
  12,746
  13,617
  14,523
  15,465
  16,445
  17,465
  18,527
  19,634
  20,788
  21,992
  23,248
  24,559
  25,928
  27,359
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,818
  3,237
  3,688
  4,168
  4,677
  5,215
  5,780
  6,373
  6,994
  7,642
  8,317
  9,020
  9,751
  10,511
  11,301
  12,122
  12,975
  13,862
  14,784
  15,743
  16,741
  17,779
  18,861
  19,988
  21,162
  22,388
  23,666
  25,001
  26,395
  27,851
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,986
  2,818
  3,237
  3,688
  4,168
  4,677
  5,215
  5,780
  6,373
  6,994
  7,642
  8,317
  9,020
  9,751
  10,511
  11,301
  12,122
  12,975
  13,862
  14,784
  15,743
  16,741
  17,779
  18,861
  19,988
  21,162
  22,388
  23,666
  25,001
  26,395
  27,851
Operating income, $m
  400
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -102
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -159
  -172
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -374
  -396
  -418
  -442
  -467
  -492
EBITDA, $m
  527
  98
  113
  129
  145
  163
  182
  201
  222
  244
  266
  290
  314
  340
  366
  394
  422
  452
  483
  515
  549
  583
  620
  657
  697
  738
  780
  825
  871
  920
  971
Interest expense (income), $m
  68
  52
  66
  81
  98
  115
  134
  153
  174
  195
  218
  241
  266
  291
  318
  345
  374
  404
  435
  467
  500
  535
  571
  609
  648
  689
  731
  776
  822
  871
  921
Earnings before tax, $m
  330
  -102
  -123
  -147
  -171
  -198
  -226
  -255
  -286
  -319
  -353
  -388
  -425
  -464
  -504
  -545
  -588
  -633
  -680
  -728
  -779
  -831
  -886
  -942
  -1,001
  -1,063
  -1,127
  -1,194
  -1,264
  -1,337
  -1,414
Tax expense, $m
  83
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  247
  -102
  -123
  -147
  -171
  -198
  -226
  -255
  -286
  -319
  -353
  -388
  -425
  -464
  -504
  -545
  -588
  -633
  -680
  -728
  -779
  -831
  -886
  -942
  -1,001
  -1,063
  -1,127
  -1,194
  -1,264
  -1,337
  -1,414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  218
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,431
  2,567
  2,950
  3,360
  3,798
  4,262
  4,752
  5,267
  5,808
  6,373
  6,963
  7,579
  8,219
  8,885
  9,578
  10,298
  11,046
  11,824
  12,632
  13,472
  14,346
  15,255
  16,201
  17,187
  18,213
  19,284
  20,400
  21,565
  22,782
  24,052
  25,379
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,213
  2,567
  2,950
  3,360
  3,798
  4,262
  4,752
  5,267
  5,808
  6,373
  6,963
  7,579
  8,219
  8,885
  9,578
  10,298
  11,046
  11,824
  12,632
  13,472
  14,346
  15,255
  16,201
  17,187
  18,213
  19,284
  20,400
  21,565
  22,782
  24,052
  25,379
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
Average production assets, $m
  880
  1,021
  1,173
  1,337
  1,511
  1,695
  1,890
  2,095
  2,310
  2,535
  2,770
  3,015
  3,269
  3,534
  3,810
  4,096
  4,394
  4,703
  5,025
  5,359
  5,706
  6,068
  6,444
  6,837
  7,245
  7,671
  8,115
  8,578
  9,062
  9,567
  10,095
Working capital, $m
  105
  183
  210
  239
  270
  303
  338
  375
  413
  453
  495
  539
  585
  632
  681
  733
  786
  841
  899
  958
  1,021
  1,085
  1,153
  1,223
  1,296
  1,372
  1,451
  1,534
  1,621
  1,711
  1,806
Total debt, $m
  1,008
  1,003
  1,234
  1,481
  1,745
  2,025
  2,320
  2,631
  2,957
  3,298
  3,654
  4,025
  4,411
  4,813
  5,231
  5,665
  6,116
  6,585
  7,072
  7,579
  8,105
  8,654
  9,224
  9,819
  10,438
  11,083
  11,756
  12,459
  13,192
  13,958
  14,759
Total liabilities, $m
  1,552
  1,548
  1,779
  2,026
  2,290
  2,570
  2,865
  3,176
  3,502
  3,843
  4,199
  4,570
  4,956
  5,358
  5,776
  6,210
  6,661
  7,130
  7,617
  8,124
  8,650
  9,199
  9,769
  10,364
  10,983
  11,628
  12,301
  13,004
  13,737
  14,503
  15,304
Total equity, $m
  878
  1,019
  1,171
  1,334
  1,508
  1,692
  1,886
  2,091
  2,306
  2,530
  2,764
  3,009
  3,263
  3,527
  3,802
  4,088
  4,385
  4,694
  5,015
  5,348
  5,695
  6,056
  6,432
  6,823
  7,231
  7,656
  8,099
  8,561
  9,044
  9,549
  10,076
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,430
  2,567
  2,950
  3,360
  3,798
  4,262
  4,751
  5,267
  5,808
  6,373
  6,963
  7,579
  8,219
  8,885
  9,578
  10,298
  11,046
  11,824
  12,632
  13,472
  14,345
  15,255
  16,201
  17,187
  18,214
  19,284
  20,400
  21,565
  22,781
  24,052
  25,380
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.148
  0.980
  1.050
  1.110
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.298
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397
  0.397

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  247
  -102
  -123
  -147
  -171
  -198
  -226
  -255
  -286
  -319
  -353
  -388
  -425
  -464
  -504
  -545
  -588
  -633
  -680
  -728
  -779
  -831
  -886
  -942
  -1,001
  -1,063
  -1,127
  -1,194
  -1,264
  -1,337
  -1,414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  127
  148
  170
  194
  219
  246
  274
  304
  335
  367
  401
  437
  474
  512
  552
  594
  637
  682
  728
  777
  827
  879
  934
  991
  1,050
  1,112
  1,176
  1,243
  1,313
  1,387
  1,463
Funds from operations, $m
  419
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  48
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  94
Cash from operations, $m
  423
  876
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -127
  -148
  -170
  -194
  -219
  -246
  -274
  -304
  -335
  -367
  -401
  -437
  -474
  -512
  -552
  -594
  -637
  -682
  -728
  -777
  -827
  -879
  -934
  -991
  -1,050
  -1,112
  -1,176
  -1,243
  -1,313
  -1,387
New CAPEX, $m
  -136
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -174
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -286
  -298
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -392
  -408
  -426
  -444
  -463
  -484
  -505
  -528
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -269
  -300
  -333
  -368
  -404
  -441
  -479
  -519
  -560
  -602
  -646
  -692
  -739
  -788
  -838
  -892
  -946
  -1,003
  -1,062
  -1,125
  -1,189
  -1,255
  -1,326
  -1,399
  -1,476
  -1,556
  -1,639
  -1,727
  -1,818
  -1,915
Free cash flow, $m
  296
  607
  -281
  -315
  -351
  -389
  -427
  -467
  -509
  -551
  -596
  -641
  -689
  -738
  -788
  -841
  -896
  -953
  -1,012
  -1,074
  -1,138
  -1,205
  -1,275
  -1,348
  -1,424
  -1,503
  -1,587
  -1,674
  -1,765
  -1,860
  -1,960
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -41
  213
  231
  247
  264
  280
  295
  311
  326
  341
  356
  371
  386
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  487
  507
  527
  548
  571
  594
  619
  646
  673
  703
  733
  766
  800
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  202
  231
  261
  293
  326
  361
  397
  435
  474
  515
  557
  600
  646
  693
  742
  793
  846
  901
  958
  1,018
  1,080
  1,145
  1,212
  1,283
  1,357
  1,434
  1,514
  1,598
  1,686
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  213
  433
  478
  525
  573
  621
  672
  723
  776
  830
  886
  943
  1,002
  1,064
  1,127
  1,193
  1,262
  1,333
  1,408
  1,485
  1,566
  1,651
  1,739
  1,831
  1,929
  2,030
  2,137
  2,247
  2,364
  2,486
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  240
  820
  -50
  -68
  -88
  -109
  -132
  -157
  -183
  -210
  -240
  -270
  -302
  -336
  -371
  -407
  -445
  -484
  -525
  -567
  -611
  -657
  -704
  -753
  -805
  -858
  -913
  -971
  -1,031
  -1,094
  -1,159
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -177
  -141
  -152
  -163
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -391
  -408
  -425
  -443
  -463
  -483
  -504
  -527
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  679
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  645
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  95.1
  90.4
  86.0
  81.8
  77.9
  74.2
  70.7
  67.3
  64.2
  61.2
  58.4
  55.7
  53.2
  50.7
  48.4
  46.2
  44.2
  42.2
  40.3
  38.5
  36.8
  35.1
  33.6
  32.1
  30.7
  29.3
  28.0
  26.8
  25.6

Norbord Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, sells, markets, and distributes wood-based panels for retail chains, contractor supply yards, and industrial customers primarily in North America and Europe. The company offers oriented strand boards for use in sheathing, flooring, and roofing in home construction applications; particleboards that are used in flooring and other construction applications; and medium density fibreboards for use in cabinet doors, mouldings, and interior wall paneling applications, as well as related value-added products for use in the construction of new homes, and renovation and repair of existing structures. It markets its products under the Durastrand pointSIX, Pinnacle, Stabledge, pointSIX and Truflor, SteadiTred, QuakeZone, Tallwall, Trubord and Windstorm, SolarBord, SterlingOSB, Caberwood, and Conti and Caberboard brands. The company was formerly known as Nexfor Inc. and changed its name to Norbord Inc. in June 2004. Norbord Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Norbord Inc. (OSB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.5
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.1%
Total Debt to Equity 114.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 31.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 10.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 25.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Payout Ratio 14.2%

OSB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OSB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2386 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Norbord Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Norbord Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OSB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for OSB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Norbord Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Norbord Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OSB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OSB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Norbord Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Norbord Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OSB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OSB are equal to 36.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Norbord Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OSB is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $878 million for Norbord Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.207 million for Norbord Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Norbord Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.


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