Intrinsic value of Open Text Corporation - OTEX

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$47.27

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$47.27

 
Intrinsic value

$93.41

 
Up/down potential

+98%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OTEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.48
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  2,465
  2,872
  3,313
  3,787
  4,294
  4,832
  5,402
  6,002
  6,632
  7,292
  7,982
  8,701
  9,450
  10,229
  11,040
  11,882
  12,758
  13,668
  14,613
  15,596
  16,618
  17,681
  18,788
  19,940
  21,140
  22,391
  23,696
  25,057
  26,477
  27,960
  29,510
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,280
  2,582
  2,906
  3,253
  3,622
  4,012
  4,423
  4,854
  5,306
  5,778
  5,956
  6,469
  7,002
  7,557
  8,134
  8,733
  9,356
  10,003
  10,676
  11,376
  12,104
  12,861
  13,650
  14,471
  15,328
  16,221
  17,152
  18,124
  19,140
  20,200
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,967
  2,280
  2,582
  2,906
  3,253
  3,622
  4,012
  4,423
  4,854
  5,306
  5,778
  5,956
  6,469
  7,002
  7,557
  8,134
  8,733
  9,356
  10,003
  10,676
  11,376
  12,104
  12,861
  13,650
  14,471
  15,328
  16,221
  17,152
  18,124
  19,140
  20,200
Operating income, $m
  498
  592
  731
  880
  1,040
  1,210
  1,390
  1,579
  1,778
  1,986
  2,204
  2,745
  2,981
  3,227
  3,483
  3,748
  4,025
  4,312
  4,610
  4,920
  5,242
  5,578
  5,927
  6,290
  6,669
  7,064
  7,475
  7,904
  8,353
  8,820
  9,309
EBITDA, $m
  825
  1,009
  1,164
  1,331
  1,509
  1,698
  1,898
  2,109
  2,331
  2,563
  2,805
  3,058
  3,321
  3,595
  3,880
  4,176
  4,484
  4,803
  5,136
  5,481
  5,840
  6,214
  6,603
  7,008
  7,430
  7,869
  8,328
  8,806
  9,305
  9,827
  10,371
Interest expense (income), $m
  97
  113
  140
  170
  202
  236
  273
  311
  352
  395
  439
  486
  535
  585
  638
  693
  750
  809
  871
  935
  1,001
  1,071
  1,143
  1,218
  1,296
  1,377
  1,461
  1,550
  1,642
  1,738
  1,838
Earnings before tax, $m
  393
  479
  591
  710
  838
  974
  1,117
  1,268
  1,426
  1,592
  1,764
  2,259
  2,446
  2,642
  2,845
  3,055
  3,275
  3,502
  3,739
  3,985
  4,241
  4,507
  4,784
  5,073
  5,373
  5,687
  6,014
  6,355
  6,711
  7,082
  7,471
Tax expense, $m
  9
  129
  159
  192
  226
  263
  302
  342
  385
  430
  476
  610
  661
  713
  768
  825
  884
  946
  1,010
  1,076
  1,145
  1,217
  1,292
  1,370
  1,451
  1,535
  1,624
  1,716
  1,812
  1,912
  2,017
Net income, $m
  384
  350
  431
  519
  612
  711
  815
  926
  1,041
  1,162
  1,288
  1,649
  1,786
  1,928
  2,077
  2,230
  2,390
  2,557
  2,729
  2,909
  3,096
  3,290
  3,493
  3,703
  3,923
  4,151
  4,390
  4,639
  4,899
  5,170
  5,454

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,750
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,964
  6,071
  7,003
  8,006
  9,077
  10,216
  11,420
  12,689
  14,022
  15,417
  16,875
  18,395
  19,979
  21,627
  23,340
  25,121
  26,972
  28,896
  30,895
  32,973
  35,133
  37,381
  39,721
  42,157
  44,694
  47,339
  50,097
  52,974
  55,977
  59,112
  62,388
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,214
  6,071
  7,003
  8,006
  9,077
  10,216
  11,420
  12,689
  14,022
  15,417
  16,875
  18,395
  19,979
  21,627
  23,340
  25,121
  26,972
  28,896
  30,895
  32,973
  35,133
  37,381
  39,721
  42,157
  44,694
  47,339
  50,097
  52,974
  55,977
  59,112
  62,388
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
Average production assets, $m
  1,128
  1,312
  1,514
  1,731
  1,962
  2,208
  2,469
  2,743
  3,031
  3,333
  3,648
  3,976
  4,319
  4,675
  5,045
  5,430
  5,830
  6,246
  6,678
  7,127
  7,594
  8,080
  8,586
  9,113
  9,661
  10,233
  10,829
  11,451
  12,100
  12,778
  13,486
Working capital, $m
  1,352
  -451
  -520
  -595
  -674
  -759
  -848
  -942
  -1,041
  -1,145
  -1,253
  -1,366
  -1,484
  -1,606
  -1,733
  -1,866
  -2,003
  -2,146
  -2,294
  -2,449
  -2,609
  -2,776
  -2,950
  -3,131
  -3,319
  -3,515
  -3,720
  -3,934
  -4,157
  -4,390
  -4,633
Total debt, $m
  2,899
  3,593
  4,358
  5,181
  6,060
  6,995
  7,984
  9,026
  10,120
  11,265
  12,462
  13,711
  15,011
  16,364
  17,770
  19,233
  20,752
  22,331
  23,972
  25,678
  27,453
  29,298
  31,219
  33,219
  35,302
  37,473
  39,737
  42,099
  44,565
  47,139
  49,829
Total liabilities, $m
  4,290
  4,985
  5,750
  6,573
  7,452
  8,387
  9,376
  10,418
  11,512
  12,657
  13,854
  15,103
  16,403
  17,756
  19,162
  20,625
  22,144
  23,723
  25,364
  27,070
  28,845
  30,690
  32,611
  34,611
  36,694
  38,865
  41,129
  43,491
  45,957
  48,531
  51,221
Total equity, $m
  2,673
  1,087
  1,254
  1,433
  1,625
  1,829
  2,044
  2,271
  2,510
  2,760
  3,021
  3,293
  3,576
  3,871
  4,178
  4,497
  4,828
  5,172
  5,530
  5,902
  6,289
  6,691
  7,110
  7,546
  8,000
  8,474
  8,967
  9,482
  10,020
  10,581
  11,167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,963
  6,072
  7,004
  8,006
  9,077
  10,216
  11,420
  12,689
  14,022
  15,417
  16,875
  18,396
  19,979
  21,627
  23,340
  25,122
  26,972
  28,895
  30,894
  32,972
  35,134
  37,381
  39,721
  42,157
  44,694
  47,339
  50,096
  52,973
  55,977
  59,112
  62,388
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.085
  3.310
  3.480
  3.620
  3.730
  3.830
  3.910
  3.970
  4.030
  4.080
  4.130
  4.160
  4.200
  4.230
  4.250
  4.280
  4.300
  4.320
  4.330
  4.350
  4.370
  4.380
  4.390
  4.400
  4.410
  4.420
  4.430
  4.440
  4.450
  4.460
  4.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.177
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179
  0.179

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  384
  350
  431
  519
  612
  711
  815
  926
  1,041
  1,162
  1,288
  1,649
  1,786
  1,928
  2,077
  2,230
  2,390
  2,557
  2,729
  2,909
  3,096
  3,290
  3,493
  3,703
  3,923
  4,151
  4,390
  4,639
  4,899
  5,170
  5,454
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  327
  418
  433
  450
  469
  488
  509
  530
  553
  577
  601
  313
  340
  368
  397
  428
  459
  492
  526
  561
  598
  636
  676
  718
  761
  806
  853
  902
  953
  1,006
  1,062
Funds from operations, $m
  720
  767
  865
  969
  1,081
  1,199
  1,324
  1,456
  1,594
  1,738
  1,889
  1,962
  2,126
  2,296
  2,474
  2,658
  2,850
  3,049
  3,255
  3,470
  3,694
  3,927
  4,169
  4,421
  4,683
  4,957
  5,243
  5,541
  5,852
  6,176
  6,516
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
Cash from operations, $m
  710
  825
  934
  1,044
  1,160
  1,284
  1,414
  1,550
  1,693
  1,842
  1,998
  2,075
  2,244
  2,419
  2,601
  2,790
  2,987
  3,191
  3,404
  3,625
  3,854
  4,093
  4,342
  4,602
  4,872
  5,154
  5,447
  5,754
  6,075
  6,409
  6,759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -89
  -103
  -119
  -136
  -154
  -174
  -194
  -216
  -239
  -262
  -287
  -313
  -340
  -368
  -397
  -428
  -459
  -492
  -526
  -561
  -598
  -636
  -676
  -718
  -761
  -806
  -853
  -902
  -953
  -1,006
New CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -185
  -201
  -217
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -432
  -449
  -467
  -486
  -506
  -527
  -549
  -572
  -596
  -622
  -649
  -678
  -708
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -488
  -274
  -304
  -336
  -368
  -400
  -434
  -468
  -504
  -541
  -577
  -616
  -655
  -696
  -738
  -782
  -828
  -875
  -924
  -975
  -1,028
  -1,084
  -1,142
  -1,203
  -1,267
  -1,333
  -1,402
  -1,475
  -1,551
  -1,631
  -1,714
Free cash flow, $m
  222
  551
  629
  708
  792
  883
  979
  1,081
  1,189
  1,302
  1,420
  1,459
  1,588
  1,723
  1,863
  2,008
  2,159
  2,316
  2,480
  2,650
  2,826
  3,010
  3,200
  3,399
  3,606
  3,821
  4,046
  4,280
  4,524
  4,779
  5,045
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  800
  705
  765
  823
  880
  935
  989
  1,042
  1,094
  1,145
  1,197
  1,248
  1,300
  1,353
  1,407
  1,462
  1,520
  1,579
  1,641
  1,706
  1,774
  1,846
  1,921
  2,000
  2,083
  2,171
  2,264
  2,362
  2,465
  2,574
  2,689
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  715
  705
  765
  823
  880
  935
  989
  1,042
  1,094
  1,145
  1,197
  1,248
  1,300
  1,353
  1,407
  1,462
  1,520
  1,579
  1,641
  1,706
  1,774
  1,846
  1,921
  2,000
  2,083
  2,171
  2,264
  2,362
  2,465
  2,574
  2,689
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  923
  1,256
  1,394
  1,531
  1,672
  1,818
  1,968
  2,123
  2,283
  2,447
  2,617
  2,707
  2,888
  3,075
  3,269
  3,470
  3,679
  3,896
  4,121
  4,356
  4,600
  4,855
  5,121
  5,399
  5,689
  5,992
  6,310
  6,642
  6,989
  7,353
  7,734
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -201
  -153
  -167
  -179
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -419
  -436
  -454
  -473
  -494
  -515
  -538
  -561
  -586
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,739
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,842
  1,227
  1,351
  1,480
  1,614
  1,753
  1,896
  2,044
  2,198
  2,356
  2,435
  2,605
  2,781
  2,963
  3,151
  3,348
  3,551
  3,763
  3,984
  4,213
  4,453
  4,702
  4,963
  5,235
  5,519
  5,816
  6,127
  6,452
  6,792
  7,148
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2,725
  1,124
  1,176
  1,219
  1,251
  1,272
  1,281
  1,278
  1,262
  1,235
  1,156
  1,112
  1,057
  995
  925
  851
  773
  693
  613
  535
  461
  390
  325
  267
  215
  170
  131
  100
  74
  54
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Open Text Corporation (OTEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.9
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 159
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 108%
Total Debt to Equity 108.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 14.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.3%
EBITDA Margin 33.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Net Profit Margin 15.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Effective Tax Rate 2.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Payout Ratio 34.9%

OTEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OTEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2465 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Open Text Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Open Text Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OTEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OTEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Open Text Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Open Text Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OTEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OTEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Open Text Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Open Text Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OTEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OTEX are equal to 45.7%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Open Text Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OTEX is equal to -15.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2673 million for Open Text Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 265.834 million for Open Text Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Open Text Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.6 billion.


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Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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