Intrinsic value of Pan American Silver Corp. - PAAS

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$24.41

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.41

 
Intrinsic value

$2.99

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PAAS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.80
  17.30
  16.07
  14.96
  13.97
  13.07
  12.26
  11.54
  10.88
  10.29
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.13
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  1,047
  1,228
  1,425
  1,639
  1,868
  2,112
  2,371
  2,644
  2,932
  3,234
  3,550
  3,879
  4,223
  4,581
  4,953
  5,340
  5,743
  6,161
  6,595
  7,046
  7,516
  8,004
  8,512
  9,041
  9,591
  10,165
  10,763
  11,387
  12,037
  12,717
  13,426
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,646
  1,910
  2,196
  2,502
  2,829
  3,176
  3,543
  3,928
  4,333
  4,756
  5,197
  5,657
  6,137
  6,635
  7,154
  7,693
  8,253
  8,835
  9,440
  10,068
  10,722
  11,403
  12,111
  12,849
  13,617
  14,418
  15,254
  16,125
  17,036
  17,986
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  798
  1,646
  1,910
  2,196
  2,502
  2,829
  3,176
  3,543
  3,928
  4,333
  4,756
  5,197
  5,657
  6,137
  6,635
  7,154
  7,693
  8,253
  8,835
  9,440
  10,068
  10,722
  11,403
  12,111
  12,849
  13,617
  14,418
  15,254
  16,125
  17,036
  17,986
Operating income, $m
  249
  -417
  -485
  -557
  -635
  -718
  -806
  -898
  -996
  -1,099
  -1,206
  -1,318
  -1,434
  -1,556
  -1,682
  -1,814
  -1,950
  -2,092
  -2,240
  -2,393
  -2,553
  -2,718
  -2,891
  -3,070
  -3,257
  -3,452
  -3,655
  -3,867
  -4,088
  -4,319
  -4,560
EBITDA, $m
  406
  -233
  -271
  -311
  -355
  -401
  -450
  -502
  -557
  -614
  -674
  -736
  -802
  -870
  -940
  -1,014
  -1,090
  -1,169
  -1,252
  -1,338
  -1,427
  -1,519
  -1,616
  -1,716
  -1,821
  -1,929
  -2,043
  -2,161
  -2,285
  -2,414
  -2,548
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  2
  7
  13
  19
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  254
  271
  288
  306
  324
Earnings before tax, $m
  238
  -420
  -492
  -570
  -653
  -743
  -837
  -937
  -1,043
  -1,153
  -1,269
  -1,389
  -1,515
  -1,646
  -1,782
  -1,924
  -2,071
  -2,224
  -2,383
  -2,549
  -2,720
  -2,899
  -3,085
  -3,279
  -3,480
  -3,690
  -3,909
  -4,138
  -4,376
  -4,625
  -4,884
Tax expense, $m
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  135
  -420
  -492
  -570
  -653
  -743
  -837
  -937
  -1,043
  -1,153
  -1,269
  -1,389
  -1,515
  -1,646
  -1,782
  -1,924
  -2,071
  -2,224
  -2,383
  -2,549
  -2,720
  -2,899
  -3,085
  -3,279
  -3,480
  -3,690
  -3,909
  -4,138
  -4,376
  -4,625
  -4,884

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  294
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,565
  2,664
  3,092
  3,555
  4,051
  4,581
  5,143
  5,736
  6,360
  7,015
  7,700
  8,415
  9,161
  9,937
  10,745
  11,584
  12,457
  13,363
  14,306
  15,285
  16,303
  17,362
  18,464
  19,611
  20,805
  22,050
  23,347
  24,700
  26,111
  27,585
  29,124
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,271
  2,664
  3,092
  3,555
  4,051
  4,581
  5,143
  5,736
  6,360
  7,015
  7,700
  8,415
  9,161
  9,937
  10,745
  11,584
  12,457
  13,363
  14,306
  15,285
  16,303
  17,362
  18,464
  19,611
  20,805
  22,050
  23,347
  24,700
  26,111
  27,585
  29,124
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
  0.461
Average production assets, $m
  1,600
  1,877
  2,178
  2,504
  2,854
  3,227
  3,622
  4,040
  4,480
  4,941
  5,424
  5,928
  6,453
  7,000
  7,569
  8,160
  8,775
  9,413
  10,077
  10,767
  11,484
  12,230
  13,006
  13,814
  14,655
  15,532
  16,446
  17,399
  18,393
  19,431
  20,515
Working capital, $m
  579
  340
  395
  454
  517
  585
  657
  732
  812
  896
  983
  1,075
  1,170
  1,269
  1,372
  1,479
  1,591
  1,706
  1,827
  1,952
  2,082
  2,217
  2,358
  2,504
  2,657
  2,816
  2,981
  3,154
  3,334
  3,523
  3,719
Total debt, $m
  59
  170
  296
  433
  580
  737
  903
  1,079
  1,264
  1,457
  1,660
  1,872
  2,093
  2,322
  2,561
  2,810
  3,068
  3,337
  3,615
  3,905
  4,207
  4,520
  4,846
  5,186
  5,539
  5,908
  6,292
  6,692
  7,110
  7,546
  8,002
Total liabilities, $m
  678
  789
  915
  1,052
  1,199
  1,356
  1,522
  1,698
  1,883
  2,076
  2,279
  2,491
  2,712
  2,941
  3,180
  3,429
  3,687
  3,956
  4,234
  4,524
  4,826
  5,139
  5,465
  5,805
  6,158
  6,527
  6,911
  7,311
  7,729
  8,165
  8,621
Total equity, $m
  1,887
  1,875
  2,177
  2,503
  2,852
  3,225
  3,620
  4,038
  4,478
  4,938
  5,421
  5,924
  6,449
  6,996
  7,564
  8,155
  8,769
  9,408
  10,071
  10,761
  11,478
  12,223
  12,999
  13,806
  14,647
  15,523
  16,436
  17,389
  18,382
  19,420
  20,503
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,565
  2,664
  3,092
  3,555
  4,051
  4,581
  5,142
  5,736
  6,361
  7,014
  7,700
  8,415
  9,161
  9,937
  10,744
  11,584
  12,456
  13,364
  14,305
  15,285
  16,304
  17,362
  18,464
  19,611
  20,805
  22,050
  23,347
  24,700
  26,111
  27,585
  29,124
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.031
  0.090
  0.140
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.701
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  135
  -420
  -492
  -570
  -653
  -743
  -837
  -937
  -1,043
  -1,153
  -1,269
  -1,389
  -1,515
  -1,646
  -1,782
  -1,924
  -2,071
  -2,224
  -2,383
  -2,549
  -2,720
  -2,899
  -3,085
  -3,279
  -3,480
  -3,690
  -3,909
  -4,138
  -4,376
  -4,625
  -4,884
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  157
  184
  214
  246
  280
  317
  356
  397
  440
  485
  532
  581
  633
  686
  742
  800
  860
  923
  988
  1,056
  1,126
  1,199
  1,275
  1,354
  1,437
  1,523
  1,612
  1,706
  1,803
  1,905
  2,011
Funds from operations, $m
  260
  -235
  -278
  -324
  -373
  -426
  -482
  -541
  -603
  -668
  -736
  -808
  -882
  -960
  -1,040
  -1,124
  -1,211
  -1,301
  -1,395
  -1,493
  -1,595
  -1,700
  -1,810
  -1,924
  -2,044
  -2,168
  -2,297
  -2,432
  -2,573
  -2,720
  -2,873
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  50
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
Cash from operations, $m
  290
  -234
  -333
  -383
  -437
  -493
  -553
  -617
  -683
  -752
  -824
  -899
  -977
  -1,059
  -1,143
  -1,231
  -1,322
  -1,417
  -1,516
  -1,618
  -1,725
  -1,835
  -1,951
  -2,071
  -2,196
  -2,327
  -2,463
  -2,605
  -2,753
  -2,908
  -3,069
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -157
  -184
  -214
  -245
  -280
  -316
  -355
  -396
  -439
  -484
  -532
  -581
  -633
  -686
  -742
  -800
  -860
  -923
  -988
  -1,056
  -1,126
  -1,199
  -1,275
  -1,354
  -1,437
  -1,523
  -1,612
  -1,706
  -1,803
  -1,905
New CAPEX, $m
  -274
  -277
  -302
  -326
  -350
  -373
  -396
  -418
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -569
  -591
  -615
  -639
  -664
  -690
  -717
  -746
  -776
  -808
  -841
  -877
  -914
  -953
  -994
  -1,038
  -1,084
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -189
  -434
  -486
  -540
  -595
  -653
  -712
  -773
  -836
  -900
  -967
  -1,036
  -1,106
  -1,180
  -1,255
  -1,333
  -1,415
  -1,499
  -1,587
  -1,678
  -1,773
  -1,872
  -1,975
  -2,083
  -2,195
  -2,314
  -2,437
  -2,565
  -2,700
  -2,841
  -2,989
Free cash flow, $m
  101
  -667
  -818
  -922
  -1,032
  -1,146
  -1,265
  -1,390
  -1,518
  -1,652
  -1,791
  -1,935
  -2,084
  -2,238
  -2,398
  -2,564
  -2,737
  -2,916
  -3,102
  -3,296
  -3,497
  -3,707
  -3,926
  -4,154
  -4,392
  -4,640
  -4,899
  -5,170
  -5,453
  -5,749
  -6,059
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -26
  116
  127
  137
  147
  157
  166
  176
  185
  194
  203
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  368
  384
  400
  418
  436
  456
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  540
  993
  1,111
  1,234
  1,362
  1,495
  1,632
  1,773
  1,919
  2,070
  2,226
  2,388
  2,555
  2,728
  2,907
  3,093
  3,286
  3,487
  3,695
  3,913
  4,139
  4,375
  4,622
  4,879
  5,148
  5,428
  5,722
  6,029
  6,350
  6,687
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -28
  656
  1,120
  1,248
  1,381
  1,519
  1,661
  1,808
  1,958
  2,113
  2,273
  2,438
  2,609
  2,785
  2,967
  3,156
  3,351
  3,554
  3,766
  3,985
  4,214
  4,452
  4,701
  4,961
  5,233
  5,516
  5,812
  6,122
  6,447
  6,786
  7,143
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  -551
  -691
  -785
  -885
  -989
  -1,099
  -1,214
  -1,334
  -1,458
  -1,588
  -1,723
  -1,863
  -2,008
  -2,159
  -2,316
  -2,479
  -2,648
  -2,823
  -3,006
  -3,196
  -3,394
  -3,600
  -3,814
  -4,038
  -4,272
  -4,515
  -4,769
  -5,035
  -5,313
  -5,603
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -134
  -277
  -301
  -326
  -350
  -373
  -395
  -418
  -439
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -525
  -546
  -569
  -591
  -614
  -638
  -663
  -689
  -717
  -746
  -776
  -807
  -841
  -876
  -913
  -952
  -994
  -1,037
  -1,084
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  289
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.8
  68.1
  54.4
  43.8
  35.5
  28.9
  23.6
  19.4
  16.1
  13.3
  11.1
  9.2
  7.7
  6.5
  5.5
  4.6
  3.9
  3.3
  2.8
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.2
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.5
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 232.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 38.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.9%
Total Debt to Equity 3.1%
Interest Coverage 80
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Return On Equity 7.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
EBITDA Margin 38%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.8%
Operating Margin 23.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Effective Tax Rate 42%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Payout Ratio 7.4%

PAAS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PAAS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1047 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pan American Silver Corp.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pan American Silver Corp.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PAAS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PAAS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pan American Silver Corp., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pan American Silver Corp..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PAAS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 134%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PAAS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Pan American Silver Corp..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pan American Silver Corp.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PAAS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PAAS are equal to 152.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pan American Silver Corp. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PAAS is equal to 27.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1887 million for Pan American Silver Corp. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 157.275 million for Pan American Silver Corp. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pan American Silver Corp. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.


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Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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